基于谱分析的城市住宅价格周期关系研究——以武汉市为例

以武汉市8个城区住宅增量与存量价格的季度数据,运用谱分析探索了增量与存量住宅价格的周期及其领先-滞后关系。研究结果显示,以增量交易为主导的住宅市场结构中,增量住宅价格周期普遍短于存量住宅价格周期,增量住宅价格波动比存量住宅频繁,增量住宅价格较存量住宅处于领先或同步的关系。因此,政府应在严控房地产投机行为的同时,通过调整结构、增加增量住宅供应、完善存量住宅市场等途径强化市场调控。     

预期对住宅价格波动的影响机理

预期在房价变化中具有不可忽视的作用,基于存量与流量理论建立的预期对房价影响的定量分析模型研究表明,房地产市场中的非理性预期是引起近几年住宅价格持续上涨的主要原因之一.政府必须进一步利用金融政策和其他政策影响投资者、投机者对住宅市场的预期,引导住宅市场迈向正常的发展轨道.     

住宅房地产市场健康标准与厦门市实证研究

围绕"健康的住宅房地产市场"的定义,从价格、存量、增量和均衡状态四个方面,构建了一套判断住宅房地产市场健康程度的指标体系,并以厦门市住宅房地产市场为例,对其健康标准指标模型的参数进行了测度,实证结果表明2007—2009年厦门市住宅房地产市场的发展存在问题,最后,提出了相应的对策。综合运用了相关数学方法,和定性与定量分析相结合的方法。     

货币政策、银行贷款与住宅价格——对中国4个直辖市的实证研究

本文利用中国4个直辖市房地产价格数据和宏观经济数据，运用单整与协整检验方法及误差修正模型，对住宅价格与货币政策之间的互动关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明各城市住宅价格水平与投资额、销售额和滞后一期的价格存在协整关系。由于投资额和销售额中的大部分是银行贷款，这说明住宅价格上涨与宽松的货币政策有紧密的联系。通过构建误差修正模型，发现误差修正系数非常高，住宅价格极大地偏离长期均衡值，市场出现了非理性繁荣，必须引起政府和产业部门的足够重视。     

住宅价格长期稳定上涨的理论界限

在“住宅零空关”假设下,住宅的理论租金和理论价格均由宏观经济发展水平和住宅存量共同决定。合理的住宅租金上涨率等于国民收入增长率减住宅存量增长率。合理的住宅价格增长率则等于市场贴现率减去该时点住宅理论租金与住宅理论价格之比率,超过这个界限的住宅价格上涨均被看作含有泡沫成分。     

北京市新建商品房供给弹性研究——基于存量—流量模型的分析

新建商品房供给价格弹性反映了商品房新增供给量对于价格变化而调整的速度和程度。如果商品房供给缺乏弹性,则房价更多受到需求变化的影响。本文对存量-流量模型进行拓展,以北京市2000年一季度至2011年二季度的数据为样本,采用不同代理变量表征新建商品房供给量测算流量与存量供给的短期和长期供给弹性,结论显示:商品房流量供给短期内无弹性;商品房存量供给缺乏弹性。     

读地产新闻 品市场百态

国家统计局:绝大多数三线城市同比仍在下降数据显示,1月份,全国70个大中城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅价格环比均继续上涨,且涨幅比上月明显扩大。一线城市上涨尤其明显。无论是新建商品住宅还是二手住宅,一线城市同比平均涨幅都高于20%,远高于二线城市1%左右的同比平均涨幅,与此同时,绝大多数三线城市同比仍在下降。教育部要求多校划片你的学区房可能白买了教育部办公厅近日下发了《关于做好2016年城市义务教育招生入学工作的通知》,明确提出在教育资源配置不均衡、择校冲动强烈的地方,根据实际情况积极稳妥采取多校划     

基于Hedonic模型的南京住宅价格实证分析

本文分析了特征价格模型的理论基础——Lancaster的消费者偏好理论和美国经济学家Rosen的产品特征市场供需均衡模型,选择了9个住宅特征作为模型的自变量,构建了多元线性函数形式的住宅特征价格模型。并采用南京市500套多层住宅样本数据对模型进行了检验,结论表明模型可用来分析和解释住宅特征对住宅价格的影响,且9个住宅特征对住宅价格影响程度各异,同时根据特征价格将住宅特征的影响程度进行了分类和排序。     

新型城镇化对桂林市住宅价格影响的实证分析

文章通过建立一套合理的新型城镇化综合评价指标体系,运用多元线性回归模型对新型城镇化与桂林市住宅价格之间的关系进行分析。得出城镇居民人均可支配收入是影响桂林市住宅价格最大的因素,其与桂林市住宅价格正相关,并以此为促进新型城镇化与桂林市住宅市场协调发展提出相关建议。     

上证50指数与衍生品市场价格的发现能力

目前,上证50是我国唯一同时拥有期货、ETF、期权等衍生品的指数。本文采用Granger因果检验和协整检验,分析上证50指数、上证50股指期货、上证50ETF、上证50ETF期权价格序列之间的引导关系和长期均衡状况,并运用广义脉冲响应函数分析各个市场的冲击响应速度和强度;通过滞后项的显著性分析4个市场价格序列的领先滞后关系,采用四维IS模型测度各个市场的价格发现信息份额。结果发现:4个市场间的价格相互引导且存在长期均衡,期货市场在价格领先滞后关系中引领其他市场5分钟以上;期货市场的信息份额为47. 76%,指数市场的信息份额为23. 05%,ETF市场的信息份额为15. 37%,期权市场的信息份额为13. 82%。上述研究结果表明期权、期货和ETF的市场功能在市场价格发现过程中起到重要作用,期货在同标的衍生品市场中的价格发现能力最强,在价格发现过程中起主导作用;上证50ETF期权在价格领先滞后关系中落后于其他同标的市场,且在价格发现中所占的信息份额最小,虽然具有一定的价格发现功能,但在价格发现过程中没有起到主导作用;作为追踪上证50指数的基金,ETF在价格领先滞后关系中落后于指数,且在价格发现中所占的信息份额也小于指数。因此,衍生品市场的活跃有利于提升其市场价格的发现能力。     

Sustainability, Epistemology, Ecocentric Business, and Marketing Strategy: Ideology, Reality, and Vision

This conceptual article examines the relationship between marketing and sustainability through the dual lenses of anthropocentric and ecocentric epistemology. Using the current anthropocentric epistemology and its associated dominant social paradigm, corporate ecological sustainability in commercial practice and business school research and teaching is difficult to achieve. However, adopting an ecocentric epistemology enables the development of an alternative business and marketing approach that places equal importance on nature, the planet, and ecological sustainability as the source of human and other species’ well-being, as well as the source of all products and services. This article examines ecocentric, transformational business, and marketing strategies epistemologically, conceptually and practically and thereby proposes six ecocentric, transformational, strategic marketing universal premises as part of a vision of and solution to current global un-sustainability. Finally, this article outlines several opportunities for management practice and further research.     

Rethinking managership,leadership, followership,and partnership

Organizations underperform, or fail, when members avoid partnering with managers—whether through subtle resistance, disagreement, protest, or walkout—to achieve common purpose. Managers should boost partnering not by affecting a pretense of leadership but through a nuanced balance of managerial authority and understanding of members’ points of view. The objective of this article is to sharpen attention on the concept of partnership with organization members and how it relates to some of the important previous literature. We also argue that some of the previous scholarly work contributes to misconceptions related to these concepts. Our work is forward-looking in that it is motivated by the dangerous societal and cultural differences evident in the world, differences that surround management’s decisions and that may induce an overuse of authority to quash disquiet. Using our experiences in both industry and academia, we argue that the crucial link between managers and members is leadership—not leadership thought of as directional and inspirational, but leadership as building a relationship toward common purpose through partnership. “Lead” and “leader” are sorely misused terms, and worse, substituting “leader” for “manager” is just plain wrong. We believe that managers become leaders only when followers agree to follow, not when the managers simply step forward energetically with direction. Managers are cheated by mistaken definitions. Reviewing past perspectives about what makes good leaders and managers, we rethink ways to enhance organizational harmony through a clearer understanding of managership, leadership, followership, and partnership. Only by thinking and acting as partners in common purpose can managers and members form the core of success in organizational endeavors.     

Trust,terrorism, and technology

The development of civilization implies an evolution of complex trust mechanisms which integrate the social system and form bonds which allow individuals to interact, even if they are strangers. Key elements of trust are predictability of consequences and an evaluation of consequences in terms of self-interest or values. Values, ethics, and norms enhance predictability. The terrorist introduces an unpredictable event which has negative consequences, thus destroying trust. However, terrorist-like situations occur in day-to-day activities. Technology itself makes the world more interdependent and less predictable. Furthermore, technological accidents and disasters, which are also unpredictable and negative, may prompt individuals to perceive technology as if it were a terrorist. Louis H. Bluhm is Associate Professor of Sociology at the Mississippi State University. He has written several articles which have been published in Rural Sociology, and with P. M. Shingi he has written a chapter in a book.     

Networks,firms, and trade

Fixed costs associated with learning about demand and setting up distribution networks are expected to be lower when there are more potential contacts in the destination market, suggesting a greater probability of market entry and larger export revenues. We match historically-determined emigration stocks with detailed firm-level data from Portugal to examine the effect of migrant networks on these export outcomes. We find that larger stocks of emigrants in a given destination increase export participation and intensity. In addition, we show that the former of these effects tends to be more pronounced among firms that are more likely to have close ties with the emigrants. These results are consistent with a multiple-destination version of the Melitz (2003) model featuring market-specific entry costs and idiosyncratic firm-destination demand shocks.