Price Fluctuations and Growth Patterns in Singapore's Trade, 1831–1913

Using a newly created trade price index, this paper determines the real growth rate of Singapore's trade during 1831–1913. We find that Singapore's trade grew between 1831 and 1873 at a higher rate than during the later period. An analysis of the terms of trade and purchasing power parity reveals that the growth pattern of Singapore's entrepôt trade changed after 1850 from growth fuelled by transit trade of industrial products to balanced growth between regional imports and exports. This change resulted from the operation of the international monetary system, which enhanced market integration between Britain and Southeast Asia via Singapore.     

Singapore's Perspectives on the Proliferation of RTAs in East Asia and Beyond

Abstract

In this article the viewpoints and adopted strategies of Singapore in managing its trading relationship with other countries in the world is discussed. Trade being the lifeline and basis for its economic survival, Singapore has been very active in the negotiation and establishment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries, practically in every continent. Singapore's activism in bilateral FTAs is a reinforcement of its development strategy of expanding and ensuring market access for local and foreign investors. This is also in alignment with Singapore's pro- business strategy philosophy and the objective of ensuring economic viability. Also Singapore's trade accords go beyond trade liberalization and include “behind the border” impediments to trade; this is reckoned to keep the momentum of trade talk going and to hasten the process of liberalization by inducing other countries to liberalize.     

Growth accounting for a technology follower in a world of ideas: The case of Singapore

We account for the sources of Singapore's growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore benefits from international R&D spillovers. We find that 61.5% of Singapore's real GDP per worker growth over the 1970–2004 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. More specifically, 52.1% of the growth is explained by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas through improvement in Singapore's educational quality as well as increases in machinery imports and foreign direct investment from the G5 countries. Taking account of technology transfer raises the average rate of return to capital to 12.5%.     

Adjusting to the Gold Rush: Endogenous Bullion Points and the French Balance of Payments 1846–1870

In this paper, we lay the foundations of bullion points theory in the context of exchange rate analysis between bimetallic and monometallic nations. The theory is then applied to the study of the Paris–London exchange rates between 1846 and 1870. In particular, we show that both the position and spread of bullion points between monometallic and bimetallic nations reacted endogenously to shocks on international gold and silver markets. The distance between the upper and lower specie points tended to shrink when large disequilibria occurred on world bullion markets, and to expand when these disequilibria receded. Second, we show that bullion points constrictions and dilations as well as exchange rate movements triggered specie flows in and out of France, as a way to stabilize initial imbalances. France acted as the arbitrageur of last resort between the gold and silver segments of the international monetary system, and this in turn placed a substantial amount of “endogenous” pressure on its monetary system.     

Output and productivity comparisons of the Singapore and Hong Kong wholesale and retail trade sectors, 2001–2008

This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value‐added and labour productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's wholesale and retail sectors for the period 2001–08. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statement of the Singapore Government that its services sector, especially the retail sector, lagged behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's wholesale and retail sector performance in terms of labour productivity has been below Hong Kong's level, largely due to the poor performance of its retail sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity analysis of these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that have worked in Hong Kong may not work in Singapore because its population is more diverse, which poses a challenge to policymakers in raising its productivity level.     

How the German crisis of 1931 swept across Europe: a comparative view from Stockholm†

According to conventional wisdom, the fall of the Swedish currency in September 1931 was caused by the sterling crisis. This article shows that the road towards devaluation began earlier and that financial linkages with Germany proved to be more important than Sweden's economic and monetary relations with Great Britain. It all started in late 1929 when the Swedish financier Ivar Kreuger gave a loan to the German government in exchange for the match monopoly, thus tying his business ventures to Germany's solvency. In addition, a part of this loan was financed by large US dollar credits from the two largest Swedish banks that, in turn, accumulated a sizeable foreign short‐term deficit. When in June 1931 the German fiscal crisis began to escalate, international investors ceased to consider Sweden a safe haven because they knew about the linkages between the German government, Kreuger, and the Swedish banking system. This downgrading, in combination with the foreign short‐term deficit of the banking sector, proved lethal for the reserve position of the Swedish central bank, once the international liquidity crisis in mid‐July 1931 erupted. The sterling crisis only put the final nail in the coffin.     

Indonesia's stock market: evolving role,growing efficiency

The banking sector traditionally dominated Indonesia's financial system, and until the 1990s the stock market remained of little significance. Re-opened in 1977 after two decades of inactivity, the stock exchange made little contribution to Indonesia's development until a series of reform and deregulation measures were implemented from December 1987. This study examines the evolving role of the stock market in the financial system, and analyses changes in its efficiency over time. We find that stock market activity grew markedly in importance relative to banking after the reforms began to take effect, gaining the ascendancy in 2004 and moving well ahead subsequently. One contributor to this success is improvement in efficiency. Using two simple technical trading rules, we demonstrate that the stock exchange secondary market has indeed become significantly more efficient over time.     

Hypergrowth in an East Asian NIC: Public policy and capital accumulation in Singapore

Singapore has produced the world's highest investment ratios, known to account for growth more rapid than in any other less-developed country over the past three decades, but such high investment needs explanation. We trace Singapore's public policy of increasing tax concessions and infrastructural spending—in effect subsidies to private firms—and use an open-economy, neoclassical model to show how, by attracting “footloose” foreign capital and raising investment levels, these policy measures can drive growth. The consequent transformation of living standards in Singapore suggests, in accordance with theory but contrary to most practice, that for some less-developed countries effectively zero tax on foreign direct investment may be a beneficial strategy. Yet for both Singapore and other would-be late industrializers, major issues of development strategy arise from the kind of input-driven growth analyzed in this article.     

金融科技对银行业务的冲击影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

金融科技加快了银行“金融脱媒”的进程,研究金融科技对银行业务影响作用机理对商业银行的转型至关重要。利用VAR模型分析了2017—2022年商业银行贷款、存款、手续费及佣金净收入及对应市场第三方互联网支付交易规模等季度数据,通过建立VAR模型来分析金融科技对商业银行资产、负债、中间业务的冲击程度和相应解释贡献度。研究发现第三方互联网支付交易规模对商业银行的资产业务在前五期产生了较为明显的反向作用;此外余额宝的货币市场基金以及第三方互联网支付交易两者的联合依次对商业银行的负债、中间业务产生正向、反向的作用。     

Silver production and the money supply in England and Wales, 1086–c.1500

The contribution of English and Welsh lead mines to the silver supplies of mints between Domesday Book and the end of the fifteenth century is assessed in this article, comparing evidence for the size of silver production with mint output data. It is shown that the proposal that northern Pennine mines were the principal source of the silver in the late twelfth‐century English currency is untenable. Welsh mines supplied limited amounts of silver to local mints around 1200. Devon silver made a significant but not predominant contribution to mint output at times of bullion scarcity in the 1290s and the mid‐fifteenth century. Imported silver was usually a greater source of the metal in the English currency than locally mined silver, and gold coins constituted most of England's money supply from the mid‐fourteenth century onwards.     

THE EMERGENCE AND POLITICAL CONSCIOUSNESS OF THE MIDDLE CLASS IN SINGAPORE

Singapore is an example showing that economic development, the affluence it creates, the emergence of a large middle class do not inevitably lead to liberal democracy. This study examines the present situation and problem of Singapore's middle class. It first describes the emergence and the characteristics of this class. It then examines the political control of the People's Action Party government, which has crushed democratic movements in the bud, and the government's discriminatory policies, such as in education and housing, which favor the growing middle class. Lastly, it discusses new problems that are arising from the middle class's mammonism and resultant political passivity In conclusion, this study foresees that to keep the supply of material goods flowing to the middle class, the government will have to push for even greater economic development, which means that the role of the state in Singapore is likely to become even greater than before.     

Legal frameworks and credit information systems in China,Korea, and Singapore

We analyse the relationship between Public Credit Registries and Credit Bureaus in East Asia by observing credit information markets, in particular, in China, Singapore, and Korea. Singapore's credit information system consists of only a Credit Bureau. China and Korea have gone in different directions. Public Credit Registries play the role of credit information sharing in China, while Public Credit Registries and Credit Bureaus coexist in Korea. The results suggest an important relationship between the development of financial markets and credit information systems. The lower the income level and the heavier the government's hand in financial markets, the greater the need for Public Credit Registries; whereas, financial liberalisation and rising incomes encourage Credit Bureaus.     

How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003–2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.     

The emergence of a private clientele for banks in the early eighteenth century: Hoare's Bank and some women customers1

The records of Hoare's Bank and the correspondence of six of its women customers show how these women started to use the new banking services both for transferring money and for trading in the stock market. It is clear that alongside their use of the new facilities, older systems of money transfer remained important for customers. Much of the business of the bank and its customers, including their ventures into the stock market, took place within groups of people united by kinship, religion, and politics.     

An Assessment of the Singapore Skills Development System: Does it Constitute a Viable Model for Other Developing Countries?

In this paper, we briefly describe the institutional background of Singapore's successful national skills development model. We devise a tentative framework to evaluate national level skills development efforts, and we use it to assess the Singapore model. We argue that the model has the potential to move constantly toward higher skills equilibria. We question however, the long-term sustainability of the model, and whether it is transferable to other developing countries. We conclude with some principles that other countries might use in organizing their own skills development systems.     

Singapore's Bilateral Merchandise Trade Linkages with Japan and the United States: Trends,Patterns and Comparisons*

This paper analyses and compares trends and patterns in Singapore's bilateral merchandise trade relations with its two largest trading partners, Japan and the United States (US). Over the period 1976–1992, the analyses reveal that both Japan and the US have been relatively over-represented as Singapore's trade partners. However, whereas Singapore's trade with Japan has become more intensive in recent years, that with the US has become less so. Computations reveal that the degree as well as level of Singapore's intra-industry trade with the US has exceeded that with Japan. Nevertheless, while the degree of Singapore's intra-industry trade with Japan has been consistently increasing since 1981, bilateral trade with the US since 1987 has become increasingly inter- rather than intra-industry. The important nexus between trade and FDI is also highlighted.     

Squeezing the bears: cornering risk and limits on arbitrage during the ‘British bicycle mania’, 1896–8

This article examines the extent to which Victorian investors were short‐sale constrained. While previous research suggests that there were relatively few limits on arbitrage, this article argues that short‐sales of stocks outside the Official List were indirectly constrained by the risk of being cornered. Evidence for this hypothesis comes from three corners in cycle company shares which occurred in 1896–7, two of which resulted in substantial losses for short‐sellers. Legal efforts to retrieve funds lost in a corner were unsuccessful, and the court proceedings reveal a widespread contempt for short‐sellers, or ‘bears’, among the general public. Consistent with the hypothesis that these episodes affected the market, this study's findings show that cycle companies for which cornering risk was greater experienced disproportionately lower returns during a subsequent crash in the market for cycle shares. This evidence suggests that, under certain circumstances, short‐selling shares in Britain prior to 1900 could have been much riskier than previously thought.     

The driving forces of China's business cycles: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model with housing and banking

We study the approximate sources of China's business cycles in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing and banking. The model replicates well the volatility and cyclicality of key macroeconomic variables observed in the past two decades in China. A host of shock decomposition exercises demonstrate that, among the shocks being considered, both financial and housing shocks are driving China's business cycles, accounting for a particularly large fraction of the variance in most macroeconomic and financial variables at the business cycle frequencies. In particular, the capital quality, housing demand, and loan-to-value shocks display prominent contributions to the business cycle fluctuations. Moreover, there exists substantial interactions between the banking and housing sectors in China, where the collateral constraint and the financial constraint amplify with each other. The results shed new light in the understanding of China's business cycles, and may serve as a useful benchmark for future quantitative analyses of China's macroeconomic fluctuations using DSGE frameworks.     

Singapore's Collective Bargaining in a Game of Wage and Exchange Rate Policies

In Singapore's system of tripartite collective bargaining, does the wage-policy maker consistently react optimally to the best move made by the exchange rate-policy maker (Nash-rule) or only to the state of economy (non-Nash rule)? This paper finds that the Nash-rule equilibrium is unstable and thus the non-Nash rule becomes more meaningful. Under the non-Nash rule, the simulated wage growth exhibits a counter-cyclical pattern and increases with the union of workers' bargaining power. The government's role appears to strike a balance between the interests of the employers' and the employees. Consistent with actual observations, the simulated exchange-rate appreciation has acted as a complement to wage growth from 1987 to 1995.

     

黄金期货中的隐含远期人民币汇率及其运用研究

中国黄金市场已高度市场化与国际化,在按人民币即期汇率调整后,境内外黄金市场现货价格之间已没有明显的升贴水。基于黄金期货之间的隐含远期汇率与离岸人民币NDF市场远期汇率到期前的不一致性与临近到期日的一致性,运用黄金期货构建替代性的远期外汇头寸,为投资者提供了现行管制环境下实现外汇投资、跨市场套利以及对真实外汇敞口风险进行套期保值的新渠道。