Affiliates and parent employment through foreign direct investment: a study case of substitutability or complementarity

How does outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect employment of multinationals in the home country? Does the impact of outward investment differ among manufacturing and service sectors? Using data on Italian MNEs, this paper examines the impact of Italian outward FDI on local employment between 1998 and 2006. In particular, we investigate the relationship existing between employment in the parent company and employment in foreign affiliates by distinguishing according to host-country location and sector of activity. The results suggest that the effects of Italian outward FDI on domestic employment differ according to the sector and the country of destination. In the manufacturing sector, a weak but significant relationship of labour substitutability is found for Italian MNEs producing low-technology products in foreign affiliates localized in high-wage countries. On the other hand, a significant North–south complementarity relationship in labour demands appears in the High and Medium-high- technology sectors. In the service sector, we find strong complementarity between employment in the parent firm and employment in foreign affiliates: in particular, this regards Italian MNEs producing knowledge-intensive services both in Western affiliates and CEEC locations. These results are robust when we control for endogeneity of output and parent wages.     

Employment by level of education and production factor substitutability

Summary Several types of elasticities of substitution and complementarity among three labour force aggregates (lower, intermediate, and higher educated) and capital are calculated, based on estimation of demand equations with cross-sectional data by industry groups over two years. Factor substitutability appears to be rather weak. Higher educated labour and capital are complements, as are lower and intermediate educated labour. Employment of unskilled labour is worsened by a reduction of the price of capital. Upgrading the educational level of labour requires the diminishing of the gap between wages of different labour force aggregates; especially the wages of higher educated labour have to decrease.This paper is based on part I.1 of The Elasticity of Substitution between Lower Educated Labour and Other Factors of Production. Research for this paper was supported by OSA (Organization for Labour Market Research). I wish to thank D.P. Broer for numerous and valuable suggestions, J.M.M. Ritzen for the original set-up of sections 2–4 in a preliminary draft and B. van Bunnik for skillful research assistance. I also benefited from comments and suggestions by P.C. Allaart, J.C. Siebrand, O.H. Swank, and a referee.     

Core Labour Standards and FDI: Friends or Foes? The Case of Child Labour

We test the often-cited hypothesis that high levels of child labour attract foreign investors. Using panel data we show the overall effect which child labour has on foreign direct investment (FDI) to be a (small) negative one. We find strong evidence for the theoretical prediction that child labour deters FDI by slowing down economic development. Weaker evidence is provided for our theoretical prediction that child labour can discourage FDI via its impact on the availability of a skilled labour force in an economy. The data do not indicate that high levels of child labour drive down the factor share of labour, thereby increasing the attractiveness of an economy for foreign investors. JEL no. C33, F23, J82     

How do firms combine different internationalisation modes? A multivariate probit approach

Most of the literature on the relationship between firm’s participation in international markets and firm heterogeneity focuses on export and foreign direct investment. This paper considers a wider range of forms of internationalisation that firms could combine into different patterns. With the purpose of analysing the selection of heterogeneous firms into different internationalisation patterns, we jointly model the decisions on the forms of internationalisation through a multivariate probit. This model allows us to avoid any a priori assumption about the firm’s behaviour. In this context we study the complementarity/substitutability relationships between forms of internationalisation. The results obtained show that: (i) neglecting some forms could lead to an incomplete representation about the firm’s internationalisation strategy, (ii) different firm’s characteristics influence the choice of internationalisation pattern, i.e. some types of firm are more prone to choosing one type of process over another, (iii) complementarity between forms of internationalisation seems to be preferred over substitution, but some heterogeneity also arises in this context.     

FDI promotion through bilateral investment treaties: more than a bit?

Policy makers in developing countries have increasingly pinned their hopes on bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in order to improve their chances in the worldwide competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the effectiveness of BITs in inducing higher FDI inflows is still open to debate. It is in several ways that we attempt to clarify the inconclusive empirical findings of earlier studies. We cover a much larger sample of host and source countries by drawing on an extensive data set on bilateral FDI flows. Furthermore, we account for unilateral FDI liberalization, in order not to overestimate the effect of BITs, as well as for the potential endogeneity of BITs. Employing a gravity-type model and various model specifications, including an instrumental variable approach, we find that BITs do promote FDI flows to developing countries. BITs may even substitute for weak domestic institutions, though probably not for unilateral capital account liberalization.     

Introducing intertemporal and open economy features in applied general equilibrium models

Summary This paper discusses the importance to tax policy analysis of intertemporal decisions and international capital flows and indicates how these elements can be incorporated in applied general equilibrium models. The paper emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between physical and financial capital as well as between the mobility and substitutability of financial capital. A specific model based on intertemporal optimizing behavior illustrates these issues. This intertemporal model allows for imperfect mobility of physical capital by considering adjustment costs in the investment process, and incorporates imperfect substitution of financial capital by integrating portfolio choice with utility maximization.This paper was prepared for the Symposium on Applied General Equilibrium Models for Open Economies, Noordwijk, The Netherlands, December 3–5, 1989. We are very grateful to Symposium participants for helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the International Monetary Fund.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Inflation

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are able to shift investments between home and host countries to minimize the negative effects of changes in the macroeconomic environment. This article formalizes a model that allows studying this investment‐smoothing behavior of MNEs facing inflation taxes in both the home and the host country. The MNE is allowed to invest in two economies, home and host, and to finance its foreign direct investment (FDI) either through domestic or foreign sources. The investment smoothing by the MNE is studied for cases of both vertical and horizontal FDI. The results suggest FDI is used as a hedging tool, mitigating the effects of inflation taxes even if there are no formal hedging mechanisms. The investment‐smoothing reaction of MNEs depends on the reason for investment, the financing sources of FDI, and the substitutability between factors of production. Finally, this investment‐smoothing possibility (FDI) reduces the real negative effects of inflation.     

Setting It Right: Employment Protection,Labour Reallocation and Productivity

This paper provides a critical review of the recent empirical evidence on the links between regulations affecting the hiring and firing of workers, labour reallocation and productivity growth. It also reviews how workers affected by labour mobility fare and discusses policy options to support them. The upshot is that stringent employment protection has a sizeable negative effect on labour market flows and, through this channel, hinders productivity growth. At the same time, the evidence also shows that while greater labour market reallocation benefits many workers through higher real wages and better careers, some displaced workers lose out via longer unemployment durations and/or lower real wages in post-displacement jobs. In this context, reforms of employment protection should be considered as part of a comprehensive package that also includes an adequate safety net for the unemployed and effective re-employment services.     

The determinants of bilateral FDI: Is Asia different?

Intra-Asian foreign direct investment (FDI) is dominated by flows from high technology economies to medium technology economies, while FDI elsewhere primarily consists of flows among high technology economies. This distinctive pattern is not due simply to differences in the relative distribution of Asian FDI recipients by technology, or to systematic differences in Asia's technology characteristics. A gravity model analysis is used to explore whether Asian FDI patterns differ significantly from those elsewhere, and if so, in what ways. The results show that Asian FDI flows, in contrast to other FDI flows, systematically favor hosts with relatively low technology achievement and relatively strong intellectual property rights regimes. This type of “Asian exceptionalism” is consistent with “flying geese” theories that have argued that Asian development is the result of technology flows among economies that occupy nearby rungs of the technology ladder.     

Understanding bilateral FDI flows in developing Asia

Unlike trade flows, there has been little to no detailed examination of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between Asian economies. This paper uses bilateral FDI flows data to investigate trends in intra-Asian FDI flows over the period 1990–2005. It employs an augmented gravity model to identify the main determinants of intra-Asian FDI flows. Possible drivers of FDI flows, including transactional and informational distance (proxied by distance), real sector variables, financial variables and quality of institutions are examined.     

Privatization, Incentive Delegation and Foreign Direct Investment

Despite the empirical relevance, the privatization literature paid little attention to the effects of the owner-manager relationship and the implications of foreign direct investment (FDI). We focus on these aspects, and show the relationship between privatization and greenfield FDI when the owners design strategic managerial incentive contracts. We show that there is complementarity between privatization and greenfield FDI. Whether incentive delegation (compared to no incentive delegation) increases the degree of privatization in the presence of FDI is ambiguous; it depends on whether the degree of privatization that attracts FDI is higher or lower than the degree of privatization that maximizes domestic welfare under FDI.     

The effects of European integration and the business cycle on migration flows: a gravity analysis

This paper explores how European integration, economic fluctuations, and the interactions of these factors affect bilateral migration flows. It focuses on how migration flows developed in the wake of the establishment of the European Monetary Union, and whether migration flows became stronger, and more responsive to economic fluctuations, in the euro area. It estimates a gravity equation of bilateral gross migration flows on a global sample and on a sample restricted to the first 12 members of the euro area. It is found that unemployment is a strong and robust determinant of bilateral migration flows both globally and in the euro area. EU accession and the lifting of labour market restrictions on new member states had a large effect on gross migration flows. While mutual euro area membership is not associated with an overall rise in migration, it is associated with increased flows from countries where unemployment is high to those where it is lower. Migration flows among the euro-area 12 have been on an increasing trend since the late 1990s; after falls in 2009 they picked up again in 2010 and 2011. The evidence overall suggests that labour mobility plays an increasing role in the adjustment to asymmetric shocks in the EU and the euro area.     

Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China,Japan, and the United States

China has received enormous inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, including significant flows from Japan and the US. We examine these investment flows in detail to gain perspectives on their relative importance for the three countries involved. We also analyze the industrial composition of FDI flows over time. American FDI flows to China have been less concentrated in manufacturing than average for investors in China while Japan's FDI flows have been much more concentrated in manufacturing, particularly in transport, electrical and machinery industries in recent years. Using survey data from American and Japanese affiliates, we compare the employment patterns and sales destinations of American and Japanese affiliates in China. We find a much higher degree of export-orientation for Japanese affiliates than American affiliates, with the latter tending to make the vast majority of their sales in the Chinese market. Over time, however, we find a tendency towards convergence in the sales destinations of Japanese and American affiliates.     

Optimal Exit Costs of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines the optimal policy on exit costs of foreign direct investment for a host country considering the impact of varying income level and host country’s risk aversion against volatile FDI flows. Based on a dynamic model about the impact of the exit costs on FDI inflows and capital formation, we demonstrate that a host country should determine the exit cost considering two counterbalancing factors, that is, facilitating higher FDI inflows and reducing volatility of FDI inflows. When a host country is less vulnerable to volatility with inelastic risk aversion against FDI volatility, it is optimal for the host country with a negative income shock to take a more aggressive approach to induce FDI inflows by lowering exit costs. However, if the host country is more vulnerable to volatility with elastic risk aversion, the host country is advised to take a conservative approach by increasing exit costs to reduce FDI volatility. These findings, supported by the OECD data on 42 countries’ exits costs, implicate that developing countries are recommended to lower exit costs to induce higher FDI inflows when they are not highly vulnerable to volatility shocks.     

Workers' Remittances,Capital Inflows,and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations.     

Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea

This paper examines the short‐run and long‐run dynamic relationships between exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea. Monthly data retrieved from the Bank of Korea from January 1999 to March 2012 are examined. A cointegration test, a vector error correction model, the Wald test and impulse responses techniques are applied to analyze the data. The present study finds that, first, long‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which implies that a change in exchange rates negatively affects FDI flows in the long run. Second, short‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which confirms that there is reciprocal feedback between the two variables. Finally, the study finds evidence of a structural break from the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 shock to FDI flows in Korea. An external shock affects changes in the endogenous variables and, thus, causes instability in the cointegrating vector in the system.     

Mode of Entry and the Regional Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China

In this paper we re-examine the regional determinants of FDI in China using both total FDI flows, and FDI flows disaggregated by entry mode. Building on both the FDI location and entry mode choice literatures, we argue for the existence of mode-specific location advantages, and test for their existence. We first specify and estimate a location model of aggregate FDI flows to Chinese regions. Using the aggregate model as a benchmark, we then estimate separate equations for each of three different entry modes (wholly-owned subsidiaries, equity joint ventures and cooperative joint ventures), and compare the results with the aggregate model. The results indicate that mode-specific location advantages do exist, at least within China, but they are limited to a small number of factors. In particular, we identify the accumulated stock of FDI as being more likely to attract high control modes of entry, while existing policies to attract FDI are more likely to attract lower control modes of entry.     

FDI Flows between China and ASEAN： Emerging Factors and Prospect

I. Introduction Foreign direct investment (FDI) from ASEAN into China is now approximately fifty times as much as it was in 1990 (Table 1). China’s national statistics show that ASEAN FDI in China is comparable to that from the top five FDI outflow countries: the USA, Japan, the UK, France and Germany. The cumulative amount of China’s actually utilized FDI from ASEAN during 1994–2004 reached US$33.73 bn, which exceeded the cumulative amount of China’s actually utilized FD…     

The Effect of Inflation Targeting on Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries

Due to the many benefits that come with foreign direct investment (FDI), such as greater economic growth and technology spillovers, developing countries strive to attract this type of investment. Although the amount of FDI in developing countries has increased greatly over the past several years, not all developing countries have been successful at attracting it. A credible monetary policy, such as inflation targeting (IT), might make countries that implement it more attractive destinations for FDI flows due to the reliable macroeconomic environment created. This paper estimates the effect of IT on FDI flows to developing countries using a difference-in-differences approach and panel data for 71 countries for the period 1985 to 2013. This paper also looks at the difference between targeting and non-targeting countries in terms of FDI inflows during times of high instability. The results indicate that the adoption of IT leads to increased FDI flows to developing countries overall and, most importantly, during times of distress.

     

FDI facilitated by agglomeration economies: evidence from manufacturing and services joint ventures in China

The open door policy of China’s economic reform since the 1980s has attracted heavy foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into China and especially to Guangdong (particularly the Pearl River Delta region, PRD) and induced significant economic growth during the past two decades. While there exist various classical theories of FDI in attempting to identify the determinants of FDI inflow and to explain the behavior of FDI flows, limited attention has been given from the perspective of agglomeration effects generated by a core-periphery (CP) relation.This paper intends to study the impacts of agglomerations on FDI inflows in the context of Krugman’s CP relation (1991) by investigating (1) the formation of a CP relation via gravity model analysis; (2) whether different types of industry FDI flows will respond differently in the CP-system, given agglomeration effects; and (3) whether FDI origin and firm scale matter in affecting FDI flows.A database consisting of a population frame of 37,742 firm-level manufacturing and services joint ventures investing in Guangdong in 1998 was used. Empirical results show that the agglomerations of the CP relation have affected FDI flow patterns. While both manufacturing and services FDI and sources of investment responded differently to the impacts, smaller firms were found more responsive to the CP-agglomeration settings regardless of FDI by industry type and by source. The significance and implications of the CP-system to further facilitate FDI in the region are discussed.