The impact of the Social Security Fund on auditor litigation risk

In this study, we examine the effect of the Social Security Fund on auditor litigation risk. Using audit fees as a proxy for auditor perceptions of litigation risk, we find that the Social Security Fund significantly reduces auditor litigation risk. Furthermore, we show that the Social Security Fund influences auditor litigation risk through reducing both the audit risk and the business risk of public companies. In addition, the impact of the Social Security Fund for reducing auditor litigation risk is more obvious in the group of firms with low levels of internal governance, which indicates that the Social Security Fund plays an important governance role as a high-quality institutional investor. In summary, we verify that the Social Security Fund, when acting as an institutional investor, plays an important role in corporate governance, and that it helps to reduce auditor litigation risk. Our results provide empirical support for expanding the governance role of the Social Security Fund as an institutional investor in China’s A-share market.     

Travelling risks: How did nanotechnology become a risk in India and South Africa?

India and South Africa have invested in nanotechnology since the early 2000s and have identified risks to human health and the environment as an important issue for governance. This is exemplary for a wider trend in which ‘developing countries’ play an increasingly prominent role in the development, production and use of emerging technologies. This validates the claim of the world risk society thesis that countries around the world are now confronted with the risks of emerging technologies. Little is known, however, about the way developing countries deal with the potential risks of emerging technologies. Starting from the observation that the risk colonization of nanotechnology in developing countries cannot be taken for granted, this article draws upon the relational theory of risk in order to investigate how nanotechnology became understood as an object of risk in South Africa and India. The article shows that nanotechnology was constituted as an object of risk in rather different ways in India and South Africa, demonstrating that the spread of risk discourses – and the emergence of a world risk society – cannot be understood without attending to the local context. The article shows that way risk is understood and dealt with changes as risk discourses travel around the world, giving many different faces to the world risk society.     

Modeling severity risk under PD–LGD correlation

In this article, a generic severity risk framework in which loss given default (LGD) is dependent upon probability of default (PD) in an intuitive manner is developed. By modeling the conditional mean of LGD as a function of PD, which also varies with systemic risk factors, this model allows an arbitrary functional relationship between PD and LGD. Based on this framework, several specifications of stochastic LGD are proposed with detailed calibration methods. By combining these models with an extension of CreditRisk+, a versatile mixed Poisson credit risk model that is capable of handling both risk factor correlation and PD–LGD dependency is developed. An efficient simulation algorithm based on importance sampling is also introduced for risk calculation. Empirical studies suggest that ignoring or incorrectly specifying severity risk can significantly underestimate credit risk and a properly defined severity risk model is critical for credit risk measurement as well as downturn LGD estimation.     

Risk association: towards a linguistically informed framework for analysing risk in discourse

This article addresses a fundamental feature of risk discourse, namely, risk association, defined as the process whereby an agent establishes a connection between something, x, and the notion of risk. In addition, risk association can be defined as the result of such a process, i.e. an established connection between x and risk. A special case of risk association is when x is linked to harmful properties and thus is represented as a risk. Although fundamental to any analysis of socio-cognitive attention to risks, the process of risk association is often taken for granted in risk research. A layered model of risk association is presented taking linguistic practices, i.e. the use of words, as the point of departure. Accordingly, there are both central and more peripheral means of risk association. The central means include the morpheme ‘risk’. More peripheral means of risk association are close synonyms and antonyms of risk (e.g. ‘hazard’, ‘danger’, ‘safety’ and ‘security’) and other related words (e.g. ‘crisis’, ‘protection’ and ‘threat’). For an illustration, the model is applied to an empirical example: the instructions for Swedish government agencies. The example illustrates how the exact vocabulary considered for operationalization in analysis has important consequences for the conclusions that follow with respect to the extent to which government agencies are associated with risk.     

The fair value of a token: How do markets price cryptocurrencies?

With the rise of cryptocurrency tokens as a new asset class, the question of the fair evaluation of a cryptocurrency token has become a question of increasing importance. We estimate the pricing kernel with which users price factors affecting their token holdings. We investigate how traditional risk factors such as market risk are evaluated, as well as how blockchain specific risk factors are priced in. In order to do so, we introduce an asset pricing model and modify its properties to make it applicable to cryptocurrency markets. We group the risk factors into market related and Bitcoin- and Ethereum blockchain specific risk factors. We find that blockchain specific risk factors are priced in. There is evidence that risk factors have moved from Bitcoin to Ethereum specific risk factors with an increasing importance of market factors, providing evidence for a decoupling of on-chain and off-chain trading activity.     

From precautionary inadequacy to participatory risk management

This paper examines the case of mobile telephone infrastructure as an example of a contemporary risk defined by a lack of scientific evidence and consensus as regards potential or future harm. This uncertainty has led to recourse to the precautionary principle at the European, national, regional and local level of EMF risk management. Local risk governance of mobile telephone infrastructures in Catalonia can be seen as an example of a socio-technical complex system linked to risk perception which highlights the limitations of the precautionary principle in a scientifically uncertain context. Active participation of stakeholders and the public in risk management arenas is required if current technocratic risk management strategies are to be superseded by transparent processes of decision-making in risk management spheres.     

Locally Greater Vulnerability to Background Risk

Willingness to take on risk is influenced by the presence of fair and unfair background risks for decision makers who are risk vulnerable as defined by Gollier and Pratt [1996], for these decision makers are more risk averse when they possess such an uninsurable background risk. We present an alternative derivation of the index of local vulnerability based on Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] compensated increases in risk, such that risk aversion increases with the introduction of any small fair background risk if and only if the index of local vulnerability is positive. We establish that the increase in risk aversion is greater for those who are more vulnerable as measured by the index of local vulnerability.     

The skewness risk premium in equilibrium and stock return predictability

In this study, we investigate the skewness risk premium in the financial market under a general equilibrium setting. Extending the long-run risks (LRR) model proposed by Bansal and Yaron (J Financ 59:1481–1509, 2004) by introducing a stochastic jump intensity for jumps in the LRR factor and the variance of consumption growth rate, we provide an explicit representation for the skewness risk premium, as well as the volatility risk premium, in equilibrium. On the basis of the representation for the skewness risk premium, we propose a possible reason for the empirical facts of time-varying and negative risk-neutral skewness. Moreover, we also provide an equity risk premium representation of a linear factor pricing model with the variance and skewness risk premiums. The empirical results imply that the skewness risk premium, as well as the variance risk premium, has superior predictive power for future aggregate stock market index returns, which are consistent with the theoretical implication derived by our model. Compared with the variance risk premium, the results show that the skewness risk premium plays an independent and essential role for predicting the market index returns.     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.     

A model for evaluating extreme risks with stochastic sustainability criteria: a case study of soil remediation on landfill sites

This article addresses the issue of risk management for extreme events. The term stochastic sustainability will be defined in relation to the risk management of extreme events. On the basis of stochastic sustainability, a risk evaluation function is defined as an efficient reserve to remedy contaminations just as a premium rating in insurance policy. A term of generalized safety loading is used as a key concept to evaluate the degree of extremeness of risk. A simple model of the environmental or infrastructure systems is used to illustrate the procedure of risk evaluation where stochastic sustainability is required in case of accidental

environmental contamination. A case study of soil contamination at landfill sites is presented as an example to test this risk evaluation function.     

Mean reversion and consumption smoothing

Most models of the evolution of wealth and consumption assumethat wealth volatility and risk premium are constant. But infact, volatility decliners, and risk premium seems to decline,as wealth rises. A model that allows mean reversion in the sensethat the risk premium declines as wealth rises can help explainboth the 'consumption smoothing puzzle' and the 'equity premiumpuzzle'. In an example of such a model that gives us an analyticsolution, direct and derived risk aversion are both constant,but differ.     

How to deal with dissent among experts. Risk evaluation of EMF in a scientific dialogue

This article describes the results of a scientific discourse which aimed at exploring the reasons for differences in expert health risk assessment of radio frequency electromagnetic fields of mobile telephony.

It starts with describing the structure of the discourse. Then, the reasons for the conflicting risk assessments are discussed. Differences are due to the selection and evaluation of relevant scientific studies by applying different scientific quality standards, to the methods used for generating a research synthesis and an overall risk evaluation. Consensus could be achieved regarding the selection of and the quality requirements for the scientific studies used for risk assessment as well as their significance for risk evaluation. However, dissent remained about the synthesis of scientific evidence into an overall risk evaluation and about the relevance of the precautionary principle for risk evaluation and its implications for the risk assessment framework.

Based on the analysis of these problems, a transparent, consistent and rational procedure for risk assessment is suggested to facilitate a risk characterization which better meets the demands of policy making and the public for an appropriate risk evaluation.     

Precautionary principle and discursive strategies: classifying and managing risks

The paper covers an integral risk concept consisting of a criteria-based risk evaluation, a novel proposal for risk classification and corresponding risk management strategies aimed at an analytic-deliberative approach in risk regulation. For this purpose, technical and scientific as well as social scientific concepts were integrated into a single conceptual framework. Eight criteria were selected for evaluating risks: probability of occurrence, extent of damage, incertitude, ubiquity, persistency, reversibility, delay effect and potential of mobilization. With respect to these criteria, six risk classes were formed in which risks may exceed thresholds determined by deliberative action. Effective and practicable management strategies were deduced for each risk class. The characterization and classification of risks provide a knowledge base for designing risk policies and class-specific management strategies. Three major management categories were identified: risk-based, precautionary and discursive strategies. In deliberative processes actors need to agree on norms and procedures to manage risks. If the results reflect the agreement of previous discourse procedures, political decisions become more legitimate. Because the risk evaluation, risk classification and management strategies are based on the concept of analytic-deliberative processes, the essential requirements for an effective and democratic risk policy are met.     

Mastering risks: An illusion: Truth and tropes on jeopardy

Drawing on examples from maritime insurance, this article seeks to show that historically rules and regulations have often taken into consideration the performativity of risk insurance so as to limit the range of insured risks and thus avoid the realization of the claims through embezzlement or kindred corruption.Today the question of performativity and corruption remains outside the pale of financial research. Having rejected the distinction between uncertainty and risk, financiers take risk quantification as an incontrovertible given. Quantifying risk has become a key feature in modern finance ever since the difference between risk and uncertainty was rejected by financiers. Two reasons underlie this state of affairs: first the prevalent rationalist paradigm as expounded by highly reputed university professors has elevated “quantifiable risk” to a dogma. Additionally, this idea of risk, and its quantifiable limits, gain acceptance by society to the extent that systemic risk is constrained by a further concept: efficient markets. Herein we develop an idea of ethical responsibility which leads to a novel definition of risk, sharply diverging from current practice and instruction, so as to meeting the contemporary needs of both finance and broader society.     

Optimal rate classification for enhanced annuities

For a given premium, enhanced annuities pay higher pensions to policyholders with impaired health. Even though risk classification is a common concept in the insurance sector and should allow insurers to increase their profitability, enhanced annuities are rarely offered outside of the United Kingdom. The paper provides a general method of determining an optimal risk classification system for enhanced annuities that will maximize an insurance company’s profits. The cost of risk classification, as well as that incurred when insureds are assigned to inappropriate risk classes (a chief component of underwriting risk), are explicitly considered.     

Risk management; a behavioural perspective

The risk contributor is usually regarded as responsible for risk mitigation and accident compensation, especially when the risk is due to the operation of a commercial company. The culpability of risk has resulted in several approaches to safety management. Risk management based on quantitative risk analysis (QRA) emerged in the defence and nuclear industry during and after Second World War and is by now introduced in almost every industry with high-risk potential. During this period, risk analysis and management as a profession has evolved considerably. Technical failures and operator errors used to be considered as the prime causes of accidents in the early days of risk analysis. Based on investigations of major accidents in the latter half of the last century, poor safety culture and mismanagement were introduced as possible additional causes of major accidents. Human error in decision-making is, however, rarely quantified and thus not included in QRA. Knowledge from the experimental analysis of behaviour is absent in practical or operational risk management. This paper advocates an approach to risk management where the decision part of the chain of events is explicitly included. The behavioural perspective introduced implies that the application of experimentally based behaviour science and QRA both should be pursued, mainly because QRA is a strong, and probably the best, defence against decision errors. In an operational situation, management must do trade-offs between objectives where safety is but one of several considerations. When the risk is not quantified, safety loses out to other more easily quantified objectives of a company. The fatal decision error that led to the Challenger accident is used as an example.     

寿险资金运用的风险限额管理

资金运用风险是寿险公司面临的两大最主要风险之一,加强资金运用风险管理对确保寿险公司持续稳健经营至关重要。风险限额管理作为风险管理的核心内容,是风险管理体系中不可或缺的组成部分。建立一个科学、可操作和有效的风险限额管理体系,为寿险资金运用风险管理提供控制标准,是决定风险管理成效的关键环节。本文借鉴风险限额分配模型,总结寿...     

Rhetorical accounts of risk: interprofessional risk assessment in operational planning meetings

In the context of high-risk industries, risk assessment takes place not only through standardized methods for risk analysis, but is frequently negotiated and discussed as an integral part of operational decision-making. This is not least the case in the context of operational planning. Frequent changes in operations require ongoing assessment of risk as tasks are rescheduled and resources reallocated. The current study explores how professionals account for the presence or absence of risk in a setting in which risk analysis is not the primary objective. With data from the offshore petroleum industry, the rhetorical aspects of risk assessments are examined. A series of interprofessional planning meetings were video recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a rhetorical discourse analytic framework. The data are analyzed at a micro-interactional level in order to study how accounts of risk are presented and negotiated in this particular setting. The meaning and consequences of operational plan changes, and their implications for safety, are seen as negotiated discursively through interprofessional meeting talk. The analysis shows that accounts of risk are characterized by shifting rhetorical strategies that can be heard to echo established risk discourses often referred to as ‘technico-scientific’ and ‘contextualized’ conceptions of risk. Rhetorical devices are used interchangeably and strategically by the participants as they account for risk from their respective institutional positions and their specific areas of expertise and responsibility. The accounts are found to be increasingly persuasive and rhetorical in style as disagreements over risk and prioritizations surface. Accounts of risk, then, are not simply objective presentations of probability and consequence, but rather powerful tools for achieving specific professional outcomes. The study contributes to the understanding of risk assessment at its most concrete and practical level; as it takes place through professional interaction in an operational setting.     

Hedging and Coordinated Risk Management: Evidence from Thrift Conversions

We provide an explanation for hedging as a means of allocating rather than reducing risk. We argue that when increases in total risk are costly, firms optimally allocate risk by reducing (increasing) exposure to risks that provide zero (positive) economic rents. Our evidence shows that mutual thrifts that convert to stock institutions increase total risk following conversion, consistent with their increased abilities and incentives for risk taking. They achieve this increase by hedging interest-rate risk and increasing credit risk. We provide some evidence that risk-management activities are related to growth capacity and management compensation structure attained at conversion.