Nonlinear dynamics in high‐frequency intraday financial data: Evidence for the UK long gilt futures market

Recent research investigating the properties of high‐frequency financial data has suggested that the stochastic nonlinearity widely present in such data may be characterized by heterogeneous components in conditional volatility, and nonlinear dependence of threshold autoregressive form due to market frictions. This article tests for the presence of such effects in intraday long gilt futures returns on the UK LIFFE market. Tests against the null of linearity indicate the significance of smooth transition autoregressive nonlinearities in such returns at the 5‐min frequency, which entails a first‐order autoregressive process with switching intercept. This nonlinear structure is robust to the presence of asymmetric and component structures in conditional variance, and consistent with the existence of heterogeneous traders facing different levels of transaction costs, noise trader risk, or capital constraints. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1037–1057, 2002     

Time‐varying jump risk premia in stock index futures returns

This study tests the presence of time‐varying risk premia associated with extreme news events or jumps in stock index futures return. The model allows for a dynamic jump component with autoregressive jump intensity, long‐range dependence in volatility dynamics, and a volatility in mean structure separately for the normal and extreme news events. The results show significant jump risk premia in four stock market index futures returns including the DAX, FTSE, Nikkei, and S&P500 indices. Our results are robust to various specifications of conditional variance including the plain GARCH, component GARCH, and Fractionally Integrated GARCH models. We also find the time‐varying risk premium associated with normal news events is not significant across all indices. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:639–659, 2012     

Long memory models for daily and high frequency commodity futures returns

The volatility of daily futures returns for six important commodities are found to be well described as FIGARCH, fractionally integrated processes, whereas the mean returns exhibit very small departures from the martingale difference property. Several years of high frequency intraday commodity futures returns are also found to have very similar long memory in volatility features as the daily returns. Semiparametric local Whittle estimation of the long memory parameter in absolute returns also finds very significant long memory features. Estimating the long memory parameter across many different data sampling frequencies provides consistent estimates of the long memory parameter, suggesting that the series are self‐similar. The results have important implications for empirical work using commodity futures price data. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:643–668, 2007     

The realized volatility of FTSE‐100 futures prices

Five‐minute returns from FTSE‐100 index futures contracts are used to obtain accurate estimates of daily index volatility from January 1986 to December 1998. These realized volatility measures are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and autocorrelation properties of FTSE‐100 volatility. The distribution of volatility measured daily is similar to lognormal while the volatility time series has persistent positive autocorrelation that displays long‐memory effects. The distribution of daily returns standardized using the measures of realized volatility is shown to be close to normal, unlike the unconditional distribution. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:627–648, 2002     

Asymmetric pricing of implied systematic volatility in the cross‐section of expected returns

Assuming a symmetric relation between returns and innovations in implied market volatility, Ang, A., Hodrick, R., Xing, Y., and Zhang, X. (2006) find that sensitivities to changes in implied market volatility have a cross‐sectional effect on firm returns. Dennis, P., Mayhew, S., and Stivers, C. (2006), however, find an asymmetric relation between firm‐level returns and implied market volatility innovations. We incorporate this asymmetry into the cross‐sectional relation between sensitivity to volatility innovations and returns. Using both portfolio sorting and firm‐level regressions, we find that sensitivity to VIX innovations is negatively related to returns when volatility is rising, but is unrelated when it is falling. The negative relation is robust to controls for other variables, suggesting only the increase in implied market volatility is a priced risk factor. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:34–54, 2011     

Predicting financial volatility: High‐frequency time‐series forecasts vis‐à‐vis implied volatility

Recent evidence suggests option implied volatilities provide better forecasts of financial volatility than time‐series models based on historical daily returns. In this study both the measurement and the forecasting of financial volatility is improved using high‐frequency data and long memory modeling, the latest proposed method to model volatility. This is the first study to extract results for three separate asset classes, equity, foreign exchange, and commodities. The results for the S&P 500, YEN/USD, and Light, Sweet Crude Oil provide a robust indication that volatility forecasts based on historical intraday returns do provide good volatility forecasts that can compete with and even outperform implied volatility. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1005–1028, 2004     

Turn‐of‐the‐month and intramonth effects: Explanation from the important macroeconomic news announcements

This study provides a new and economically plausible explanation for turn‐of‐the‐month and intramonth anomalies. It is suggested that these anomalies arise from clustered information, namely from important macroeconomic news announcements, which are released systematically at a certain point each month. It is verified that both anomalies exist in SP100 returns. However, once the effect of macroeconomic news announcements has been taken into account, these anomalies disappear. A measure is proposed which uses information from option‐implied volatilities to account for the changes in expected risk premium caused by news announcements. This measure is found to capture incompletely the effects of news announcements, which may due to the misreactions observed on the options market or alternative explanations, such as increased liquidity or investors' overreaction resulting in higher realized returns. Consequently, the underlying mechanism remains to some extent inconclusive although the empirical results provide strong support for the macroeconomic news announcement hypothesis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:105–126, 2007     

Professional financial advice,self‐control and saving behavior

This study investigates whether professional financial advice (“PFA”) can assist households in making better‐informed financial decisions and whether PFA may help households achieve better self‐control in implementing financial plans. In particular, we examine the effects of PFA and self‐control ability on saving behavior, as well as the interaction of PFA and self‐control on saving behavior. We extend the dual‐self model of impulse control and derive three hypotheses: (a) people with higher levels of self‐control save more than those with lower levels of self‐control; (b) PFA has a positive effect on saving behavior; and (c) people with lower levels of self‐control benefit more from obtaining PFA than those with higher levels of self‐control. We use a German household panel dataset SAVE, which was collected annually from 2005 to 2009. Respondents are asked whether they have discussed financial matters with financial advisors in banks, insurance companies or financial service providers. Using a number of behavioral proxies of self‐control, we create an aggregate measure of self‐control through factor analysis. We estimate a fixed‐effects model to identify the effects of PFA and self‐control on financial assets. Empirical results show that both PFA and self‐control have a significant positive relationship with financial assets. The interaction term of PFA and self‐control is a significant predictor of financial assets. We discuss conclusions for the financial advising industry and public policy aimed at consumer financial literacy.     

POST‐KEYNESIAN EFFECTIVE DEMAND AND CAPITAL–LABOUR SUBSTITUTION

This paper analyses the relationship between the real wage rate and employment when we induce capital–labour substitution within a Post‐Keynesian Kaleckian model. To avoid the over‐determinacy problem, we consider a non‐homogeneous production function and cost minimization, in contrast to recent work that assumed a homogeneous production function and profit maximization. As a result, we find not only that increasing returns to scale are important in sustaining the long‐run stability condition, but also that if the increasing returns to scale are small, then it is more likely that employment will increase.     

A note on the relationships between some risk‐adjusted performance measures

Assuming portfolio returns are normally distributed, it is shown that both Sortino ratio (SR) and upside potential ratio (UPR) are monotonically increasing functions of the Sharpe ratio. As a result, all three risk‐adjusted performance measures provide identical ranking among investment alternatives. The effects of skewness and kurtosis are then evaluated within the Edgeworth‐Sargan density family. For the Sortino ratio, the above conclusion remains valid in the presence of negative skewness or excessive kurtosis. Similar results apply to the UPR with modifications. For all other cases, both SR and UPR provide exactly opposite ranking among investment alternatives to that suggested by the Sharpe ratio when the Sharpe ratio is large. Applications to futures hedging are discussed. Specifically, it is found that the Sharpe ratio may frequently lead to a smaller futures position than the other two ratios. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:483–495, 2002     

A Simulation Model Of Multi‐Echelon Retail Inventory With Cross‐Channel Product Returns

This study explores the relationship between a retailer's product returns processing structure and Multi‐Echelon inventory system performance under cross‐channel and same‐channel product returns policies with nonstationary demand. Our research contributes to the growing body of reverse logistics literature, offering insight into how a retailer's logistical returns management strategy can impact inventory effectiveness in cross‐channel retail environments. Adopting a contingency framework, we develop research hypotheses which we test through experimentation on a Multi‐Echelon retail inventory system within a discrete‐event simulation. Model parameters are derived from data collected from a large U.S. retailer of consumer durable and nondurable goods. We find an amplifying effect of a cross‐channel returns policy on the positive relationship between a decentralized returns processing structure and inventory effectiveness. Further, through our analysis of nonstationarity in demand and resulting returns, we uncover strong main and interaction effects that seasonal demand variation can have on inventory outcomes, even under only moderate levels of seasonality. Our results highlight the need for firms to align logistical structures for returns processing with the returns policy and the external environment, while also lending credence to calls within the logistics literature for improved modeling of nonstationary demand in inventory management research.     

Minimum capital requirement calculations for UK futures

Key to the imposition of appropriate minimum capital requirements on a daily basis is accurate volatility estimation. Here, measures are presented based on discrete estimation of aggregated high‐frequency UK futures realizations underpinned by a continuous time framework. Squared and absolute returns are incorporated into the measurement process so as to rely on the quadratic variation of a diffusion process and be robust in the presence of fat tails. The realized volatility estimates incorporate the long memory property. The dynamics of the volatility variable are adequately captured. Resulting rescaled returns are applied to minimum capital requirement calculations. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:193–220, 2004     

The “You and I” of Happiness: Investigating the Long‐Term Impact of Self‐ and Other‐Focused Happiness‐Enhancing Activities

It is commonly known in the positive psychology literature that people who want to increase their happiness ought to engage in so‐called happiness‐enhancing activities. Building on this stream of research, work that emphasizes the duality of happiness (affect vs. meaning) is introduced in order to propose a new conceptualization of happiness activities. The new conceptualization distinguishes between self‐ and other‐focused happiness activities, and argues for the importance of other‐focused activities over self‐focused ones. Results from a six‐week long study show that other‐focused happiness activities consistently outperformed self‐focused ones in terms of raising participants’ levels of happiness. Although self‐focused happiness activities also increased happiness, by showing increases over time relative to participants’ baseline level, other‐focused happiness activities consistently outperformed such increases.     

When self‐customization backfires: The role of a maximizing mindset

Self‐customization in online shopping contexts readily offers an abundance of options for consumers. However, the sheer amount of information can quickly become overwhelming. One way to give people the freedom to choose without overwhelming them with information is to simplify the decision process by breaking it down into a series of smaller steps. Contrary to a common assumption that simpler decisions increase choice likelihood, however, this study demonstrates that a simple by‐attribute self‐customization process may activate a maximizing mindset, which increases people's desire to find better options and decreases their satisfaction with the ones available. Consequently, simplifying the self‐customization process can sometimes backfire by decreasing choice likelihood. Three studies suggest that although by‐attribute self‐customization formats are easier to choose from, compared with more complex matrix formats, they may sometimes—paradoxically—increase choice deferral. The findings suggest that a maximizing mindset mediates this effect, casting doubt on information‐based alternative explanations. The findings also suggest that whether by‐attribute self‐customization increases or decreases choice likelihood may depend on the presence of objective quality cues, which indicate that an objectively‐best option can be found. This study furthers the understanding of how decision difficulty and maximizing influence self‐customization decisions.     

Two‐Way Migration between Similar Countries

We develop a model to explain two‐way migration of high‐skilled individuals between countries that are similar in their economic characteristics. High‐skilled migration results from the combination of workers whose abilities are private knowledge, and a production technology that gives incentives to firms for hiring workers of similar ability. In the presence of migration cost, high‐skilled workers self‐select into the group of migrants. The laissez‐faire equilibrium features too much migration, explained by a negative migration externality. We also show that for sufficiently low levels of migration cost the optimal level of migration, while smaller than in the laissez‐faire equilibrium, is strictly positive. Finally, we extend our model into different directions to capture stylised facts in the data and show that our baseline results also hold in these more complex modelling environments.     

Brand‐Situation Congruity: The Roles of Self‐Construal and Brand Commitment

The present research examines the moderating roles of self‐construal and brand commitment in brand‐situation congruity effects in persuasion. Self‐construal refers to how individuals perceive themselves in the context of relationships with others (Singelis, 1994). Individuals with independent self‐construal, who emphasize autonomy and assertiveness, value consistency regardless of social contexts, whereas people with interdependent self‐construal value their relationships with others and adapt with flexibility to social situations. Commitment is a psychological state that globally represents the experience of dependence on a relationship and denotes a long‐term orientation, including a feeling of attachment to a relational partner and a desire to maintain a relationship (Rusbult, 1983). In the same vein, brand commitment refers to emotional or psychological attachment to and dependence on a brand (Beatty & Kahle, 1988x). Experiment 1 demonstrated that brand‐situation congruity, for which brand preference increases when the brand personality is congruent (vs. incongruent) with social situational cues, was stronger for interdependent (vs. independent) self‐construal individuals. Experiment 2 provided further support for the moderating role of self‐construal, when primed, in situation congruity effects as well as evidence for another moderator, brand commitment. That is, the moderating effect of self‐construal on brand‐situation congruity was stronger when consumers held weak (vs. strong) commitment to the target brand.     

Long‐Term Oriented Marketing Relationships and Ethical Conduct in Outsourcing Sector

The study evaluates the positive effect of long‐term oriented marketing relationship on ethical conduct from the perspective of the service provider (i.e., the agent‐firm), by integrating the relevant literature from relationship marketing, ethics, and long‐term orientation domains. The paper proposes that service providers that build relationship quality with their clients will display increased ethical conduct toward them. Specifically, the study examines the positive influence of the dimensions of relationship quality (that are relevant to the offshoring services context) that the service provider firm's employees undertake and their impact on ethical conduct. Overall, the results indicate that the commitment‐only full mediation model of relationship marketing variables on ethical conduct is a better representation than both direct‐effects model and other competing mediating models examined in this study. Fundamentally, it means that customer service officers should incorporate long‐term orientation and commitment in their principal–agent relationships that will provide the impetus for undertaking ethical behavior. The article concludes with a discussion and implications of the findings.     

The Long‐Term Impact of Entrepreneurial Self‐Efficacy and Entrepreneurial Orientation on Venture Performance

We collected multi‐wave survey data to assess the lagged effects of entrepreneurial self‐efficacy (ESE) and entrepreneurial orientation (EO) on firm performance over a five‐year period. The results of our study indicate that ESE and EO are both positively associated with firm performance but in different, and interesting, ways. Entrepreneurially self‐efficacious founder/managers may help improve the performance of very young firms but such benefits dissipate over time. An EO, on the other hand, does not appear to be particularly beneficial to very young firms. However, our results suggest an EO may play an increasingly valuable role as new firms mature.     

Understanding How Goal‐striving,Goal Orientation,and Shame Influence Self‐perceptions after Exposure to Models in Advertising

Marketers frequently use advertisements featuring thin models to promote the goal of self‐improvement to consumers. However, many of these appeals lead to detrimental effects on the self‐perceptions of the females who view them. This paper integrates components of goal‐striving theory and social comparison theory to explain consumer response to these advertisements and investigates how goal attainability may mitigate the negative effects of these ads. Additionally, this work investigates how a promotion‐focus goal orientation moderates the effects of the goal‐striving process and provides evidence of the mediating effects of shame. Finally, this work addresses a gap in the literature by examining how the interplay of model size and goal attainability impacts male consumers’ self‐perceptions. Study 1 reveals that high levels of perceived goal attainability mitigate the negative effects of exposure to thin models on self‐perceptions for females. Study 2 demonstrates that a high promotion‐focus goal orientation can lead to more favorable self‐perceptions for female participants exposed to a thin model with attainable goals, but it does not isolate participants from feelings of shame, which mediates the effects of goal attainability on self‐perceptions. Study 3 reveals similar findings for male consumers, but notably finds that shame does not play a significant role in understanding the comparison process for male consumers, suggesting key differences in the comparison processes between sexes.     

On market mavens and consumer self‐confidence: A cross‐cultural study

Market mavens are attentive to media and important diffusers of marketplace information. This study examines the relationships between cultural individualism, general and consumer self‐confidence, and market mavenism in the context of two distinct cultural systems, the United States and South Korea. The examination of cross‐cultural equivalence of the constructs under study provides evidence for both configural and full or partial metric invariance. The results indicate that cultural individualism is positively related to general self‐confidence, general self‐confidence is positively related to consumer selfconfidence, and consumer self‐confidence is positively related to market mavenism. Additionally, this research shows that these relationships hold in both the U.S. and South Korean samples. The results of this study indicate that market mavenism, and thus levels of confidence about marketplace knowledge and speed of diffusion of such information may be more prevalent among the more individualistic than collectivistic consumers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.