Wholesale Oil Market to Open to Foreigners

The government plans to heavily invest in coal liquefaction plants in the next five to 10 years as part of efforts to reduce its dependence on highpriced oil imports, the China Oilnews reported February 9, citing the country＇s top economic planning agency.     

Emissions trading: Impact on electricity prices and energy-intensive industries

Under the EU-wide Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), CO₂ allowances have thus far been allocated largely free of charge. This paper presents a didactic synthesis on the impact of the ETS and argues that such a cost-free allocation will lead to an increase in electricity prices even when strong competition prevails in electricity markets. Electricity prices are also likely to increase as a consequence of the environmentally desirable fuel switch from coal to natural gas in the power sector when certifi cates are entirely auctioned in the power sector as of 2013. This tendency may be attenuated, but not outweighed, by the price decrease of CO₂ allowances over the long term.     

The world market in coal— Requirements for the year 2000

Shrinking reserves of oil and natural gas at a time of increasing global energy requirements can mean a new future for coal, large reserves of which exist, half of them In the Western sphere of influence. The “renaissance of coal”, however, is not a natural law which operates on its own. The sooner the necessary decisions are taken on a world-wide basis, the more effectively will coal be able to play its new role in the international energy industry and the less will be the frictional losses along the road to a new energy future.     

A global compass for the great divergence: Emissions versus production centres of gravity 1820–2008

We construct the world's centres of gravity for human population, GDP and CO₂ emissions by taking the best out of five recognised data sources covering the last two centuries. On the basis of a novel distortion‐free representation of these centres of gravity, we find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO₂ emission centres in the nineteenth century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic centre of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the twentieth century, after World War I for CO₂ emissions, after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centres are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are perfectly consistent with the lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution, the gradual replacement of coal by oil and gas as alternative sources of energy and the progressive catch‐up of Asian countries in the recent past.     

我国环境质量和能源消费的灰色关联分析

经济发展、环境质量和能源消费互相制约。以2003-2008年我国的主要环境质量指标和能源消费指标数据为依据,用灰色关联分析方法对环境质量和能源消费之间的关系进行研究,结果表明煤炭、原油、汽油、煤油和燃料油对环境的污染比电力和柴油大,可以通过优化能源消费结构来改善我国的环境质量。     

中国石油战略问题思考和对策分析

目前,中国油气储量、产量有明显的上升,但天然气勘探开发明显滞后于世界其它国家,油气资源消耗中存在五个方面的问题。根据未来油气资源的需求,我国应调整石油消费结构,提高油气资源利用效益;不断提高天然气在我国能源利用的比例;开辟新的油气探区,保障中国海洋石油资源的权益;加强国外油气勘探开发,开展国际石油贸易;加强能源勘探开发、利用相关的立法,建立完善的石油战略储备制度;加强油气新能源的勘探开发和综合利用技术研究,增加油气来源的多元化。     

Methods to Manage Information Sources for Software Product Managers in the Energy Market

The German energy market is facing several challenges due to changes in regulation, technical advancements as well as increasing energy costs and climate achievements like CO₂ reduction. This results in changing requirements for companies in the energy market and thus business information systems, which support their core tasks and processes. Software product managers in energy and software developing companies in charge of driving the functional development of information systems have to deal with these challenges and need to develop new information systems or enhance existing ones. Conceptual models proved helpful to design and implement information systems within several industries. However, identification and management of models as well as impact analysis of model changes results difficult. This contribution describes methods to construct, use and maintain a domain specific reference model catalogue to support requirements analysis for software product manager in the German electricity and gas market.     

Insurers Encouraged to Invest in Banks

Domestic insurance firms should speed up their strategic cooperation with local banks to help the reform of China＇s financial sector, the country＇s insurance regulator said on Dec.21.     

高油价困局

传统矿物能源的不可再生性,决定了过度依靠单一类型的自然能源所面临的系统性风险是无法回避的。＂世界经济血液＂的称号体现出石油在世界经济中的价值与地位,而华尔街的一句名言＂千万不要试图预测油价＂,又令其充满了神秘色彩。     

日本的氢能发展战略及启示

氢能源由于具有储量大、效率高、没有温室气体排放、便于贮存和运输且安全性高等优势,被认为是未来能源替代的终极解决方案。受限于自身的能源禀赋,日本十分重视氢能的发展,在氢能的生产、燃料电池汽车、家庭热电联供、氢能发电及氢能社区领域的示范试验都取得了重大的进展,并首次提出了“氢能社会”的概念。本文通过对日本氢能发展现状及成功经验的分析,提出了中国促进氢能产业健康发展的对策措施。     

CO2 emissions embodied in China’s export

ABSTRACT

The reduction of CO₂ emissions embodied in export will have an important role for China to achieve its CO₂ emissions peaking target. In this study, we use input–output analysis to examine the embodied CO₂ emissions in China’s export to its top largest trading countries from 2008 to 2015. We find that China’s exported CO₂ emissions peaked in 2008. More than 70% of embodied CO₂ emission were exported to only 20 countries, and CO₂ emissions exported to developing countries have been increasing. High-energy consumption sectors contribute to CO₂ emissions embodied in export significantly, such as Electricity, Gas and Water. We conclude that structural adjustment could be considered alongside technological improvements to curb China’s growing CO₂ emissions.     

In search of spatial interdependence of US outbound FDI in the MENA region

The paper investigates the spatial interdependence of US MNE investments in the MENA region. Given the variations in resource endowments, governance structures and degree of infrastructure availability in MENA countries, one would expect these variables to affect an MNE 's choice of FDI location. We do find that domestic non‐spatial factors such as own country inflation and governance measured by bureaucratic quality as well as infrastructure affect a host country's inward FDI . We also found that only one measure of natural resource endowment; that is, oil and gas exports were instrumental in attracting FDI . This non‐spatial result is generally robust and invariant to the two methodologies employed in this study, that is the spatially autoregressive (SAR ) model and the spatial Durbin model (SDM ). We found that neighbouring countries’ infrastructure availability measured either by “electricity used” or “energy used” affected FDI inflows in a host country. However, this spatial impact was found only in the SDM model. The spatial effects of neighbouring countries’ economic and political conditions and resource endowments were, however, not observed on a host country's inward FDI . The insignificance of both the surrounding market potential and the spatially weighted FDI suggests a purely horizontal motive of MNE investments in the MENA region.     

Stochastic multifactor models in risk management of energy futures

We adopt Schwartz and Smith's model to calculate risk measures of Brent oil and light sweet crude oil (WTI) futures contracts and Mirantes, Poblacion, and Serna's model to calculate risk measures of natural gas, gasoil, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, PJM Western Hub peak, and off-peak electricity futures contracts. The models generate well in-sample goodness of fit and satisfactory out-of-sample Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall forecasts for all the eight of the analyzed commodities. A simple and flexible estimation method improving upon existing estimation methods is developed.     

两次金融危机下我国能源国际贸易的比较分析

当1998年亚洲金融危机已经逐渐脱离人们关注之时,时隔10年,2007年美国次贷危机爆发,以迅雷不及掩耳之势蔓延到全球。2008年,此次金融危机在世界范围内愈演愈烈,波及数个领域。能源产业也未能逃过此劫。我国是一个能源消费大国,随着我国经济的快速发展,对石油、煤和天然气的需求也逐渐增加,同时能源的对外依存度也不断提高。当前金融危机对能源企业,尤其是石油行业的影响巨大,对其产量、价格和进出口贸易等都产生了深刻影响。石油作为国家的一种非常重要的战略储备,关系国计民生。因此,当前经济背景下,我国石油产业如何在"危"中寻找"机",积极开展新一轮的能源国际贸易,对于推进石油产业和整个能源产业的发展具有重要意义。本文通过将当前经济形势对我国能源的国际贸易带来的影响与10年前亚洲金融危机的背景进行对比,揭示本轮金融危机下我国能源国际贸易面临的挑战与机遇。     

Joint ventures in the P. R. China

China is showing interest in joint ventures in the oil, coal and nonferrous metals sector, in electricity generation, steel and building materials production, in the mechanical engineering, textile and electrical industries, in the transport sector and in the hotel trade. Our article gives an outline of the problems which the future joint ventures in China will encounter.     

上网电价波动对中国火电发电量的影响——基于协整检验和误差修正模型的实证分析

2003年以来,中国电煤价格快速上涨,"市场煤"与"计划电"的矛盾冲突日益激烈。火电企业普遍选择"停机限发",进而引发全国范围内的"电荒"频频出现。本文基于协整检验和误差修正模型,利用2003-2010年的季度数据,研究了上网电价、供电煤耗等因素对火电产业发电量的影响。结果表明,上网电价是影响火电发电量的最重要因素,季度上网电价每提高1%,火电季度发电量就提高13.42%;即季度上网电价提高1分/千瓦时,火电季度发电量就约提高2416亿千瓦时;代表技术进步的供电煤耗每降低1%,火电季度发电量就增加0.767%;主营业务成本每提高1%,火电季度发电量就降低0.53%;而总资产则对火电发电量具有微小的负向影响。对此本文提出了适当小幅快频上调上网电价、深入推行节能降耗等政策建议。     

电价对国民经济各部门的影响研究

基于全国社会核算矩阵（sAM）,利用乘数分析方法研究电价的变化对国民经济的影响,并将影响结果进行量化。结果表明,电价的调整对资本账户（即总投资）的影响最大;在当前重化工业时期,机械电气制造业和石油化工业等高耗能产业受电价调整的影响较大;从相关性来看煤炭采选业是与电力行业相关性最大的行业,可以看出我国在发电能源利用方面还是以煤炭为主;农业在收入流的循环作用下的拉动影响较大。     

Energy,carbon dioxide emissions,carbon taxes and the Chinese economy

Given the global characteristics of climate change and China's potential importance as a source of CO₂ emissions, advocates of controlling CO₂ emissions call for substantial efforts in China. However, the Chinese authorities have argued that China cannot be expected to make a significant contribution to the carbon emission problem unless it receives substantial international aid for this purpose. This contrasts sharply with the wishes of the proponents of controlling CO₂ emissions. This paper is devoted to explaining this difference in opinion by examining some aspects of the Chinese energy system and by analysing the economic implications of possible future CO₂ emissions limits in China.     

我国石油贸易中溢价问题的成因与对策

近年来愈演愈烈的石油贸易中的"亚洲溢价"问题严重损害了亚洲石油进口国的利益。随着我国石油需求的增加和进口量的增长,从中东进口原油量也逐年增加,"亚洲溢价"对我国的影响也越来越大。作为全球第二大石油消费国,我国应该充分重视这一问题,并结合自身石油贸易r具体情况找出症结所在,采取相应措施予以解决。     

China's Hydroelectric Power in Trouble

As a fast-rising country,the state of energy consumption in China is significantly different from that in the developed world,which has been using electricity of a relatively stable quantity for years.In China,however,the ever-hungry electricity demand requires at least 7%annual increase to meet the need of ballooning GDP According to the Annual Report on China's Energy Development(2009),up till the end of 2008 the total installed capacity of electricity has reached 790 million kW,including nearly 100 million kW newly developed in 2008 and a similar increment in 2007.