A Comparison of Dividend,Cash Flow,and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation*

Standard formulas for valuing the equity of going concerns require forecasting payoffs to infinity but practical analysis requires that payoffs be forecasted over finite horizons. This truncation inevitably involves often-troublesome terminal value calculations. This paper contrasts dividend discount techniques, discounted cash flow analysis, and techniques based on accrual earnings when each is applied with finite-horizon forecasts. Valuations based on average ex post payoffs over various horizons, with and without terminal value calculations, are compared with ex ante market prices to discover the error introduced by each technique in truncating the horizon. Valuation errors are lower using accrual earnings techniques rather than cash flow and dividend discounting techniques. The accounting features that make a given technique less than ideal for finite horizon analysis are also detailed. Conditions where a given technique requires particularly long forecasting horizons are identified and the performance of the alternative techniques under those conditions is examined.     

Are Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Naïve Extensions of Their Own Earnings Forecasts?

We examine the sophistication of analysts' cash flow forecasts to better understand what accrual adjustments, if any, analysts make when forecasting cash flows. As a preliminary step, we first demonstrate that prior empirical tests used to evaluate the sophistication of analysts' cash flow forecasts are not diagnostic. We then present three sets of evidence to triangulate our conclusion that analysts' cash flow forecasts incorporate meaningful accrual adjustments. First, we review a stratified random sample of 90 analyst reports and find that the majority of these analysts include explicit adjustments for working capital and other accruals in their cash flow forecasts. Second, using a large sample of analysts' cash flow forecasts from 1993–2008, we find that these forecasts outperform time‐series cash flow forecasts in correctly predicting the sign and magnitude of accruals. Finally, we find a significant market reaction to analysts' cash flow forecast revisions, suggesting that investors find these revisions informative. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that analysts' cash flow forecasts are not simply naïve extensions of their own earnings forecasts, but that they reflect meaningful and useful accrual adjustments. These findings are relevant to researchers who examine analysts' cash flow forecasts in a variety of settings, and to investors and practitioners who employ these forecasts for valuation purposes.     

Equity Valuation Employing the Ideal versus Ad Hoc Terminal Value Expressions*

Recently, Penman and Sougiannis (1998) and Francis, Olsson, and Oswald (2000) compared the bias and accuracy of the discounted cash flow model (DCF) and Edwards‐Bell‐Ohlson residual income model (RIM) in explaining the relation between value estimates and observed stock prices. Both studies report that, with non‐price‐based terminal values, RIM outperforms DCF. Our first research objective is to explore the question whether, over a five‐year valuation horizon, DCF and RIM are empirically equivalent when Penman's (1997) theoretically “ideal” terminal value expressions are employed in each model. Using Value Line terminal stock price forecasts at the horizon to proxy for such values, we find empirical support for the prediction of equivalence between these valuation models. Thus, the apparent superiority of RIM does not hold in a level playing field comparison. Our second research objective is to demonstrate that, within each class of the DCF and RIM valuation models, the model that employs Value Line forecasted price in the terminal value expression generates the lowest prediction errors, compared with models that employ non‐price‐based terminal values under arbitrary growth assumptions. The results indicate that, for both DCF and RIM, price‐based valuation models outperform the corresponding non‐price‐based models by a wide margin. These results imply that researchers should exercise care in interpreting findings from models using ad hoc terminal value expressions.     

Earnings Quality and the Equity Risk Premium: A Benchmark Model*

This paper solves a model that links earnings quality to the equity risk premium in an infinite‐horizon consumption capital asset pricing model (CAPM) economy. In the model, risk‐averse traders hold diversified portfolios consisting of risk‐free bonds and shares of many risky firms. When constructing their portfolios, traders rely on noisy reported earnings and dividend payments for information about the risky firms. The main new element of the model is an explicit representation of earnings quality that includes hidden accrual errors that reverse in subsequent periods. The model demonstrates that earnings quality magnifies fundamental risk. Absent fundamental risk, poor earnings quality cannot affect the equity risk premium. Moreover, only the systematic (undiversified) component of earnings‐quality risk contributes to the equity risk premium. In contrast, all components of earnings‐quality risk affect earnings capitalization factors. The model ties together consumption CAPM and accounting‐based valuation research into one price formula linking earnings quality to the equity risk premium and earnings capitalization factors.     

Valuation Implications of Unconditional Accounting Conservatism: Evidence from Analysts' Target Prices

We examine whether financial analysts understand the valuation implications of unconditional accounting conservatism when forecasting target prices. While accounting conservatism affects reported earnings, conservatism per se does not have an effect on the present value of future cash flows. We examine whether analysts adjust for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to estimate target prices. We find that signed target price errors (actual minus forecast) have a significant positive association with the degree of conservatism in forward earnings, suggesting that target prices are biased due to accounting conservatism. Cross‐sectional analysis suggests that more sophisticated analysts and superior long‐term forecasters adjust for conservatism to a greater extent than other analysts. In additional analyses, we explore the mechanism through which conservatism leads to bias in target prices. We first show that analysts' earnings forecasts are negatively associated with the degree of conservatism; that is, analysts include the effect of unconditional conservatism in their earnings forecasts. Based on alternative earnings‐based valuation models that analysts may use, our evidence suggests that analysts fail to appropriately adjust their valuation multiple for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to derive target prices. As a consequence, we find that, for extreme changes in conservatism, the bias in analysts' target prices due to conservatism leads to a distortion of market prices. The evidence highlights the concern that analysts may not appreciate the valuation implications of conservative accounting which could inhibit price discovery.     

Properties of Economic Income in a Private Information Setting*

Abstract. This paper adopts a valuation perspective within an asymmetric information setting and explores properties of economic income. The optimal intertemporal contract induces an accrual component of income which would not exist absent the information problem. The contracting solution introduces a dampening effect—if cash flow increases by one dollar, income increases by less than one dollar. Thus, the accrual is inversely related to cash flows. Further, this dampening is greater for more favorable cash outcomes. Résumé. Les auteurs adoptent la perspective de l'évaluation en situation d'asymétrie de l'information et explorent les propriétés du bénéfice économique. Le contrat intertemporel optimal fait intervenir une amplification du bénéfice qui n'existerait pas si ce n'était de la présence du problème d'information. La solution contractuelle amène un effet atténuateur — c'est-à-dire qu'à une augmentation du flux monétaire de un dollar correspond une augmentation du bénéfice de moins de un dollar. Ainsi, l'amplification est en relation inverse avec les flux monétaires. En outre, l'atténuation est plus marquée dans le cas de résultats monétaires plus avantageux.     

The Difference between Earnings and Operating Cash Flow as an Indicator of Financial Reporting Fraud*

This paper examines the relation between earnings and operating cash flow to derive and test an indicator of financial statement fraud. Accrual measurement concepts indicate that financial statement fraud should be associated with high levels of earnings relative to operating cash flow. We demonstrate that the excess of earnings over operating cash flow is extreme in most fraud cases in years immediately prior to the fraud discovery based on a sample of 56 fraud cases from 1978 to 1991. We compare the distribution of the earnings minus operating cash flow variable for fraud firms with that for a sample of 60,453 firm-years for firms listed on COMPUSTAT. We test a logistic regression model in which the discovery/nondiscovery of fraud is the dependent variable, and earnings minus operating cash flow is the explanatory variable. Other control variables are included in the model based on prior studies. Results are consistent with expectations derived from accrual measurement theory. We then examine the predictive ability of the model using our sample of fraud firms and a sample of nonfraud firms in the same four-digit SIC code industries. Observations for the fraud firms are for the fiscal year prior to the discovery of fraud. Observations for the nonfraud firms are for the same fiscal years as the fraud firms in the same industries. The predictive ability of the model, including the excess of earnings over operating cash flow, is substantially higher than the predictive ability of the model omitting this variable. We conclude that the earnings-operating cash flow relation provides important information for those interested in identifying financial statement fraud, especially when considered in conjunction with other factors associated with fraud risk.     

Conservative Accounting and Linear Information Valuation Models*

Prior research using the residual income valuation model and linear information models has generally found that estimates of firm value are negatively biased. We argue that this could result from the way in which accounting conservatism effects are reflected in such models. We build on the conservative accounting model of Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and the Dechow, Hutton, and Sloan 1999 (DHS) methodology to propose a valuation model that includes a conservatism‐correction term, based on the properties of past realizations of residual income and “other information”. “Other information” is measured using analyst‐forecast‐based predictions of residual income. We use data comparable to the DHS sample to compare the bias and inaccuracy of value estimates from our model and from models similar to those used by DHS and Myers 1999. Valuation biases are substantially less negative for our model, but valuation inaccuracy is not markedly reduced.     

THE PREDICTABILITY OF STOCK MARKET RETURNS IN SOUTH AFRICA: PARAMETRIC VS. NON‐PARAMETRIC METHODS

This paper compares the forecasting performance of a sub‐class of univariate parametric and non‐parametric models in predicting stock market returns in South Africa. To account for conditional heteroskedasticity in stock returns data, the non‐parametric model is generated by the conditional heteroskedastic non‐linear autoregressive (NAR) model, while the parametric model is produced by the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic in mean (GARCH‐M) model. The results of the paper show that the NAR as a non‐parametric model performs better than the GARCH‐M model in short‐term forecasting horizon, and this indicates the importance of a distribution‐free model in predicting stock returns in South Africa.     

Words and Numbers: Financialization and Accounting Standard Setting in the United Kingdom

How is it possible that British policymakers resisted market‐based measurement for decades while financial economic concepts of decision making and valuation still gained widespread acceptance as a justification for accounting standard setting? This study introduces the concept of “technologies of financialization” to develop the theorizing of the rise of finance in the domain of accounting. Based on a genealogical history of narrative reporting in the United Kingdom, it demonstrates how references to qualitative reporting techniques helped to address recurring crises of measurement from 1969 to 1993, and ultimately contributed to the practical acceptance of market‐based measurement in the UK standard‐setting context. The data are interpreted through a cultural economy framework that directs attention to the power of referring to financial reporting as a combination of words and numbers in sustaining its theoretical redefinition “from below”—that is, by relating it to the experience of practicing accountants rather than accounting theory. As a technology of financialization, narrative reporting made financial economic ideals of market‐based measurement, decision usefulness, and future orientation appear operable in a real‐life reporting context. Whenever measurement reached its practical limits, narratives were relied on to explain the impact of price‐level changes, frame economic decisions, and relate unobservable future cash flows to present‐day strategies and resources. The insight into how narrative reporting practices have been laced into the reasoning of capital markets for over 40 years is timely because it illustrates that narratives can also play a more encompassing role and drive the turn toward wider corporate accountability on social and environmental impacts while hard measurements in this area are still being figured out.     

The effect of sales and collection disclosures on cash flow forecasting and income smoothing*

Abstract. Based on a model of sales and collection events of a firm, this paper analyzes the effect of different levels of disclosures about the two events on cash flow forecasting and income smoothing. A comparison of disclosure of credit sales from the sales accrual method and disclosure of cash collection from the cash collection (installment) method shows that when cash flows occur in a period subsequent to sales realization, the cash flow forecasts from earnings based on the sales accrual method are superior to forecasts from earnings based on cash collection. This is because the sales accrual method provides information on management's expectations about future cash flows. The analysis also shows that, for a similar reason, earnings based on the sales accrual method can be expected to be generally smoother than earnings based on the cash collection method. The model is also examined through a simulation study of a firm for a variety of parameter values. Résumé. Fondé sur un modèle des événements de vente et de recouvrement d'une société, cet article analyse l'effet de divers niveaux de divulgation de ces deux événements sur la prévision de trésorerie et le lissage des bénéfices. Une comparaison de la divulgation des ventes à crédit selon la méthode de comptabilité d'exercice et de la divulgation des recouvrements selon la méthode de la constatation des profits au prorata des encaissements, montre que lorsque les flux monétaires se produisent dans un exercice postérieur à la constatation des ventes, les prévisions de trésorerie fondées sur les résultats produits par la méthode de comptabilité d'exercice, sont supérieures aux prévisions fondées sur les résultats issus de la méthode de constatation du profit au prorata des encaissements. Ceci est attribuable au fait que la méthode de comptabilité d'exercice fournit de l'information sur les prévisions de la direction au sujet des flux monétaires futurs. L'analyse montre également, pour des raisons similaires, que les résultats produits par la méthode de comptabilité d'exercice seront probablement plus nivelés que les résultats générés par la méthode de constatation du profit au prorata des encaissements. Le modèle est en outre examiné par l'entremise d'une étude de simulation d'une société pour différentes valeurs attribuées aux paramètres.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Cash Flow and Dividend Changes in Nigeria

The purpose of this study is to re‐evaluate the incremental information content of cash flows in explaining dividend changes, given earnings. I carry out an 882 firm‐year study by analysing the dividend changes‐cash flow relationship on a sample of 63 quoted firms in Nigeria over a wider testing period from 1984 to 1997. Despite the fact that I used a wider testing period than previous studies and more refined cash flow measures than previous studies, I also introduced dummy variables to capture economic policy changes in the economy. The association of cash flows with dividend changes is tested using the modified Lintner‐Brittain model as adopted in Charitou and Vafeas (1998) on pooled cross sectional/time series data from the full sample of observations from 1984‐97. The models are estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and I do find a significant relationship between dividend changes and cash flow unlike previous studies. The empirical results reveal that the relationship between cash flows and dividend changes depend substantially on the level of growth, the capital structure choice, size of each firm and economic policy changes.     

A review of earnings management in China and its implications

This paper discusses the motivations behind the earnings management of listed firms in China and provides evidence on earnings management using various accounting measures. The literature shows that earnings management occurs most often before the issue of securities or when a firm is facing the risk of being delisted. While non‐core income was widely used to measure earnings management in China, as it is easily detected, researchers are now focusing on accrual‐based models. We explore the underlying causes of earnings management in China, and conclude that the two main causes are the concentrated ownership structure and the strong political and economic connections between government and the listed companies. We review the impact of corporate governance mechanisms and government supervision on earnings management in China.     

The Mispricing of Cash Flows and Accruals at Different Life‐Cycle Stages

This paper employs the firm life‐cycle concept to extend our understanding of the mispricing of accrual and cash flow information by the stock market. We find that accruals and free cash flows are strongly (negatively) correlated in the maturity and decline stages of a firm's life cycle but not in the growth stage, suggesting that they capture unique information in the growth stage of the firm's life cycle but more correlated information in the later stages. Consistent with this finding, we show that the cash flows anomaly subsumes the accruals anomaly in maturity and decline stages, but not in the growth stage. Our findings contribute to the debate regarding the overlap between the two anomalies.     

Internal Control over Financial Reporting and the Safeguarding of Corporate Resources: Evidence from the Value of Cash Holdings

We test whether internal control weaknesses (ICWs) endanger cash resources that manifests in a lower value of cash. Our results indicate that investors value liquid assets in ICW firms substantially less than they do in non‐ICW firms. The negative valuation effect of weak internal control mainly concentrates on ICWs related to the control environment or overall financial reporting process. While firms remediating ICWs reverse the value loss from holding cash, firms whose internal control deteriorates or remains ineffective exhibit a lower value of cash. The marginal effect of ICWs on the value of cash remains significant after controlling for existing governance mechanisms and accounting conservatism, highlighting a unique governance role of internal control in mitigating unresolved agency problems and safeguarding corporate resources.     

An Examination of the Statistical Significance and Economic Relevance of Profitability and Earnings Forecasts from Models and Analysts

In this paper, we propose and empirically test a cross‐sectional profitability forecasting model which incorporates two major improvements relative to extant models. First, in terms of model construction, we incorporate mean reversion through the use of a two‐stage partial adjustment model and inclusion of a number of additional relevant determinants of profitability. Second, in terms of model estimation, we employ least absolute deviation (LAD) analysis instead of ordinary least squares because the former approach is able to better accommodate outliers. Results reveal that forecasts from our model are more accurate than three extant models at every forecast horizon considered and more accurate than consensus analyst forecasts at forecast horizons of two through five years. Further analysis reveals that LAD estimation provides the greatest incremental accuracy improvement followed by the inclusion of income subcomponents as predictor variables, and implementation of the two‐stage partial adjustment model. In terms of economic relevance, we find that forecasts from our model are informative about future returns, incremental to forecasts from other models, analysts’ forecasts, and standard risk factors. Overall, our results are important because they document the increased accuracy and economic relevance of a cross‐sectional profitability forecasting model which incorporates improvements to extant models in terms of model construction and estimation.     

Reconciling Value Estimates from the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Residual Income Model*

This paper examines why practitioners and researchers get different estimates of equity value when they use a discounted cash flow (CF) model versus a residual income (RI) model. Both models are derived from the same underlying assumption — that price is the present value of expected future net dividends discounted at the cost of equity capital — but in practice and in research they frequently yield different estimates. We argue that the research literature devoted to comparing the accuracy of these two models is misguided; properly implemented, both models yield identical valuations for all firms in all years. We identify how prior research has applied inconsistent assumptions to the two models and show how these seemingly small errors cause surprisingly large differences in the value estimates.     

知识经济下的现金流动制探析

知识经济时代的到来对现行会计的会计假设、确认原则以及信息披露等产生的重大冲击,传统的权责发生制已经不能适应这一新经济环境的发展需要,而现金流动制从盘存制思想出发采用公允价值计量的方法,可以弥补权责发生制的不足。本文阐述了现金流动制的原理及优点,分析了现金流动制的应用前景。     

Dynamic forecasting of sticky-price monetary exchange rate model

The Dornbusch-Frankel monetary model is used to estimate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for the U.S. or Canadian dollar exchange rate. By using Johansen's multivariate cointegration, up to three cointegrating vectors were found between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. This means that there is a long-run relationship between exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Based on error-correction models, the random-walk model outperforms the Dornbusch-Frankel model at every forecasting horizon. The random-walk model also dominates the Dornbusch-Frankel model with the modified money demand function at every forecasting horizon except one month. However, this paper shows that the share price variable can improve the accuracy of forecasts of exchange rates at short-run horizons.     

Financial Accounting Effects of Tax Aggressiveness: Contracting and Measurement

This study examines a setting in which a tax‐reporting decision is delegated to a firm's tax manager. Using financial accounting measures of tax expense to evaluate the tax manager allows the firm to efficiently attain the level of tax avoidance it prefers, despite the fact that the consequences of the tax‐reporting decision will occur in the future. The study also examines how well two accounting measures of tax aggressiveness — cash taxes paid and the unrecognized tax benefit — distinguish between conservative and aggressive firms.