THE EFFECTS OF YOUNG ADULT‐DEPENDENT COVERAGE AND CONTRACEPTION MANDATES ON YOUNG WOMEN

This research investigates two features of the Affordable Care Act that especially affect young adults, the young adult‐dependent coverage (YAD) mandate and the requirement to cover contraception (CM). Both mandates were first enacted at the state level but have been studied only in isolation. We estimate a wide range of models allowing these mandates to have joint effects on insurance coverage, health‐care access, health outcomes and fertility. We provide new evidence that helps settle the mixed findings from past state‐level YAD and CM research and suggests the two mandates may combine to improve the well‐being of young adults. (JEL I18, I12, H75)     

LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS AT SCHOOL‐LEAVING: LONG‐RUN EFFECTS ON MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY

In this study, we assess the long‐run impact of labor market conditions at the time of school‐leaving on marriage and fertility outcomes. We draw data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. Our sample left school between 1976 and 1989, and we use variation in the state unemployment rate at the time of school‐leaving to identify persistent effects. We find that men who left school when the state unemployment rate was high are less likely to be married and have children at age 45, but are more likely to be divorced. Women, however, are more likely to have children. (JEL J1, J2)     

A COMPARISON OF CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL APPROACHES IN VALUE‐AT‐RISK ESTIMATION*

In this paper, we attempt to find the most important factor causing the differences in the performance of Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) estimation by comparing the performances of conditional and unconditional approaches. For each approach, we use various methods and models with different degrees of flexibility in their distributions including S_U‐normal distribution, which is one of the most flexible distribution functions. Our empirical results underscore the importance of the flexibility‐of‐distribution function in VaR estimation models. Even though it seems to be unclear which approach is better between conditional and unconditional approaches, it seems to be clear that the more flexible distribution we use, the better the performance, regardless of which approach we use.     

THE RISK OF FIRE SALES IN THE TRI‐PARTY REPO MARKET

This paper studies the risk of “fire sales” in the tri‐party repo market, a large and important market where securities dealers find short‐term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients' assets. We distinguish between fire sales of assets by a dealer who, facing a run that could lead to default, sells securities to generate liquidity, and fire sales of assets by repo investors after a dealer's default has occurred. While fire sales do cause damage no matter how they arise, the tools available to lessen the harm from the two types of fire sales are different. We find that limited tools are available to mitigate the risk of predefault fire sales and that no established tools currently exist to mitigate the risk of postdefault sales. (JEL G01, G18)     

Intra‐Week Price Patterns in the Housing Market*

In this paper, I demonstrate the existence of city‐specific intra‐week price patterns in the Norwegian housing market. I use a data set with exact sell dates to show that sell prices are higher on certain days. Using ask prices and observations on repeat sales in fixed‐effect models, I seek to control for composition effects and unobserved heterogeneity. The intra‐week price patterns are shown to be associated with patterns in the frequency of public‐showing days. I argue that the findings are consistent with optimizing agents acting on new information.     

PILL,PATCH, OR SHOT? SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS AND BIRTH CONTROL CHOICE*

When choosing a contraception method, women base their decisions on their subjective expectations about the realizations of method‐related outcomes. Examples of outcomes include getting pregnant and contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD). I combine innovative data on probabilistic expectations with observed contraceptive choices to estimate a random utility model of birth control choice. The availability of expectations data is essential to identify preferences from beliefs. Effectiveness, protection against STDs, and partner's disapproval are found to be the most important factors in the decision process. The elicited expectations and inferred preference parameters are used to simulate the impact of various policies.     

What Does the Taylor Rule Say About a New Zealand–Australia Currency Union?*

It has been suggested that the New Zealand economy may have similar characteristics and face similar shocks to some Australian states, so lowering the costs of a trans‐Tasman currency union. We test this, under the assumption that differences in Taylor rule‐implied interest rate paths for different regions give an indication of differences in aggregate shocks that hit different economies. We compare implied Taylor rule interest rates for each of the Australian states to implied Taylor rule rates for New Zealand. We also compare them to realised 90‐day rates. We find that the Taylor rule‐implied rates in Australian states and in New Zealand are similarly correlated with actual Australian interest rates.     

THE IMPACT OF SODA SALES TAXES ON CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM SCANNER DATA

Scientific evidence on the effect of sugar consumption on obesity has propelled policy makers in several states across the United States to propose the imposition of a tax on soft drinks sales. In this article, we look at the effect of two tax events: a 5.5% sales tax on soft drinks imposed by the state of Maine in 1991 and a 5% sales tax on soft drinks levied in Ohio in 2003. We investigate this question by using sales data collected by scanner devices in the two states, where soda taxes where enacted as well as on neighboring states. We employ a difference‐in‐difference matching estimator (DIDM) that, in our setting, permits the comparison among treatment and control groups based on brand identity. Results suggest that neither sales tax had a statistically significant impact on the consumption of soft drinks. This finding is robust to several alternative specifications. (JEL D12, H22, C90, L66)     

COMPARING FEDERAL AND PRIVATE‐SECTOR WAGES WITHOUT LOGS

I use Current Population Survey data from 2005 through 2010 to compare the wages of federal employees and workers in the private sector who have similar observable characteristics. The distribution of wages differed drastically between the federal and private sectors. In particular, I find that federal employees with no more than a high school diploma earned 21% more, on average, than their private‐sector counterparts, whereas those with a professional degree or doctorate earned 23% less. Overall, the average of federal wages was about 2% higher than the average wage of similar private‐sector workers. Other researchers have found larger differences because they used log‐linearized models, which result in comparisons of geometric means. I show that arithmetic means are more relevant in the context of the relationship between a government's compensation policy and its budget. The discrepancy between differences in arithmetic and geometric means occurs because the wages of federal employees were much less dispersed than those of employees with similar characteristics in the private sector. (JEL J31, J38, J45)     

Non‐Neutrality of the Proposed Resource Super Profits Tax

I explain my disagreement with Professor Lund regarding the non‐neutrality of the proposed Resource Super Profits Tax. I find that, when assets are sold by a firm to another firm or when an exit decision is made between shutting down or selling the project, that distortions from the Resource Super Profits Tax occur. Previous analysis of cash flow taxes did not analyse the effects of assets sales under uncertainty.     

THE IMPACT OF PUBLICLY PROVIDED EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION PROGRAMS ON DISTRICT‐LEVEL TEST SCORES

While the existing literature largely finds that standardized test scores are positively associated with participation in pre‐kindergarten programs at the student level, there is little research on the policy effect of publicly providing these programs to entire school districts. We attempt to partially fill this void by examining the effect that publicly provided pre‐kindergarten and full‐day kindergarten programs have on fourth grade student achievement in math and reading at the district level. The models utilize panel data from districts in Wisconsin along with fixed effects estimations. We find that once time‐invariant unobserved heterogeneity of a district is accounted for, preschool programs have small but significant impacts on a cohort's future math scores, particularly in less‐educated communities. Additionally, there is no evidence that preschool or full‐day kindergarten has an impact on future reading scores at the district level. (JEL I20, I28)     

Differential response by husbands and wives regarding contraceptive practice

It has been generally accepted that information on contraceptive usage obtained from the female partner of a couple is the same as would be obtained from the male partner. It has therefore not been customary to interview both husband and wife regarding contraceptive usage. However, an examination of surveys conducted in India, in which both partners of the couple were respondents, indicates a differential pattern of response with women typically underreporting usage as compared to men. The discrepancy between men and women in reporting birth control usage can be partly attributed to a culturally dictated reticence on the part of women in discussing sexual function. Data from Africa show the situation to be reversed, with greater underreporting being typical of the male partner. Overall, men were found to underreport the incidence of female methods of contraception, while women underreported male contraceptive methods. Based on the evidence examined, it is concluded that underreporting of contraceptive usage may be a significant problem, having implications for the choice of methodology and the assumptions on which family planning programs are based.     

Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models

We propose a simple method to identify the effects of unilateral and non‐discriminatory trade policies on bilateral trade within a theoretically consistent empirical gravity model. Specifically, we argue that structural gravity estimations should be performed with data that include not only international trade flows but also intra‐national trade flows. The use of intra‐national sales allows identification of the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies such as most favoured nation tariffs, even in the presence of exporter and importer fixed effects. A byproduct of our approach is that it can be used to recover estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for quantitative trade models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques in the case of most favoured nation tariffs and “time to export” as representative non‐discriminatory determinants of trade on the importer and on the exporter side, respectively. Our methods can be extended to quantify the impact on trade of any country‐specific characteristics as well as any non‐trade policies.     

The effects of cross‐border M&As on the acquirers’ domestic performance: firm‐level evidence

Abstract This paper provides empirical evidence on the effects of cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the acquiring firms’ domestic performance in the U.K. and France. We build a new firm‐level data set that combines a global M&A database with balance sheet data for the years 2000 to 2007. Combining matching techniques with a difference‐in‐differences estimator, we find that cross‐border M&As boost on average acquirers’ domestic sales and investment, and they are not accompanied by a downsizing of the domestic labour force in either country. Further, cross‐border M&As in knowledge‐intensive industries lead to improvements in domestic productivity. Our results display some heterogeneity across industries and types of acquisitions, suggesting a connection between the motives for international M&As and their resulting effects.     

GENDER INEQUALITY IN EDUCATION IN CHINA: A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Although there is evidence that there was gender inequality in China's education system in the 1980s, the literature in China has mixed evidence on improvements in gender inequality in educational attainment over the past three decades. Some suggest gender inequality is still severe; others report progress. We seek to understand the progress China has made (if any) in reducing gender inequality in education since the 1980s. To meet this goal, we use a meta‐analysis approach which provides a new quantitative review of a relatively large volume of empirical literature on gender educational differentials. This article analyzes differences across both time and space, and also across different grade levels and ethnicities. Our results indicate that gender inequality in educational attainment still exists, but it has been narrowing over time. Moreover, it varies by area (rural versus urban) and grade level. There is nearly no significant gender inequality in the case of girls in urban areas or in the case of the 9 years of compulsory education (primary school and junior high school). Girls, however, still face inequality in rural areas (although inequality is falling over time) and when they reach high school or beyond. (JEL I24)     

Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter?

Teens in the United States are far more likely to give birth than in any other industrialized country in the world. U.S. teens are two and a half times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada, around four times as likely as teens in Germany or Norway, and almost 10 times as likely as teens in Switzerland. Among more developed countries, Russia has the next highest teen birth rate after the United States, but an American teenage girl is still around 25 percent more likely to give birth than her counterpart in Russia. Moreover, these statistics incorporate the almost 40 percent fall in the teen birth rate that the United States has experienced over the past two decades. Differences across U.S. states are quite dramatic as well. A teenage girl in Mississippi is four times more likely to give birth than a teenage girl in New Hampshire--and 15 times more likely to give birth as a teen compared to a teenage girl in Switzerland. This paper has two overarching goals: understanding why the teen birth rate is so high in the United States and understanding why it matters. Thus, we begin by examining multiple sources of data to put current rates of teen childbearing into the perspective of cross-country comparisons and recent historical context. We examine teen birth rates alongside pregnancy, abortion, and "shotgun" marriage rates as well as the antecedent behaviors of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We seek insights as to why the rate of teen childbearing is so unusually high in the United States as a whole, and in some U.S. states in particular. We argue that explanations that economists have tended to study are unable to account for any sizable share of the variation in teen childbearing rates across place. We describe some recent empirical work demonstrating that variation in income inequality across U.S. states and developed countries can explain a sizable share of the geographic variation in teen childbearing. To the extent that income inequality is associated with a lack of economic opportunity and heightened social marginalization for those at the bottom of the distribution, this empirical finding is potentially consistent with the ideas that other social scientists have been promoting for decades but which have been largely untested with large data sets and standard econometric methods. Our reading of the totality of evidence leads us to conclude that being on a low economic trajectory in life leads many teenage girls to have children while they are young and unmarried and that poor outcomes seen later in life (relative to teens who do not have children) are simply the continuation of the original low economic trajectory. That is, teen childbearing is explained by the low economic trajectory but is not an additional cause of later difficulties in life. Surprisingly, teen birth itself does not appear to have much direct economic consequence. Moreover, no silver bullet such as expanding access to contraception or abstinence education will solve this particular social problem. Our view is that teen childbearing is so high in the United States because of underlying social and economic problems. It reflects a decision among a set of girls to "drop-out" of the economic mainstream; they choose non-marital motherhood at a young age instead of investing in their own economic progress because they feel they have little chance of advancement. This thesis suggests that to address teen childbearing in America will require addressing some difficult social problems: in particular, the perceived and actual lack of economic opportunity among those at the bottom of the economic ladder.     

New Evidence on the Effects of the Shortened School Duration in the German States: An Evaluation of Post‐secondary Education Decisions

Most German states have recently reduced the duration of university preparatory schooling from 13 to 12 years without changing the graduation requirements. We use nationwide data on high school graduates and the different timing of reform introduction in the federal states to identify the effects on post‐secondary education decisions and to evaluate potential effect mechanisms. The results show that university enrolment of female students decreased in the first year after graduation in all analyzed states, whereas participation in voluntary service or staying abroad increased. Furthermore, students from non‐academic families are more affected than students from an academic family background.     

DEMONSTRATED INTEREST: SIGNALING BEHAVIOR IN COLLEGE ADMISSIONS

In college admission decisions, important and possibly competing goals include increasing the quality of the freshman class and making the school more selective while attaining the targeted size of the incoming class. Especially for high‐quality applicants who receive multiple competing offers, colleges are concerned about the probability that these students accept the offers of admission. As a result, applicants' contacts with admissions offices, such as campus visits, can be viewed positively by the officers as demonstrated interest in the colleges. We provide empirical evidence on the effects of demonstrated interest on admission outcomes. Specifically, we use unique and comprehensive administrative data, which include all contacts made by each applicant to the admissions office of a medium‐sized highly selective university during two admission cycles. We find that an applicant who contacts the university is more likely to be admitted, and that the effect of the contact on the probability of admission is increasing in the applicant's Scholastic Assessment Test score, particularly when the contact is costly to make. We also use a numerical example to explore policies to reduce the inequity associated with the use of demonstrated interest in admission decisions, examining in particular the subsidization of costly demonstrated interest by low‐income students. (JEL D83, I23)     

DO SCHOOL LUNCH SUBSIDIES CHANGE THE DIETARY PATTERNS OF CHILDREN FROM LOW‐INCOME HOUSEHOLDS?

This article examines the effects of school lunch subsidies provided through the means‐tested component of the National School Lunch Program on the dietary patterns of children aged 10–13 years in the United States. Analyzing data on 5,140 public school children in fifth grade during spring 2004, we find significant increases in the number of servings of fruit, green salad, carrots, other vegetables, and 100% fruit juice consumed in 1 week for subsidized children relative to unsubsidized children. The effects on fruit and other vegetable consumption are stronger among the children receiving a full subsidy, as opposed to only a partial subsidy, and indicate the size of the subsidy is an important policy lever underlying the program's effectiveness. Overall, the findings provide the strongest empirical evidence to date that the means‐tested school lunch subsidies increase children's consumption over a time period longer than one school day. (JEL H51, I12, I38)