Universal Portfolios

We exhibit an algorithm for portfolio selection that asymptotically outperforms the best stock in the market. Let x_i= (x_i, x_i2,…, x_im)^t denote the performance of the stock market on day i, where x_ii is the factor by which the jth stock increases on day i. Let b_i= (_bi1 b_i2, b_im)^t, b;_ij? 0, b_ij= 1, denote the proportion b_ij of wealth invested in the j th stock on day i. Then S_n= II_iⁿ= bi^tx_i is the factor by which wealth is increased in n trading days. Consider as a goal the wealth S_n*= max_b II_iⁿ=₁ b^tx_i that can be achieved by the best constant rebalanced portfolio chosen after the stock outcomes are revealed. It can be shown that Sn * exceeds the best stock, the Dow Jones average, and the value line index at time n. In fact, S_n* usually exceeds these quantities by an exponential factor. Let x₁, x₂, be an arbitrary sequence of market vectors. It will be shown that the nonanticipating sequence of portfolios db yields wealth such that , for every bounded sequence x₁, x₂…, and, under mild conditions, achieve where J, is an (m - 1) x (m - I) sensitivity matrix. Thus this portfolio strategy has the same exponential rate of growth as the apparently unachievable S*_n.     

Defining Respectful Leadership: What It Is,How It Can Be Measured,and Another Glimpse at What It Is Related to

Research on work values shows that respectful leadership is highly desired by employees. On the applied side, however, the extant research does not offer many insights as to which concrete leadership behaviors are perceived by employees as indications of respectful leadership. Thus, to offer such insights, we collected and content analyzed employees’ narrations of encounters with respectful leadership (N ₁ = 426). The coding process resulted in 19 categories of respectful leadership spanning 149 leadership behaviors. Furthermore, to also harness this comprehensive repertoire for quantitative organizational research, we undertook two more studies (N _2a = 228; N _2b = 412) to empirically derive a feasible item-based measurement of respectful leadership and assess its psychometric qualities. In these studies, we additionally investigated the relationships between respectful leadership as assessed with this new measurement and employees’ vertical and contextual followership as assessed via subordinates’ identification with their leaders, their appraisal respect for their leaders, their feeling of self-determination, and their job satisfaction.     

A Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for Large Financial Markets

We formulate the notion of “asymptotic free lunch” which is closely related to the condition “free lunch” of Kreps (1981) and allows us to state and prove a fairly general version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in the context of a large financial market as introduced by Kabanov and Kramkov (1994). In a large financial market one considers a sequence (Sⁿ)_n=1^∞ of stochastic stock price processes based on a sequence (Ωⁿ, Fⁿ, (F_tⁿ)_t∈In, Pⁿ)_n=1^∞ of filtered probability spaces. Under the assumption that for all n∈ N there exists an equivalent sigma‐martingale measure for Sⁿ, we prove that there exists a bicontiguous sequence of equivalent sigma‐martingale measures if and only if there is no asymptotic free lunch (Theorem 1.1). Moreover we present an example showing that it is not possible to improve Theorem 1.1 by replacing “no asymptotic free lunch” by some weaker condition such as “no asymptotic free lunch with bounded” or “vanishing risk.”     

Pathwise CVA regressions with oversimulated defaults

We consider the computation by simulation and neural net regression of conditional expectations, or more general elicitable statistics, of functionals of processes $(X,Y)$. Here an exogenous component Y (Markov by itself) is time-consuming to simulate, while the endogenous component X (jointly Markov with Y) is quick to simulate given Y, but is responsible for most of the variance of the simulated payoff. To address the related variance issue, we introduce a conditionally independent, hierarchical simulation scheme, where several paths of X are simulated for each simulated path of Y. We analyze the statistical convergence of the regression learning scheme based on such block-dependent data. We derive heuristics on the number of paths of Y and, for each of them, of X, that should be simulated. The resulting algorithm is implemented on a graphics processing unit (GPU) combining Python/CUDA and learning with PyTorch. A CVA case study with a nested Monte Carlo benchmark shows that the hierarchical simulation technique is key to the success of the learning approach.     

The indirect effects of advertisements designed to change product attribute beliefs

This study investigated the dynamics of attitude change by examining indirect effects of an ad designed to change a belief. Results showed that an ad had indirect effects on unmentioned beliefs, which were a function of (1) the manner in which beliefs are organized internally in ad recipients' cognitive structure and (2) retrieval cues provided externally in the ad. Also, the ad had indirect effects on evaluations (a_i) of the intended attribute; these effects were observed especially when the belief was directly attacked by the ad and the ad recipients' beliefs were held with high confidence.     

Equilibrium solutions for resource dilemmas

Considered in this article is a class of resource dilemma games designed to study interactive decision behavior in the face of both strategic and environmental uncertainty. Groups of n members are asked to share a common resource pool whose exact size, x, is not known. Rather, x is sampled randomly from a uniform probability distribution which is common knowledge. Each group member j(j=1,...,n) requests r _j units from the random resource pool. Individual decisions are made independently and anonymously. Preplay communication is prohibited. If (r ₁+r ₂+...+r _n ) x, each member j is granted his/her request; otherwise, group members get nothing. We derive the Nash equilibrium solution for this resource dilemma game, and compare it to an expected utility model originally proposed by Suleiman and Rapoport (1988). We then show that the equilibrium solution accounts for the major qualitative features of experimental results reported in two previous studies.     

The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits and Tourism Receipts in Turkey

Current Account Deficits (CAD) in Turkey have reached significantly high levels in the recent years and discussions around the sustainability of these deficits continue. On the other hand, thanks to its rapid development within the same period, the tourism sector is observed to increase its positive contribution to the current accounts balances. This study is an initiative to highlight the contribution of the tourism sector to the sustainability of the CAD in Turkey. Unit root and Cointegration tests have been used to this end. This approach is applied to the long-run relationship between Exports + Tourism Receipts (X + TR) and Imports + Tourism Expenditures (M + TE) for the period of 1980Q1–2005Q2. We question the weak sustainability hypothesis where the cointegrating vector is (X + TR)_t = a + b(M + TE)_t + η _t . In this vector, if b equals to one and η_t is stationary, then the current account deficits are strongly sustainable, if b is between 0 and 1(0 < b < 1) and η_t is stationary or b = 1 but η_t is non-stationary, then the current account deficits are weakly sustainable and lastly, if there is no cointegration or b = 0, then the current account deficits are unsustainable. The empirical results indicate that CAD in Turkey are unsustainable in spite of the rising shares of tourism receipts in current account balances. Therefore, in Turkey, where exports are exceedingly depended on imports, which makes it not very easy to reduce imports, the only way to ensure that CAD are sustainable is to seek options to further increase the tourism receipts.     

Game-theoretic properties of Final-Offer Arbitration

Final-Offer Arbitration (FOA) is a dispute settlement procedure in which an arbitrator chooses one side's final position as the resolution. Game-theoretic models of FOA in two-sided interest disputes are reviewed, especially models of the disputants' final offer choices under uncertainty about the arbitrator's preferences. The extent to which the Brams-Merrill Theorem (1986) reveals optimal strategic behavior under FOA, and the implications for efficiency and equity, are assessed. Analysis of a model not satisfying the hypotheses of the Theorem suggests that, for some arbitrators, FOA can have an undesirable tendency. Another game model is used to address the question of how disputants' differential risk-aversion is reflected in their strategic behavior, and in the fairness of FOA outcomes. This calculation clarifies some apparently contradictory empirical evidence about FOA.     

Dynamic Agency and Investment Theory under Model Uncertainty

We extend dynamic agency and investment theory by incorporating model uncertainty. As concerns regarding model uncertainty induce a trade‐off between incentives and ambiguity sharing, the principal tends to delay the cash payout to the agent. We find model uncertainty lowers the firm value, the average q and marginal q, where q is defined as the ratio between a physical asset's market value and its replacement value. Furthermore, model uncertainty leads to insufficient investment, which provides an alternative explanation for under‐investment. Finally, the optimal pay‐performance sensitivity of the agent's continuation value to the firm's output is state dependent and exceeds the lower bound when it is close to the payout boundary.     

A polymorphism associated with entrepreneurship: evidence from dopamine receptor candidate genes

The tendency to be an entrepreneur may be influenced by genetic variation. Sensation seeking is more common among entrepreneurs than among the general population. Twin studies show that the tendency to be an entrepreneur is heritable and that common genes influence both sensation seeking and entrepreneurial tendency (Nicolaou et al. Manag Sci 54:167–179, 2008a; Strateg Entrep J 2:7–21, 2008b). Since dopamine receptor genes have been associated with novelty seeking/sensation seeking (Benjamin et al. Nat Genet 12:81–84, 1996; Ebstein et al. Nat Genet 12:78–80, 1996; Noblett and Coccaro Curr Psychiatry Rep 7:73–80, 2005), and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been reported to occur at greater rates among entrepreneurs, we examined the association between five dopamine receptor genes and four ADHD-associated genes, with the tendency to be an entrepreneur in a sample of 1,335 individuals from the UK. We found a single nucleotide polymorphism (rs1486011) of the DRD3 gene on chromosome 3 to be significantly associated with the tendency to be an entrepreneur. This result is the first evidence of the association of a specific gene with entrepreneurship. Further studies are needed to replicate this association.     

ON TWO APPROACHES TO COHERENT RISK CONTRIBUTION

We compare two approaches to the coherent risk contribution: the directional risk contribution is defined as where ρ is a coherent risk measure; the linear risk contribution ρ^l(X; Y) is defined through a set of axioms, one of which is the linearity in X . The linear risk contribution exists and is unique for any ρ from the Weighted V@R class. We provide the representation for both risk contributions in the general setting as well as in some examples, including the MINV@R risk measure defined as where X₁, … , X_N are independent copies of X .     

Research Methods in Taxation Ethics: Developing the Defining Issues Test (DIT) for a Tax-Specific Scenario

This paper reports on the development of a research instrument designed to explore ethical reasoning in a tax context. This research instrument is a version of the Defining Issues Test (DIT) originally developed by Rest [1979a, Development in Judging Moral Issues (University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN); 1979b, Defining Issues Test (University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN)], but adapted to focus specifically on the environment encountered by tax practitioners. The paper explores reasons for developing a context- (and profession-) specific test, and details the manner in which this was undertaken. The study on which it is based aims to compare the reasoning of tax practitioners in the tax-specific context and in the general social context covered by the original DIT, and to compare this with the reasoning of non-specialists in these two contexts. The paper therefore also considers the issues that arise when using such tests to compare reasoning in different domains or to compare groups. The focus on instrument development to measure ethical reasoning in a specific domain will contribute to the literature on research methods in the area of the DIT and will facilitate cross-study comparisons.     

Partnership Formation for Change: Indicators for Transformative Potential in Cross Sector Social Partnerships

Despite their ethical intentions, ethically minded consumers rarely purchase ethical products (Auger and Devinney: 2007, Journal of Business Ethics 76, 361–383). This intentions–behaviour gap is important to researchers and industry, yet poorly understood (Belk et al.: 2005, Consumption, Markets and Culture 8(3), 275–289). In order to push the understanding of ethical consumption forward, we draw on what is known about the intention–behaviour gap from the social psychology and consumer behaviour literatures and apply these insights to ethical consumerism. We bring together three separate insights – implementation intentions (Gollwitzer: 1999, American Psychologist 54(7), 493–503), actual behavioural control (ABC) (Ajzen and Madden: 1986, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 22, 453–474; Sheeran et al.: 2003, Journal of Social Psychology, 42, 393–410) and situational context (SC) (Belk: 1975, Journal of Consumer Research 2, 157–164) – to construct an integrated, holistic conceptual model of the intention–behaviour gap of ethically minded consumers. This holistic conceptual model addresses significant limitations within the ethical consumerism literature, and moves the understanding of ethical consumer behaviour forward. Further, the operationalisation of this model offers insight and strategic direction for marketing managers attempting to bridge the intention–behaviour gap of the ethically minded consumer.     

Seven Pillars of Business Ethics: Toward a Comprehensive Framework

This article first addresses the question of “why” we teach business ethics. Our answer to “why” provides both a response to those who oppose business ethics courses and a direction for course content. We believe a solid, comprehensive course in business ethics should address not only moral philosophy, ethical dilemmas, and corporate social responsibility – the traditional pillars of the disciple – but also additional areas necessary to make sense of the goings-on in the business world and in the news. These “new pillars,” that we advocate include moral psychology, organizational design and behavior, motivational theory, and a unit on how society, business, and law interact. This last unit builds upon the work of Francis P. McHugh (1988) who urged an integration of “disciplines related to business ethics.” Our seventh pillar would encompass an integration of law, socio-political theory, and policy to demonstrate how business helps construct its own regulatory framework. The concluding recommendation is for a comprehensive “Seven Pillars” of business ethics approach. William Arthur Wines holds a B.S.B.A. with distinction from Northwestern University and a J.D. from the University of Michigan. He is admitted to the practice of law in Minnesota and the State of Washington. His research has appeared in over three dozen journals including the American Business Law Journal, Arizona Law Review, Economics of Education Review, Delaware Journal of Corporate Law, Denver Journal of International Law and Policy, Journal of Business Ethics, Labor Law Journal, Marquette Law Review, Nebraska Law Review, and The William and Mary Journal of Women and the Law. He is the author of two volumes of readings in business ethics and “Ethics, Law, and Business”, published by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. in 2006. This material is subject to various copyright laws. Please do not transmit electronically, quote, or copy without the prior written permission of the author.     

The Role of Information Feedback in the Management Group Decision-Making Process Applying System Dynamics Models

The research project addresses the influence of feedback information on the decision process supported by the application of system dynamics models. A user-friendly application was developed and used in the experiment with decision groups. The participants were 174 undergraduate management science students. They had the task of determining the optimum business strategy by maximizing the multiple criteria function under three experimental conditions: a ₁) an indivIDual decision process without the support of a system dynamics model, a ₂) an indivIDual decision process supported by a system dynamics model, and a ₃) a decision process supported by a system dynamics model and subject interaction via computer mediation. The hypotheses that the indivIDual decision process supported by a system dynamics model yields higher Criteria Function values than one without a system dynamics model, as well as the decision process supported by both a system dynamics model and subject interaction yields higher Criteria Function values than one supported by a system dynamics model alone were confirmed.     

Attitude formation from product trial: Distinct roles of cognition and affect for hedonic and functional products

Affective and cognitive responses to a product trial are examined in an experiment containing two cells representing two product types: hedonic and functional. The stimulus products were a computer game and grammar‐checking software. Forty‐two college students comprised the sample for the experiment. The specific affective responses studied are pleasure and arousal, and brand cognitions are represented as the expectancy value from brand attributes (the product of brand beliefs, belief confidence, and attribute evaluations, summed across the attributes (σ b_ic_ie_i)). The relative level and influence of affective and cognitive responses to a product trial were shown to differ significantly, depending on whether the product was hedonic or functional in nature. Specifically, for the hedonic product, felt arousal during the trial was higher than for the functional product, and emotional responses were significant antecedents of subjects' evaluations of the trial experience. Brand cognitions, however, were not significantly related to trial evaluations for the hedonic product. In contrast, for the functional product, brand cognitions and pleasure were significant antecedents of trial evaluations, but arousal was not. The findings of this study demonstrate the importance of considering both the cognitive structure created by a product trial and the consumer's emotional reactions to the trial. For hedonic products, especially, emotional responses to the trial were shown to be powerful antecedents to consumers' evaluations of a trial experience, and subsequently, brand attitude. Marketers and marketing researchers can use these results to predict which category of responses to product trial (affective or cognitive) will be most important for brand evaluation for the particular product in question. This knowledge may also enable marketers to manipulate aspects of a product trial that are most influential on the set of trial responses that this study has shown to significantly affect brand evaluation for that product type. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

European Views of Advertising

Abstract

The effects of brand beliefs and attitude-toward-the-ad (A_ad) on immediate and delayed measures of attitude-toward-the-brand (A_b)were investigated for individuals who were more- and less-involved with the message of a print advertisement. Results suggest A_ad's and brand beliefs' influence on immediate and delayed measures of A_b depend on individuals' involvement with the message. As expected, for individuals who are more-involved with an advertising message, both beliefs and A_ad influenced A_b. This relationship held even after a one-week delay. For those less-involved with the advertising message, however, beliefs had no significant influence on brand attitudes, measured immediately following advertising exposure or after a one-week delay. A_ad was shown to have a significant influence on brand attitudes in both time conditions. Implications for theory and practice, as well as directions for future research, are discussed.     

HIGH‐ORDER SHORT‐TIME EXPANSIONS FOR ATM OPTION PRICES OF EXPONENTIAL LÉVY MODELS

The short‐time asymptotic behavior of option prices for a variety of models with jumps has received much attention in recent years. In this work, a novel second‐order approximation for at‐the‐money (ATM) option prices is derived for a large class of exponential Lévy models with or without Brownian component. The results hereafter shed new light on the connection between both the volatility of the continuous component and the jump parameters and the behavior of ATM option prices near expiration. In the presence of a Brownian component, the second‐order term, in time‐t, is of the form , with d₂ only depending on Y, the degree of jump activity, on σ, the volatility of the continuous component, and on an additional parameter controlling the intensity of the “small” jumps (regardless of their signs). This extends the well‐known result that the leading first‐order term is . In contrast, under a pure‐jump model, the dependence on Y and on the separate intensities of negative and positive small jumps are already reflected in the leading term, which is of the form . The second‐order term is shown to be of the form and, therefore, its order of decay turns out to be independent of Y. The asymptotic behavior of the corresponding Black–Scholes implied volatilities is also addressed. Our method of proof is based on an integral representation of the option price involving the tail probability of the log‐return process under the share measure and a suitable change of probability measure under which the pure‐jump component of the log‐return process becomes a Y‐stable process. Our approach is sufficiently general to cover a wide class of Lévy processes, which satisfy the latter property and whose Lévy density can be closely approximated by a stable density near the origin. Our numerical results show that the first‐order term typically exhibits rather poor performance and that the second‐order term can significantly improve the approximation's accuracy, particularly in the absence of a Brownian component.     

Social Contracting in a Pluralist Process of Moral Sense Making: A Dialogic Twist on the ISCT

This paper applies Wempe’s (2005, Business Ethics Quarterly 15(1), 113–135) boundary conditions that define the external and internal logics for contractarian business ethics theory, as a system of argumentation for evaluating current or prospective institutional arrangements for arriving at the “good life,” based on the principles and practices of social justice. It does so by showing that a more dynamic, process-oriented, and pluralist ‘dialogic twist’ to Donaldson and Dunfee’s (2003, ‘Social Contracts: sic et non’, in P. Heugens, H. van Oosterhout and J. Vromen (eds.), The Social Institutions of Capitalism: Evolution and Design of Social Contracts (Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar Publishing, Ltd.) pp. 109–126; 1999, Ties that Bind: A Social Contracts Approach to Business Ethics (Boston, MA, Harvard Business School Press); 1995, Economics and Philosophy 11(1), 85–112; 1994, Academy of Management Review 19(2), 252–284.) integrated social contracting theory (ISCT) of economic ethics will further develop this promising and influential approach to moral reasoning, ethical decision-making, and stakeholder governance. This evolutionary, interactive learning-based model of ethical norm generation via dialogic stakeholder engagement is particularly appropriate within economic communities that are experiencing value conflict and pressures for institutional change.Jerry M. Calton is Professor of Management at the University of Hawaii at Hilo. His research interests encompass multi-stakeholder learning dialogue, trust-based network governance, and the social contracting approach to ethical decision-making. His publications have appeared in the Journal of Business Ethics, Business & Society, Business Ethics Quarterly, the Journal of Corporate Citizenship, and elsewhere.