Trade Liberalization and National Food Security: Rice Trade between Bangladesh and India

Following a poor harvest in late 1997 and a massive flood in 1998, private sector traders in Bangladesh imported several million metric tons of rice from India. This paper presents evidence that this trade, made possible by separate trade liberalizations in India and Bangladesh in the early 1990s, augmented domestic supplies and stabilized prices in Bangladesh at import parity levels. Letters of credit data indicating the participation of hundreds of importers, and a close correlation of price movements across the two countries suggest that the trade was competitive. A risk of co-incident crop shortfalls in the two countries remains, though these have occurred rarely in the past two decades. Bangladesh imports from alternative sources would also enhance food availability if another production shortfall occurs, but these imports face higher transport costs and would involve far fewer importing firms given the economies of scale of shipments by sea.The positive contribution of trade liberalization to short-run food security in Bangladesh in recent years does not minimize the importance of increased agricultural productivity and rural economic growth to provide rural poor households with sufficient incomes to acquire food. Nonetheless, the Bangladesh experience shows that trade liberalization offers potential benefits for national food security by enabling a rapid increase of food supplies following domestic production shortfalls.     

金砖国家汇率制度演进研究——兼论危机前后金砖五国汇率表现

在发达经济体遭遇债务和高失业困扰、经济增长乏力的背景下,新兴经济体经济依然呈现快速增长、经济规模不断扩大的发展态势。以金砖五国为代表的新兴经济体在全球舞台上的地位得到提升。但是,相比第一、第二产业的强势发展,这些后起之秀在金融等软实力产业方面的表现相对较弱。随着全球化进程的推进,汇率作为一国对外交换的主要制度,成为影响国内经济稳定发展的关键问题。本文分析了金砖国家汇率制度演进的过程,总结其中的经验与教训,并对危机前后这五个国家主要汇率的变动进行了比较,以期为中国汇率制度的安排提供参考与借鉴。     

Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past three decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. We also make long-run growth projections for developing Asia by combining the growth accounting framework with growth regression approach. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next two decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. Even under the baseline scenario, the region's share in the world economy will increase from the current 34 percent in 2009 to close to a half in 2030.     

后金融危机时代中国粮食安全的路径选择

后危机时代,随着我国经济增长速度开始回调,国际市场对国内粮食供求和市场价格走势影响越来越大。在这种大背景下,本文从我国粮食安全现状出发,分析了当前引发世界粮食安全危机的原因,就如何正确认识并有效确保国家粮食安全,进行了深入探讨。     

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea

We estimate “finance-adjusted” trend growth and natural rates of Japan and South Korea by extending a semi-structural model of (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Consistent with international evidence of the advanced economies, both trend growth and natural rates of interest of Japan and South Korea have been declining over the past, suggesting the important role of global factors. However, the declining patterns of Japan and South Korea are far steeper during the past 25 years. When considering domestic and global financial factors, trend growth and natural rate of South Korea are more affected by foreign financial factor while the role of domestic financial factor is more pronounced for Japanese economy.     

Saving,productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies.     

Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?

The paper argues that the economies of East and South East Asia are a very diverse group, only some of which have grown rapidly over the past three decades. The fast-growing economies of South East Asia, especially Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are in a number of important respects different from the fast-growing economies of North East Asia, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The different colonial legacies have had important consequences for educational progress and the distribution of income and wealth. Government intervention has tended to be less growth-promoting and more oriented to goals such as inter-ethnic redistribution of wealth. The implications of these differences for future economic growth in South East Asia are discussed.     

The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030

Rapid economic growth in Asia (and some other emerging economies) has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. This paper examines how trade patterns are likely to change in the course of continuing economic growth and structural changes in Asia and the rest of the world over the next two decades. It does so by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios, including slower economic growth rates in the ‘North’, slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and prospective trade policy reforms in Developing Asia, without and with policy reforms also in the ‘North’ and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international trade patterns, sectoral shares of GDP, ‘openness’ to trade, and potential welfare gains from reforms are highlighted, in addition to effects on bilateral trade patterns as summarized by intra- and extra-regional trade intensity and propensity indexes. The paper concludes with implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.     

Food Price Policy in East Asia

The primary objective of this survey is to examine the extent to which the available empirical literature suggests that economies of East Asia are following the policy trend of earlier industrialising economies in gradually changing from taxing to assisting food producers in the course of their economic development. More specifically, the survey attempts (a) to summarise the trends in agricultural incentives in East Asia; (b) to examine briefly the literature on motivations for those policy trends; and (c) to mention some of the future trade and policy implications.     

Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints

I. Introduction China has impressed the world with a nearly constant two digit rate of economic growthover the past quarter of a century. For the first 20 years in the twenty-first century, the national target is to quadruple the size of the economy. However, the growth target is under increasing security concerns from the perspective of energy supply and climate change. As both energy supply and global warming are of global and strategic significance with clear implications for national econ…     

Seamless sustainable transport connectivity in Asia and the Pacific: prospects and challenges

In view of the ongoing financial and economic crisis originated during 2008?C09 and the possibility of a double dip recession in advanced economies, export-dependent economies of Asia and the Pacific need to rebalance its growth toward domestic and regional demand for sustainable growth of Asia and the world. Despite remarkable growth during the last decade, the region still faces extensive basic infrastructure needs such as transport, energy, telecommunications and water. Asia, therefore, needs to enhance its connectivity through developing transport infrastructure at the national and regional level to rebalance its growth through enhancing intraregional trade, to enhance economic integration and to meet basic infrastructure needs. Transport plays a significant role in enhancing connectivity within and across Asian economies. However, building massive transport infrastructure will have profound implications on environment and climate change at the national, regional and global levels. In this evolving scenario, Asia needs to build efficient, safe, affordable, timely, world-class, socially and environmentally sustainable and seamless transport connections within the region, and with the rest of the world, in order to be competitive and prosperous. This paper analyzes the major challenges in developing sustainable transport connectivity, by fostering regional cooperation toward a seamless Asia. The paper examines the needs and benefits of transport connectivity and financing requirement for 2010?C2020. It examines the impact of transport connectivity on environment and the prospects and challenges for developing seamless sustainable transport connectivity. Finally, the paper provides policy recommendations on what the region can do to meet these challenges.     

RESPONSES OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: PAST EXPERIENCES

Current discussions of climate change are overly focused on the science underpinning environmental impact, with little attention to socioeconomic consequences. The economics of environmental change in particular is insufficiently informed by the lessons that past experiences can yield. Drawing on case studies from Europe and Asia, this special issue underlines the importance of historical context, as well as markets, institutions, technology, and the role of international trade in understanding how economic systems have responded to environmental changes. Past economies have responded dynamically to environmental change rather than simply constrained deterministically by the climatic and ecological events that have engulfed them.     

The growth path of the dynamic Asian economies

The rapid and sustained growth of several Asian economies led researchers, policymakers, and decision‐makers in the world of international business to search for a plausible Asian model of growth. Numerous explanations of the dynamic growth in Asia have been put forward, including the ‘new structuralist’ approach proposed by Lin (2012). This paper examines the various explanations of what these countries did to unleash their growth potential. Industrial policy and market intervention are two such explanations. While the dynamic Asian economies did not flout the Washington Consensus, they adapted it in different ways. The policies that they followed under the Beijing Consensus allowed them to proactively follow pro‐business policies. They also exploited the concepts of economic statism or state capitalism, which became an integral part of what became known as the ‘Asia model’.     

2011-2012年东盟经济的分析与预测

2011年东盟国家经济保持复苏的态势。随着欧元区主权债务危机的蔓延,世界经济增长趋于放缓,东盟国家的经济增长也呈现出减缓的趋势。为应对国内经济的下滑,一些国家开始逐步调整宏观经济政策的方向。同时东盟区域经济一体化取得新的进展。在新的国内外经济形势下,2012年东盟国家经济发展将面临新的挑战,这将考验各国政府的宏观调控能力。     

对当前新疆宏观经济形势的分析与思考

2007年,新疆国民经济保持平稳较快发展态势,增长格局、增长动力和需求结构发生了显著变化,经济发展处于新一轮经济周期上升期的新阶段。本文对经济运行中物价上涨、流动性过剩、投资增速、粮食安全、节能降耗以及经济"冷""热"程度等形势进行了分析和准确判断,并在结合2008年国际、国内经济发展前景和新疆实际的基础上,提出了对新疆国民经济发展趋势的展望和促进经济又好又快发展的对策建议。     

全球化背景下中国经济安全量度体系构建

本文将国家经济安全划分为粮食安全、就业安全、金融安全、市场安全、能源资源与环境安全、文化安全、信息安全以及人力资本与技术安全八个方面,同时搜集国际研究机构的第一手权威研究资料及数据,提炼出中国经济安全的国际测度指标,将其作为中国经济安全量度体系的第九个有机组成部分。而后,从这九个方面入手,建立起一个能够全面反映经济安全影响因素的,完全能够量化的,并且具有预警性质的中国经济安全量度体系。该体系各个部分既互相融合结为一体,又相对独立自成体系。既能反映中国经济安全的整体状况,又可以对经济安全面临的局部问题进行评估与判断,为解决中国经济安全所面临的问题提供可量化的决策依据。     

Corporate Restructuring and Leveraged Buyouts in the Asia Pacific 1980–2010

Leveraged buyout markets in the Asia Pacific have grown substantially since the 1980s and now play an important role in the market for corporate control. This paper undertakes an international comparative analysis of the emergence and growth of leveraged buyout firms in the Asia Pacific and their role in corporate restructuring, with a focus on Australia, Japan and South Korea. Three distinct periods in the development of these markets are identified. The paper highlights the importance of state involvement and changes in domestic economic policy around financial crises, where governments created new rules to facilitate buyouts as an organisational restructuring solution to distressed companies.     

Can East Asia rise again?

In recent times, the economies of East Asia have been confronted by two major economic recessions, the first caused by the East Asian financial crisis, and the second by the slump in the ‘new economy.’ The causes of these two recessions, their scope and their influences differ significantly and during these periods of economic downturn the economies affected have adopted various monetary policies aimed at reducing interest rates and tax rates, and pursuing the expansion of government expenditure. However, these policies have obviously not yet been as effective as expected.This paper sets out to determine those factors affecting the possibility of East Asia rising again from the recent economic slump, a slump which has stemmed from excessive investment in the electronics and information industries. The paper begins with an overview of the East Asian economy, with particular reference to the recent serious decline following the steady recovery from the East Asian financial crisis and a review of the measures taken to counter it. Proposals are then made with regard to a number of lessons to be learned from the recent slump.There are three major issues involved in the question of whether East Asia can rise again from the current economic slump. First of all, many of the economies of East Asia have tried their utmost to upgrade their industrial structures from labor- to technology-intensive, or towards a knowledge-based economy and, to some extent, have actually been quite successful in achieving their goals. Secondly, almost all of the East Asian economies have paid particular attention to educational development, with many families having sent their children to foreign countries to receive advanced education in the hope that when they return they can make a substantial contribution to the progress of their home economies—examples of this trend are provided by Taiwan and India. Thirdly, there are abundant natural resources in East Asia along with rich sources of manpower with a hard-working spirit; these two factors can create comparative advantages and strengthen the competitiveness of these economies.In view of the recent developments towards regionalism, it is imperative for the economies of East Asia to form an East Asian Community in the near future, and many of the economies in this region are currently endeavoring to realize this vision, despite many obstacles still facing East Asia which will ultimately need to be overcome.     

Lessons from the euro zone for the East Asian economies

This paper endeavors to contribute to the solution of the following critical issues: (1) what the East Asian nations can do in cooperation among themselves and with China, Japan, and South Korea in their foreign trade arrangements to improve the stability and growth of their economies; (2) what they must do individually to get their financial and real economies better integrated; (3) what they can do in cooperation with China, Japan and South Korea—bilaterally and regionally—to modernize their monetary systems and to render them more resilient to financial crises; and (4) what new focus of the IMF is most likely to enable the East Asian nations to maintain relatively free and open economies without the impact of catastrophic financial crises. Lessons from the development of the European Union, the dynamics of the euro zone, the experience of the Bank for International Settlements, and recent research on monetary and international macroeconomic theory are drawn upon to provide answers to these questions. It is argued that an area-wide approach, with a new IMF regional role and the formation of an East Asian Monetary Authority, would contribute to a sense of “community” within East Asia, leading to an enhanced role for both East Asia and ASEAN + 3 in the new world economic order.     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in services: Evidence at sub-sectoral level for the Asia-Pacific

We take a sectoral level approach to analyzing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. We disaggregate FDI first by manufacturing versus services, then within services by financial services, trade services, and business services. We consider the effects of FDI inflows on growth of GDP per capita, then distinguish between growth in manufacturing and services value added per capita. Our data sample comprises 14 Asia Pacific economies for the period 1985–2012 to which we apply a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation technique. Services FDI as a whole is found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP growth while manufacturing FDI is found to have no effect. The impetus for growth from services FDI traces to financial services in particular, acting not only directly on service sector output but through manufacturing sector output as well. By contrast, trade services FDI is found to have a significantly negative effect on manufacturing output with no significant effect on services output. Foreign participation in trade services may act to expose domestic manufacturers to international competition and may also lead to domestic consolidation to take advantage of economies of scale.