Rearranging Edgeworth–Cornish–Fisher expansions

This paper applies a regularization procedure called increasing rearrangement to monotonize Edgeworth and Cornish–Fisher expansions and any other related approximations of distribution and quantile functions of sample statistics. In addition to satisfying monotonicity, required of distribution and quantile functions, the procedure often delivers strikingly better approximations to the distribution and quantile functions of the sample mean than the original Edgeworth–Cornish–Fisher expansions.     

Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics

The aim of this article is the study of complex structures which are behind the short-term predictability of stock returns series. In this regard, we employ a seasonal version of the Mackey–Glass–GARCH(p,q) model, initially proposed by Kyrtsou and Terraza (Computat Econ 21:257–276, 2003) and generalized by Kyrtsou (Int J Bifurcat Chaos 15(10):3391–3394, 2005). To unveil short or long memory components and non-linear structures in the French Stock Exchange (CAC40) returns series, we apply the test of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (J Time Ser Anal 4:221–238, 1983), the Brock et al. (Econom Rev 15:197–235, 1996) and Dechert (An application of chaos theory to stochastic and deterministic observations. Working paper, University of Houston, 1995) tests, the correlation-dimension method of Grassberger and Procaccia (Phys 9D:189–208, 1983), the Lyapunov exponents method of Gençay and Dechert (Phys D 59:142–157, 1992), and the Recurrence quantification analysis introduced by Webber and Zbilut (J Appl Physiol 76:965–973, 1994). As a confirmation procedure of the dynamics generating future movements in CAC40, we perform forecast with the use of a seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH(1,1) model. The interest of the forecasting exercise is found in the inclusion of high-dimensional non-linearities in the mean equation of returns.     

Simplifying numerical analyses of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations

We introduce a simple method for computing value functions. The method is demonstrated by solving for transitional dynamics in the Uzawa and Lucas endogenous growth model. We use the value function approach to solve both the social planner??s optimization problem in the centralized economy and the representative agent??s optimization problem in the decentralized economy. The complexity of the Hamilton?CJacobi?CBellman equations is significantly reduced to an initial value problem for one ordinary differential equation. This approach allows us to find the optimal controls for the non-concave Hamiltonian in the centralized case and to identify the symmetric equilibrium in the decentralized case.     

Assessing measurement errors in the CDM research–innovation–productivity relationships

ABSTRACT

The Crépon-Duguet-Mairesse 1998 article, known as CDM, initiated a structural econometric framework to analyze the relationships among research, innovation and productivity, which has been estimated most generally on the basis of cross-sectional innovation survey-type data. Some econometric implementations of the CDM approach have suggested that such data give useful but imprecise measures of the innovation output (share of innovative sales), and to a lesser degree of the innovation input (R&D). These ‘measurement errors’ may result in attenuation biases of the estimated R&D and innovation impact elasticities in the two basic CDM ‘roots’ relations of R&D to innovation and innovation to productivity, as well as in the extended production function à la Griliches linking directly R&D to productivity. Using a panel of three waves of the French Community Innovation Survey (CIS), we assess these biases and the magnitude of the underlying measurement errors, assuming mainly that they are ‘white noise’ errors. We do so by comparing two pairs of usual panel estimators (Total and Between) in both the cross-sectional and time dimensions of the data (Levels and Differences). We find large measurement errors on innovation output in the innovation–productivity equation, resulting in large attenuation biases in the related elasticity parameter. We also find smaller but sizeable measurement errors on R&D, with significant attenuation biases in the corresponding elasticity estimates, in the R&D–innovation equation and the extended production function. Simulations suggest that the measurement errors on innovation and R&D are unaffected by similar measurement errors on the capital variable.     

On locally optimal programs in the Robinson–Solow–Srinivasan model

In the context of a model due to Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan (the RSS model), we report results on the existence and characterization of locally optimal programs, a concept taken from theoretical physics. In particular, we propose a (new) transversality condition under which all locally optimal programs are good. An extended introduction places our theorems in the context of previous work on the existence question, including that on agreeable programs. It appears that there is no completely rational way to attack [the] problem without considering development programmes over an infinite horizon (Gale in Rev Econ Stud 34:1–8, 1967). The analysis of simple models is essential if we are to understand the corresponding situation for more complex models of the economy (Mirrlees and Stern in J Econ Theory 4:268–288, 1972). The technical convenience, for clear and quantitative results, of using an infinite time horizon is rather great (Hammond and Mirrlees in Models of economic growth, Wiley, New York, pp 283–299, 1973).     

Outflows–induced sudden stops

The term ‘sudden stop’ refers to a scenario in which an emerging market is suddenly cut off from international capital markets. Losing access to capital markets can be devastating, often resulting in a currency crisis and recession. However, some sudden stop episodes are driven not by global investors heading for the exits, but rather by locals increasing their international claims. The source of the problem determines the policy response. To better focus on sources rather than outcomes, sudden stops should be identified as a cessation of inflows (inflows‐induced) or a sudden surge in outflows (outflows‐induced).     

The quarterly national accounts trend–cycle filter versus model–based filters

Abstract. In this paper, we first review the Spanish Quarterly National Accounts (Sqna) trend–cycle filter and give a formula to compute the first component of the filter that corrects an error in the expression that has been used in the Sqna System so far. Then, the results obtained with this last filter are compared to the ones obtained using the Tramo andSeats programs, which apply a model–based methodology. It is concluded that the {\sc Sqna} filter presents some problems, such us the generation of spurious cycles, a phase delay, non–efficient initial conditions and larger estimation errors, which can be avoided if model–based filters are used. A Hodrick–Prescott filter with a suitable smoothing parameter is proposed to smooth trend–cycle series that are somewhat volatile and have been obtained with model–based filters. In this way, smooth signals can be obtained that are free of spurious cycles.     

Social Mobility: The Barro–Becker Children Meet the Laitner–Loury Dynasties

I compare the predictions of two types of dynastic models for the persistence of wealth across generations: models that focus on uninsurable risk and intergenerational consumption smoothing but abstract from the fertility decision, such as Loury and Laitner, and models without risk that focus on the fertility decision, such as Becker and Barro. I show that when both uninsurable risk and fertility decisions are present, a striking result obtains: wealthier parents have more children, but the transfer to each child is independent of wealth. Since this result is counterfactual, I also discuss extensions that can resurrect persistence.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C61, D31, D1, J13     

Price–value deviations: further evidence from input–output data of Japan

This paper subjects to empirical testing the labour theory of value using input–output data from the economy of Japan for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985 and 1990. The results of the analysis show that labour values and prices of production are extremely good approximations to market prices. In fact, the proximity of prices of production to market prices is closer than that of labour values, a result which suggests that prices of production constitute more concrete centres of gravitation for market prices. Furthermore, we find that prices of production change as a result of variations in income distribution more often than not in a monotonic way and that in fewer cases they display curvatures, which may even reverse the order between prices of production and values.     

A new approach to estimation of the R&D–innovation–productivity relationship

ABSTRACT

We apply a generalized structural equation model approach to the estimation of the relationship between R&D, innovation and productivity that focuses on the potentially crucial heterogeneity across sectors. The model accounts for selectivity and handles the endogeneity of this relationship in a recursive framework which allows for feedback effects from productivity to future R&D investment. Our approach enables the estimation of the different equations as one system, allowing the coefficients to differ across sectors, and also permits us to take cross-equation correlation of the errors into account. Employing a panel of Swedish manufacturing and service firms observed in three consecutive Community Innovation Surveys in the period 2008–2012, our full-information maximum likelihood estimates show that many key channels of influence among the model's components vary meaningfully in their statistical significance and magnitude across six different sectors based on the OECD classification on technological and knowledge intensity. These results cast doubt on earlier research which does not allow for sectoral heterogeneity.     

Nonlinearities in Capital–Skill Complementarity

This paper uses a novel dataset to test the capital–skill complementarity hypothesis in a cross-section of countries. It is shown that for the full sample there exists evidence in favor of the hypothesis. When we arbitrarily split the full sample into OECD and non-OECD countries, we find no evidence in favor of the hypothesis for the OECD subsample, but strong evidence for the non-OECD subsample. When we use Hansens [Econometrica 68 (2000) P. 576] endogenous threshold methodology we find that initial literacy rates and initial per capita output are threshold variables that can cluster countries into three distinct regimes that obey different statistical models. In particular, the regime with moderate initial per capita income but low initial education exhibits substantially higher capital–skill complementarity than the regime with low income and low education and the regime with high education. This cross-country nonlinearity in capital–skill complementarity is consistent with the time-series nonlinearity found by Goldin and Katz [Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (1998) 693] using U.S. manufacturing data, and promotes the view that the phenomenon maybe a transitory one.JEL classification: O40, O47     

Effective rates of protection and the Fordney–McCumber and Smoot–Hawley Tariff Acts

This study presents the first calcualtions of effective rates of protection for 1920, 1923 and the first and second half of 1930 for the United States economy disaggregated to 39 sectors. The calculated changes in the effective on the United States economy of the Emergency and Fordney–McCumber tariff acts of 1921 and 1922 and of the Smooth–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

The results suggest that the Emergency and Fordney–McCumber tariff acts resulted in a much larger increase in the level of protection given to American industry than the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Further, the results indicate that Smoot-Hawley had a small effect on the level of protection.     

Bank–firms topology in Italy

An empirical analysis of the Italian system of banks and firms is carried out using the network theory. The emerging architecture of this economic network shows peculiar behaviors: (i) Multiple lending is very widespread; (ii) Small firms are preferentially financed by small banks; (iii) Large firms are financed by many banks; (iv) the ratio between loans and deposits is much higher for large banks than for small banks, while (v) strong size heterogeneity appears among co-financing banks, and (vi) the spanning-tree is very hierarchical.