关于国际铸币税收益的再探讨

铸币税是一个国家的中央银行凭借着发行货币的权利而得到的一种类似于税收的收益,而国际铸币税则是一个国家凭借着本国货币的国际储备货币地位所获得一种类似于国内铸币税收益。国际铸币税收益有流量和存量之分,美国凭借着美元的主要国际储备货币地位获得了巨额的国际铸币税收益。但是,国际铸币税在性质上是一种债务,一旦美国经济地位下降,美国将返还以前的国际铸币税收益,从而有可能对持有美元的国家造成重大损失,也可能对美国经济带来严重的不利影响。     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.     

From the Gold Standard to a Bipolar Monetary System

This paper argues that the international monetary system will evolve into a bipolar structure consisting of a dollar area and a euro area, each of which attracting other countries to their gravitational centers. A deepening and widening of NAFTA and the EU will enlarge the sphere of influence of both currencies; trade wars will restrict them. The yen is a big question mark. The deep and still unresolved financial crisis in Japan works against the enlargement of the yen; deregulation of its financial markets, with the attendant decline in transaction costs, goes in the opposite direction. Our conclusion is that the yen area will be much smaller than the dollar and the euro area and, consequently, the two large blocs will shape the international monetary system of the 21st century in a critical way. We also discuss feasible scenarios of interaction between currency blocs. A large EMU works in favor of cooperation because fewer players imply lower decision-making costs in reaching a cooperative solution. The relative closeness of the EMU and the United States, on the other hand, works against cooperation and in favor of benign neglect. Exchange-rate agreements are fragile unless supported by strong commitment to economic policy cooperation, and such a commitment may well be premature. The article advocates that the United States and EMU target common inflation rates, an idea that Keynes proposed back in 1923.     

欧洲债务危机:原因、症结与出路

欧洲债务危机的发生既有内部原因又有外部原因。内部原因有欧元制度设计缺陷、危机国家政策失误、福利制度等,外部原因有金融危机影响、美元势力打压等。欧债危机的症结表现为六大矛盾,即欧元区国家与非欧元区国家之间的矛盾、欧元区内部发生危机国家与未发生危机国家之间的矛盾、援助国之间的矛盾、援助国内部的矛盾、债务国内部的矛盾、欧元与美元之间的矛盾。解决欧债危机必须多策并举:欧洲内部需要树立自信、增强他信,改革欧元、实施统一财政政策,保增长、促发展,改革福利制度;对外则需加强与美元势力的斗争,寻求中国等新兴工业化国家援助。     

The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?

This paper analyzes how country size affects exchange rate policy and volatility. A hump shaped relation between exchange rate variability and the size of countries is generated in the theoretical model: exchange rate variability increases with country size for small countries but then decreases for large countries. The paper finds that this theoretical prediction holds well for bilateral exchange rates of the OECD countries in the period between 1980 and 1995 as well as for a subsample of European exchange rates with respect to the dollar. The results suggest that the dollar/euro volability may be lower than the present dollar/DM volatility.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 455–482. CERAS-ENPC, Graduate Institute of International Studies, and CEPR, 28 rue des Saints Pères, Paris 75007, France.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F33, F41, F42.     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

TRADE PATTERNS AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: TESTING THE ASIAN CURRENCY BASKET USING AN INTERNATIONAL INPUT‐OUTPUT SYSTEM

This paper aims at analyzing exchange rates and trade patterns of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, China, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in relation to Japan and the United States, with reference to the Asian currency crises in 1997. In order to analyze these issues, we constructed an international input‐output model linked with macroeconometric models of the ten countries/regions. Analyses on the Asian exchange rates with a currency basket peg framework show that the Asian exchange rate policy was the de‐facto dollar peg policy. As for trade patterns in relation to the yen‐dollar rate; when a country/region's industrial structure is similar to that of Japan's and the yen is weak, the appropriate change of the yen's weight proves to hold its competitiveness. By contrast, the weak yen shows a decrease of its imports, regarding complementary structure. In either case, however, effects are limited.     

美国量化宽松政策的溢出效应及对中国的影响

次贷危机爆发后,美联储为促进经济复苏,采取了扩张性财政政策和货币政策及非常规的量化宽松政策,向经济注入大量的流动性。现行的国际货币体系是以美元为主导的国际货币体系,美元作为国家货币充当国际货币使得位于中心的美国获得了铸币税,而其它国家则更多地承担了通货膨胀和金融危机的成本。当前美国量化宽松货币政策的溢出效应对中国的影响包括通货膨胀、人民币升值压力和外汇储备的损失。     

欧洲主权债务危机的内生性与外生性研究

南欧成员国社会福利过度造成的财政支出扩张与经济停滞导致的财政收入收缩是欧洲主权债务危机的内生性成因。美国因素是欧洲主权债务危机的重要外生性解释变量。美国试图通过债务危机打压欧元是为了巩固美元的全球霸权。即使欧洲主权债务危机在短期内对于欧元产生了一定的冲击,但在长期仍有可能造就一个更强大的欧元。     

China's Exchange Rate Movements and Corporate Currency Invoicing Strategies

Since China introduced a new managed floating exchange rate regime in 2005, the persistent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has led Chinese firms to reassess their choice of invoice currency among the dollar and other international alternatives to price their exports. The present paper performs a systematic invoice currency analysis by surveying the published literature, summarizing criteria for decision-making, and evaluating the choices available to Chinese exporters implementing currency invoicing strategies to maximize expected profits. This study finds that the euro could play an increasing role as the invoice currency of Chinese firms, although the US dollar will still play a dominant role. Chinese exporters might shift gradually from the dollar to the euro in the face of the falling dollar, balancing between the two by necessity.     

Monetary Integration In Eastern And Southern Africa: Choosing A Currency Peg For Comesa

African countries involved in monetary integration projects have been advised to peg their currencies against an external anchor before the definite fixing of exchange rates. In this study, we estimate optimum currency area indices to determine, between four alternatives, which international currency would be the most suitable anchor for Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) members and for a set of other selected African economies. We conclude that the euro and the British pound prevail over the US dollar or the yen; that the euro would be the best pegging for most, but not all, COMESA members; and that some of these economies display evidence of more intense integration with third countries, with which they share membership in other (overlapping) regional economic communities, than within COMESA.     

An equilibrium foundation of the Soros chart

The most prominent characteristic of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate in the post-Plaza Accord era is near random-walk behavior sharing a common stochastic trend with the two-country monetary base differential augmented with excess reserves. In this paper, we develop a simple two-country incomplete-market model equipped with domestic reserve markets to structurally investigate this anecdotal evidence known as the Soros chart. In this model, we theoretically verify that a market discount factor close to one generates near random-walk behavior of an equilibrium nominal exchange rate in accordance with a permanent component of the augmented monetary base differential as an economic fundamental. Results of a Bayesian posterior simulation with post-Plaza Accord data of Japan and the United States plausibly support our model as a data generating process of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The model identifies the two-country differential in money demand shocks as the main generator of the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar under the Abenomics. We discuss data evidence that the identified money demand shocks are tightly correlated with longer-term interest rate differentials between the two countries.     

Monetary Unions in Historical Perspective: What Future for the Euro in the International Financial System

This paper discusses the introduction of the euro in the present international monetary context. European Monetary Union is not only an economic concept but also primarily a political one. Based on past experience, two aspects of monetary union seem essential: the nature of the future European Central Bank and the necessity that monetary union is implemented with a fiscal union. The euro's success on world markets, as a dollar substitute, depends on monetary authorities' credibility in targeting low-inflation, and on fiscal authorities' reputation. A central bank that does not respond to a political authority can cause social difficulties, especially if social policies are left in the hands of single countries and fiscal transfers, to support these policies, are not allowed     

Implications of the effective revaluation of reserve asset gold: The case for a gold account for development

International agreement was reached in the early 1970s that the future creation of international reserves would be largely via SDR allocations, to be distributed to individual countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. In this manner, the international monetary system would play a ‘neutral’ role in the creation and distribution of international reserves. It has become increasingly apparent in recent years, however, that the international monetary system has been far from neutral in its distribution of international liquidity. The de facto revaluation of reserve asset gold has led to a massive creation of international reserves — nearly $500 billion by the end of 1979 — which has served to benefit almost exclusively the major gold-holding countries, all among the wealthiest of the industrialized nations.Unlike the major gold-holding countries, which throughout the Bretton Woods era converted two-thirds of their foreign exchange holdings into gold, the large majority of developing countries acted on the basis of the United States pledge that the dollar was ‘as good as gold’. As a result, the quantitative analysis presented in this paper shows that developing countries have foregone reserve holdings in excess of $100 billion. To partially redress the inequitable distribution of international reserves which has arisen from the de facto revaluation of reserve asset gold — and at the same time to promote a significant transfer of resources to developing countries — this paper proposes the establishment of a ‘Gold Account for Development’ based on official gold holdings, outlines the various forms which such an account might take, and discusses the political acceptability of the proposals.     

Should East Asia’s currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency

Growing concern that a dollar peg exposes East Asian economies to fluctuations in the dollar–yen exchange rate has stimulated research on currency basket regimes as alternatives for these economies. However, existing studies have mostly ignored an important characteristic of East Asia, i.e., most of its international trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollars. This paper investigates how the preponderance of dollar invoicing affects optimal currency basket regimes for East Asian economies. I develop a three-country center-periphery sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the analysis. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximations to the policy functions with the expected lifetime utility of households chosen as the welfare criterion. Contrary to the conjecture of existing literature, I show that predominance of dollar invoicing implies that the dollar should receive a smaller weight than suggested by bilateral trade shares between emerging markets in East Asia and the United States. The results hinge on the interaction of different degrees of pass-through implied by the choice of invoice currency and endogenous responses of monetary policies in the center countries.     

从债权国到债务国——美国国际债务模式转变的逻辑分析

国际债务危机最初都是起源于发展中国家,发展中国家是国际债务人。进入21世纪,国际债务模式呈现出新的变化,国际债务危机从"外围"向"中心"扩散;债务危机的形式由公司债务危机向主权债务危机转变,美国由原来世界最大债权国转变成为世界最大债务国,中国作为发展中国家已成为世界债权大国。美国国际债务模式转变的内在逻辑直接反映出发达国家利用债务对实施开放经济的发展中国家进行利益转移。中国作为债权国面临着诸多挑战,维护债权国利益是当务之急。     

Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate

This paper analyses how productivity differentials between the United States and the euro area drive the euro-dollar real exchange rate. We derive impulse responses from a two-sector new open economy macro (NOEM) model. These are used as sign restrictions to identify a structural vector autoregression. Our results show that the Balassa–Samuelson effect, through traded sector productivity shocks, is less important in explaining the variation in the euro-dollar exchange rate than are demand and nominal shocks. In particular, productivity can explain part of the appreciation of the dollar in the late 1990s only to the extent that it created a boost to aggregate demand in the United States. JEL no. F41, F31     

Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment: BW II dynamics

Recent attempts to explain the dynamics of adjustment of dollar exchange rates in the face of an anticipated deterioration of the US net international investment position have focused on portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination. In this paper we argue that such models are useful in understanding the behavior of dollar exchange rates with emerging market currencies but, consistent with a large body of empirical research, are not useful in understanding changes in the dollars value against the euro or the currencies of other developed countries. We conclude that portfolio preferences of governments of emerging markets provide the most plausible explanation for the persistent US current account deficit.     

Deflation,Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880–1914 Period

In this paper we examine the sources and impact of deflation on the growth experiences of the four dominant countries on the gold standard in the period 1880–1913: the United States, The United Kingdom, France and Germany. We distinguish between good deflation, (driven by positive aggregate supply shocks) and bad deflation (driven by aggregate demand shocks). We use an empirical Blanchard/Quah model which decomposes the behaviour of prices, output and the money stock into the impact of shocks such as a world price level shock, a domestic supply shock, and domestic demand shocks including a shock to the domestic gold stock. Our key finding is that the European economies were essentially classic in the sense that output was mainly supply driven and that money was neutral even when country specific gold stocks are included. In the United States, however, we observe both good and bad deflation.     

经济危机下新贸易保护主义盛行及应对措施

新贸易保护主义的主要目的是适应本国政治、经济需要,维护在国际竞争中的支配地位;其理论依据、政策手段、目标对象和实施效果都与传统的贸易保护主义有着显著的区别。在经济全球化的时代,特别是当今世界经济危机下的特定时代,发达国家,特别是美国,频频采取表面与国际贸易规则不直接冲突的所谓的"公平贸易"面目出现的各种保护措施,使经济危机下本已严峻的经济形势更加困难,延缓了全球贸易自由化的进程。新贸易保护主义的盛行,不利于我国外贸的长期稳定发展,增加了我国经济运行的外部风险。突破新贸易保护主义的障碍,已成为中国外贸出口的当务之急。