The Impact of the U.S. Bio-Terrorism Act upon Canadian Exporters of Food Products to the United States: A Firm-Level Analysis

This article examines the impact of the 2002 U.S. Bio-terrorism Act (BTA) upon Canadian exporters of food products to the United States. A major goal of the BTA is to secure U.S. ports of entry against imports that might threaten the health or safety of U.S. citizens. Although this is a respectable goal, data from a sample of 144 Canadian exporters suggest that the BTA represents a non-tariff barrier to Canada-U.S. trade. Current regulatory procedures have disrupted cross-border supply chains in significant ways. These disruptions have damaged the Canada-U.S. commercial relationship by imposing extra shipment and distribution costs upon Canadian exporters. These delays have had a serious impact upon small-to-medium sized firms (SMFs). The article concludes with a brief discussion of possible remedial actions that might be taken by Canadian exporters.     

基于污染的中美贸易实证研究

从污染排放视角考察了2004年中美26个工业产业的进出口贸易,结果显示,尽管中国出口美国单位产值的污染强度低于进口单位产值的污染强度,但由于中美贸易的不平衡,中国向美国出口产品的污染物排放总量远超出了进口产品的污染物排放量,表明中美贸易不平衡恶化了中国环境,需要从贸易产生的环境利益角度综合评价贸易顺差。     

从历史视角看美国贸易政策的本质

美国的贸易政策是指能直接影响美国进出口地理方向和进出口商品结构、跨国投资的政府措施。必须从经济和政治结合的角度去理解美国的贸易政策,美国贸易政策的本质是实现美国国内外经济利益和政治利益的工具或手段。贸易保护主义和贸易自由化都是美国利益的实现方式。认识美国贸易政策的本质为认识中美贸易方面存在的问题提供一种思路。     

Airplanes and comparative advantage

Airplanes are a fast but expensive means of shipping goods, a fact which has implications for comparative advantage. The paper develops a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods which vary by weight and hence transport cost. Comparative advantage depends on relative air and surface transport costs across countries and goods, as well as stochastic productivity. A key testable implication is that the U.S. should import heavier goods from nearby countries, and lighter goods from faraway counties. This implication is tested using detailed data on U.S. imports from 1990 to 2003. Looking across goods the U.S. imports, nearby exporters have lower market share in goods that the rest of the world ships by air. Looking across exporters for individual goods, distance from the US is associated with much higher import unit values. These effects are large, which establish that the model identifies an important influence on specialization and trade.     

Airplanes and comparative advantage

Airplanes are a fast but expensive means of shipping goods, a fact which has implications for comparative advantage. The paper develops a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods which vary by weight and hence transport cost. Comparative advantage depends on relative air and surface transport costs across countries and goods, as well as stochastic productivity. A key testable implication is that the U.S. should import heavier goods from nearby countries, and lighter goods from faraway counties. This implication is tested using detailed data on U.S. imports from 1990 to 2003. Looking across goods the U.S. imports, nearby exporters have lower market share in goods that the rest of the world ships by air. Looking across exporters for individual goods, distance from the US is associated with much higher import unit values. These effects are large, which establish that the model identifies an important influence on specialization and trade.     

Rules for the disposition of tariff revenues and the determination of common external tariffs in customs unions

This paper is about the determination of common external tariffs (CETs) in customs unions (CUs). We first examine how the relationship between preferences over CET levels, technology and the distribution of factor ownership in a CU is conditioned by the rule that determines the disposition of tariff revenues. We then explore how majority voting at the country level translates these preferences into an equilibrium CET. Among other things, we find that, when revenues are partitioned in proportion to members’ imports, tariff preferences may be polarized, the trade patterns of some CU members may be endogenous, and, as a result, their payoff functions may not be single-peaked. This leads to voting outcomes that dramatically differ from those arising under other sharing rules (e.g., the ‘population’ and ‘consumption’ rules) and raises the possibility of a Condorcet paradox.     

Anti‐dumping duty circumvention through trade rerouting: Evidence from Chinese exporters

We study the evasion of US anti‐dumping duties by some Chinese exporters through trade rerouting via third countries or regions. Using detailed monthly trade data reported by China and the US Customs during the period of 2002–06, we find that US anti‐dumping actions against China lead to a stronger positive correlation between US imports from third countries and Chinese exports to the same third countries. Such a positive correlation is more pronounced for the products subject to anti‐dumping duties (treatment groups) than similar products not subject to these duties (control groups). The evidence is stronger for less‐differentiated products whose certificates of origins are easier to be modified and is stronger for third countries where the rerouting cost is low. These findings are consistent with a trade rerouting story, rather than a simple story of trade diversion (i.e., increase in some third countries' imports from China) and trade deflection (i.e., increase in some third‐country exports to the US). We also rule out other alternative stories, consider prior production in third countries and concurrent anti‐dumping actions against China or third countries, pay a particular attention to the many zero trade flows in the monthly level data and check the robustness to using an alternative control group and quarterly data, etc.     

The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth‐path‐aligned economic geography typologies – resource‐rich; landlocked and resource‐poor; coastal and resource‐poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource‐poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource‐poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.     

美国对华贸易歧视政策及原因剖析

入世以来,中国对美贸易快速增长,中美贸易摩擦不断升温,为了限制中国产品进入美国市场,美国对华实施了歧视性贸易政策,同时成为美国实施贸易救济政策最多的国家,对我国的对外贸易发展产生了很大的负面影响,文章就美国对华歧视性贸易政策及实施原因做出分析.     

Beyond the Information Technology Agreement: Harmonisation of Standards and Trade in Electronics

Product standards can have a dual impact on costs and, thus, on trade. They can impose costs on exporters as it may be necessary to adapt products for specific markets (cost effect). In contrast, standards can reduce exporters’ information costs as they convey information on product characteristics (informational effect). Using a new World Bank database of European standards for electronic products, we examine the net impact of internationally harmonised European standards on European Union imports. We find that European Union standards for electronic products that are harmonised to international standards have a significant and a positive net effect on trade. The results suggest that efforts to promote trade in electronic products could be complemented by steps to promote standards harmonisation. This might include, for example, restarting talks to extend the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement to commitments to harmonise national standards in electronic products.     

三角贸易模式对中国对美出口增长的影响

中国在国际生产网络中的地位日益突出,主要扮演着加工装配地的角色,即从日本、韩国等工业化国家或地区进口中间品,经过加工装配后再将最终产品出口至以美国、欧盟为主的发达国家或地区,从而形成了三角贸易模式。中国对美出口的快速增加与三角贸易模式的发展密切相关,文章研究表明,中间品进口的增加和三角贸易模式的发展显著地促进了中国对美出口的增加,因此中美贸易失衡主要不是一种双边贸易现象,而是一种结构性现象。     

中美经贸摩擦如何影响了大豆进口——基于贸易转移与创造效应视角

中美经贸摩擦背景下,中国对美国大豆进行反制,加征25%关税,那么,中国对美豆加征关税,会对中国大豆来源布局和产业产生怎样影响。文章利用寡头竞争理论,使用2002年1月~2020年3月中国海关数据,利用进口需求模型(AIDS),分析了加征关税对农产品贸易可能发生的贸易损害、贸易转移和贸易创造效应。实证结果表明,中国对美国大豆并不存在刚性依赖,对美加征关税将发生显著贸易转移效应和创造效应。即对美关税每增加1%,将会导致其对中国大豆出口下降1.29%,对巴西大豆进口上涨0.67%,对阿根廷大豆进口上涨0.66%,对其他国家进口上涨1.03%。中国市场增长和加征关税,将会造成国际大豆贸易创造效应,并激发非传统国家进入大豆贸易市场。     

Globalization and the ‘confidence game’

We show that governments in developing countries have an incentive to play the “confidence game” — wherein the need to win the confidence of the international capital market ‘can actually prevent a country from following otherwise sensible policies and force it to follow policies that it would normally consider perverse’. This incentive arises because of a combination of a ‘conformity bias’ and ‘good news bias’ in governmental decision making in an open economy, which results in inefficient outcomes which increases rather than decreases the threat of devaluation. While institutions that encourage greater transparency and the public revelation of information, may often mitigate this inefficiency, on some occasions increased transparency may even exacerbate the inefficiency.     

High-tech R&D subsidies Estimating the effects of Sematech

Sparked by concerns about their shrinking market share, 14 leading U.S. semiconductor producers, with the financial assistance of the U.S. government in the form of $100 million in annual subsidies, formed a joint R&D consortium — Sematech — in 1987. Using Compustat data on all U.S. semiconductor firms, we estimate the effects of Sematech on members' R&D spending, profitability, investment, and productivity. In so doing we examine two hypotheses: the ‘commitment’ hypothesis that Sematech obligates member firms to spend more on high-spillover R&D, and the ‘sharing’ hypothesis that Sematech reduces duplication of member R&D spending. Whereas the commitment hypothesis provides a rationale for the government subsidies, the sharing hypothesis does not. We find that Sematech induced members to cut their overall R&D spending on the order of $300 million per year, providing support for the sharing hypothesis.     

我国对外贸易与污染产业转移的实证分析

通过对我国工业制品对外贸易的定量分析,本文发现我国主要专业化于低污染型产品的生产,在污染密集型产品生产方面并不具有比较优势,而且在我国污染密集型产品贸易中进口大于出口,属于净进口型贸易,因此我国不会成为发达国家的“污染避难所”。     

Movies and the Mystery of the Missing Trade: Is Hollywood Good for U.S. Exporters?

Research has shown that consumers have a preference for goods based on the origin of production. This is important because it suggests that, in some cases, even lowering trade barriers may not significantly increase trade flows. In particular, flows may be lower than are predicted by trade theories such as Heckscher-Ohlin. Despite evidence that home consumption bias exists in many countries, it is only recently that research has begun to examine the sources of this bias.

This article fills a gap in the literature by testing a model that addresses the source of this consumption bias. The paper's model incorporates consumers' exposure to foreign products and culture through media imports and tourist visits as factors affecting consumers' preferences for foreign products. Using panel data from 19 countries, the article's results support the hypothesis that lagged exports of U.S. movies have a positive impact on other U.S. exports. Some evidence is also found of a positive effect of tourist visits on U.S. exports.

Since U.S. media exports may generate demand for other U.S. goods and services, opening up foreign media markets should receive a higher priority in U.S. trade negotiations. Another interesting implication of the paper is that overall U.S. export losses resulting from media piracy may be lower than previously calculated, as the consumption of pirated media products may increase demand for other U.S. exports.     

美国储蓄不足和全球储蓄过剩是美国贸易逆差产生的根本原因

美国贸易逆差以及主要由贸易逆差造成的经常帐户赤字已成为世界经济关注的热点问题。对美国贸易逆差产生原因的解释众多,本文以主流经济学分析框架得出美国储蓄不足是美国贸易逆差的根本原因的结论。美国国内储蓄不足导致外国资本的流入。外国资本一方面为美国提供了购买力,补充了美国的储蓄,另一方面,美国可用外国提供的购买力进口产品,满足自己的需求。美国的贸易逆差是其储蓄不足的结果。从全球视角出发,其他国家的储蓄增加,为美国补充了储蓄,为美国贸易逆差的产生提供了外部条件。认识美国贸易逆差产生的原因,可以更有利地支撑美国贸易逆差与中国对其贸易顺差没有根本联系的观点,及人民币汇率问题不是美国贸易逆差根本原因的观点。     

Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry

This paper develops a method for assessing whether or not imports have been the most significant cause of injury to a U.S. industry. Such a determination is required under the 'escape clause' provisions (Section 201) of the Trade Act of 1974. The method is applied to the case of the U.S. steel industry, which recently petitioned the I.T.C. for import relief. We find that relief is not warranted if the relevant period is taken to be 1976–1983, as specified in the industry's petition. The results are less clear for the shorter period from 1979 to 1983.     

How do exporters respond to antidumping investigations?

Using monthly transaction data covering all Chinese exporters over the 2000–2006 period, we investigate how Chinese exporters respond to U.S. antidumping investigations. We find that antidumping investigations cause a substantial decrease in the total export volume at the HS-6 digit product level, and that this trade-dampening effect is due to a significant decrease in the number of exporters, yet a modest decrease in the export volume per surviving exporter. We also find that the bulk of the decrease in the number of exporters is exerted by less productive exporters, by direct exporters as opposed to trade intermediaries, and by single-product direct exporters as opposed to their multi-product counterparts. Combined with the existing studies on the effects that antidumping investigations have on protected firms, our study helps piece together a complete picture of the effects of antidumping investigations.     

Bilateral Trade under Environmental Pressure: Balanced Growth

Based on the advance-retreat course (ARC) model - a growth model under environmental pressure, this paper builds a bilateral import and export trade growth model under environmental pressure. By using the model, the paper analyzes the impacts of innovation on import and export growth, presents a method for computing the optimal levels of imports and exports, derives the limit values of imports and exports, and obtains the limit equilibrium between exports and imports. Finally, a strategy for promoting import and export growth and achieving a bilateral trade balance according to the limit equilibrium is designed. The findings are the following: (i) innovation growth will gradually reduce goods import and export, and services import and export will increase, (ii) the U.S. import–export structure is more reasonable than that of China, and (iii) there is big room for services import and export growth for China.