Offshoring and unemployment: The role of search frictions labor mobility

In a two-sector, general-equilibrium model with labor-market search frictions, we find that the wage increases and sectoral unemployment decreases upon offshoring in the presence of perfect intersectoral labor mobility. If, as a result, labor moves to the sector with the lower (or equal) vacancy costs, there is an unambiguous decrease in economywide unemployment. With imperfect intersectoral labor mobility, unemployment in the offshoring sector can rise, with an unambiguous unemployment reduction in the non-offshoring sector. Imperfect labor mobility can result in a mixed equilibrium in which only some firms offshore, with unemployment in the offshoring sector rising.     

Supply-side strategic unemployment in small business

In this paper, the model which will be analysed is characterized by a labour market with (a) profitable vacancies, (b) unemployment, (c) excess labour supply, (d) limited mobility and divisibility of labour, and (e) competition on-the-job. The analysed setting is typical for a small-business economy. The analysis suggests that unemployment will be greater than equilibrium unemployment if present employees and potential entrants consider job assignments for this market under strategic perspectives.     

Rural–urban migration,urban unemployment and the structural transformation of a dual economy

This paper restructures the Harris–Todaro model in such a way that rural–urban migration in the presence of urban unemployment brings in the structural transformation desired for a developing dual economy by expanding the industrial sector before any policy is introduced to cure the domestic factor market distortion. Furthermore, migration may also help to eliminate unemployment as well as the wage gap in the economy. When international trade is introduced in this restructured dual economy, trade policies would have new implications; for example, unlike in the original Harris– Todaro structure, the import tariff may bring full employment and eliminate wage gaps between the sectors.     

Aggregate scale economies, market integration, and optimal welfare state policy

Using a two-sector-two-country model with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, we show that optimal welfare state policy entails positive levels of unemployment benefits under free-trade and capital mobility. In this setting, economic integration does not reduce the revenue raising capacity of governments and thus does not lead to a race-to-the-bottom in social standards. Instead, trade and capital flows interact with welfare state policies in increasing welfare even when each government acts independently (non-cooperatively) in determining its optimal welfare payment. Cooperation is shown to improve upon non-cooperative outcomes by raising both the generosity of the welfare state and aggregate welfare.     

Outsourcing, unemployment and welfare policy

The paper investigates the consequences of outsourcing of labor intensive activities to low-wage economies. This trend challenges the two basic functions of the welfare state, redistribution and social insurance when private unemployment insurance markets are missing. The main results are: (i) outsourcing raises unemployment and labor income risk of unskilled workers; (ii) it increases inequality between high- and low-income groups; and (iii) the gains from outsourcing can be made Pareto improving by using a redistributive linear income tax if redistribution is initially not too large. We finally derive the welfare optimal redistribution and unemployment insurance policies.     

中韩自由贸易区的建立对中韩两国净出口与就业影响的实证分析

本文主要运用计量经济学的方法就中韩建立自由贸易区对中韩两国净出口与就业的影响进行了实证分析。实证分析主要分三步:第一步,分析了FTA的建立对两国之间净出口的影响;第二步,分析了净出口的变动分别对中韩两国GDP的影响;第三步,分析了两国GDP与失业率之间的关系,从而得出FTA的建立对两国就业的影响。结论为:若在2009年中韩建立自由贸易区,中国对韩国的贸易逆差会减少64.9196亿美元,韩国对中国的贸易顺差会减少64.9196亿美元;自由贸易区的建立会使中国的GDP增加约0.426%,韩国的GDP减少约0.938%;会使中国的失业率下降约0.069%,韩国的失业率上升约0.157%。     

上海市少子老龄化与可持续发展

在概述21世纪上半叶上海市户籍少子老龄化主要特点的基础上,从实施可持续发展战略高度,建议探讨充分发挥少子老龄化的正面效应,尽可能把负面效应转化为正面效应的政策措施;采取既有利于更多吸纳年轻人才,又不使未来老龄化水平过高的替代性人口流迁战略;制定既不使未来中国总人口过多,又有利干减缓老龄问题的现行生育政策调整方案;寻求既不会加重失业问题,又有利于减缓城镇职工基本养老保险基金压力的推迟职工退休年龄的最佳时机;切实推进以“终身保健”为基础、大病保障为重点的医疗卫生服务体系;不断完善以居家养老为主,按适度比例加快养老设施发展的生活照料体系。     

The effects of unemployment and the business cycle on absenteeism

This study, apparently the first of its kind, looks at the relation between unemployment and absenteeism. It is hypothesized that high unemployment is associated with low absenteeism for two reasons: (1) when unemployment is high, layoffs are high and workers laid off are more likely to have been absence-prone than retained workers, and (2) when unemployment is high, currently employed workers, fearing job loss, will avoid absences to decrease their chances of becoming unemployed. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics support both hypotheses.     

异质性交通网络密度、劳动力流动与全要素生产率

当前研究主要关注单一类型交通基础设施对全要素生产率的影响,却普遍忽视不同类型和等级交通网络密度对全要素生产率的差异性作用以及劳动力流动在影响全要素生产率过程中扮演的角色。基于2000-2018年中国30个省市区面板数据,检验不同性质交通网络密度对全要素生产率的作用以及劳动力流动的影响,结果发现,不同类型和等级交通网络密度的提高对全要素生产率均表现出显著正向作用,其中高速铁路和高速公路的作用尤为突出,且同一性质交通网络体系的作用强度随等级降低呈下降趋势;异质性交通网络之间存在互补性,随着交通网络密度的增加,互补性逐渐减弱;异质性交通网络密度通过劳动力流动特别是研发人员流动提升全要素生产率,在不同类型和等级交通网络中的作用差异明显,作用强度随交通网络等级的降低呈下降趋势。鉴于此,地方政府未来应大力发展高速铁路和高速公路建设,在已经开通高速铁路和高速公路的城市进一步提高其网络密度。与此同时,重点关注研发人员流动在提升全要素生产率过程中所发挥的作用,通过制定相应的人才激励和优惠政策,提高福利待遇和科研经费,吸引研发人员流入,并推进户籍制度改革,取消或放松人才落户限制,全面解决人才户籍问题。     

Outward foreign direct investment,wage rigidity and unemployment: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Taiwan has started to liberalize its exchange rate and foreign investment policies since the mid 1980s. The subsequent considerable appreciation of its currency and increasing labor cost has stimulated many Taiwanese firms to actively undertake outward foreign direct investment (FDI). The possibility of the industrial hollowing-out induced by the FDI has been a great concern in Taiwan. The purpose of this paper is to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the impact of outward FDI by Taiwanese firms on its domestic economy. The efficiency wage theory is incorporated into the analytical framework. This paper first employs regression analysis to show that there exists severe wage rigidity in the labor market of Taiwan. Its simulation analysis then indicates that the outward FDI from Taiwan might reduce its income and employment to some extent. These results reveal that the outward FDI might hurt a distortion-ridden economy, which is consistent with the theoretical findings of Brecher and Choudhri (1987 Brecher, R. A. and Choudhri, E. U. 1987. International migration versus foreign investment in the presence of unemployment. Journal of International Economics, 23: 329–342.  [Google Scholar]) and Basu (1998 Basu, B. 1998. Efficiency wages, unemployment and international factor movements. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 7: 317–338. [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). However, it seems that the outward FDI could account for only a very small part of the recent increase in Taiwan's unemployment level.     

TRANSITIONS OUT OF UNEMPLOYMENT: THE ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS' TOPOLOGY AND FIRMS' RECRUITMENT STRATEGIES

In this paper we study the effects of job contact networks on out‐of‐unemployment transitions. We find that social connections produce sizable increases in upward mobility from unemployment and, caeteris paribus, symmetric network topologies perform better than asymmetric ones. Furthermore, in scale‐free networks the probability of transitions out of unemployment increases in the exponent of the power‐law degree distribution, but its value is much lower than the one attainable in Poisson random networks. In addition, and most interestingly, these results strongly depends on the different hypotheses on the firms' recruitment strategy.     

How Do Migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean Fare in the US Labour Market?

This paper discusses the causes of mass migration from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to the United States in recent decades and how these migrants have fared in US labour markets. The evidence shows that LAC migrants have higher unemployment rates and substantially lower wages than other immigrants and natives. Furthermore, the relative wages of LAC migrants have been declining sharply over the last 25 years. The most significant factor explaining the latter is the lower (and declining) educational attainment of LAC migrants relative to other immigrants and natives, compounded by the rising rates of return to education in the US.     

美国对华贸易逆差对美国制造业失业率影响的实证分析

本文通过对大量经济数据的统计分析以及建立相关的经济计量模型,运用协整方法就美中贸易逆差是否是美国制造业失业率上升的主要原因进行实证分析.定量研究结果不但表明美中贸易逆差并非近年来美国制造业失业率上升的主要原因,而且还指出了造成美国制造业失业率上升的主要原因在于美国近几年来快速提高的生产率,以及美国对日本制造品出口额的大幅下降.最后本文给出了简要结论和相关建议.     

Sustaining imperfectly credible trade liberalization: Do the rate of tariff reduction and the degree of labour mobility matter?

Abstract

Imperfectly credible trade liberalization can lead to balance of payment deterioration and a subsequent reversal of the reform. Therefore, this paper examines whether the likelihood of policy reversal depends on the rate of tariff reduction or the degree of labour mobility. The analysis shows that transitory unemployment increases the likelihood of policy reversal. Furthermore, a gradual reduction in the tariff rate is found to extend the life of the liberalization episode, but does not necessarily increase the likelihood of sustained liberalization.     

东北老工业基地总量性失业分析

在东北老工业基地改造的过程中,失业是需要迫切解决的问题.东北老工业基地的失业以总量性失业为主.从总量性失业的供求分析,人口生产的无计划性是决定劳动力供给规模的首要因素,农业剩余劳动力的转移导致了劳动力供给的持续性增加,产业结构不合理阻碍了劳动力需求的扩张,所有制结构调整迟缓限制了劳动力需求的增长.东北老工业基地失业的治理,应控制劳动力供给的增长,扩大劳动力需求,大力发展第三产业,增强科技进步对就业的扩张效应.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short‐run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.     

The geographic determinants of bankruptcy: evidence from Switzerland

This paper examines the geographic determinants of firm bankruptcy. We employ hazard rate models to study the bankruptcy risk of a firm, allowing for time-varying covariates. Based on a large sample from all geographic areas and the major sectors of the Swiss economy, we find the following main results: (1) Bankruptcy rates tend to be lower in the central municipalities of agglomerations; (2) bankruptcy rates are lower in regions with favorable business conditions (where corporate taxes and unemployment are low and public investment is high); (3) private taxes and public spending at the local level have little impact on bankruptcy rates.     

Reducing working hours in the context of growing real capital mobility

Can the reduction of working hours be a suitable policy instrument to reduce unemployment? The following article presents a model of the effects of such a reduction—without offsetting adjustments to wage rates—on unemployment in the context of growing real capital mobility between countries and discusses the consequences for economic policy.     

东北地区人口流动、居留及落户意愿的影响因素分析

基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,在推拉理论框架下,从个体特征、经济特征和社会融入特征三个维度分析了东北地区人口流动、居留及落户三阶段决策的影响因素。结果表明:东北户籍流动人口以域内流动为主,居留意愿显著高于落户意愿,其中域外流动人口的居留和落户意愿显著高于域内流动人口;户口性质、宅基地权益与人均GDP是影响人口流动决策的主要因素;年轻、已婚、农业户口及高学历人群更倾向于长期居留并落户;承包地可以提高域内居留意愿,但对落户意愿产生抑制;子女随迁是区域外落户的首要考虑因素,参加医疗保险则是区域内落户的主要原因;社会融入特征变量是提升东北流动人口居留意愿的主要因素,经济特征变量与流动人口的落户意愿关系更加密切。     

Mapping market mobility: Psychographic profiles and media exposure

Are there households in trading areas that have unique mobility predispositions? Can mobility types be monitored? And does mobility type relate to the life style and consumption patterns of households? This study examines the mobility and life style characteristics of suburbanites in a medium-sized city in an effort to discover the answers to these and other questions.In particular, the article suggests that mobility relates to life style and media usage, which in turn largely determines the quality of consumer demand and the most efficient media to reach such a market. If the composition of mobility types within a shopping area is changing, retailers should monitor these changes so that they can better predict retail demand—both quality and quantity.A self-administered questionnaire was designed to measure (1) the mobility characteristics of consumers—including their local moves, long-distance moves, and their predisposition to move; (2) the life styles and socioeconomic characteristics of consumers; and (3) the median exposures of households. The instrument was administered by personal interviews with 322 suburban housewives within a medium-sized trading area. The usage sample included 304 cases.The data support the hypotheses of the study; mobility types emerged from the analysis and these had distinctive life styles and media habits. Periodic sampling of households is suggested as an approach to monitoring mobility composition within the trading area.