对我市雷击分析与整改措施的探讨

雷电灾害早已经被联合国有关部门列为"最严重的十种自然灾害之一",同时也被中国国防电工委员会称为"电子时代的一大公害"。近年来,我市雷电灾害频发,给人民群众带来很直接和间接的损失十分惨重。防御雷电灾害问题已引起了雷州市各级政府和社会各界的高度关注。本文针对雷州市雷击现象频繁发生,探讨雷州市雷击现象的分析以及整改措施。防范于未然,将人民生命和国家财产损失降低到最小程度。     

The risk impacts of global natural and technological disasters

This research develops an expected risk model and estimates risk impacts of single or multiple disasters in terms of human fatality, injury, affected, and economic damage for nearly 200 nations. Both natural hazards, including geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, and technological disasters, such as industrial, transport, and structural, are considered. Relevant measures of expected risk, such as standard deviation, coefficient of variance, range, and rank are also calculated to assess a country's overall risk. Social-economic-physical factors from the World Development Index developed by the United Nations (UN) are then regressed with occurrences and risks of natural and tech disasters to seek plausible associations. The results show that (1) the model performs reasonably well in fitting observed and modeled risks and risk impacts, relatively better for natural disaster and affected people and economic damage; (2) while natural disasters are far more risky than tech ones in total risk impacts; specific risks for subgroups of natural or tech disasters vary widely in magnitude and by country; (3) high natural and/or tech risks concentrate in a small number of countries, such as China, India, Bangladesh in Asia; U.S., Mexico, Canada in North America; Turkey, Russia, France, Germany in Europe, and Algeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia in Africa, which are relatively large in population, fast in development, or advanced in industrialization; yet (4) high risk deviations per unit risk impacts reveal that many small, developing, and tech backward countries need to prepare even more for both natural and tech disasters. Finally, (5) while many country-level development factors, together with disaster occurrence, are statistically significant, only some can provide weak predictability of disaster risk impacts under robust regression. The research findings provide useful risk references to countries for resilient national policies for disaster preparation, mitigation, and recovery.     

Analysis and forecast of donations at domestic hunger relief organizations impacted by natural disasters

Food banks are non-profit, charitable organizations that distribute food and products to people in need. Food bank facilities become disaster relief centers after natural disasters. The uncertainty associated with the arrival of donations and demand make the planning and operations of food banks challenging during the disaster relief period. The goal of this research is to analyse and forecast the amount of donations received by food bank facilities in the U.S. when operating as disaster relief centers. This paper analyses the donations received by two food bank facilities affected by Hurricane Harvey in 2017. An extensive numerical study is performed that compares the donation behavior at each facility before and after the hurricane event. Multiple forecasting models are evaluated to determine their accuracy in predicting the observed behavior. The results show that under disaster operations, the best performing techniques for both food banks were smoothing techniques (i.e., CMA and Holt) and econometric models.     

突发灾害中应急物流的组织构建

我国幅员辽阔,地质、地貌结构复杂,灾害种类繁多。台风、暴雨、滑坡、泥石流、沙尘暴和生物灾害等突发灾害事件影响着经济、环境和社会可持续发展。把灾害损失降到最低是人类的共同目标。文章研究突发灾害中应急物流的组织构建及符合国情的应急物流组织系统,探讨如何以快捷、优化的途径和方式将各类救援物资送达灾区,使其在灾后黄金救援时段发挥最好的救援救助功能,避免国家财产和人民生命遭受更大损失。     

考虑次生灾害的多资源多受灾点资源配置模型

重大的自然灾害往往会伴随一些次生灾害的发生,文中运用情景-分析理论考虑了灾害发生后可能出现的灾害演化,即次生灾害的出现,运用P-中位问题理论建立了一个考虑次生灾害的两阶段最优化的多资源多受灾点资源配置模型,目标函数为资源配置点到受灾点的距离和相应的配置量乘积最小。     

自然灾害风险评估综述

近年来,自然灾害风险评估研究学科发展迅速,学术界对其理论中的一些问题存在着不同的看法。本文对自然灾害风险的定义、自然灾害系统、灾害风险的形成机理、危险性、脆弱性认识等方面内容进行归纳、阐述;通过列举分析自然灾害风险评估领域常用的一些数学方法,指出自然灾害评估定量化的趋势已经愈加明显;多灾种综合风险评估由于其更贴近现实的特点,决定了它风险评估学科未来发展的趋势。     

The shocks of natural disasters on NPLs: Global evidence

The relationship between natural disasters and NPLs is of significant importance in the natural disaster economics field. Thus, this research investigates the effects of natural disasters on non-performing loans (NPLs) using panel data covering 101 countries from 1996 to 2017. We introduce interaction terms between natural disasters and different financial risks to represent the moderating effects of natural disasters through such risks. Several conclusions arise from the empirical results. (1) Natural disasters produce significant effects on NPLs both in current year and five-period lag terms. (2) Natural disasters increase NPLs through five kinds of financial risks, and the moderating effects are statistically significant. (3) The effects of natural disasters on NPLs present significant heterogeneity between OECD and non-OECD countries. From these results, we put forward several policy implications.     

NON-WELFARIST OPTIMAL TAXATION AND BEHAVIOURAL PUBLIC ECONOMICS

Abstract.  Research in behavioural economics has uncovered the widespread phenomenon of people making decisions against their own good intentions. In these situations, the government might want to intervene, indeed individuals might want the government to intervene, to induce behaviour that is closer to what individuals wish they were doing. The analysis of such corrective interventions, through taxes and subsidies, might be called 'behavioural public economics'. However, such analysis, where the government has an objective function that is different from that of individuals, is not new in public economics. In these cases the government is said to be 'non-welfarist' in its objectives, and there is a long tradition of non-welfarist welfare economics, especially the analysis of optimal taxation and subsidy policy where the outcomes of individual behaviour are evaluated using a preference function different from the one that generated the outcomes. First of all the object of this paper is to present a unified view of the non-welfarist optimal taxation literature and, second, to present behavioural public economics as a natural special case of this general framework.     

自然灾害风险监测与预警技术支撑体系研究

近几年来我国自然灾害频发,加之次生灾害的影响,严重威胁老百姓的生命财产安全和社会稳定,自然灾害风险监测与预警成为防灾减灾的核心组成部分。文章重点探讨了风险监测预警的关键要素、技术支撑体系构成以及基础平台的建设。     

我国城市自然灾害与应急管理体系研究

对我国城市面对的突发自然灾害形势和特点进行了分析,认为我国城市自然灾害风险高,具有灾害形势复杂、救灾工作难度大的特点,目前我国城市灾害应急体系建设具备法制、体制、预案、人才基础,但也存在法制不健全、机制不完善、灾害意识淡薄的问题,提出了完善体制机制、健全机构、提高承灾能力、增强居民应对能力的相关对策和建议。     

完善我国自然灾害应急体系

自然灾害作为突发公共事件的一种,对社会生命财产造成巨大损失,所以建立自然灾害应急体系显得尤为重要。本文通过借鉴发达国家自然灾害应急管理体系的经验,对完善中国自然灾害应急管理体系提出了几点建议,以便发挥更为积极的职责与作用,建立专门的自然灾害应急管理机构,使国家在突发事件中损失较小。     

Hospital capacity planning for disaster emergency management

Hospitals are an integral part of a society's critical functions designed to respond to man-made and natural disasters. Effective hospital capacity planning can significantly enhance the capability and effectiveness of treatment for emergency patients with injuries resulting from a disaster. Such information can be used for patient/ambulance routing, resource planning, and emergency operations management. In the current paper, we develop a generic simulation model that is capable of representing the operations of a wide range of hospitals given an earthquake disaster situation. Using results from our simulations, generalized regression equations are fitted to obtain steady-state hospital capacities. A parametric metamodel is then developed to predict transient capacity for multiple hospitals in the disaster area in a timely manner, as demanded by emergency operations management for guiding the routing and treatment of injured people.     

论自然灾害应急物流管理体系的构建

中国是世界上受自然灾害影响非常严重的国家之一,应急物流是救灾应急管理中必不可少的内容和环节.自然灾害应急物流管理体系,是为了实现在突发自然灾害环境下对应急物资、人员、信息和财产等进行有效组织和保障而建立的综合管理体系.文章根据我国目前突发自然灾害应急物流的实际情况,以自然灾害应急物流管理体系为研究对象,对自然灾害背景下应急物流管理体系的构建进行了研究,同时还提出了促进应急物流管理体系建设的一些建议.     

水库岸坡地质灾害的防治对策研究

在地质灾害防治的研究中,已有研究多从灾害本身的治理上入手,少有从工程管理的层面对灾害防治对策进行研究。本文基于工程管理理论,从防治体系、灾害认识、管理模式、防治方案等四个方面进行研究。在实际的灾害防治工程中,具有很强的实用性和针对性。     

On the optimal design of disaster insurance in a federation

Recent experience with disasters and terrorist attacks in the US indicates that state and local governments rely on the federal sector for support after disasters occur. But these same governments invest in infrastructure designed to reduce vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards. We show that when the federal government is committed to full insurance against disasters, regions will have incentives to under-invest in ex-ante protective measures. We derive the structure of the optimal second-best insurance system when regional governments choose investment levels non-cooperatively and the central government cannot verify regional investment choices. For low probability disasters this will result in lower ex-post intergovernmental transfers (and hence less ex-post redistribution) and greater ex-ante investment. However, the second-best transfer scheme suffers from a time-inconsistency problem. Ex-post, the central government will be driven towards full insurance rather than the second-best grants, which results in a type of soft budget constraint problem. Sub-national governments will anticipate this and reduce their investment in protective infrastructure even further. The result is that the central government may be better off suffering the underinvestment that results with first-best transfers because investment is even lower under second-best transfers when the central government is unable to commit.     

海南岛典型灾害对东线环岛城市带的影响

在可预见的未来,海南岛东线环岛区域将成为中国最具活力与发展潜力的城市带,但因其地理条件特殊,整条东岸线气象与地质灾害多发。随着城镇化进程的加快,近些年来城市灾害更是与自然灾害相结合,极大地影响了该地区城市的安全。基于此,首先分析了海南岛东线环岛城市带常见的各种灾害,然后从区域规划、城市规划、生态规划等多个角度提出了防灾策略与防灾规划手段,并提出了在城市建设中的具体措施。     

地质环境利用与地质灾害防治研究

当前,人们正面临着地质灾害频发的现状,出现这一问题的主因是伴随社会经济的快速发展,资源开采量逐步增加,而随着开发工作的推进,人们往往会忽视地质环境受损情况。地质灾害会给人们的正常生活以及社会经济的发展带来极大危害,甚至导致人员伤亡。所以该现象需要得到高度关注,人们要提高对地质环境利用以及地质灾害防治工作的重视程度,并将二者整合起来,构建更加完善的灾害防治体系。     

大力发展农业保险,助力国民经济增长

我国农业灾害严重,每年造成的巨大的经济损失给农民和国家带来巨大的压力。对我国的农业受灾情况进行描述,同时指出我国农业灾害保险发展缓慢,农业保险作用低下的原因。基于以上两个方面,确定由国家参与的农业保险经营模式。     

浅谈中国特色巨灾保险制度的建立

中国作为世界上自然灾害较严重的国家之一,自然灾害不仅种类多,而且分布广,造成的损失也非常大。然而,我国的保险业在巨灾保险方面却基本上还处于空白状态。面临越来越严峻的巨灾形势,作为灾害防范和救助体系的重要组成部分,巨灾保险制度的建立已成当务之急。     

Dynamic inoperability input-output modeling for economic losses estimation in industries during flooding

Among all natural disasters, flood stands as a recurrently happening disaster. It holds the aptitude to disrupt the organizations and to cause absenteeism of the workforce in industries. As the workforce is directly involve in the functioning of industries, work force absenteeism can cause reduced production and inoperability which outcomes in financial losses of industrial sectors. This research objects to estimate inoperability of industries due to distraction of workers by incorporating Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM). Economic losses are determined from inoperability. Industrial area which is selected for the research includes local industries in Peshawar, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Various industries are chosen and are ordered according to inoperability and economic losses. Industries having highest financial damages are: (i) Agriculture; (ii) Sugar mills; and (iii) Marble industry. These three industries hold liable for 40.6% of the overall financial losses of fifteen industries. Industries suffering from highest inoperability include (i) Sugar mills; (ii) Agriculture and (iii) Marble industry. A risk analysis frame work has also been developed to help industrial sectors to recover after a disaster. Besides, data of three different floods has also been taken for the above mentioned critical sectors to plot probability distributions for predicting economic losses of most frequent floods. Furthermore, this research methodology has been applied to flooding but it can be applied to any other disaster, everywhere.