Transaction Costs,Option Prices,and Model Risk in Fair Value Accounting

This paper examines the reliability of option fair value estimates in the presence of transaction costs. The Black Scholes Merton (BSM) framework assumes zero transaction costs and thus might not provide a reasonable approximation in this context. We investigate the model adjustments companies make to their BSM models to deal with these transaction costs. We specifically examine Employee Stock Option (ESO) plans listed on the French stock exchange, as detailed disclosure on modeling is available for these ESOs. Our analysis questions the reliability of these model adjustments, especially their bias and the extent to which they provide a faithful representation of option fair values. Holding parameter values constant, we find that the model adjustments lead to a median understatement of 52% compared to the BSM model price, higher than the discount we observe for the opportunistic determination of model parameters (below 20%). The paper contributes to the fair value literature by highlighting model risk in the fair valuation of options. This model risk stems from assumptions made about the size of transaction costs and complements the notion of parameter risk analyzed in previous literature. As a result, the model itself might be a possible channel for fair value management.     

An Experiment in Fair Value Accounting: UK Investment Vehicles

Abstract

We use the British real estate and investment fund industries as experimental settings where historic cost (HC) and fair value accounting (FVA) can be compared. Both industries have the majority of their assets marked to market and hence the difference between the two accounting systems is profound. However, as the valuation of real estate is arguably more subjective than that of investment funds, we are able to contrast fair value accounting in a near ideal setting with one where it remains important, but where valuation difficulties may permit bias. As this distinction is incorporated in the recently issued SFAS 157, which also formed the basis of the IASB's relevant discussion document, the results of our study may be particularly timely. As expected, we find that fair value income is considerably more value relevant than historic cost income. However, in the presence of changes in FVA balance sheet values, income measures become largely irrelevant. This implies that there is no obvious advantage from adopting FVA income accounting if FVA balance sheet values are available to the user. Furthermore, FVA for our real estate sample is considerably less value relevant than for the investment companies and the evidence for this sample, if not conclusive, is consistent with earnings management. We interpret these results as confirming that fair values are highly relevant and largely unbiased where the values are unambiguous. Where valuation is ambiguous, which will normally be the case, value relevance will be lower and biased accounting may be revealed.     

人力资源管理中的功能价值评价思想及应用

本文提出了将价值工程学科中的功能价值评价思想和方法应用于组织的人员、岗位等对象进行评价的初步设想;论述了功能价值评价与工作评价、绩效考评等职能之间的区别和联系,指出对组织中对象进行功能价值评价的目的是明确需要调整和改进的具体对象、提高人力资源管理的效率;通过举例说明了应用功能系数法进行评价的一般步骤和程序,同时也对实践中应用这一评价方法时可能遇到的问题的解决及为进一步研究提出了若干建议和思路。     

Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover

This study analyzes the heterogeneous response of U.S. credit spread to global oil price shocks by building an extended structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), which can distinguish among the U.S. and non-US oil supply shocks, aggregated demand shocks and oil market-specific demand shocks behind the real oil prices. Meanwhile, a spillover index model developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) (hereafter D.Y. (2012)) is used to estimate the link between oil price shocks and the U.S. credit spread over time. The results show that (i) the credit spread does not respond to global oil supply shocks and non-US oil supply shocks, but has a negative reaction to the U.S. oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-market-specific demand shocks. (ii) There exists a close connectedness between oil price shocks and the U.S. credit spread, and the link fluctuates cyclically and relates to the economic cycle and the U.S. shale oil revolution. (iii) The spillover from different oil price shocks to the U.S. credit spread shows significant heterogeneity over time. Our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can better track the U.S. credit spread changes using oil price information.     

信用模型与信用机制研究

信用缺失是我国社会经济中的一个严重问题。通过对交易过程中的信用博弈分析,建立了信用模型。认为交易活动中的信用既与理性主体的期望价值(V)有关,又与理性主体对其他参与人的信任度(P)有关。运用信用模型对信用机制的两种作用方式进行了研究,指出抑制信用缺失要首先注重信用文化建设,在此基础上完善信用法治。     

The demand for retailer-financed instalment credit: An econometric analysis

During the mid- to late 1980s the UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer has attempted to reduce the volume of consumer credit extended by increasing interest rates rather than by re-introducing terms controls. This paper presents estimates of demand functions for new credit extended by retailers which was financed by them and repaid by instalments. Following earlier papers, a stock-adjustment model is presented that is extended to allow for credit rationing. The results suggest that the demand for such new credit extended is related negatively to terms control and positively to personal disposable income and expectations. Demand was not found to be related to (a proxy for) the nominal interest rate charged by retailers (although it was found to be positively related to the real rate). The former finding is consistent with questionnaire evidence that consumers are unaware of the interest rate that they pay for credit. Elasticities of demand are presented.     

改进的C2C电子商务信用评价模型及算法研究

C2C电子商务迅速发展的同时,信用问题逐渐成为阻碍其发展的主要问题之一。现有的C2C电子商务信用评价体系的建立,在一定程度上保证了网络交易的安全,促进了人们进行网上购物的意愿,但仍存在明显的不足。本文在分析现有评价模型的基础上,建立了改进后的C2C评价信用模型,并提出了考虑交易双方的历史信用度、交易金额等因素来综合计算被评用户的信用度。     

Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit

The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of the economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correction model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2–2008q4. The results establish a two way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households’ expectations about the future development of their own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side of the housing market, these effects are dampened.     

Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment

This paper reconstructs the Fama–French three-factor (F–F) model as a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) framework to investigate the differentiated effects of investor sentiment proxies-the volatility index (VIX), credit default swap (CDS), and TED spread-on the three risk premiums. Sample period spans from 2003: 1Q to 2013: 4Q. Sample objects are 58 semiconductor companies listed on Taiwan Security Exchange Corporation. The empirical results report that stock returns display a nonlinear path, and the three risk premiums are time-varying, depending on different proxies of investor sentiment in different regimes. Market premiums fall as investors in stock markets show extreme optimism or extreme pessimism. Except in rare situations, the size premium is significant and decreases with the increase in the VIX. Returns in holding growth stocks dominate holding value stocks when the investors show extreme pessimism or optimism. However, in normal sentiment of investment, value stocks earn more returns than growth stocks.     

公允价值会计危机:争论及思考

全球金融危机引发了对公允价值会计(FVA)的激烈争论。这对FVA能否顺利开展、能否将其扩展至其他领域形成了严峻挑战。本文主要突出四个问题:第一,大多数争论源自于对FVA引发问题的困扰;第二,尽管准则制定者对危机时期的市值计价问题给予了适当关注,但FVA适用问题仍不太明确;第三,历史成本会计(HCA)不大可能成为补救方法,HCA也存在许多问题,这些问题应该比FVA的问题大;第四,尽管很难责怪FVA准则本身,但是就它的实施而言,仍是一个潜在的问题。     

企业信用抉择经济模型探讨

良好的企业信用是企业自身的无形价值,在竞争日益激烈的今天,企业竞争不仅仅只是硬实力方面的较量,基于企业文化软实力的企业信用也十分关键。本文运用决策树原理,建立了企业信用抉择经济模型并探讨了影响因素。     

我国上市公司融资决策归因分析

在现有融资决策理论的基础上,利用现金流股价模型及实物期权方法,来量化上市公司融资决策中的确定性成本和不确定性因素,并对我国上市公司的融资决策进行归因分析。研究表明,融资成本不是企业融资决策的决定性因素,不同融资方式的期权价值对融资决策有重要影响。公司采取何种融资策略,要比较股权融资成本+股权融资期权价值和债权融资成本+债权融资期权价值的大小,上市公司的经营状况与债权融资存在正相关关系。本文扩展了融资决策的动因分析,为定量评价融资行为提供了依据。     

Multilateral adjustment,regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of multilateral adjustment to U.S. external imbalances in driving bilateral real exchange rate movements by developing a new regime-switching model that consists of a Markov-switching model with a time-varying transition matrix that depends on a threshold variable. Consequently, the dynamics of the real exchange rate can be modeled in the context of two regimes: one in which multilateral adjustment to large U.S. external imbalances is an important factor driving movements in the real exchange rate and the second in which the real exchange rate is driven mainly by country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals. We apply this model to the bilateral real Canada–U.S. dollar exchange rate and compare its performance to several other alternative models. All of the models are estimated using a Bayesian approach. Our findings suggest that during periods of large U.S. imbalances, an exchange rate model for the real Canada–U.S. dollar exchange rate should allow for multilateral adjustment effects.     

基于延期支付和价格折扣策略的易变质物品库存模型

在资金具有时值、供应商给零售商提供定期信用支付和价格折扣的支付策略条件下,讨论了需求跟价格相关、变质率为常数的易变质物品库存问题,建立了优化补货周期和销售策略的库存模型,目的是极大化平均总利润。分析了模型最优解的存在性和唯一性,并给出数值实验。     

Optimal time-consistent reinsurance and investment strategies for a jump–diffusion financial market without cash

This paper considers an optimal reinsurance and investment strategies for an insurer under mean–variance criterion within a game theoretic framework. Specially, it is assumed that the surplus process is governed by a Cramér–Lundberg model, and apart from purchasing reinsurance, the insurer is allowed to invest in a financial market with multiple assets that all can be risky, whose price processes are modeled by the jump–diffusion process. Due to the market without cash, the method of separating the variables is not viable any more. We turn to an alternative approach to solve the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, and closed-form expressions of the optimal strategies and value function are not only derived but also proved to be uniqueness. Moreover, some special cases of our model are provided and several numerical analyses for our results are presented as well. Under this criterion, different from existing literature, we find that (i) the value function is not linear but quadratic with respect to the current wealth; (ii) the optimal reinsurance and investment strategies depend on the wealth process; (iii) the parameters of risky assets(insurance market) have impacts on the optimal reinsurance(investment) policy; (iv) the safety loading of the insurer affects the optimal strategies.     

Rating and capital structure: How do the signs affect the speed of adjustment?

Standard and Poor's ratings can be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (?) sign to show the relative standing within each major rating category. In this paper, we analyze the influence of these signs on the speed of leverage adjustment for listed European companies in the 2004–2014 period. Our results indicate that (a) when a qualification is accompanied by a minus sign, it adjusts more slowly than qualifications either with a plus sign or without a sign; (b) when a rating has a plus sign, the adjustment is slower than when it has no sign; and (c) when a qualification is BBB‐, the speed of its leverage adjustment is close to zero. These results suggest that companies with signs in their ratings decrease their speed of adjustment to the target leverage ratio. In addition, such companies are especially concerned about a credit rating downgrade when it implies a possible loss of the degree of investment (BBB‐).     

Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

This study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to quantify the potentially asymmetric transmission of positive and negative changes in each of the possible determinants of industry-level corporate bond credit spreads in China. The determinants we consider include the corresponding industry stock price, China’s stock market volatility, the level and slope of the yield curve (i.e., the interest rate), the industrial production growth rate, and the inflation rate. The empirical results suggest substantial asymmetric effects of these determinants on credit spreads, with the positive changes in the determinants showing larger impacts than the negative changes for most industries we consider. Moreover, the corresponding industry stock prices, the interest rate, and the industrial production growth rate negatively drive the industry credit spreads for many industries. In turn, China’s stock market volatility and the inflation rate positively affect the credit spreads at each industry level. These findings may be helpful to investors, bond issuers and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit risks and corporate bond rates at the industry level.     

CVA-企业价值管理新理念

面对激烈的竞争,企业必须具有改革思想,要确立股东利益最大化为其经营管理目标,即价值管理。为了实现股东价值增值,管理者必须结合资本市场对公司的管理活动进行模仿、预期和分析,建立以价值为基础的管理的模型,对上市公司进行正确评估。本文从上市公司投资分析中存在矛盾入手,提出企业解决这个矛盾的方式只有使用价值管理理念进行投资评估和分析,在此基础上构造新的价值评价模型CVA-现金附加价值。     

The Dynamics of Capital Structure in Transition Economies

This paper uses a dynamic unrestricted capital structure model to examine the determinants of the private companies' target financial leverage and the speed of adjustment to it in two transition economies, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. We explicitly model the adjustment of companies' leverage to a target leverage, and this target leverage is itself explained by a set of factors. The panel data methodology combines cross-section and time-series information. The results indicate that the Bulgarian corporate credit markets were less supply -constrained than those of the Czech Republic during the period under investigation. Bulgariancompanies adjusted much faster to the target leverage than Czech firms. The speed ofadjustment related positively to the distance between target and observed ratio for Bulgarian companies while the relationship was neutral for Czech companies. The conservative policies of Czech banks and the exposure control were likely responsible for the slower adjustment among the larger companies while the opposite were true for Bulgarian banks and companies.     

Emissions burden shifting in global value chains – winners and losers under multi-regional versus bilateral accounting

ABSTRACT

International trade leads to emissions burden shifting and threatens mitigation targets. Multiregional input–output (MRIO) and bilateral trade input–output (BTIO) models are widely used to analyse emissions embodied in trade and global value chains. Especially, the last one is used in analysing border tax adjustment (BTA) on the carbon content of imports. The model choice is not trivial. The analysis shows BTIO's inability to capture the consumer-principle throughout the production chain and its inadequacy as an option for consumption-based accounting, because it allocates emissions to the first importing country and to the sector of production, instead to the consumer (both country and region). Regarding the BTA assessment, BTIO tax domestic carbon content of direct imports, but not indirect imported carbon content. MRIO does provide incentives for mitigation in third countries. The differences in allocation of emissions and taxes’ burden of both models have different consequences for developed and undeveloped regions.