ORGANISATIONAL COMMITMENT IN THE POLICE SERVICE: EXPLORING THE EFFECTS OF PERFORMANCE MEASURES,PROCEDURAL JUSTICE AND INTERPERSONAL TRUST

This study aims to investigate whether, and how, the use of performance measures, procedural justice, and interpersonal trust interact to affect organisational commitment of police officers. Drawing on a survey based on a sample of 57 senior officers within a single police force, we find that the use of performance measures, procedural justice, and interpersonal trust are positively associated with organisational commitment. Further analysis reveals that trust between officer and superior mediates the relationship between the use of non‐financial measures and organisational commitment, but procedural justice does not have a mediating effect on commitment. These findings are further explored through selected interviews with respondents.     

The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis

We survey 1,050 Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) in the U.S., Europe, and Asia to directly assess whether their firms are credit constrained during the global financial crisis of 2008. We study whether corporate spending plans differ conditional on this survey-based measure of financial constraint. Our evidence indicates that constrained firms planned deeper cuts in tech spending, employment, and capital spending. Constrained firms also burned through more cash, drew more heavily on lines of credit for fear banks would restrict access in the future, and sold more assets to fund their operations. We also find that the inability to borrow externally caused many firms to bypass attractive investment opportunities, with 86% of constrained U.S. CFOs saying their investment in attractive projects was restricted during the credit crisis of 2008. More than half of the respondents said they canceled or postponed their planned investments. Our results also hold in Europe and Asia, and in many cases are stronger in those economies. Our analysis adds to the portfolio of approaches and knowledge about the impact of credit constraints on real firm behavior.     

Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: Is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query “financial crisis”) contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers’ credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.     

Firm Performance and CEO Reputation Costs: New Evidence from the Venezuelan Banking Crisis

When searching for outside directors, the performance of the candidate as a manager of other firms is important. Using a sample of Venezuelan banks during a systemic crisis, we find that the outside directorships of chief executive officers (CEOs) are negatively affected by banks' performances, measured by their default risk. Our results suggest that a CEOs' personal monitoring talents are what is being purchased when CEOs are appointed as outside directors. In addition, the negative effect of firms' performances on their CEOs' reputations is significantly stronger in an emerging market, suggesting that CEO reputation helps to control for managerial agency costs when other governance mechanisms are absent. The size of the bank has a positive effect on CEO reputation, which partially offsets the negative reputation effect of the bank risk.     

Loan officers and loan ‘delinquency’ in Microfinance: A Zambian case

The paper seeks to promote greater understanding of the importance of loan officers in group-based microfinance by explaining their actual roles, dilemmas and tensions when working with poor clients. Few existing studies have used data outside Bangladesh and most focus upon relatively well-performing institutions. Using data from Zambia this study focuses on the recent crisis of Christian Enterprise Trust of Zambia (CETZAM) and the effects of its practices for accounting for and dealing with defaulters. The findings firstly show that loan officers faced powerful hierarchical accountability pressures and pursued inappropriate methods to compel further repayments to resolve this crisis. Its approach to borrower default was found to be stressful for loan officers and potentially detrimental for CETZAM's own short and long-term survival by reducing client loyalty and trust.     

Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission

Globalization of banking raises questions about banks’ liquidity management, their response to liquidity shocks, and the potential for international shock propagation. We conjecture that global banks manage liquidity on a global scale, actively using cross‐border internal funding in response to local shocks. Having global operations insulates banks from changes in monetary policy, while banks without global operations are more affected by monetary policy than previously found. We provide direct evidence that internal capital markets are active in global banks and contribute to the international propagation of shocks. This feature was at play during the financial crisis of 2007–2009.     

Expert assessment of the performance of the US system for environmental regulation

A questionnaire was developed and administered to four groups of experts in order to assess their views about the attributes of ‘an ideal regulatory system’ and determine the extent to which they believe the current US system for regulating criteria air pollutants and surface water quality conforms to that ideal. A linear multi-attribute utility score was developed for each respondent and for groups identified as: academia, government, industry, and non-governmental organizations. There is considerable agreement among respondents, although some groups identify different primary attributes of regulation as more important, assigning significantly different weights. On average, respondents assess the US system for regulating criteria air pollution as operating at only 38% of their ideal; water survey respondents score current mean performance of the US regulatory system at 35% of their ideal. Asked to assess how well the current US system could be made to operate ‘without fundamental changes,’ respondents scored potential maximum performance at between 52% and 64%, still short of ideal, but a significant increase in the existing performance.     

What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25,000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is examined within a dynamic investment model. Robust GMM estimates of the investment rate model reveal a high degree of heterogeneity among these sectors. Overall uncertainty affects negatively investment performance and this effect substantially increased in the years of crisis. Agriculture and Mining are the least affected and the most affected ones include Manufacturing, Real Estate and Hotels. Focusing on the response of investment to uncertainty, it emerges that (relative) smaller firms are affected more compared to larger ones.     

Bank productivity growth and convergence in the European Union during the financial crisis

This paper examines the bank productivity growth and integration process for the 28 EU countries during three main phases of the financial crisis: the U.S. subprime crisis (2007–2008), the global financial crisis (2009–2010) and the sovereign debt crisis (2010–2012). We extend the Malmquist Productivity Index by applying an additive two-stage DEA model. This allows us to explore the sources of growth in different stages of production. Furthermore, we assess the integration of European banks by analyzing the β-convergence and σ-convergence of the two-stage Productivity Index. Our results show a productivity growth during the U.S. subprime crisis, but a consistent decline during the global financial crisis. The loss of competitiveness of the European banking system is due to the drop in growth of the performance stage and technical change. Finally, we find a strong convergence pattern during the financial crisis, mainly driven by the catch up process of some Eastern countries and the drop in performance of Western countries.     

Bidding behavior in the SNB’s repo auctions

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) provides reserves to market participants via fixed rate tender auctions. We analyze the banks’ bidding behavior and identify the determinants for the decision to participate as well as on the amount to tender. We find that a bank’s bids from the previous day, the amount of maturing repo operations with the SNB as well as the maturing volume on the interbank repo market have for most banks a significant effect. The autonomous factors (government balances at the SNB and currency in circulation) are of only minor importance. A further determinant is the attractiveness of the SNB’s auction rate compared to the prevailing interbank market repo rate. Further, the question is addressed whether the bidding behavior changed in the financial market crisis of 2007/2008. There is little evidence of a systematic change in bidding behavior in the crisis. This results from the fact that the SNB has addressed the volatile demand for reserves in the crisis with overnight fine-tuning operations.     

The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle

We examine how the banking sector could ignite the formation of asset price bubbles when there is access to abundant liquidity. Inside banks, to induce effort, loan officers are compensated based on the volume of loans. Volume-based compensation also induces greater risk taking; however, due to lack of commitment, loan officers are penalized ex post only if banks suffer a high enough liquidity shortfall. Outside banks, when there is heightened macroeconomic risk, investors reduce direct investment and hold more bank deposits. This ‘flight to quality’ leaves banks flush with liquidity, lowering the sensitivity of bankers’ payoffs to downside risks and inducing excessive credit volume and asset price bubbles. The seeds of a crisis are thus sown.     

信息不对称视角下的中小企业融资困境分析

近年来在央行货币政策趋紧的背景下,中小企业融资难的呼声越来越高,在中小企业密集的长三角、珠三角地区出现了倒闭潮,其生存状况甚至比金融危机的时候还要艰难。针对该情况,本文从信息不对称的视角,分析了商业银行与中小企业、商业银行信贷人员与商业银行、中介机构与商业银行、中小企业与民间资本这四重信息不对称关系,借助海英纳模型,得出解决信息不对称是缓解中小企业融资困境的重要环节,并提出相应的建议。     

The influence of loan officers on loan contract design and performance

We investigate the extent to which loan officers generate independent, individual effects on the design and performance of syndicated loans. We construct a large database containing the identities of loan officers involved in structuring syndicated loan deals, allowing us to systematically disentangle borrower, bank, and loan officer fixed effects. We find that loan officers have significant influence on interest spreads, loan covenant design, and loan performance. Inclusion of borrower fixed effects increases our power to rule out the alternative that loan officer fixed effects reflect the matching of officerds to borrowers based on time-invariant borrower characteristics. We document heterogeneity in loan officers’ influence across loan contract terms, with loan officers exerting stronger influence over covenant package design than over interest spreads, but marginal influence on loan maturity. Lead officers have greater influence than participant officers over covenant package design and loan performance, but less robust differential influence on interest spreads.     

Market Risk of Developed and Emerging Countries During the Global Financial Crisis

This study compares the performance of the widely used risk measure, value at risk (VaR), across a large sample of developed and emerging countries. The performance of VaR is assessed using both the unconditional and conditional tests of Kupiec and Christoffersen, respectively, as well as the quadratic loss function. The results indicate that VaR performs much more poorly when measuring the risk of developed countries than of emerging ones. One possible reason might be the deeper initial impact of the global financial crisis on developed countries. The results also provide evidence of the decoupling of the market risk of emerging and developed countries during the global financial crisis.     

Replenishing the Banking Sector: Managing Bank Capital in the Post-Crisis World*

In the wake of the current financial crisis, there is a renewed focus on capital adequacy in the banking sector. A combination of impending regulatory changes, evolving views on both the level and composition of capital, the need to manage capital to stress-case scenarios, and the valuation implications of pro-cyclical versus counter-cyclical strategies will require banks to rethink their capital strategy in the postcrisis world. In this report, the authors (1) attempt to quantify the potential impact of further stresses on bank balance sheets and assess the magnitude of capital requirements for U.S. banks; (2) shed light on bank valuation dynamics; and (3) provide an analytical and empirical framework for measuring optimal equity capital buffers.     

La eficiencia técnica de los bancos durante la crisis Caso aplicado a la rentabilidad de la banca comercial en México y Chile

This paper aims to determine evidence about the efficiency of commercial banks under crisis periods when compared against their regular operating periods. Particularly, the Chilean and Mexican banking industries are reviewed by an innovated Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology. Conclusive evidence of an increase in efficiency for the incumbent banks under crisis periods is presented, as measured by their Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). Finally, evidence is found showing that when considering the banks that are more efficient during the whole period of analysis, their better performance is focused during the crisis periods, measured by their ROA and ROE as performance indexes. In most cases, banks that were more efficient during the previous-to-crisis period, had a lower performance during the crisis periods.     

Perceptions and characteristics of financial statement users in developing countries: Evidence from Iran

We examine the perceptions and characteristics of users of corporate financial statements in Iran. We provide evidence based on a survey of seven different user-groups. Our results suggest that annual reports are regularly used as a basis for making investment and other economic decisions. As in many developing countries, users depend more heavily on information obtained from the published annual reports than on advice from stockbrokers and acquaintances or on tips and rumors. While respondents differed in their rating of the importance of different sections of the annual report, the overall results showed that they ranked the income statement, the auditors’ report, and the balance sheet as the three most important parts of the annual report (in that order). There is a weak level of consensus among bank loan officers, tax officers, and auditor groups about the importance of several information items. Most users believe that a delay in publishing annual reports, lack of reliability of the information, and lack of adequate disclosure are the main concerns with corporate financial reports in Iran. The evidence on Iran is relevant to other developing countries in the Middle East and beyond.     

Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of LTROs during the Great Recession

In response to the 2008–2009 crisis, faced with distressed financial intermediaries, the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked in longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) with full allotment. Using an estimated DSGE model with a frictional banking sector, we find that such liquidity injections have played a key role in averting a major credit crunch. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, absent these nonconventional measures, output, consumption, investment, and the GDP deflator would have been 2.5%, 0.5%, 9.7%, and 0.5% lower on average over 2009, respectively.     

Nonlinear incentives and mortgage officers’ decisions

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, banks should ensure that their incentive compensation policies appropriately balance long-term risk with short-term rewards. Using daily output data from mortgage officers in a US commercial bank, we test the notion that nonlinear contracts create time-varying incentives for the employees and impose costs on the firm. We provide empirical evidence that mortgage officers greatly increase their output toward the end of each month, when the minimum monthly quota is assessed. This occurs through a combination of reducing the processing time and approving some marginal applications. We also find that mortgages originated on the last working day of the month have a higher likelihood of delinquency.     

Interconnected multilayer networks: Quantifying connectedness among global stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper proposes a novel interconnected multilayer network framework based on variance decomposition and block aggregation technique, which can be further served as a tool of linking and measuring cross-market and within-market contagion. We apply it to quantifying connectedness among global stock and foreign exchange (forex) markets, and demonstrate that measuring volatility spillovers of both stock and forex markets simultaneously could support a more comprehensive view for financial risk contagion. We find that (i) stock markets transmit the larger spillovers to forex markets, (ii) the French stock market is the largest risk transmitter in multilayer networks, while some Asian stock markets and most forex markets are net risk receivers, and (iii) interconnected multilayer networks could signal the financial instability during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Our work provides a new perspective and method for studying the cross-market risk contagion.