Temptation-Driven Preferences

My own behaviour baffles me. For I find myself not doing what I really want to do but doing what I really loathe. Saint Paul
What behaviour can be explained using the hypothesis that the agent faces temptation but is otherwise a standard rational agent? In earlier work, Gul and Pesendorfer (2001) use a set betweenness axiom to restrict the set of preferences considered by Dekel, Lipman and Rustichini (2001) to those explainable via temptation. We argue that set betweenness rules out plausible and interesting forms of temptation including some which may be important in applications. We propose a pair of alternative axioms called DFC, desire for commitment , and AIC, approximate improvements are chosen . DFC characterizes temptation as situations in which given any set of alternatives, the agent prefers committing herself to some particular item from the set rather than leaving herself the flexibility of choosing later. AIC is based on the idea that if adding an option to a menu improves the menu, it is because that option is chosen under some circumstances. From this interpretation, the axiom concludes that if an improvement is worse (as a commitment) than some commitment from the menu, then the best commitment from the improved menu is strictly preferred to facing that menu. We show that these axioms characterize a natural generalization of the Gul–Pesendorfer representation.     

Endogenous Future Preferences and Conservation

A dynamic optimization model is developed in whichuncertainty about future preferences is endogenous,namely depending on the state of the environment atthe time the change in preferences occurs.Endogeneizing preferences not only provides economicintuition to previous results but also implies thatoptimal policies are less conservative.     

Moral Hazard and Other-Regarding Preferences

The paper aims at obtaining new theoretical insights by combining the standard moral hazard models of principal–agent relationships with theories of other-regarding preferences, in particular inequity aversion theory. The principal is in general worse off, as the agent cares more about the wellbeing of the principal. When there are multiple symmetric agents who care about each other's wellbeing, the principal can optimally exploit their other-regarding nature by designing an appropriate interdependent contract such as a "fair" team contract or a relative performance contract. The approach taken in this paper can shed light on issues on endogenous preferences within organizations.     

Mean-Variance Preferences and Investor Behaviour

We study the comparative statics implications of mean-variance preferences for optimal portfolios. Specifically, we show that all risk-averse mean-variance investors raise their investment in a risky asset in response to a change in that asset's return distribution if and only if the change lowers both the mean and standard deviation of the return by the same percentage. Besides being of interest in its own right, our results allow us to compare some comparative statics implications and the expected utility and mean-variance models systematically.     

Interdependent Preferences and Groups of Agents

An individual's preferences are assumed to be malleable and may be influenced by the preferences of others. Mutual interaction among individuals whose preferences are interdependent powers a dynamic process in which preference profiles evolve over time. Two formulations of the dynamic process are presented. One is an abstract model in which the iteration of a mapping from profiles to profiles defines a discrete time dynamic process; the other is a linear discrete time process specified in more detail. Examples motivate the model and illustrate its application. Conditions are given for the existence of a stable preference profile—a rest point of the dynamic process. A stable profile is naturally associated with a division, not in general unique, of the set of agents into subgroups with the property that preference interdependencies within a subgroup are "stronger" than those across subgroups. The conventional case in which each agent's preference relation is exogenously given is, in this model, the special case where each subgroup consists of just one agent.     

Racial Preferences in Dating

We examine racial preferences in dating. We employ a Speed Dating experiment that allows us to directly observe individual decisions and thus infer whose preferences lead to racial segregation in romantic relationships. Females exhibit stronger racial preferences than males. The richness of our data further allows us to identify many determinants of same-race preferences. Subjects' backgrounds, including the racial composition of the ZIP code where a subject grew up and the prevailing racial attitudes in a subject's state or country of origin, strongly influence same-race preferences. Older subjects and more physically attractive subjects exhibit weaker same-race preferences.     

人文差异与外商直接投资的区位选择偏好

文章通过建立多国竞争博弈模型分析了人文差异对FDI区位选择偏好的影响机制,构建了基于面板数据的FDI区位选择偏好两步估计计量模型,在此基础上,利用118个国家(地区)1992-2010年的中国FDI和人文地理数据估算了各国及地区对中国FDI的偏好程度,检验了人文及地理差距对FDI区位选择偏好的影响。研究结果表明,投资国与中国的人文及地理差距对投资国的FDI选择偏好具有较强的负面影响,并且人文差异的作用要远大于地理距离。拥有共同语言是提高各国对中国FDI偏好的基础,而增强价值观认同则是提高各国对中国FDI选择偏好的重要推动力。     

Preferences in the Future

Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay.     

Growth, Environment and Uncertain Future Preferences

The attitude of future generations towards environmental assets may well be different from ours, and it is necessary to take into account thispossibility explicitly in the current debate about environmental policy. The question we are addressing here is: should uncertainty about futurepreferences lead to a more conservative attitude towards environment?Previous literature shows that it is the case when society expects that onaverage future preferences will be more in favor of environment than ours,but this result relies heavily on the assumption of a separability betweenconsumption and environmental quality in the utility function. We show thatthings are less simple when preferences are non-separable: the attitude ofthe society now depends not only on the expectation of the change inpreferences but also on the characteristics of the economy (impatience,intertemporal flexibility, natural capacities of regeneration of theenvironment, relative preference for the environment), on its history(initial level of the environmental quality) and on the date at whichpreferences are expected to change (near or far future).     

Researching Preferences,Valuation and Hypothetical Bias

A number of recent papers in environmental economics have focused on the process of researching preferences – agents are uncertain about preferences but with effort may narrow their uncertainty. This issue has arisen in formulating bids in contingent valuation (CV) as well as the debate over the divergence between WTP and WTA. In the context of CV, it has been suggested that the hypothetical nature of the preference elicitation process biases responses. This paper provides both a theoretical model and experimental evidence to contribute to this debate. The model is a model of competitive bidding for a private good with two components that are particularly relevant to the debate. The first component is that bidders are unsure of their own value for the private good but may purchase information about their own value (researching preferences). The second component is that there is a probability that the auction is hypothetical – that the winning bidder will not get the private good and will not pay the winning bid. The experiment tests this theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters (hypotheticalness, information costs and number of agents) on the endogenous variables (such as the proportion of bidders who become informed and the winning bid). Experimental results suggest that an increase in the hypotheticalness of an auction tends to decrease the likelihood that bidders pay for information on their valuation with an ambiguous effect on the winning bid.      

Optimal Nonlinear Income Taxation and Heterogeneous Preferences

An attempt is made to find a nonlinear optimal income taxation structure for the Japanese income taxation system, assuming that individuals have heterogeneous preferences between income and leisure. Attention is paid to the horizontal equity considerations and the implications for income as distinguished between skilled and unskilled labour.
JEL Classification Numbers: H20, H55, I31.     

Sustainability with Uncertain Future Preferences

A feature of the sustainability problem is that the preferences of future generations are uncertain. In this paper, we put forward a fairness-based definition of sustainability that takes this uncertainty into account. We analyze the implications of this definition in the context of a model of project evaluation. We show that our definition encompasses the concepts of non-declining welfare and of weak and strong sustainability. Furthermore, we show that preference uncertainty has a substantial influence on the implications of sustainability. We are indebted to two anonymous referees whose comments helped considerably to improve the paper. All remaining errors are ours.     

The Dynamic Evolution of Preferences

This paper develops a general methodology for characterizing the dynamic evolution of preferences in a wide class of strategic interactions. We give simple conditions characterizing the limiting distribution of preferences in general games, and apply our results to study the evolutionary emergence of overconfidence and interdependent preferences. We also show that this methodology can be adapted to cases where preferences are only imperfectly observed. Earlier drafts of this paper were circulated under the title: “The Evolution of Perception Biases” and some of these results appeared in the earlier working paper Heifetz, Shannon and Spiegel (2003). We thank three anonymous referees for their helpful comments. Shannon thanks the NSF for research support under grant SES-0351346.     

Egalitarian division under Leontief Preferences

We consider the problem of fairly dividing $l$ divisible goods among $n$ agents with the generalized Leontief preferences. We propose and characterize the class of generalized egalitarian rules which satisfy efficiency, group strategy-proofness, anonymity, resource monotonicity, population monotonicity, envy-freeness and consistency. On the Leontief domain, our rules generalize the egalitarian-equivalent rules with reference bundles. We also extend our rules to agent-specific and endowment-specific egalitarian rules. The former is a larger class of rules satisfying all the previous properties except anonymity and envy-freeness. The latter is a class of efficient, group strategy-proof, anonymous and individually rational rules when the resources are assumed to be privately owned.     

Public Policy with Endogenous Preferences

Public policy may influence norms and preferences. By altering the payoffs associated with different preferences, public policy may influence the distribution of these preferences in the population. Such interdependence between policy and preferences may limit (or enhance) the effectiveness of different policies. We demonstrate this idea with a simple model of subsidizing contributions to a public good. While the short‐run effect of such a subsidy will be an increase in the overall contribution, the subsidy triggers an endogenous preference change that results in a lower level of contribution to the public good, despite the explicit monetary incentives to raise that level.     

Preferences for social protection: Theory and empirics

Empirical cross-country evidence suggests that countries position themselves along a sort of Market Regulation (MR)-Social Expenditure (SE) trade-off “line”. Theoretically, it is clear that there exists a certain degree of substitutability between SE and MR, since both can provide a cushion against socio-economic risks. However, market regulation is an inefficient means to provide protection, since it might reduce productivity and the employment level. Still, to be politically viable efficiency-enhancing deregulation policies must come along with appropriate fiscal measures (social protection spending) to compensate the losers of reforms or to accommodate any temporary negative effect on aggregate demand. This implies that the political determinants of MR and SE should be jointly analyzed to explain both the multiplicity of stable combinations of MR and SE empirically observed, and the strong political resistance often encountered in the implementation of structural reforms. The focus of this paper is a theoretical and empirical (using microdata from the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP)) investigation on the socio-economic, institutional and cultural factors which shape voters' preferences for MR and SE and determine the relative salience of the two political issues. Such an analysis should provide fundamental pieces of information to carry out a proper analysis of the political process to give account of the multiplicity of combinations of MR and SE empirically observed.     

Transparency of Central Bank Preferences

Abstract. In this paper, we examine whether the transparency of the central bank's preferences is desirable. We make two major points. First, in the literature on preference transparency variance-reduction frameworks are often adopted. As a consequence a change in the degree of transparency affects the magnitude of information asymmetries, but at the same time it implies a rather arbitrary effect on the distribution of preferences. We present a clean framework without this problem. Second, using a very general specification of shocks to the central bank's preferences, we show that society prefers transparency if it sufficiently values the employment target, whereas it prefers opacity if it estimates inflation as sufficiently important.     

Preferences over characteristics and utility functions over commodities

Following Lancaster, preferences are defined over a set of characteristics, while commodities vectors are transformed into characteristics by a production function. We assume that both the preferences over the characteristics and the production functions are “neoclassical” and we characterize the set utility functions over the consumption space derived as the composition of preferences over characteristics and production functions. We prove that, under regularity conditions, any function can be derived by such a composition. Thus, the theories of characteristics does not impose any restrictions on derived utility functions. We thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. The research of Aldo Rustichini was supported by the NSF grant NSF/SES-0136556. Paolo Siconolfi acknowledges the support of the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University.