Health Selection and the Effect of Smoking on Mortality

We show that individuals who are in poorer health, independently from smoking, are more likely to start smoking and to smoke more cigarettes than those with better non‐smoking‐related health. We present evidence of selection, relying on extensive data on morbidity and mortality. We show that health‐based selection into smoking has increased over the last 50 years with knowledge of its health effects. We show that the effect of smoking on mortality is greater for more highly educated individuals and for individuals in good non‐smoking‐related health.     

The impact of the Self‐Sufficiency Project on the employment behaviour of former welfare recipients

Abstract The Self‐Sufficiency Project (SSP) was a Canadian randomized trial in which the program group had 12 months to find full‐time employment in order to qualify for a subsidy that roughly doubled their pre‐tax earnings for the next three years. We find evidence of significant impacts of SSP on non‐employment and employment durations. For the treated group, simulation results show an impact on the employment rate at 52 months after random assignment in the range of 7 to 11 percentage points; this is approximately a 25% increase in the employment rate compared with having no treatment in place.     

Traffic accidents,deaths and alcohol consumption

The main goal of this article is to analyse the relationship existing among prices of alcoholic beverages, alcohol consumption and traffic fatalities for the Spanish Autonomous Communities during the time interval 1998 to 2002. Among the main results, we highlight a positive correlation between alcohol consumption and traffic mortality rate. Basically, governments implement two kinds of policies to reduce the traffic mortality rate. One is oriented to control the supply of alcohol by increasing alcohol taxes. The other is oriented to preserve traffic security, increasing the number of sanctions for traffic rule infraction. We find evidence that both policies exert a positive influence in the reduction of traffic fatalities. There is no empirical evidence to indicate that being a novice driver increases the tendency to be involved in a mortal traffic accident.     

AIDS mortality and its effect on the labor market: Evidence from South Africa

This paper investigates how HIV/AIDS has impacted the labor market in South Africa, focusing on its effect on wages and employment. This is done by matching individual level data with group specific cumulative AIDS mortality rates. Exploiting the panel nature of the data, I remove individuals whose productivity is most likely impacted by HIV/AIDS, and find evidence that cumulative AIDS mortality has led to reductions in wages of between 3 and 6% for the African population group (Black South Africans). Furthermore, I also find evidence that the epidemic has lowered employment in South Africa. This result is concentrated among those with the lowest levels of education and employment. Although not large in magnitude, these effects are widespread across a significant portion of the population, contributing to a substantial loss of income throughout the South African economy.     

Reversal of gender gaps in child development: Evidence from young children in India

This paper provides unique evidence of a reversal of gender gaps in cognitive development in early childhood. We find steep caste and gender gradients and few substantive changes once children enter school. The gender gap, however, reverses its sign for the upper caste, with girls performing better than boys at age 5 but thereafter following the general pattern in India of boys performing better.     

The intergenerational transmission of education: Evidence from Taiwanese adoptions

This paper examines the causal effect of parental schooling on children’s schooling using a large sample of adoptees from Taiwan. Using birth-parents’ education to help control for selective placement of children with adoptive parents, we find that adoptees raised with more highly educated parents have higher educational attainment, measured by years of schooling and probability of university graduation. We also find evidence that adoptive father’s schooling is more important for sons’ and adoptive mother’s schooling is more important for daughters’ educational attainment. These results support the notion that family environment (nurture) is important in determining children’s educational outcomes, independent of genetic endowment.     

Causal Effects of Paternity Leave on Children and Parents

Reserving a share of the parental leave period for fathers is considered necessary in order to induce fathers to take leave, and to increase men's participation in child‐rearing. We investigate how a parental leave reform directed towards fathers affected leave‐taking, and, in turn, children's and parents' long‐term outcomes. A paternal leave quota greatly increases the share of men taking paternity leave. We find evidence that children's school performance improves as a result, particularly in families where the father has higher education than the mother. We find no evidence that paternity leave counters the traditional allocation of parents' labor supply.     

The role of low expectations in health and education investment and hazardous consumption

Abstract .  Young people with little 'social or health capital' may be more likely to take up hazardous consumption and shun investments in human capital, raising their likelihood of a 'rags to rags' sequence. First, diminishing marginal utility could raise the marginal benefit of hazardous consumption and the cost of investment. But poor youths may also have lower expectations of future success, independent of the choices they make. Lower expectations of success could reduce the future cost of hazardous consumption and benefit of investment. We test the effect of expectations on decisions to smoke, drink hazardously, exercise, and complete high school, using a longitudinal study of youth in New Zealand. We find that 15-year-olds' expectations of success predict the subsequent onset of smoking, lack of exercise, and failure to complete high school, but not hazardous drinking. While some of the influence of expectations can be explained by low social and health capital, IQ, and other factors, expectations retain a direct effect on smoking and exercise once these other factors are controlled for.     

Death and prices

Most experts agree that alcohol abuse has been a major cause of Russia’s soaring mortality rate. But why have ever more Russians been drinking themselves to death? Some attribute this to despair in the face of painful economic change. I present evidence that, in fact, the surge in alcohol‐related deaths – and premature deaths in general – was fuelled by a dramatic fall in the real price of vodka, which dropped 77 percent between December 1990 and December 1994. Variation in vodka prices – both over time and across Russia’s regions – closely matches variation in mortality. Although market competition and weak excise collection help explain the fall in prices, the main reason appears to be populist price regulation during inflationary periods.     

Subjective welfare,isolation, and relative consumption

The recent literature has shown that subjective welfare depends on relative income. Much of the existing evidence comes from developed economies. What remains unclear is whether this is a universal human trait or an artifact of a prosperous, market-oriented lifestyle. Using data from Nepal, a mountainous country where many households still live in relative isolation, we test whether poorer and more isolated households care less about relative consumption. We find that they do not. We investigate possible reasons for this. We reject that it is due to parental concerns regarding the marriage prospects of their children. But we find evidence in support of the reference point hypothesis put forth by psychologists: household heads having migrated out of their birth district still judge the adequacy of their consumption in comparison with households in their district of origin.     

SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS REGULATIONS AND DYNAMIC LABOUR DEMAND: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

We present a dynamic labour demand model where we evaluate the impact of employment regulations on permanent and temporary employment. We consider three different kinds of regulations, namely firing costs, hiring costs and a constraint on temporary contracts. These regulations differently affect the size and composition of employment. The theoretical results are interpreted and questioned on the basis of empirical evidence on the employment effects of the regulation reforms that occurred in the major European countries in the period 1983–1999. The empirical analysis is based on a new set of time‐varying indicators on permanent employment protection, fixed‐term contracts and temporary agency work regulations. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that fixed‐term contracts have been effective stepping‐stones to permanent jobs during the period under observation. On the contrary, flexible temporary agency work regulations seem to induce a substitution of permanent with temporary contracts.     

How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?

This paper develops a theory of optimal fertility behavior under mortality shocks. In an OLG model, young adults determine their optimal fertility, labor supply and life-cycle consumption with both exogenous child and adult mortality risks. We show that a rise in adult mortality exerts an ambiguous effect on both net and total fertility in a general equilibrium framework, while child mortality shocks unambiguously lead to a rise in total fertility, leaving net fertility unchanged. We complement our theory with an empirical analysis using a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the 1980–2004 period, examining the overall effects of the child and adult mortality channels on both total and net fertility. We find child mortality to exert a robust, positive impact on total fertility but no impact on net fertility, whereas a rise in adult mortality is found to negatively influence both total and net fertility. Given the particular demographic profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic (killing essentially young, active adults), we then conclude in favor of an unambiguous negative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on net fertility in SSA.     

Information shocks and cigarette addiction: views from dynamic panels with common structural changes

In this article we attempt to evaluate the impact of various information shocks on cigarette consumption. In contrast to the existing studies, we do not impose any break points a priori. We use recently developed techniques for sample splitting in the data on US cigarette demand, and find that using a time index as a transition variable can cluster cigarette demand into four distinct regimes. In the past four decades a myopic-to-rational switch in cigarette consumption behaviour was observed in response to various anti-smoking information events. In particular, we find strong evidence in support of the rational addiction model in the 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, in line with the theoretical prediction, our estimate of the long-run elasticity is twice as large as the short-run elasticity. Our empirical framework should improve policy makers' understanding of the dynamics of cigarette consumption in response to various anti-smoking campaigns, and stress the role of sound policy making in improving smoking control measures.     

The dynamics of immigrant participation in entitlement programs: evidence from Canada, 1993–2007

Abstract Using uniquely rich Canadian administrative data from the 1993–2007 period, I find no evidence of rising Employment Insurance (EI) participation across recent‐immigrant cohorts and no evidence of rising EI participation with number of years spent in Canada beyond the short period following entrance into the Canadian labour market. I also find little evidence of the rising immigrant participation in Social Assistance (SA), either across recent arrival cohorts or with years in Canada. The results do not appear to be seriously affected by emigration and attrition within each immigrant cohort. While the immigrant participation in traditional ‘welfare’ programs such as Social Assistance has generally declined from 1993 to 2007, I show that Canada Child Tax Benefit and other federal and provincial programs aimed at providing financial assistance to families with children have become a major source of transfer income to immigrant families.     

The dynamics of moonlighting in Russia1

This paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting by the working‐age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory and that a desire to switch jobs expressed in the past is positively related to moonlighting in the present and to actual job changes in the future. We also find that workers who moonlighted as self‐employed in the past represent 26.5 percent of the new self‐employed. These results suggest that moonlighting in Russia can be seen as an effective incubator for setting up new self‐employed businesses, thereby providing long‐term benefits for the economy.     

A dynamic‐efficiency rationale for public investment in the health of the young

In this paper we assume away standard distributional and static‐efficiency arguments for public health and instead seek a dynamic efficiency rationale. We study a lifecycle model wherein young agents make health investments to reduce mortality risk. We identify a welfare rationale for public health under dynamic efficiency and exogenous mortality even when private and public investments are perfect substitutes. If health investment reduces mortality risk but individuals do not internalize its effect on the life‐annuity interest rate, the “Philipson‐Becker effect” emerges; when the young are net borrowers, this works together with dynamic efficiency to support a role for public health.     

PERCEIVED ARSENIC‐RELATED MORTALITY RISKS FOR SMOKERS AND NON‐SMOKERS

Prolonged ingestion of arsenic in drinking water can increase the risks of dying of lung and bladder cancer, particularly for smokers. In a survey of arsenic hotspots in the United States, we elicited individuals' subjective mortality risks related to the presence of arsenic in drinking water. Using this data, we address whether smokers perceive mortality risks from this source differently from non‐smokers. We find that those who have smoked at some point in their life have significantly higher perceived arsenic mortality risks than those who have never smoked, on average. We also find that the sample group of current smokers has higher average perceived arsenic mortality risks than those who have quit smoking. We model the decision to treat water for arsenic and find some evidence that current smokers are less likely to engage in this mitigating behavior than are ex‐smokers or non‐smokers even though their perceived risk is higher. We infer that smokers are either less risk averse or have a higher rate of time preference than non‐smokers and ex‐smokers. (JEL I0, D81, Q53)     

Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Growth*

We explore the hypothesis that demographic changes which began in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries are at the root of the acceleration in growth rates at the dawn of the modern age. During this period, life tables for Geneva and Venice show a decline in adult mortality; French marriage registers reveal an important increase in literacy; historians measure an acceleration of economic growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with a realistic survival law in which rising longevity increases individual incentives to invest in education and fosters growth. We quantitatively estimate that the observed improvements in adult mortality account for 70% of the growth acceleration in the pre‐industrial age.     

ON THE USE OF PANEL DATA METHODS TO ESTIMATE RATIONAL ADDICTION MODELS

This paper reviews some of the econometrics problems faced when estimating a rational addiction model of Becker and Murphy using panel data. This is illustrated with three empirical applications. The first application looks at cigarette consumption using macro panel data on American states over time. The second application looks at liquor consumption using macro panel data on American states over time. The third application uses micro-panel data on Russian alcohol consumption.     

The Happiness of Young Australians: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Labour Market Experience

Data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth are used to investigate factors that influence young Australians' self-reported levels of 'happiness' during the school-to-work transition, focusing on the role of labour market experience. Panel logit models are fitted to control for individual effects. Fixed individual personality traits and marital status strongly influence reported happiness. There is evidence of declining well-being with duration of unemployment and of the importance of job quality, rather than just having a job. The validity of Clark and Oswald's (1994) assertion that empirical findings from happiness research show that unemployment is involuntary is questioned.