The challenge of the future and the institutionalization of interdisciplinarity: notes on Herman Kahn’s legacy

This article is an attempt to explore Herman Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he called “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis. In Kahn’s view, decision making and policy processes pose two crucial problems that the scholarly research is rarely forced to face: (1) the need to have and operate with a broad, multifaceted vision of phenomena and (2) the issue of coping imaginatively and realistically with future circumstances and conditions that can only vaguely be distinguished in the present. Implied in these two is the need to develop new methods and approaches fitted to the charges imposed by them. The paper discusses Kahn’s work as an integrated solution to these problems: The definition and advocacy of broad and future-oriented studies, his concept on how these studies should be institutionalized in interdisciplinary organizational systems, and the crucial position scenarios and propaedeutic and heuristic methodologies have in this context. A special attention is given to two methodological approaches he developed to cope with these challenges: Scenario Building and the Method of Classes of Variables.When twenty years ago, on July 7, 1983, Herman Kahn died suddenly at age 61, both friends and intellectual adversaries recognized that “the world lost one of its most creative and best minds” [1] and [2]. By that time Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent and best known Futures Studies scholars, a founding father of the field, with extensive and vital contributions in Strategic Studies, an area where he was also considered a founding figure and a leader [3] and [4]. His work was followed all over the world and the directions he traced in the public debate on very sensitive issues of crucial public concern have continued to be unaltered today, twenty years after his unexpected and premature death. Yet in spite of the incessant influence of his arguments and ideas, today his intellectual legacy is still to be accounted for and the breath and depth of his contributions are still to be reviewed and analyzed in a systematic way. This paper is an attempt to explore only one dimensions of this legacy: Kahn’s foundational contribution to the development of what he liked to call “broad studies”, a combination of futures research and public policy analysis.The two decades that have passed since his death allow us today to approach his work undisturbed by the “sound and fury” of the many public debates and controversies he participated in and to focus on some of the deepest and most enduring dimensions of his intellectual contributions. However while doing that, we should keep in mind that for Kahn the public policy process shaping the future and the public debate associated to it were always the focal points and the ultimate ends of his efforts. Indeed, probably the best approach to Kahn’s work is to see it in the light of his continuous concern for the practical relevance of the social research. For him the research process was always action-oriented and its ultimate test was its relevance for policy and social action. As a result, the most promising starting point for any overview of Kahn’s thought and work should be a set of crucial conclusions he reached about the policy making process and decision makers early in his career.     

If Only We Had Listened to Ross Skinner!*

Ross Skinner built his intimate knowledge of the intricacies of the art of accounting through a very long and rich career as an “accounting philosopher". This allowed him to both observe, and be part of, the formalization of today's GAAP. The duration and timing of Skinner's career also allowed him to experience directly the gradual evolution of our accounting model from an approach based largely on principles to one based increasingly on rules. The objective of this paper is to look behind accounting figures, which are the product of varying combinations of rules and judgment, and to discuss some recent events that have rocked the auditing and accounting profession. Our comments are presented in the context of views expressed by Skinner in his 1995 “Judgment in Jeopardy” article. Skinner had a keen interest in accounting history. Therefore, we begin our paper by referring to Paciol's notion of “venture accounting". We use this notion to introduce our discussion of financial reporting, which has become an important instrument of resource allocation and a challenge for professional judgment. This leads us to describe some of the ideas Skinner presented in his article on accounting judgment as “visionary". Had we listened to him, perhaps we could have avoided some of the costly changes and additions recently imposed on our governance system, such as the creation of the Canadian Public Accountability Board and the tightening of several laws and regulations.     

Social predictions, institutional design and prestige loops: Richard Henshel’s contribution to futures studies

The article is both a contribution to the intellectual history of the field and a reminder that future studies have always been concerned not only with the epistemics and the cognitive procedures regarding the future but also with the impact of ideas on the very unfolding of the future. Cases when social predictions, by the mere fact of being made public, change the situations they have predicted, are an important challenge for social theory and institutional design. Richard Henshel dedicated an important part of his work to their study. The paper starts by mapping the conceptual contours of the problem. Then it outlines the ways in which various authors have dealt with its challenge, thereby putting the distinctiveness of Henshel’s unique contribution in a clearer perspective. The paper continues by presenting Henshel’s main arguments as they were developed around the key concept of ‘prestige loop’ as well as some of the implications of the fact that social predictions and ‘prestige loops’ not only challenge the way we understand the relationship between social theory and its practical applications, but also the ways we understand the very nature of applied social science and its relationship with futures studies.     

傅格礼 引航中欧产业直通车

海外私募股权投资基金在华"淘金"者众多。作为目前中国规模最大的欧元基金,曼达林基金创始人博格礼十分看好中国潜力。     

Accounting activism and Bourdieu's ‘collective intellectual’ – Reflections on the ICL Case

The aim of this paper is to reflect upon the practice of accounting academics as ‘collective intellectuals’ – inspired by the actions and conception of Pierre Bourdieu. While accounting researchers have drawn upon Bourdieu's theoretical contributions on habitus, field and capital, little attention has been paid to his later, more critical ideas and practice of intervention post 1995. As a result, accounting research has yet to discover Bourdieu's work on the ‘collective intellectual’ and, thus, consider its contribution to our understanding of how accounting academics can participate in a form of activism against neoliberalism that would not be in contradiction with professional norms of rigorous research. Rather, activism could enhance academic research.Central to this paper is a reflection on a case of intervention involving a diverse collection of academics and activists who came together to launch a coordinated response to a large-scale industrial disaster in Scotland in 2004. The collective in question took various interventionary steps to campaign for a Public Inquiry into the disaster and seek justice and accountability for workers past and present. These steps are analysed with respect to the methods adopted and the work and practice of Bourdieu's collective intellectual.     

On the discontinuity of the future by other means: Reviewing the foresight world of Richard Slaughter

Richard Slaughter has made pioneering contributions to futures research. These contributions have been both procedural and substantive. This review seeks to appreciate some of the progress that his work has brought to the field through a review of two of Slaughter’s most recent books The Biggest Wake-up Call in History (2010) and To See with Fresh Eyes (2012). This paper traces how Slaughter’s intellectual wake-up built up over time. It highlights a set of fundamental tools, ideas and ideals that spring from Slaughter’s work over decades and is synthesised in these two books. This appraisal becomes an “augmented review” by also taking into account his book blurb material and peer-reviewed journal work. This review draws on this evidence to analyse and profile the multi-disciplinary resonance of these references and to illustrate the broader intellectual impact. In addition a bibliometric analysis offers a way beyond the two books and performs an out-of-sample assessment of the way Slaughter has continued to develop the foresight agenda.     

Beck’s creative challenge to class analysis: from the rejection of class to the discovery of risk-class

Abstract

Beck’s rejection of the relevance of class in Risk Society has had an immense impact on both the fields of class analysis and the sociology of risk. In outlining a novel theory of the systemic importance of risks as side-effects and in making bold claims about how the production and distribution of risks are undermining class inequalities, Beck posed a highly influential challenge to both risk and class studies. Beck’s impact on class analysis however has not been mainly due to widespread acceptance of his original claims about risk and class; rather, it has been research building upon Beck’s work so as to critically depart from his conclusions through which Beck has made his contributions to the study of class. In seeking to identify the impact of Beck’s work on the study of risk and class, this paper, firstly, outlines Beck’s challenge to class analysis. It then proceeds to identify three key areas of research whose development was motivated by their critical engagement with Beck’s work: the literature on risk and the continuity of class; the critical theory of the individualization of class inequality; and the political economy of risk-class. This paper then concludes by critically evaluating Beck’s more recent, partial acknowledgement of risk inequalities by arguing that there are significant limitations in his account of class, but that his work continues to offer a valuable opportunity to inspire future work on class and inequality.     

倪召兴的资本野心

真正"草根"出身的倪召兴,拿着1万元开始创业,20年后的今天已经成为在房地产和石油等领域、国内外叱咤风云的人物,连年跻身福布斯富豪之列。他的公司在加拿大威里斯顿盆地有400平方公里的油田,上百口油井;他是大股东的美国上市公司在美国墨西哥湾油田拥有600多平方公里的油田,600多口油井;他的公司在美国纽约大金融家居住区拥有600亩的贝德福德山庄地块;他的公司在香港葵涌风景迷人的贝澳海湾已经购得地块,将在那建起公司的海外总部大楼……倪召兴的下一步计划是逐步在华尔街分别打造地产、能源和矿产私募基金,未来进而成为在上述三大领域均有所作为,在全球控股拥有百幢顶尖写字楼、干吨黄金储量、日产万桶石油的综合性控股集团。这就是倪召兴策划已久的、惊人庞大的资本野心。     

The dialectic of utopian images of the future within the idea of progress

F. Polak and K. Mannheim's reconceptualization of the role of the utopist as a radical/revolutionary who acts to shatter present reality and reconstruct it according to a vision of the future is evaluated in the light of K. Popper's critique of utopian engineering; also, Popper's proposal of piecemeal engineering is critiqued and found deficient. Polak's thesis of a vital image of the future is tested on the basis of J. B. Bury's idea of progress and found to be modern-born. The historic roots of the dominant utopian image of the future (within the idea of progress) are clarified as the technological/consumer society within industrial civilization. However, as this modern thesis become dystopic, an antithesis, in the form of utopian socialism, emerged to contend with the dominant utopian image of the future throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. The dialectical struggle between contending utopic images of the future within the idea of progress brought about the progressivesocialist synthesis, which in turn, opposed by reactionary neoliberalism (a “counter-utopia), has realized a new, postmodern thesis – as global sustainable development – a reconstructed, 21st century utopian image of the future.     

1948 and not nineteen eighty-four

This article marks the return of I.F. Clarke to the pages of Futures. Those readers who have followed Futures since our first number in September 1968 will recall his long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques. He likes to be known as the oldest inhabitant of Futures so far. Professor Clarke was once described, with some accuracy, as ‘Mr Future’ by a Glasgow newspaper. The style recognized the work he has done in the investigation of the many ways in which our ideas about the future have evolved and have found expression in science fiction, imaginary wars, ideal states, Orwellian nightmares and in the proliferation of futurological studies that have swept the world since Ossip K. Flechtheim coined the term futurologist in 1943. This specially commissioned article on Orwell's true place in futures studies serves as an hors d'oeuvre to a new series in Futures by Professor Clarke: “An almanac of anticipations” will begin in the next issue.     

Morgan Stanley's Risk‐Reward Views: Unlocking the Full Potential of Fundamental Analysis

Since 2008, Risk‐Reward Views have been the basis for the recommendations on all the stocks covered by Morgan Stanley's equity research analysts globally. The firm's analysts use this systematic approach to communicate a broader range of fundamental insights about expected returns and risks, and to articulate more clearly the logic underlying their price targets and calls, and the level of conviction associated with them. The rationale for this approach is to align the firm's research product with its clients' thinking and investment discipline while also creating a link between traditional equity analysis and widely accepted principles of modern portfolio management. Too many sell‐side analysts still try to manifest expertise and conviction with one‐sided investment theses backed by single‐point estimates and “table pounding.” That does a disservice to investors who are looking to sell‐side analysts for an ongoing dialogue about the future with experts on company fundamentals. Risk‐Reward Views are designed to produce a more complete view of the risk‐reward trade‐off in a given stock. They are meant to supplement the use of quant‐only risk models that, while offering at least the illusion of precision, are also often opaque and backward looking. The approach aims to increase transparency while avoiding unnecessary complexity by focusing on a handful of critical uncertainties and modeling a manageable number of coherent scenarios that are relevant to investor debates and cover a full range of plausible outcomes. This article focuses on the theoretical underpinnings of the department's Risk‐Reward initiative. For a more detailed discussion of the institutional setting and the processes followed to implement these ideas, readers are referred to the recently published Harvard Business School case study, “The Risk‐Reward Framework at Morgan Stanley Research” (Harvard Business School Case N9–111–011).     

Images of the future: a historical perspective

In an attempt to create a futures philosophy, this paper analyzes and critiques Fredrich Polak’s Image of the future, a philosophy of history that contends that the image of the future of a society or culture defines a particular era and is the key to understanding of the rise and fall of civilizations. Polak’s view is compared with J.B. Bury’s ideas expressed in The idea of progress. The paper also illustrates how Max Weber’s The protestant ethic and the Spirit of capitalism contributes to an understanding of the progressive image of the future which, along with utopian images of the future, composes the dialectic of futures images. It shows how progressive and utopian images of the future have been expressed in dialectical world history and how they are still relevant today to serve as an insight for prognosis. Finally, it examines and answers Polak’s charge that existentialism is the cause for the destruction of the modern image of the future.     

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.     

Revolutionary change in our worldview?

Fritjof Capra has become internationally known through two pioneering books, both best sellers, titled The Tao of Physics and The Turning Point. His third book, Green Politics which he wrote with Charlene Spretnak, was published in May 1984. The central theme which runs through all his work is the paradigmatic change in the Western view of the world. This article is taken from several conversations which Bart van Steenbergen had with Fritjof Capra. It begins with some background information and then looks at Fritjof Capra's work over the past 15 years.     

Wang Anshi and the origins of modern public management in Song Dynasty China

Wang Anshi (1021–1086) is well known as one of the greatest statesmen of classical China, but it is rarely recognized that his 1058 ‘Wan Yan Shu’ is one of the first texts of public management in the modern sense. This is because Wang addressed still current concerns of a civil service—selection, training, motivation, remuneration—often presenting solutions that are completely in line with today's perspectives. Wang's work is particularly relevant now given the current global state of public management—post-NPM but with no clear new paradigm having emerged.     

Wendell Bell, the scholar and the human being: His way of looking towards the future

Since his early professional life, Wendell Bell has sought to understand societies in terms of their changes by identifying the connections between sociology and futures studies. His aim, in my view, has been to use his highly developed intellectual capacity to search for indications of alternative futures, and his writings make a crucial contribution to sociology and futures studies and to their necessary interconnections. His efforts are unique in that they are based on the importance of ethical principles to guide human responsibility in present and future societies. His intellectual, professional capacities, as well as his experience, consist in an endeavour to understand the human being as well as its social context. This constant search emerges very clearly from Bell's writings and lectures, as well as from all his human contacts with colleagues, students and friends.     

When your star performer can't manage

Vic, the CEO of a sporting goods company in this fictional case study, is pleased with the numbers. For several years now, they've gone steadily in one direction: up. But there's trouble in paradise Hidden from the public's view of industry-dominating winners--from the coolest snowboards to the hottest in-line skates--lies a product development department that may be ready to shatter like cheap fiberglass. There's one reason in particular for the dark rumblings that periodically reach Vic, and his name is Linus Carver. Carver, the company's chief of product development, is the workaholic mad genius who is responsible for most--he might say all--of the company's successful products. At the same time, he has managed to alienate the rest of his staff, including the two whizkid Generation Xers he brought in. He has been charged with everything from stealing ideas to squashing the initiative of the rest of the team. From his perch as CEO, Vic preaches "team". And he's even made a few stabs at reining Carver in--his latest move has been to recommend that his mercurial star get some coaching. But Vic also knows who butters his bread. In short, he's bewildered. Four commentators suggest how Vic can keep the company's product-development group intact and it sales growth strong.     

Beyond economic and value wars: Mythic images of future cities

Images of the future are essential to a society's survival. According to Polak [1], images of the future reflect and foreshadow society's future; as images go, so goes society. As a visual medium, cities in particular depend on robust images of the future. I submit that our ability to develop useful images of future cities depends on our visual literacy in understanding architectural images. This study explores alternative futures illustrated with future fantasies as an experiment in connecting images, archetypal myths, and alternative futures. Using two variables (strength of the economy and shifts in social values), four scenarios are proposed: Frontier Freedoms, Urban Fortress, Eco-Survival, and Utopian Hopes. Scenarios of future cities depicted by architectural imagery and linked to worldviews and archetypal myths broaden public discourse beyond economics and technology to address qualitative contextual factors such as identity, community, sacredness, and nature.     

A comparison of auditor and client initial negotiation positions and tactics

This study examines the initial negotiation positions and tactics of auditors and clients facing a revenue recognition conflict. We investigate the degree of flexibility in auditor and client initial negotiation positions, whether auditors and clients accurately perceive the other party’s positions, and the types of negotiation tactics that may be used by both parties. The results indicate that auditors and clients approach conflict resolution in very different ways. Clients were more flexible, determined the auditor’s goals and limits more accurately, and were more likely to use negotiation tactics such as bid high/concede later and trade-off one reporting issue for another. The implications of these findings and directions for future research are discussed.