Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation

This study examines how individuals' fertility outcomes were affected by the labor market conditions they experienced at graduation. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey, it finds that poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed individuals' entry into parenthood. Higher unemployment rates at graduation reduced the probability of having at least one child in the survey year for both men and women. The negative fertility effects generally followed a U-shape, reached the maximum around average childbearing ages, and faded out within 15 years after graduation. Low-skilled workers mainly contribute to the negative fertility effects observed in the whole sample. Employment and marital outcomes are also analyzed as potential mechanisms. Estimation results indicate that individuals who experienced poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed marriage and the birth of the first child due to a lower probability of being employed, reduced working hours, and adverse income shocks. The negative long-term fertility effects should be brought to policymakers' attention, especially when China's low fertility issue worsens. Policymakers are expected to create more favorable employment conditions for labor market entrants to encourage fertility and expand the future working-age population.     

Elderly long-term care policy and sandwich caregivers’ time allocation between child-rearing and market labor

Using an overlapping generations model, we present analyses of public long-term care provision effects on fertility and time allocation decisions of sandwich caregivers, those caring for young children and old parents simultaneously. If the public long-term care level runs short of the necessary level, then working children must compensate for the difference by spending their time. Reportedly, about a third of university students’ parents are sandwich caregivers in Japan, although Japan has a Long-Term Care Insurance system, which is a mandatory system with universal coverage. With a rapidly aging population, demand for long-term care is predicted to increase, thereby affecting family time allocation, e.g., fertility decisions, in Japan. Results show that if public long-term care production is costly relative to family care provision, then increases in public care provision lower the fertility rate. If labor productivity in the public long-term care sector improves, then it increases the fertility rate by freeing caregivers’ time from family care provision. It will also increase social welfare. The effects on labor employment in the goods production sector are generally ambiguous because the increased public care provision requires more labor.     

Empirical analysis of urban youth unemployment in Ethiopia

Lack of adequate jobs and long unemployment duration becomes a challenge for urban youth in Ethiopia. This study empirically examines youth unemployment and its determinants in urban Ethiopia. It aims to examine the incidences and durations of youth unemployment and their determinant factors. In addition to logistic regression model, a nonparametric Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards model are used. The results indicate that both the incidence and duration of youth unemployment is higher in urban Ethiopia. The hazards model shows that the hazard rate of leaving unemployment are significantly related to individual characteristics such as age and educational level of the youth, and labor market factors such as experience and job market information. Gender and regional disparities are observed. Young women exit unemployment much slower than men and the exit rate increases with age. Big and relatively more urbanized regions have a higher incidence and longer duration of unemployment spells than the small regions. Finally, based on the results, the study suggests that there is a need to adopt target policies that will promote skills and employment opportunities for the youth. Providing entrepreneurship training and startup capital to encourage youth to create rather than seek jobs is critical in this regard.     

Fertility and maternal labor supply in Japan: Conflicting policy goals?

Using panel data on Japanese mothers, this paper estimates the impact of fertility on maternal labor supply using twins as an instrument for the total number of children. We find that having twins actually has a longer term positive impact on maternal labor force participation in Japan. To understand this result, we present evidence that the effects of age and cost of children can generate this finding, are particularly salient in Japan and differ in important ways between twins and non-twin families of the same size. Implications for fertility and labor supply policy in Japan are discussed.     

Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

Transition from School to Work in Japan

Using retrospective data of young people's work experience in Japan, this paper found that initial labor market conditions, i.e., when workers first enter the labor market after permanently leaving school, have a significant lasting impact on the employment experiences of workers in their teens and twenties. An increase in the unemployment rate at the time of labor market entry reduces the probability of gaining full-time regular employment and, more important, increases the future probability of workers of leaving employers by lowering the quality of job matches. It was also found that the vocational guidance or recommendations workers received at school could be effective in raising the quality of job matches. The adverse effect of initial unemployment rates on employment opportunities was most profoundly observed among female college graduates. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 465–488. Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University, 1-5-1 Mejiro Toshima-ku, Tokyo 171-8588, Japan; and Faculty of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University, 1-2-37 Shirokane-dai Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8636, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J24, J63, J64.     

Does the early bird catch the worm? Evidence and interpretation on the long-term impact of school entry age in China

The long-term impact of children's age at primary school entry on educational attainment and labor market outcomes is one of the primary concerns to families, educators, and policymakers. Using a nationally representative survey of families and individuals, this paper is among the first to explore these effects in a causal sense in the Chinese context and understand the underlying mechanisms. We use a regression discontinuity (RD) design that employs the threshold date for primary school entry set by the 1986 Compulsory Education Law of China as a source of exogenous variation in the timing of school entry. We first document a salient and robust compliance rate of school entry requirement. RD estimates indicate that being born right after the cutoff date significantly increases years of schooling and annual earnings for non-agricultural jobs for the full sample. We also observe remarkable heterogeneous effects on labor market performance by gender. Being born right after the cutoff increases the probability of being in the labor force for men, but decreases that for women. We find that the decline in female labor force participation is mainly driven by women who come from economically and socially disadvantaged families. Further evidence suggests that this decline can be explained by supply-side factors including fertility decision and childcare provisions.     

Choosy Youth or Unwanted Youth? A Survey of Unemployment

This paper examines structure and change in unemployment in Indonesia from the 1970s through to 1996 The analysis focuses on high unemployment rates among urban youth, set in the context of similar problems experienced in other developing countries. It also deals with some of the conceptual and measurement issues. It is concluded that high youth unemployment is partly a queuing phenomenon among middle class families, related to processes of job search and wage structure. But rates of under-utilisation are also high among children of poorer households in the working age papulation Over time, the paper finds considerable stability in the structure of unemployment, with some tendency for overall rates to increase Some rises in unemplnyment were experienced by youth with either low educational status or tertiary qualifications, and by women Explanations include increased minimum wages and a slowdown in manufacturing activity, although changing definations have also played a part.     

Long-Term Effects of Labour Market Entry Conditions: The Case of Korea

This study investigates the effects of labour market conditions at the time of graduation, proxied by the local unemployment rate, on long-term family and labour market outcomes in Korea. The examination yields four main findings. Labour market entry conditions have strong and persistent effects among high school graduates. Male college graduates have a persistently lower probability of working at large firms if the demand for local labour shrinks at the time of graduation. Self-employment can be persistently hampered by adverse economic conditions at graduation. Family formation and childbearing are temporarily affected by labour market entry conditions, especially for less educated women. The first three findings highlight the notable segmentation of the Korean labour market into protected jobs in large firms – mostly part of business groups (chaebols) – and unprotected jobs.     

R&D,unemployment, and labor market policies

This paper studies the effects of labor market policies on R&D activities and unemployment. I develop a search and matching model in which firms’ R&D decisions are endogenously determined. The model demonstrates that more intensive labor market policies that protect workers reduce the levels of R&D activities. This study offers a theoretical framework to understand the relationship between R&D activities, labor market policies, and unemployment which is discussed in empirical studies.     

Actual age at school entry, educational outcomes, and earnings

This paper reports on the effect of actual age measured by month at school entry on test scores, eventual educational attainment, and labor market outcomes, using school test score data and a labor force survey of Japan. Japan is an ideal country for examining the pure effect of actual age at school entry on eventual years of education because the length of compulsory education does not vary by birth month and legal administrations assure that almost all children follow a fixed schedule of grade progress. Older children of both sexes in a school cohort obtain higher test scores and more education years than their younger counterparts. This better academic performance translates into higher annual earnings among males.     

Unionization,market structure,and economic growth

This article investigates the macroeconomic effects of unionization in a Schumpeterian growth model with an endogenous product market structure and a unionized labor market. The endogeneity of the market structure and the trade unionism of the labor market interact and jointly determine the equilibrium unemployment, firm size, number of firms, economic growth, and distribution of income between workers and firms. We show that unionization governs the distribution of income between workers and firms and the unemployment rate, but it does not give rise to any growth effect on the economy. In addition, unionization discourages potential entrants and hence decreases the equilibrium number of firms. These results echo the empirical observation in the sense that unionization raises unemployment and alters the distribution of income between workers and firms, but it does not give rise to a significant, real impact on the firms’ investment and the economy‐wide growth.     

Life-cycle search,match quality and Japan’s labor market

The Japanese labor market has been experiencing considerable transformations over the recent decades. We analyze the implications of some of these actual and potential transformations, whose impact may not be homogeneous across workers of different ages. We first develop a life-cycle search and matching model which incorporates random match quality as well as elements capturing important institutional features of the Japanese economy. Our model is consistent with the life-cycle properties of Japan’s labor market, namely that the job separation and unemployment rates are U-shaped, whereas the job finding rate declines with age. We then conduct three experiments that are relevant to Japan: a decline in productivity, a removal of the firing costs, and a decline in the population growth. In the first two experiments, we find substantial changes to these three rates, where young workers tend to be the most affected. We observe, however, a very small labor market impact in the third experiment.     

Black women and the job training partnership act

Available data show that JTPA has provided some economically disadvantaged black women with employment and training services. Many black women who had suffered employment setbacks or entry problems during the recession that ended in 1982 need assistance in gaining access to the labor market. This is particularly true of young black women. At the same time, it is not clear from available evidence whether single black women who are supporting families alone and who are considered the core group of impoverishment in the black community have been-or, under the present configuration, can be-served adequately by JTPA.     

Child Labor and the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children

This article analyzes the impacts of child labor on the interaction between the quantity and quality of children in the spirit of Becker and Lewis. It shows that, without child labor, the quantity of children can be a normal good so that it increases with parental income under some fairly standard formulations. However, the correlation between fertility and parental income becomes negative when the role of child labor is considered. The model also implies that fertility increases with the wage rate of child labor. Moreover, it suggests that government intervention not only directly affects the supply of child labor but also influences parents' decisions on fertility, which indirectly determines children's labor market participations.     

A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time-series data on age-specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long-run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age-groups and several alternative model specifications.     

Racial differences in the feminization of poverty

The feminization of poverty refers to female householders and their children becoming an increasing percentage of the poor population. After examining effects of race on poverty of female-headed households from 1959 to 1989, this study investigates statistical relationships among female poverty, economic and labor market conditions, and transfer payments (specifically AFDC) by means of the Granger causality test over the period from 1966 to 1988. This study reinforces the plausible assumption that policies which would lower the unemployment rate of females and would increase real economic growth could be expected to reduce the number of poor female households.     

Labor market deregulation and globalization: empirical evidence from OECD countries

This paper empirically investigates the influence of globalization on various aspects of labor market deregulation. I employ the data set by Bassanini and Duval (2006) on labor market institutions in OECD countries and the KOF index of globalization. The data set covers 20 OECD countries in the 1982–2003 period. The results suggest that globalization did neither influence the unemployment replacement rate, the unemployment benefit length, public expenditures on ALMP, the tax wedge, union density nor overall employment protection. In contrast, protection of regular employment contracts was diminished when globalization was proceeding rapidly. In fact, domestic aspects, such as unemployment and government ideology are more important determinants of labor market institutions and deregulation processes in OECD countries than globalization. For this reason, working conditions of unskilled workers are not likely to deteriorate and the jobs of unskilled workers are not likely to disappear in the course of globalization. All this is, of course, not to insinuate that globalization has any benign influence on labor market institutions.     

Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan

The paper studies the effects of fiscal expansion on the Japanese labor market. First, using a structural VAR model, we find that the unemployment rate falls and employment rises following an increase in government spending. We also find that fiscal expansion affects flows in and out of unemployment. While an increase in government spending increases the job-finding rate, it reduces the separation rate. We then incorporate search and matching frictions into a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, and study whether the model can explain what we observed in data. While the model fails to predict the exact size of the impact of government spending shocks on the Japanese labor market variables, it can consistently capture the empirical pattern of responses of labor market variables to shocks.     

Determinants of Long-Run Unemployment

This paper investigates the determinants of long-run unemployment and growth by extending the endogenous growth model of Howitt and Aghion (1998) to allow for a more general treatment of the labor market in the spirit of Pissarides (1990). We find that (i) both long-run growth and unemployment depend not only on factors that affect long-run growth as identified in endogenous growth models with full employment, but also on certain labor market parameters; (ii) long-run unemployment may rise or fall with growth depending on the model's parameters; and (iii) though government policies that promote growth indirectly through improvement in labor market efficiency always reduce the long-run unemployment rate, policies that directly encourage investment in research and development may increase the unemployment rate.