The future only arrives when things look dangerous: Reflections on futures education in the UK

This article takes the form of a personal reflection on the struggle to establish futures education in the UK school curriculum. After promising beginnings in the 1980s under the aegis of global educators the 1990s saw a retrenchment in order to create a research base and to develop appropriate support materials for teachers. Whilst until recently not understood or accepted by most mainstream educators a futures perspective is now beginning to be included in the work of geographical educators. In particular some aspects of futures thinking are also becoming enshrined in initiatives relating to education for sustainability. Encouraging teachers to develop a futures perspective in their own curriculum area may be a more profitable way forward than trying to promote futures education as a separate entity. Dominant neoliberal ideology and its influence on education will always make it difficult to challenge mainstream views of the future.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

Ethical dilemmas: Teaching futures in schools

Educational policy is implicitly futures oriented, yet in most instances fails to engage learners with explicit futures tools and concepts at a school level. Futures studies in education, or futures education has the potential to reposition learning as purposeful and mobilizes the lives of participants by connecting the curriculum of schools with the multifaceted futures of learners. This is a complex task within the tensions often existing between: the cultural role of a school, the expectations of a society, the expertise of teachers, and the increasingly diverse needs of learners (Bateman, 2012). It is between the tensions of these things that the ‘ethical’ issues of what is taught, or omitted as content in a classroom and the consequences of these choices are evident.This paper highlights ethical and moral dilemmas, as they were apparent in two futures education projects. In the first study, the teachers discuss the inherent limitations of offering a broader and more futures oriented curriculum. In the second study, teachers reflect upon their students’ anxiety with regards to futures images as they are interrogated within a curriculum study. Each of these studies highlights the ethical challenges that arise, when possible, preferable and probable futures are developed as part of learning in school settings, which are culturally and demographically diverse.Tirri and Husu (2002) highlight the ethical dilemmas, which emerge in classrooms around the world, based on conflicts in values and competing intentions between key stakeholders. In the studies which contribute to this discussion, there is evidence to suggest that futures thinking causes conflict within an individual's perception of how the world should be, or their worldview as a result of futures imagining which goes beyond what is taken for granted, or is an assumed future eventuality. In the same way, Carrington, Deppeler, and Moss (2010) argue that all curriculum choices about what is taught (or not taught) in a classroom reflect an ethical decision made by a teacher, with regards to what is foregrounded for learning and what is omitted.It is crucial to re-examine the role of a school in educating students for their futures, as opposed to educating students with an aim of furthering governmental agendas. More significantly, however, as this paper highlights, it is exploring the boundaries of what is acceptable or unacceptable, appropriate or inappropriate to teach in a classroom, given the changing diversities of schools and education systems throughout the world.     

How to make India a knowledge-based society

The National Knowledge Commission set up by the Prime Minister of India, Dr. Manmohan Singh, in 2005 was, perhaps, the first of its kind. One of its three objectives is to make India a knowledge-based society. Among the important areas in the country where problems need to be addressed to achieve the above objective, three—education, knowledge empowerment of Panchayats (the lowest of the three-tier local self-government system in India), and ethical commercialization of the country's creative and cultural tradition—are briefly described in the article. Some steps that need to be taken in each area are stated. For example, in regard to education, we must decommercialize school and higher education, and set up 400,000 high schools in the country where children would receive high-quality free education for 10 years—that is, up to the age of 16. As regards the Panchayats, we need to institute a system so that they are empowered through knowledge in areas of immediate interest to them as well as knowledge that would make them truly informed citizens of the country. In regard to traditional knowledge, it needs to be ensured that the keepers and practitioners of this knowledge are compensated adequately and fairly if such knowledge is commercialized.     

Forecasts or fallacies: Two issues for futures research on the internet

This paper explores the idea of futures research online, and considers whether two issues in particular — high rates of change, and complexity — pose a significant problem to the success of internet-orientated futures research. In particular, these two potential problems will be considered from the perspective of new developments within futures research frameworks and methodologies.     

Is it possible to make scientific forecasts in social sciences?

This article attempts to answer the question, whether and how it is possible to make scientific forecasts in social sciences through the investigation of the actual scientific-philosophical problems and methodological aspects of futures studies.¹ Following a critical analysis it describes the scientific-philosophical features of uncovering and forecasting the possible futures from the classic predictions to the latest approaches. In the methodological chapter it turns its attention to the impossibility of making scientific predictions and demonstrates the methods with the help of which—reacting to the challenges of uncertainty, instability and various changes—futures studies can perform its original function, i.e. supports present decisions providing information about the future.     

An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?

In this paper we study whether the commodity futures market predicts the commodity spot market. Using historical daily data on four commodities—oil, gold, platinum, and silver—we find that they do. We then show how investors can use this information on the futures market to devise trading strategies and make profits. In particular, dynamic trading strategies based on a mean–variance investor framework produce somewhat different results compared with those based on technical trading rules. Dynamic trading strategies suggest that all commodities are profitable and profits are dependent on structural breaks. The most recent global financial crisis marked a period in which commodity profits were the weakest.     

Integral Futures: An approach to futures inquiry

This paper sketches the broad outlines of the philosophical and methodological foundations of an emerging approach to inquiry—‘integral inquiry’—and how this form of inquiry may be applied to futures studies, leading to an approach which has come to be called ‘Integral Futures’.     

Globally scanning for “Megatrends of the Mind”: Potential futures of futures thinking

This paper focuses on emergent signs of evolutionary change in human thinking that run parallel with many of the exponential changes manifesting in the external world. Weak signals are identified from the early 20th century indicating the emergence of new knowledge patterns. These signals have strengthened in the last 40 years. The paper first identifies new ways of thinking within several disciplines such as science, philosophy, religion and education. New knowledge patterns are then identified in discourses that traverse disciplinary boundaries through transdisciplinary approaches such as futures studies and planetary/global studies. The paper then discusses evolution of consciousness, identifying research that theorises new ways of thinking as being related to individual psychological development and/or socio-cultural evolution. Finally, evolutionary concepts are discussed that attempt to meta-cohere the new knowledge patterns via the terms postformal, integral and planetary. Notably, academic research on “futures of thinking,” “evolution of consciousness” and/or “global mindset change” has been, until now, largely ignored by mainstream academic discourse on evolution, consciousness and futures studies.     

Self-reflexive challenges of integrative futures

Contrasts the approach to “futures” characteristic of Ken Wilber, and Integral Futures, with the approach taken by David Lorimer, and the Scientific and Medical Network. The differences between these approaches, for any integrative understanding of futures, are presented as arising from stylistic preferences and biases which are usefully highlighted with a range of metaphors. These however highlight the challenge of any more integrative understanding, especially in the light of hidden dynamics of exclusion in a questionable effort to demonstrate that one approach is “better” than another in a complex human endeavour—especially when the future is sensed strategically through other metaphors than “vision”. Consideration is given to the possible use of a pattern language to address such issues, especially given questions regarding the adequacy of text on a conventional surface to hold complex significance and interrelationships. It is concluded that integrative futures is then the strange quest for how cognitively to embody the extremes represented by Wilber and Lorimer in the present—to evoke the greater harmony through engaging creatively with the dissonant pattern of imperfections.     

Theory and practice in transformation: The disowned futures of Integral extension

The strength of futures studies is its epistemological pluralism. Integral futures as defined by Slaughter and Riedy loses sight of this strength. Instead of an interpretive dialogue, the “Integral Extension” seeks to frame and define causal layered analysis (CLA) within its own terms. Its proponents do so by constructing their version of Integral as above—more evolved, higher, more… and CLA as lower. Integral, in Riedy and Slaughter's terms, appears to inhabit the totalizing linear modernist paradigm, not to mention the straightjacket of the masculinist discourse. Their strategy is the classic defining of the other within the terms of the person who seeks to define. Riedy's piece in particular makes a strange series of errors in that it: (1) confuses Vedanta with Tantra; (2) misreads subjectivity—arguing that subjectivity does not exist for the poststructural, instead of seeing how the self is contextualized with structure and genealogy (as in Foucault's work); (3) misses the entire work around inner CLA; (4) adopts the Orientalist discourse of constructing CLA as cultural (instead of recognizing that it seeks to move up and down layers of data, systems, worldviews and myths), and (5) is not grounded in the practice of conducting layered analysis with varied groups. This essay concludes by arguing that there is no need for this battle. We do not need to be either for or against Integral or CLA. We can live in multiple spaces, use different theories and methodologies, each having its purpose, each useful depending on the person, time and particular space we inhabit.     

Transcending flatland: Implications of Ken Wilber's meta-narrative for futures studies

The Western futures project was originally founded on empiricist notions of prediction, forecasting and control. While other approaches to futures work, other traditions and ways of knowing, have certainly become established, the early framing of Futures Studies arguably occurred out of this broadly reductionist framework—what Wilber has since termed `flatland'. As a result, current ideologies such as: economic growth, globalisation, the pre-eminence accorded to science and technology, and `man's conquest of nature'—were insufficiently problematised. Technology-led views of the future remain influential within Futures Studies, bureaucratic thinking and popular culture. In this view, the future is less open than it might be because it is seen merely as an extension of the present. Critical Futures Studies question such assumptions. The paper explores how the work of this leading transpersonal synthesist can contribute both to a broadening and deepening of Futures Studies and thus help to activate cultural options that are presently obscured.     

Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

Transforming teachers’ temporalities: Futures in an Australian classroom

There is much rhetoric in education about the ways in which students are prepared for ‘the future’. The notion of the future in Australian education is dominantly singular, vague and abstract. This paper describes research which investigates changes which occur within teacher practices, enacted curriculum and student learning. The case study at the centre of this research focuses on a primary school south-east of Melbourne, Australia, which is internationally acknowledged as ‘innovative and leading’ in ‘educating for the future’. Initially, it was apparent that this notion of the future was assumed, and these specific teachers had given little thought to what that future looked like, or how that related to students’ learning requirements. As a result of professional learning, the teachers underwent temporal transformation, in integrating explicit futures dimensions within their curriculum. Arising from this research were significant key findings which highlight the need for a reconceptualisation of the ways in which curriculum and pedagogy are enacted in regards to notions of multiple futures. Furthermore, it generates renewed calls for futures perspectives to be addressed explicitly within education. Importantly it highlights a deficit in current teacher thinking about their roles in ‘educating for the future’.     

Consumer education and everyday futures work

The purpose of this article is to draft new tasks for consumer education in a transformed and transforming world and consumption situation. The basic claim is that consumer education needs to become empowering or emancipatory, and that this can be reached through emphasizing the futures aspect and skills concerning everyday futures work. The functions of traditional consumer education can be described as socializative, preventive and corrective. This is not enough in a rapidly changing world in which consumers face completely new challenges. Section 2 of this article studies changes focal to the individual consumer. In Section 3 I define the basic functions of a household as an economic unit, consumption and consumer education. In Section 4 I continue the analysis of the functions of consumer education with the help of the neologism everyday futures work, which is grounded on the application of Joseph Nuttin's theory of action. I also argue that to fulfill an empowering function, consumer education has to emphasize the futures aspect. The core concept here is futures-will, which highlights the dynamic character of human action. In Section 5 I suggest relevant solutions for consumer education in relation to the challenges and functions of consumption described above as well as explain how the enhancing of everyday futures work skills could be applied in the framework of the cycle of human action. I conclude the article by discussing some recent topics in consumer education to show that consumer education thinking is in some measure - even if not often explicitly expressed - converging with futures education.     

A new educational paradigm for the new millennium: Consciousness-based education

It is the year 2050 and education is dramatically different from education in the 20th century. At the basis of the new education is the insight that a field of pure consciousness exists which can easily be experienced by all. From this insight, a new educational paradigm has emerged—consciousness-based education—with a more profound understanding of human development and how to promote it. The primary goal of education now is enlightenment and the entire curriculum is organised to foster this goal. The flowering of human potential produced by this educational approach has created a new age for humanity—the Age of Enlightenment.     

Constitution

In looking toward the futures of Europe, the focal point of the legal and governmental aspects of European life has recently become the Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe—or just the ‘Constitution’ as it has become colloquially known. That socio-linguistic act of referring to a document as a constitution is a mammoth move. First, it ignores all of the concerns and hand-wringing around the idea of producing a legal document called a constitution that might immediately be thought of as a sovereign-building document, such as the German constitution or the Irish constitution. Second, it suggests that the people of Europe are in some way similarly situated as together to constitute something. In this article, the author continues a series of reflections on words regarding futures, and takes an extensive look at the use, misuse and power of the word ‘constitution’.     

A futures perspective in Dutch geography education

Geography education offers many possibilities for futures education. In The Netherlands, a future perspective is obvious in the vision behind the curriculum for secondary education, but this perspective becomes thinner and less open when elaborated in the syllabus, textbooks and examinations. From an intended ideal curriculum with challenging future relevant issues and a call for scenario thinking, it changes into a presentation of a fixed and often negative future in the perceived implemented curriculum. In a focus group meeting with stakeholders of the geography educators’ community, there is recognition of the importance of a futures perspective. But there is also uncertainty and unfamiliarity, when it comes to implementing a futures perspective in geography education. Moreover, the institutional constraints, with an output testing regime, prevent the geography educators from making substantial room in their implemented curriculum for futures education. To enable geography teachers to implement or improve a futures perspective in their education, more clarity about the function and form is necessary. By researching and supporting good teaching practice, the expertise needed can be built, extended and used to empower a lobby advocating a more supportive national policy.     

Incorporating futures research into regional knowledge creation and management

This article focuses on future-oriented knowledge within regional innovation networks. Concrete regional tools and institutional settings aiming to enhance knowledge creation and management in such networks are needed. To enable planning for the future, there is a need for regional visionary capability. Resource-based futures research may make an important contribution in reducing the insecurity that regions face in the turbulent environment. When foresight processes are not absorbed into the regional strategy making processes, ‘black holes of regional strategy making’ come into existence, and future scenarios are built without taking into consideration the path-dependency of a region.This article attempts to reduce the gap between futures research, on the one hand, and regional knowledge and innovation management, on the other hand. It highlights the concept of self-transcending knowledge—the ability to sense the presence of potential. It then introduces a new, systemic model for knowledge creation and management in regional innovation networks. Utilising methods from futures research in creating self-transcending knowledge in a regional knowledge management system is proposed as a fruitful way of enhancing regional visionary capability. The article thus advocates combining approaches and methodologies from futures research with those of knowledge management in a novel way.