J-curve in Turkish bilateral trade: A nonlinear approach

ABSTRACT

This study aims to bring further evidence on recent developments of the J-curve literature by employing linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches for Turkish bilateral trade data with respect to 18 European Union member countries over the period from 1990Q1 to 2017Q3. Findings obtained from the nonlinear ARDL model yield more support for the J-curve phenomenon compared to the linear model. This result provides evidence of an asymmetrical impact of appreciations and depreciations on the Turkish bilateral trade balances and suggests that allowing for nonlinearity in the adjustment process gives better results in terms of the J-curve effect.     

Nonlinear effects of exchange rate changes on the South African bilateral trade balance

In testing for the J-curve, previous studies have shown that the trade balance model is better fitted using cointegration and error correction mechanisms. These mechanisms are able to incorporate the short-term deterioration and the long-term improvement of the trade balance – the definition of the J-curve. However, the drawback of the established cointegration and error correction frameworks is that they assume symmetry in the equilibrium adjustment process. Incidentally, studies which have used the linear frameworks have found little support for the J-curve. Since the adjustment process could be nonlinear, a fresh investigation of the J-curve using nonlinear approaches could provide competing evidence. This paper retested the J-curve by using quarterly data for South Africa and her key trade partners (China, Germany, India, Japan, the UK and the USA) and found the linear specification to support the J-curve phenomenon in only two cases (India and the USA) under relaxed conditions. In contrast, the nonlinear specification supported the J-curve phenomenon in all cases at no cost of serial correlation and functional misspecification. We also found the real exchange rate changes to have significant nonlinear effects on the South African trade balance.     

The Real Exchange Rate,the Ghanaian Trade Balance,and the J-curve

Using linear and nonlinear specifications, we studied the effects of real exchange rate changes on the trade balance of Ghana during the period 1986Q1 to 2016Q3. We found no evidence in support of the short- and long-run impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance in the linear specification. The J-curve is refuted in this case. In contrast, exchange rate changes affected the trade balance in the nonlinear specification. Depreciations improve the trade balance in the long run, but appreciations have no impact. Hence, exchange rate changes have nonlinear effects on the trade balance. This is consistent with the J-curve phenomenon.     

Modeling the employment–oil price nexus: A non-linear cointegration analysis for the U.S. market

ABSTRACT

Theoretically, fluctuations in oil prices are expected to affect production costs and may force businesses to delay their investment decisions, triggering pressures on employment. Following these theoretical notions, this paper investigates the asymmetric impact of oil prices on employment (measured as total employment, male employment, and female employment), in a nonlinear cointegration structure for the U.S. market. In doing so, this paper adopts the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to shed light on such asymmetric association, as the NARDL model recently emerged as a new direction in examining nonlinear cointegration and asymmetry. The empirical findings document a long-run asymmetric effect in case of total employment and male employment only. Furthermore, the short-run asymmetric effect was detected for all three employment categories. As a final point, the Granger Causality test documents a unidirectional causality running from oil price decrease to both total employment and male employment.     

Asymmetric response of the US–India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries

The relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate continues to attract attention by international economists and has entered into new territory, mostly due to advances in econometric methods. The introduction of asymmetric error‐correction modelling and asymmetric cointegration using the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, Springer, 2014, 281) as compared to the symmetric and linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 289) has led us in a new direction to discover relatively better results. We apply these methods to the bilateral trade balance model of each of the 68 industries that trade between India and the USA. The nonlinear approach not only provides more support to the J‐curve effect, but also yields support in favour of short‐run and long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in most of the industries.     

A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade

Cushman suggested that impact of exchange rate volatility declines after the inclusion of the third-country effect. Like Cushman, when we use a linear analysis, we confirm his results. However, when we engage in asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility which requires including nonlinear adjustment of volatility measures, the findings show more support to both exchange rate volatility influence and the third-country effect. Therefore, we propose that in examining exchange rate volatility effect on trade, consideration must be given to not just asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility but also asymmetric effects of the third-country effect. We demonstrate these findings using monthly data from 54 Malaysian industries that export to the US and 63 Malaysian industries that import from the US.     

Do inpayments and outpayments respond to exchange rate changes asymmetrically: Evidence from Malaysia

Since the pass-through of exchange rate changes on import and export prices are asymmetric, we expect a country’s inpayments (export earnings) and outpayments (cost of imports) to also react to exchange rate changes asymmetrically. We demonstrate this hypothesis by considering trade between Malaysia and each of her 11 largest trading partners. We find that while the short-run effects of exchange rate changes on Malaysia’s inpayments and outpayments are asymmetric with all partners, the long-run asymmetric effects are present in less than half of the partners. The results are partner specific.     

BOOK REVIEW

ABSTRACT

Partner selection is one of the key aspects of alliance strategy. Selection of appropriate partners can have a significant impact on the success of an alliance. In this study, we examine whether firms seek symmetric alliance partners. Symmetry is examined in respect of several criteria such as goals, management style, size, experience, power and dependence. Based on the responses of 179 Singapore managers, we find that, in most respects, firms indeed seek symmetric partners. Our results are quite robust across sub-samples consisting of firms with different performance levels in previous alliances and having varying levels of prior alliance experience.     

Industrial groupings and foreign direct investment

We explore worldwide foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions by Japanese manufacturing firms from 1985 through 1991. Our conditional logit estimates provide evidence that firms' location decisions are affected by membership in either vertical or horizontal keiretsu. Consistent with previous studies that stress agglomeration effects on firms' location decisions, we find that the stock of investment in a region by a firm's vertical keiretsu partners increases the probability of location. Further, we find that the recent flow of investment into a region by a firm's horizontal keiretsu partners increases the probability of investment to the region, providing evidence of networking effects.     

Reconsidering Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Models: An Empirical Study in Three Retail Service Settings

The use of symmetric linear functional forms to describe the relationships among customer evaluative judgments is omnipresent in services research. However, according to several researchers, the use of symmetric linear functions to model the relationships among customer evaluative judgments leads to serious model misspecification. Although several asymmetric nonlinear functional forms have been proposed, only modest empirical evidence is available on the superiority of these more complex model specifications. Based on a formal empirical comparison in multiple service settings, we find that asymmetric nonlinear functions do not possess superior explanatory power compared to symmetric linear functional forms.     

Modelling spillovers between stock market and FX market: evidence for Nigeria

Abstract

The need to capture the foreign exchange (FX) and stock markets nexus in Nigeria is underscored by the rapidly expanding financial markets integration due to trade and financial liberalization policies which seem to have enhanced the inflow of capital as well as accelerated investment/business interactions. Using variants of the VARMA-AMGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti, and Chan (2009), we find that volatility persistence in the stock market is accentuated by bad news in the market and moderated by good news in the FX market. Finally, we establish that ignoring the asymmetric effects may exaggerate the spillover results.     

Trade structure and economic growth

Abstract

How do the number of trade partners and the concentration of trade among partners affect the economic growth of a country? We refer to these characteristics as the structure of trade, and explore this question empirically in this study. We find that the structure of trade, independently of the level of trade itself, has an important effect on the rate of economic growth. The results of the study suggest that the number of trading partners is positively correlated with growth across all countries, and this effect is more pronounced for rich countries. Trade concentration is positively correlated with growth for all countries, and the effect is concentrated in poor countries. Previous work has overlooked these characteristics of trade, although we find them to be quite relevant and that they could lead to new ways of understanding the trade – growth relationship.     

Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach

The typical conclusion reached when researchers examine exchange rate exposure is that only a few firms are exposed. This finding is puzzling since institutional knowledge and theory suggests a larger effect. In this paper, we compare results obtained using a linear approach with those from nonlinear and nonparametric models. Among firms that don't have a linear exposure, we find that a considerable proportion of these are exposed when nonlinear or nonparametric models are used. This exposure is most striking when a nonparametric model is used. We also find that firms' hedging activities decrease linear exposure but don't affect nonparametric exposure.     

Bilateral Opportunism in Buyer–supplier Partnerships

ABSTRACT

Purpose

Literature analyzes interorganizational relationships mostly from a relational perspective by emphasizing partnerships’ positive aspects. Yet business reality is often less romantic and more opportunistic. Especially within the automotive industry opportunistic behaviors often cause extreme reactions in both partners, resulting in poisoned relationships. This study examines the effects of bilateral opportunism between buyers and suppliers on both partners’ relationship induced financial performance, using an automotive industrial setting of new product development (NPD) partnerships. Furthermore, we evaluate the “opportunistic fit” between both partners to assess whether partnerships are characterized by opportunistic parity or unilateral domination.     

Investigating the Moderating Effects of Perceived Technological Change on Sales Force Acceptance

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Prior literature has shown that the acceptance of new technologies can improve the long-term performance of sales forces and firms. However, new technologies are likely to introduce obstacles to acceptance, especially for those technologies that represent a massive change for the user. Sales force members who drastically change their work processes in order to integrate a technology sacrifice both time and effort and may be distracted from their primary goals (e.g. hitting deadlines or sales goals). Thus, we investigate how perceived technological change can negatively moderate individual motives to accept a new technology. Furthermore, we analyze how managerial support can help overcome the acceptance issues caused by perceived technological change.

Methodology/approach: Data for this study was collected from 163 sales force members via an online survey. Respondent data was collected using a private market research firm that provides access to online panels. We utilize structural equation modeling for factor analysis and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for testing the hypotheses.

Findings: We find that perceived technological change negatively moderates the influence of individual goal orientation on to acceptance of new technology. We also find that managerial support, as opposed to team goal commitment, will positively moderate an individual’s goal orientation onto acceptance of new technology. This suggests that managerial support is necessary in order to encourage acceptance of technologies that present drastic change for the end user. Post-hoc analysis takes a deeper look into potential curvilinear effects, a three-way interaction, and differences among categories of technologies. This analysis reveals that the negative influence of perceived technological change specifically affects the acceptance of behavioral-based technologies, as opposed to outcome-based technologies, thus necessitating the moderating influence of managerial support.

Contribution: This study demonstrates the acceptance issues presented by technologies associated with drastic perceived technological change. This article identifies and suggests how to more appropriately enhance acceptance of technologies that introduce drastic changes by sales force employees, thus enhancing potential long-term organizational performance.     

Japan’s trade agreements aren’t “window dressing” after all

ABSTRACT

We analyze eight of the 15 existing Japanese economic partnership agreements (EPAs) from 1997 to 2012. First, we construct bilateral measures of trade barriers for Japan and its partners using input-output and trade data. Next, we conduct panel regressions using those measures and find that when Japan forms an EPA, the tariff-equivalent barrier between the two countries falls approximately 2% to 3%. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this suggests that Japan’s EPAs may not be merely “window dressing” after all. This has implications for larger trade agreements in the works, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).     

Gravity,Borders, and Regionalism: A Canada–US Sub-National Analysis

ABSTRACT

This article examines the extent to which trade costs influence the magnitude and direction of both east-west and north-south trade in Canada and the United States. With the aid of an alternative framework which pays attention to key estimation issues in the gravity literature, we garner further evidence in support of a decline, over time, in the home bias syndrome. Our results uphold the Linder hypothesis but refute the Heckscher-Ohlin factor endowment proposition. In light of the recently modernized trilateral trade agreement in North America, we conclude with policy lessons on buffering the Canadian economy from asymmetric trade shocks from its southern neighbor.     

Multiproduct firms and antidumping duties: Evidence from India

ABSTRACT

With the growing availability of high-quality higher-dimension data in international trade, many new stylized facts have also emerged. One such stylized fact is that multiproduct firms play a significant role in international trade. In this paper, we investigate the effect of US antidumping duties on the exports of Indian multiproduct firms. In particular, we study whether US antidumping duties lead the Indian exporter to alter their product-scope to third country markets (aka to trade partners other than the US). Using a unique transaction-level data from India, we find that firms affected by US antidumping duties increased the number of products exported to other destinations by about 0.7 products, on average. This translates to a substantial 40% increase in the product-scope of these firms because a typical Indian exporting firm exported an average of 1.8 products to a given destination in our sample. We also find that firms whose products spanned multiple sectors drove most of this increase. However, we do not find any difference in the product-scope response of firms producing differentiated vs. those producing homogenous products. We find our results to be robust across various specification and sample size changes.     

Should retailers encourage couples to shop together?

Many purchase decisions take place in social relationships, and yet few studies have specifically investigated couples’ purchase decisions made during shopping about products for later joint consumption. We hypothesize that romantic partners purchase more when they shop together than individually and that this effect is strong for vice products, particularly those without an organic label. For our empirical study, we asked romantic partners shopping together in a real-life context to make purchase decisions together or individually (our main experimental condition) in a self-programmed web store that offered 88 product variants (differing in category [vice/virtue] and labeling [with/without organic label]). Participants then filled out an online questionnaire on site. Results of a sequence of nested generalized linear models show that making purchase decisions together increases purchase amount (number of items selected) and purchase value (quantities selected multiplied by the corresponding willingness to pay), especially for vice products without organic labeling. In a second study, we benchmark these effects by comparing them with the effects of individual decision making and varying consumption mode (joint vs. individual consumption), using data from an online survey that followed the same structure as the main study. These effects, again estimated through generalized linear models, are negligible. Our findings strongly support the “accomplice” (rather than the “minder”) role of romantic partners in shopping. Therefore, retailers should target couples, encourage them to shop together, and emphasize joint consumption as a shopping goal.     

Constructing Business-to-Business Marketing Models that Overcome the Limitations in Variable-Based and Case-Based Research Paradigms

ABSTRACT

Purpose: This article describes the principal limitations frequently observable in variable-based and case-based research in business-to-business (B-to-B) marketing.

Focus: The limitations relate to B-to-B theory construction, data collection, and data analysis and interpretation. The principal limitations in variable-based research include the reliance on regression (net effects) models in theory construction and the pervasive failure to test resulting empirical regression models for predictive validity. The principal limitations of case-based research are the frequent absence of rigorous theory formulation either pre- or postdata collection and failures to test propositions for predictive validity.

Recommendations: The article directs attention to iconic studies that break free in part from these and additional limitations. The article offers useful steps on how to break free completely from the principal limitations.

Managerial implications: B-to-B executives should insist that researchers include asymmetric algorithm models in reports that include symmetric (regression analysis) and analysis of variance findings.