大城市征收交通拥堵费的政策分析

交通拥堵费是解决城市交通拥挤问题的有效手段。自从20世纪70年代新加坡实施后,目前世界上已有10余个大城市成功实施。本文通过对大城市交通拥挤收费政策进行经济分析,并结合我国实情,介绍了我国征收交通拥堵费需要重点考虑的问题,为中国实施道路拥挤收费提供理论支持和现实的参考。     

基于交通拥挤收费理论下的目标纬度多指标评价方法浅析

改革开放以来,随着经济的快速发展,我国一些城市出现了严重的交通拥挤问题。缓解城市交通拥挤,一个经济上比较有效的办法就是对拥挤路段的使用者收费。目前,国内外对交通拥挤收费有效性评价方法均采用单指标评价方法,只用一个指标对其有效性进行评价,难免会出现片面的缺点。提出了一种基于目标纬度的多指标评价方法,这对我国实施交通拥挤收费具有一点的借鉴意义。     

浅析道路桥梁无损检测技术的应用

路桥设施在日常运营中会不可避免的受到周边自然环境和交通荷载的影响，使道桥设施发生不可预见的破坏，所以必须对病害损伤等进行检测，尽早发现潜在隐患，确保路桥设施处于良好的使用状态，本文阐述了道桥无损检测技术的概念和意义，分析了无损检测在检测中的应用方法及存在的不足，并提出了改善建议。     

浅析我国城市轨道交通现状及发展趋势

随着城市人口的增加,城市交通越发拥挤,城市轨道交通作为一种载客量大、效率高的运输方式,为解决城市交通拥挤问题提供了一种很好的解决方案,因此,其已经成为了很多城市发展的一个目标,本文综合分析了我国城市轨道交通现状及发展趋势。     

基于社会网络分析的金融犯罪团伙检测

随着金融业的迅猛发展,金融监管和金融犯罪团伙检测的研究逐渐成为一个新的热点话题，社会网络分析因其对社会关系进行量化研究而在社会生活各领域中的应用取得巨大成功，本文基于公司员工间的信息传播对象和主题而建立赋权有向网络图,采用PageRank算法计算出员工的嫌疑度,得到犯罪团伙的核心人物和监控优先级队列,最后通过遗传算法实现社区划分,从而完成对公司所有员工的界定,为金融监管部门和检方提供有力的帮助，应用案例的结果表明本文所建立的模型和求解方法是可行和有效的。     

意动形随通天下

仅仅依靠一闪念就能遥控某个或某些物体的状态，一直以来都是人类的梦想。在《哈里波特》和《世界大战》等魔幻作品中，我们不止一次地看到主人公凭借着思想和意念移动或者控制物体，今天这个梦想已经部分的变为了现实。新的大脑意念遥控技术，可以初步实现人类通过意念对物体进行移动和控制。而这种颇具神秘色彩的意念技术正在逐步地从实验室走向商用。[第一段]     

交通延误带来的生态环境价值损失评估

交通延误会带来额外的燃料消耗,增加二氧化碳排放、大气污染、噪声污染等生态环境损害,但对于交通延误带来的生态环境价值损失,国内外很少有专门的评估研究报道,大多仅限于对时间成本和燃料消耗成本的估算。本文借鉴以往的研究成果,构建了比较全面的交通延误造成的生态环境价值损失模型,估算了每年北京交通延误导致的生态环境价值损失,以期为合理估算不同交通方式的成本提供参考依据。     

机动车检测中测量结果不确定度的影响与评价

测量结果不确定度的大小，直接影响着测量结果的可靠性、准确性，对于测量结果中的不确定度进行合理、有效的评定，是检测过程中需要充分重视的一个重要问题。本文主要针对机动车检测中测量结果不确定度产生的影响进行深入分析探究合理评定测量结果不确定度的方式，以此获取扩展不确定度、合成不确定度的结果。     

动态平板载荷Evd试验检测方法应用

本文通过实例阐述了动态平板栽荷Evd试验检测方法在铁路路基工程施工中的使用情况，详实的分析Evd试验检测方法原理，并与其他检测方法对比其优缺点介绍了发展应用前景。     

科技项目人力规模量化管理的方案与实例

科技项目人力规模量化管理是以参数估算模型为主体,配合调节因子实现导向性纠偏,并对于特大、重大项目辅助类比估算以及Delphi迭代、三点估算等方法复合运用的量化管理方法体系。对于该量化管理方法体系,参数估算模型作为整个体系的主体尤为重要,本文在该模型基础上,结合数据中心实际情况给出量化管理建议,并通过实际案例检验该方法的实用价值。     

The Moving Average Ratio and Momentum

I show the ratio of the short‐term moving average to the long‐term moving average (moving average ratio, MAR) has significant predictive power for future returns. The MAR combined with nearness to the 52‐week high explains most of the intermediate‐term momentum profits. This suggests that an anchoring bias, in which investors use moving averages or the 52‐week high as reference points for estimating fundamental values, is the primary source of momentum effects. Momentum caused by the anchoring bias do not disappear in the long‐run even when there are return reversals, confirming that intermediate‐term momentum and long‐term reversals are separate phenomena.     

Evaluating implied RNDs by some new confidence interval estimation techniques

This paper evaluates the precision of the parametric double lognormal and the non-parametric smoothing spline method for estimating risk-neutral distributions (RNDs) from observed option prices. By using a bootstrap technique, confidence bands are estimated for the risk-neutral distributions and the width of the confidence bands is used as a criterion when evaluating the precision of the two methods. Previous literature on estimating confidence bands has to a large extent been estimated using Monte Carlo methods. This paper argues that the bootstrap technique is to be preferred due to the non-normality feature of the error structure. Furthermore, it is shown that the inclusion of a heteroscedastic error structure improves the precision of the estimated RNDs. Our findings favour the smoothing spline method as it produces tighter confidence bands. In addition, an example of how to apply the estimated confidence bands in practice is also provided.     

中国潜在GDP估计的比较研究——基于1952-2008年度和季度数据

本文区分了潜在GDP的两类定义,即以充分就业理论为基础的非加速通货膨胀失业率(NAIRU)的GDP和以真实经济周期和经济增长理论为基础的趋势GDP,对潜在GDP的各种估计方法进行了比较分析,并尝试使用移动平均法、增长率推算法、HP滤波方法、BP滤波方法、BN分解方法、UC-Kalman滤波方法、C-D生产函数法和SVAR方法等8种方法对年度潜在GDP进行估计,使用HP滤波方法和BP滤波方法对季度潜在GDP进行估计.在此基础上得出各种估计方法在方向性上保持一致等相关结论.     

Simulating and Forecasting Utility Stock Returns: Arbitrage Pricing Theory vs. Capital Asset Pricing Model

Just when the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) has become accepted by public utility regulators as a method for estimating a utility's screening rate, academic criticism of the model's theoretical and empirical shortcomings has led to empirical testing of the alternative arbitrage pricing theory (APT). This paper expands on recent APT-CAPM performance comparisons by simulating returns of public utility stocks using versions of both models, as was done by Bower, Bower, and Logue in a 1984 paper. In addition, the models are used for ex-post forecasting of returns in a subsequent time period. The Litzenberger-Ramaswamy method is used to correct for errors-in-variables in the CAPM cross-sectional equation. This allows for estimating the security market line using firm betas. The same methodology is used in the APT stages. Three different criteria—the Theil inequality, the sources of mean square error, and Chen's estimated weights of expected return-are used to compare CAPM and APT simulation and forecasting of the equity screening rates. Tested on a sample of 128 public utility companies, results show that neither model is clearly dominant. There is a tendency for reversal of performance. The model that is superior for simulating returns tends to be inferior for forecasting them, and vice-versa.     

Transport Policy and Transport Tax Reform

We are now entering a new phase of transport policy fiscal instruments. Rather than reforming existing measures, the UK and several other countries are moving towards replacing the whole transport taxation regime. This article reviews the ways that car taxation is used internationally to promote fuel economy, cleaner fuels and reduce traffic growth. Fiscal measures to manage traffic growth in the UK have faced political difficulties and, since 2000, have given way to a somewhat random set of policy decisions, together with a shift in focus towards the dominant issue of congestion reduction. An eventual replacement of existing car taxation measures with a new national road user charging regime is now contemplated, but there is a danger that the confusion in purpose that now characterizes transport taxation policy could be carried over to the new regime.     

Jackknife Empirical Likelihood Intervals for Spearman’s Rho

Abstract

In connection with copulas, rank correlation such as Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho has been employed in risk management for summarizing dependence between two variables and estimating parameters in bivariate copulas and elliptical models. In this paper a jackknife empirical likelihood method is proposed to construct confidence intervals for Spearman’s rho without estimating the asymptotic variance. A simulation study confirms the advantages of the proposed method.     

A Portfolio Approach to Estimating the Average Correlation Coefficient for the Constant Correlation Model

This paper presents a portfolio approach to estimating the average correlation coefficient of a group of stocks which are considered for portfolio analysis. The average correlation coefficient has been shown to produce a better estimate of the future correlation matrix than individual pairwise correlations. The advantage of the approach described here is that it does not require the estimation of pairwise correlations for estimating their average.     

Estimation of Implicit Bankruptcy Costs

This paper presents a new methodology, quasilinear estimation, for efficiently estimating economic variables reflected in the prices of corporate securities. For example, ex ante bankruptcy costs are not directly observable, however, if these costs are sufficiently large, then current security prices are affected and bankruptcy costs can be indirectly measured. When bankruptcy costs and other relevant parameters are known, there are many numerical solution techniques that can be used to determine security prices. One technique, the method of lines, is compatible with quasilinear estimation, which has been employed extensively in the physical sciences for the estimation of coefficients in differential equation models. We demonstrate that quasilinear estimation is a potentially reliable and efficient technique for the estimation of corporate bankruptcy costs and the asset variance from security prices.     

Risk aversion and the yield of corporate debt

This paper develops a model to estimate the implied default probability of corporate bonds. The model explicitly considers the risk averse behavior of investors to provide a more precise framework for estimating the implied default probability. A Kalman filter method is used to estimate time-varying risk premium associated with the investor's risk aversion. The results of nonlinear regressions indicate that previous risk-neutrality models consistently overestimate the implied default rates of corporate bonds. The results also suggest that investors may have been adequately compensated for investment in risky bonds.     

Modeling the Impact of Genetics on Insurance

The role of probabilistic models in the debate over genetics and insurance is discussed. A Markov model is used to show that, under quite extreme assumptions, adverse selection in life insurance ought to be controllable. The statistical problems of estimating small differences in mortality are discussed; these might limit the use of many genetic disorders as rating factors. The influence of the insurance industry on policy-making, especially through its support of research, is discussed. It is suggested that participating contracts are suitable and simple vehicles to carry the genetic risks in life insurance.