The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

Tax Reporting Behavior Under Audit Certainty

This study uses a confidential data set of firms assigned to the Internal Revenue Service's Coordinated Industry Case (CIC) program to examine the effect of audit certainty on firms' tax reporting behavior. We first model the determinants of assignment to the program. Although the ability and incentive to avoid taxes are related to CIC assignment, we find that the IRS assigns firms primarily based on size and complexity. We then test whether audit certainty has a detectable effect on tax payments. Our results show that tax payments do not change when firms enter the CIC program, suggesting the CIC program does not have higher deterrence or enforcement effects relative to the IRS's standard selection and audit process for large corporations not included in the CIC program. However, supplemental analysis suggests that audit certainty does alter managers' expectations regarding future tax payments. Our paper provides new empirical evidence on the strategic game between the taxpayer and the tax authority and has important implications for tax authorities as they consider the costs and benefits of certain audit programs.     

Mobile payment and Chinese rural household consumption

The problem of high savings and low consumption of Chinese rural households has long been a source of concern. The popularity of mobile payments may help alleviate this problem. This paper examines the impact of mobile payments on household consumption in rural China by using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). To overcome the potential endogeneity, we use the instrumental variable (IV) and difference-in-differences (DID) methods and find a significant positive effect of mobile payments on rural household consumption. Mechanism analysis indicates that the positive impact of mobile payments is partially explained by the reduction in transaction costs, the easing of liquidity constraints, and the decrease in mental accounting loss. Furthermore, we verify the inclusive function of mobile payments through heterogeneity analysis and find that they play a greater role in promoting rural household consumption, especially for socially vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, people on low incomes, and low education. Our findings contribute to the literature on consumer finance and inclusive finance and have important implications for other countries.     

Farm Value and Retirement of Farm Owners in Early-Twentieth-Century America

This study explores the effect of farm value on retirement decisions of farm owners in the early twentieth century. The average farm value per acre of county, as of either 1900 or 1910, and the growth rate over the decade had a strong positive effect on the probability of retirement of farm owners in 1910. Farm owners were more responsive to a change in farm value if it was not produced by a shift in the farmland productivity, which raised the opportunity cost of retirement. I argue that the rapid growth in the value of farm properties between 1900 and 1910 was a major force behind the decline in the labor force participation rate of males ages 65 and over during the same period.     

On the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments

The effects of inflation are considered for a small open economy with overlapping generations and a cash-in-advance constraint on consumption. In an endowment economy with one good, the model recovers the adjustment mechanism underlying the monetary approach to the balance of payments, which incorporated the real balance effect in the savings function. Nevertheless, if the model has two goods that require different degrees of cash, the factor intensities of the goods also play a crucial role in determining the response of savings. In that case, the predictions of the monetary approach may be overturned; a result that is supported numerically.     

Why Do Banks Fail? Evidence from the 1920s

This paper examines the causes of rural bank failures during the 1920s using a newly created state-level data series. By focusing on rural banks we are able to investigate the impacts of agricultural distress and government policies on the class of banks accounting for 80% of the failures in the decade. Failure rates were highest where farm acreage and land values had increased the most before 1920 because these regions suffered the worst agricultural distress subsequently. Agricultural distress caused more bank failures in states with deposit insurance systems, suggesting that insurance encouraged banks to increase risk as their net worth declined.     

Land productivity,farm size and returns to scale in Pakistan agriculture

It is by now a commonly accepted proposition that economic development must involve both growth and equity. That in many countries the subsidization of the owners of large farms is inequitable is also acknowledged. However, the debate on the ‘efficiency’ of large versus small farms continues. If the owners of large farms are not using the crop acreage with greater efficiency than are the small farmers and if there are no economies of scale, then the imposition of ceilings on farm size and land redistribution are clearly the right options to consider.The object of this study is to test two hypotheses. First, there is an inverse relationship between land productivity and farm size. Second, there are no economies of scale in agricultural production. The tests are performed by regression analysis on the farm-level data collected from Pakistan by the author in 1974. The merit of this study is that it deals with a country which, with a few other underdeveloped countries, has been a beneficiary of the ‘Green Revolution’. The available studies on Pakistan agriculture are limited to the aggregate analyses. Interregional micro-level studies are almost non-existent.     

广东省财政转移支付的均等化效应分析

通过财政转移支付,会影响各地区财政能力的均等化水平,进而影响地区公共服务均等化的实现程度。本文通过对广东省转移支付现状的分析和对地区间转移支付均等化效应的检验,初步分析了广东省各地区间转移支付的均等化效应。研究表明,财政转移支付对各地区间的财政能力差异具有一定均等化效应。同时,从分项转移支付效果来看,财力性转移支付的财力均等化效应最强,专项转移支付次之,税收返还效应最差。     

Incomplete property rights, exposure to markets and the provision of environmental services in China

This paper uses data from a 2003 rural survey to examine the determinants of household provision of environmental services under China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), the largest payments for environmental services program in the developing world. The paper examines the determinants of plot-level survival rates of program-planted trees and grasses. It finds that household rights over retired land as well as autonomy in program decision-making (which we argue on the basis of supportive evidence are plausibly exogenous to post-retirement outcomes) have important and potentially countervailing impacts on the provision of environmental services targeted by the program. Households permitted to select what to plant obtain better program outcomes, but do not make the choices that the government would like them to, while those permitted to decide what land to retire perform worse. The analysis also finds that households more vested and experienced in agriculture and with less exposure to off-farm labor markets fare better in managing their planted trees. Significant learning-by-doing effects are also evident, suggesting that greater technical support to farmers could improve outcomes and lower program costs.     

美国政府直接支付对农业投入的影响分析

利用美国的统计数据分析政府直接支付对农业购买性投入、资本消费和雇工补偿的影响,分析得出的主要结论是,前期生产者/价格支持直接支付对购买性投入和雇工补偿的影响为正,表明政府直接支付能在一定程度上弥补农业短期生产费用、减弱农民风险厌恶程度;前期保护直接支付对当期资本消费产生正的影响,表明在某种程度上保护直接支付通过项目收益资本化能增加农业资本消费。     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

延长退休年龄能提高社会养老保险基金的支付能力吗?

本文通过构建我国社会养老保险基金支付能力的精算模型,研究了延长退休年龄后,基金支付能力的变化情况。结果表明,延长退休年龄不一定能够增加养老保险基金的支付能力,因为延长退休年龄后,虽然缴费期限延长了,缴费收入增加了,但养老保险基金支出也增加了,最终结果就是不确定的,要受到很多因素的影响,包括利率、社会平均工资增长率、在职职工工资增长率、养老金增长率和死亡率分布等等。如果要通过延长退休年龄来提高养老保险基金的支付能力,应全面分析各种相关因素的共同作用,否则适得其反。     

Do Chinese farmers reinvest in grain production?

Grain production is affected by the relocation of farm household labour from on-farm to off-farm activities and by an increase in the investment in grain production as a result of increase in farm household income that occurs along with such a labour shift. This study uses a recent farm household survey data to examine whether Chinese grain households do reinvest in grain production. It has found that household income growth contributes to higher investment in grain production although a higher share of non-agricultural income has a negative effect. The authors' other research has found a negligible direct impact of farm to non-farm labour transfer on grain production. We may conclude that in the near future, the total impact (direct and indirect) of labour transfer from farm to non-farm production on grain output is expected to be positive. In the long run, in may become negative when more and more labour shifts out of grain production and marginal product of labour becomes positive.     

Does IMF conditionality benefit lenders?

Conclusions The purpose of this paper has been to assess whether official and private lenders benefit from IMF participation in rescheduling sovereign LDC debt via the Paris Club. If IMF participation increases the expected value of any existing or newly rescheduled official or private debt contracts, then lenders benefit. The transmission process can be via the immediate liquidity the IMF provides through various loan facilities, which allows for debt service payments to be met in a timely fashion, and/or through the increased ability of the sovereign to meet future debt service payments due to the conditions attached to IMF liquidity. The results from this paper suggest that the provision of immediate IMF liquidity provides a benefit to lenders but that the attached conditions do not. These results were obtained for a large sample of 84 LDCs over the sample period 1978-1987 and may differ when specific cases are considered. IMF participation reduced the average spread over LIBOR by 155 to 179 basis points, based on a simple model relating interest spreads to default probabilities. Heavily indebted sovereign borrowers may have experienced larger reductions. The design and implementation of IMF conditions has been criticized in the literature because they confer little benefit on the sovereign borrower. Our results support the consensus view that the conditions themselves have little effect. However, our contribution results from seeing the issue from the perspective of rational lenders who expend resources to evaluate IMF conditionality programs.     

Does pleasing export-oriented foreign investors help your balance of payments? A general equilibrium analysis

Many developing countries have adopted investor-friendly policiesin order to attract export-oriented foreign direct investment(FDI). The effects of these policies on the external accountshave largely been ignored. We endogenize FDI inflows in a structuralistgeneral equilibrium framework to contribute towards fillingthis gap. Our economy consists of: (i) a non-tradable goodssector and (ii) an export processing zone (EPZ) that hosts transnationalcorporations. We find that most of the commonly pursued policiesconsidered are likely to have a negative impact on the balanceof payments due to: (i) income re-distribution towards groupsmore likely to spend on imported goods, (ii) higher capacityutilization in the (more import-intensive) EPZ, and (iii) theexcess supply of non-tradables created, which in turn has anadverse valuation effect via a real internal depreciation. Strongbackward linkages, however, may under certain conditions helpoffset the adverse impact through a favorable valuation effect.     

A portfolio analysis of crop diversification and risk in the cotton south

Scholars have long been aware of the influence of risk on the behavior of farmers.¹ Recently, several econometric historians have studied the influence of risk on the behavior of farmers in the postbellum South (Reid, 1973; Higgs, 1973 and Higgs, 1974; Wright and Kunreuther, 1975 and Wright and Kunreuther, 1977; McGuire and Higgs, 1977). The most recent contributions to this literature analyze the choice between cotton acreage and corn acreage ( Wright and Kunreuther, 1975 and Wright and Kunreuther, 1977; McGuire and Higgs, 1977). Several controversies discussed in those articles have not been resolved. Those controversies concern, for example, whether cotton or corn was the riskier crop in the late 1800s, whether postbellum Southern farmers displayed risk-averting or risk-taking behavior, and whether data and methods employed to analyze acreage management decisions are appropriate. Those controversies are the central concerns of this paper.     

Off-farm employment and agricultural specialization in China

While it is well known that China's off farm labor market is emerging rapidly, less is known about the effect of movement off the farm on the farming practices of those that have continued to farm. The overall goal of this paper is to analyze the effects of changes in China's off farm employment on one aspect of the performance of China's agricultural sector: the emergence of specialization in farming. To achieve this goal, we have three specific objectives. First, we document the changes in the flow of labor out of China's villages. Second, we examine how specialization in farming has changed over time. Third, we examine the association between off farm labor flows and specialization. Using panel data from a national representative data collected by the authors between 1999 and 2008, the analysis finds that off farm employment is indeed rising rapidly. At the same time, specialization is occurring off and on the farm. There is a strong and robust correlation between off farm employment and on farm specialization. The results imply that China's agriculture has responded dynamically to the modernization happening elsewhere in the economy.     

Balance-of-payments policy. Instruments and criteria

Summary In this article the author makes clear that in principle targets of economic policy can serve as criteria for balance of payments policy. The instruments of balance of payments policy are discussed in the light of their practical implications. Exchange rate policy is treated as a means of incomes policy. The author argues that only equilibrium of the balance of payments can be considered as a long term criterium for balance of payments policy in the case of stable exchange rates. In the case of flexible exchange rates the criterium can be found in the degree of domestic economic stability.