Assessing the future of futures studies in management

It can be observed that a growing number of German corporations are using futures studies and its methods in various ways. This evidence suggests that there is a strong ongoing interest in the field of management in futures studies. To assess how the future of futures studies might look like a Delphi study was carried out. The experts in this Delphi study were asked not only to state how futures studies are used in corporations but also what futures studies need to accomplish in order to find more acceptance.The Delphi study suggests that futures studies will become more important in German corporations. In particular, the improvement of methods like environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring, strategic early warning and the scenario technique were suggested. While the results of the Delphi study do not suggest that new methods are needed, implementation remains a major concern.     

The nature and value of futures studies or do futures have a future?

The paper discusses the necessity for futures studies and argues the need for methods giving explicable understandings of future possibilities so that decisions and policies can be as future-proof as possible. A taxonomy for futures methodologies based on their passive, preventive or anticipatory characteristics is proposed. The anticipatory methodologies are further categorised into subjective and numerical approaches. The paper goes on to review some of the principal numerical approaches such as system dynamics and econometric methods. The subjective approaches, such as the extended scenario, Delphi and Field Anomaly Relaxation are considered and it is concluded that, in general, they, and especially Field Anomaly Relaxation, are the more fruitful line of attack on the futures problem. Some directions for further research are suggested.     

The future of health futures : Another perspective

A good ‘market’ for health futures and easy access to relevant information are among the reasons that health futures is currently centred in the wealthy nations. Interest in health futures is growing in the less developed countries, however, in part because of efforts by WHO and its regional office. Many benefits can be expected if the field becomes more international, including an influx of fresh ideas about health futures study designs and about innovative approaches to health care. A shift to a more global orientation is also imperative simply because health futures deals with the well-being of human beings, and most human beings live in the less developed countries of the world.     

The future of futures decision making

At the dawn of a new millennium, with the past one thousand years ready for reflection and the up-coming one thousand years primed for exciting new adventures, humankind seems to be trapped in the box of myopic, short-term decision making. Voices pleading to expand the horizons of our decision making to ensure sustainability of our species and countless other species on this earth are currently drowned out by a cacophony of voices trumpeting economic globalization, rapid technology development, and real-time financial markets. While futures decision making is not much in evidence today, the question addressed by this paper is whether futures decision making is even possible. Are there inherent constraints in our ability to make decisions that encompass time frames covering centuries if not millennia? An enormous amount of research has been conducted in the general area of decision making over the past several decades. Much has been learned about the psychology of human decision making and decision making within organizations. Countless methods have been developed to guide decision making. Recent work in areas such as imprecise probability and complex adaptive systems is beginning to provide boundaries as to what can be known about the future. This paper reviews much of this diverse literature and synthesizes important research findings across several disciplines to identify numerous significant barriers to futures decision making. The paper presents several recommendations on how to improve futures decision making in the future.     

A critical realist image of the future Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies

Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies grows out of his concern that fashionable philosophies of the day could undermine the very idea of a respectable, viable futures studies discipline. As his concept of “image of the future” is an effort to counter the positivist intellectual constraints on futurology, so his support of “critical realism” is part of an effort to counter the equally questionable move towards “the nihilism and relativism of postmodernist post-positivism”. Both theoretically and philosophically, Bell aims to create and keep a balance, a middle ground between extremes, trying to stabilize the still volatile foundations of futures studies. His effort is one of a founder in the most robust sense of the term. In his endeavor, Bell went beyond the rhetoric of asserting the promise of a new discipline and advertising its merits. He invested into the less glamorous but crucial effort of building the epistemological and conceptual bases able to sustain an entire intellectual edifice.     

The future according to Jesus: A Galilean model of foresight

Should futures studies situate the historical Jesus within the pre-history of their discipline? This paper proposes a first-century Galilean model, which argues that Jesus envisioned a middle-range future as a dynamic interaction of conventional, counter, and creative paths. This historical model then is compared and contrasted with 20th century frameworks of the kingdom of God, ranging from imminent, existential, inaugurated, and contextual. Suggestions are offered on how futurists might use this model to enhance their understanding of social and strategic foresight.     

The eclectics paradigm: A proposed methodology for futures studies

Eclectics is an attempt to model the present in an interdisciplinary fashion. The starting-point is an extended philosophical notion of scarcity, the analysis of which leads to certain basic theorems of choice. These theorems are then applied to quaternary, ie abstract, commodities not usually treated in economics, eg nationalism, achievement, prestige. The approach involves the definition of content from fields such as psychology, sociology, anthropology, political science; and the choice of method from economics (which is seen here as identical to the theory of choice). The advantage of eclectics is that it provides for the rigorous treatment of “non-economic” variables (and therefore humanises the economist) while at the same time exporting choice theory to other social scientists (thereby formalising what have hitherto been imprecise techniques).     

The future only arrives when things look dangerous: Reflections on futures education in the UK

This article takes the form of a personal reflection on the struggle to establish futures education in the UK school curriculum. After promising beginnings in the 1980s under the aegis of global educators the 1990s saw a retrenchment in order to create a research base and to develop appropriate support materials for teachers. Whilst until recently not understood or accepted by most mainstream educators a futures perspective is now beginning to be included in the work of geographical educators. In particular some aspects of futures thinking are also becoming enshrined in initiatives relating to education for sustainability. Encouraging teachers to develop a futures perspective in their own curriculum area may be a more profitable way forward than trying to promote futures education as a separate entity. Dominant neoliberal ideology and its influence on education will always make it difficult to challenge mainstream views of the future.     

The future of science studies

Science studies suffers from a sense of secondariness. It can abandon this inferiority if it relocates itself in terms of a politics of knowledge. Science studies should stop viewing itself as a quilt patch of subjects and reading itself as a creative mediation between knowledge and power. This is illustrated in terms of the emergence of Science Studies in India. Official India emphasized science policy as an extension of the Nation-State. Science studies arose as a response to science policy questioning the social contract between Science and State in India. Science studies emerged as a part of civil society after the Emergency of 1975 and among social movements rather than as a professionalized academic subject. In attempting to create an identity, science studies moved across four axis of possibility: the science of science, interdisciplinary science, transscience and alternative science. The second part of the paper links science studies to the democratic imagination. It argues that the citizen must be seen as a scientist, a person of knowledge not merely as a consumer and voter. The citizen thus becomes a trustee of local, defeated and marginal forms of knowledge. Its real role is in enhancing the democratic imagination, providing methodologies of conflict resolution and plural frameworks of knowledge for cognitive justice, thus emerging as a site for dissenting imaginations against the emerging global regime.     

The history of Western futures studies: An exploration of the intellectual traditions and three-phase periodization

The main purpose of this paper is to present a three-phase periodization of modern Western futures studies to construct historical classification. In order to reach this goal, the following intellectual traditions are introduced to review the philosophical and historical contexts that affect the very foundations of futures studies: (a) religions, (b) utopias, (c) historicism, (d) science fiction, and (e) systems thinking. The first phase (beginning in 1945 to the 1960s) was the era of scientific inquiry and rationalization of the futures characterized by the prevalence of technological forecasting, the rise of alternative futures in systematic ways, and the growth of professionalization of futures studies. In the first phase, futures had become objects of rationalization removed from the traditional approaches such as utopia, grandiose evolutionary ideas, naive prophecies, science fiction, religious attitudes, and mystical orientation. The second phase (the 1970s and the 1980s) saw the creation the global institution and industrialization of the futures. This era was marked by the rise of worldwide discourse on global futures, the development of normative futures, and the deep involvement of the business community in futures thinking. In the second phase, futures studies-industry ties were growing and the future-oriented thoughts extensively permeated the business decision-making process. The third phase (the 1990s – the present) reflects the current era of the neoliberal view and fragmentation of the futures. This phase is taking place in the time of neoliberal globalization and risk society discourses and is characterized by the dominance of foresight, the advance of critical futures studies, and the intensification of fragmentation. In the third phase, futures practice tends to be confined to the support of strategic planning, and hence is experiencing an identity crisis and loss of its earlier status of humanity-oriented futures.     

Corporate ethical futures: responsibility for the shadow on the future of today's ethical corporations

Humankind needs protection from the actions of corporations, which have an effect in time and space beyond the boundaries that they attend to in their day-to-day business decisions or their regulatory duties. A combination of an ethical orientation with a futures orientation gives rise to ethical futures, which produces a more developed and robust moral code for corporate organisations. In a pilot study of the current corporate social responsibility reports of five corporate organisations, a tentative qualitative relationship was found between the futures orientation of these corporations and their (BITC) corporate social responsibility index rating. Enforcing corporate ethical futures should become an imperative for stakeholders.