亚洲金融危机应对措施回顾与借鉴

本文简要回顾了1998年亚洲金融危机时我国采取的应对措施及其效果,并分析了当前我国经济中存在的突出问题和当前经济形势与亚洲金融危机时的不同,在此基础上提出了应对危机的对策建议。     

Time-varying beta and the Asian financial crisis: Evidence from the Asian industrial sectors

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, and the period immediately afterwards, on the time-varying beta of four industrial sectors (chemical, finance, retail and industry) of Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We apply daily data from 1992 to 2002 and the bivariate MA-GARCH model (BEKK) to create the time-varying industrial betas. Results provide evidence of the influence of the Asian financial crisis, and the period after, on the time-varying industrial betas of these countries. These results may have implications for investors who are interested in portfolio risk management.     

Capital requirement and financial crisis: The case of Japan and the 1997 Asian crisis

This study investigates the direct link between the implementation of the 1988 Basel capital requirement in Japan and the shrinkage of banks’ foreign assets, particularly in Thailand in the 1990s. The empirical analysis proceeds in two stages. The first stage investigates the hypothesis that the capital crunch in Japan induced Japanese banks to alter their portfolios and reduce their foreign assets. The second step tests the hypothesis that the change in behaviour of the Japanese banks induced the increase of the probability of financial crisis in Asia. Our results support the responsibility of the Japanese capital requirement, among other factors, in triggering the 1997 Asian financial crisis as an external common shock and give a new angle on the financial crisis literature.     

Contagion in the stock markets: The Asian financial crisis revisited

This paper presents empirical evidence of herding contagion in the stock markets during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, above and beyond macroeconomic fundamental driven co-movements. We analyze the cross-country time-varying correlation coefficients among the stock prices for the countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines, between crisis and tranquil periods. Macromodels are constructed and implemented to capture the pure contagion effects on the markets. After controlling for the economic fundamentals for the five countries, the paper finds strong evidence of herding contagion.     

From the Asian crisis to the global credit crisis: reforming the international financial architecture redux

2008 was marked by the tenth anniversary of the Asian crisis and the debate over how to reform the international financial architecture but also by the outbreak of the most serious global credit crisis in generations. This paper reviews the debate over how to strengthen the international monetary and financial system in this light. An earlier version of this paper was presented to a meeting of the Tokyo Club, Tokyo, Japan, 11–12 November 2008. Comments of the participants there and of the editors of this journal are acknowledged with thanks. I am grateful as well to the Tokyo Club for permission to publish this revised version. Financial support from the Coleman Fund Risk Management Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley is acknowledged with thanks.

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金融危机影响下日本对亚洲经济合作新战略

近几年在金融危机的影响下,日本一改往日脱亚入欧转向回归亚洲的经济合作新战略。对日本亚洲经济合作新战略的形成、基本思想、内容和基本目标进行剖析,具有重要的现实意义。在剖析日本对亚经济合作新战略基础上,对日本当前的具体经济战略进行分析,并分析其对当前中日关系的影响,研究发现日本的亚洲经济新战略并没有实质性改变其政治大国的目的。     

Will Bank Bailouts Bust Budgets? Fiscalisation of the East Asian financial crisis

East Asia has returned to a position of relative financial stability and modest economic growth seven years since the onset of the East Asian financial crisis, but the long-range impact of the crisis is still unclear, especially regarding fiscal ramifications. Thailand and Indonesia were two of the hardest hit economies and each had exemplary fiscal policies before the crisis. Since the crisis, both countries have maintained prudent fiscal policies, keeping budget deficits relatively small, managing debt burdens effectively and limiting exposure to contingent liabilities. Both countries have addressed the short-term triggers of the financial crisis admirably and continue to monitor vigilantly their external vulnerabilities. Thus, if either country experiences a fiscal crisis, it will be the result of other factors—bank bail-outs will bust budgets only if banks have to be bailed out once again due to incomplete or insufficient financial sector reform.     

金融体系结构与经济增长:对东亚国家的启示

金融体系结构对经济增长的作用是一个具有理论和现实意义的问题，直接影响到国家的政策选择。本文从此问题入手，比较了市场导向型金融体系与银行导向型金融体系在促进经济增长方面的作用机制的不同，对广大东亚国家来说，应该根据自身情况大力发展银行体系。     

Measuring model of financial crisis for public company

The paper puts forward the method of fuzzy overall evaluation of financial crisis for public company according to the problems on measuring financial crisis, which is difficult to evaluate with an objective and precise way. A systematic measurement index system has been described. With a multi-layer structure built up using the AHP method, and weights obtained using the FAHP method for the factors, a multi-level and multi-target fuzzy mathematic model has been established for measuring financial crisis. Financial crisis forecasting can control risks and decrease losses.     

透过金融危机看我国的金融监管

从根源上看,以美国次贷危机为导火索的全球金融危机与金融监管不力密切相关。本文从金融危机的成因及传递机制入手,对金融监管在整个金融体系中的重要作用进行分析,并针对目前的金融危机,对改革金融监管提出了自己的一些意见     

关于金融业合业经营趋势的探讨

金融业作为现代经济发展的重要支持，其业务经营方式也随着社会经济的发展经历了一系列的变化过程。在目前世界经济趋于一体化，金融趋于全球化的浪潮之下，金融业合业经营的趋势也日益明朗。本文拟从美国金融业的发展历程出发，对全球金融业合业经营的趋势略作分析。     

广州港在危机中实现平稳快速增长

广州港是国内继上海、深圳港之后的第三个集装箱吞吐量突破1000万TEU的大港,广州港集装箱运输从支线港全面提升到干线枢纽港。2008年集装箱吞吐量将超过1100万TEU。     

企业财务危机问题分析

一、企业财务危机的成因分析1.企业财务危机发生的外部原因①国家宏观管理制度不健全。伴随着我国市场经济体制的建立,使企业成为自主经营、自负盈亏的市场经济主体。这虽然为企业的自由发展创造了条件,但也在一定程度上放松了对企业的监督和约束。同时,我国经济和会计法律制度     

近期越南金融危机的评估

按照国际通行标准,越南已经发生金融危机。越南金融危机事出有因,是其经济虚高增长的矫枉过正,它对周边国家经济影响有限,但给我们提供了经验教训。只要发展基础没有改变,越南今后的经济前景仍可看好。     

Origins of the financial crisis and requirements for reform

This paper examines the causes of the global financial crisis (focusing in particular on why residential mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps exploded from around 2004) and the policy reform agenda. Arbitrage opportunities in capital rules and the tax system were available, and changes in regulations affecting the leverage of international banks (IBs) played a key role in allowing these opportunities to be exploited on a greater scale. Changes to the Basel rules also actively contributed to the sharp rise in toxic securities. The policy agenda focuses on the need to deal with toxic assets, and for broader reforms to incentive structures, not only of capital rules, but also of corporate governance and banking structures. Specific policy reform recommendations are made. Recent numbers on the capital needs of banks suggest that we are not very far into the process of dealing with the crisis, and lack of transparency in this respect is a major issue in Europe. The longer-run reform process too is not focusing on the ideal building blocks.     

揭露美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机真相

美国次贷危机爆发两年来,国内外经济学界以及政界都对此进行了深入研究,观点主要集中在市场主体和监管主体的"有限理性"、内外部经济结构失衡和货币政策环境的影响、全球金融货币体系制度设计的缺陷、以及资本主义制度基本矛盾等几个方面,试图勾画组合出一幅危机的完整图象。但因缺少一条逻辑主线将这些正确的归因与少数为了转移矛头故意歪曲事实真相的借口有机串连,致使图象主题不够立体、清晰。为了更好地认清危机的实质,本文运用中华文明辨证逻辑思维这条主线,深度透视危机的本源,还原危机背后的真相,揭露真正的幕后元凶及其支配主体行为的片面思维逻辑,以便呈现出一幅更为清晰、立体的美国次贷危机全景图。     

国际金融危机下我国积极财政政策的效应评析

由美国次贷引发的国际金融危机对我国经济产生了巨大的冲击。在出口、投资和消费均出现下滑的态势下,我国政府果断出台了扩大内需的积极财政政策,以实现稳定经济增长的目标。本文在分析国际金融危机背景下我国经济基本走势的基础上,对我国政府实施的积极财政政策进行了政策回顾及效应评析,充分肯定了积极财政政策在应对国际金融危机中发挥的积极作用。