Exploring causality in trade and air passenger travel relationships: the case of Asia-Pacific, 1980–2010

This paper explores the potential of heterogeneous Granger analysis in transport geography research by applying this method to a specific case of the often complex and potentially reciprocal linkages between the deployment of transport infrastructures and spatial economic development: the linkages between rising intra-regional volumes of trade and air passenger traffic in Asia-Pacific. Although conceptual and empirical linkages between both indicators can be assumed based on previous research, relatively little is known about the actual causality. Using heterogeneous Time Series Cross Section Granger causality analysis for the period 1980–2010, we explore the presence of four ‘causality scenarios’ amongst different country-pairs: (1) there is no co-evolution, implying that both patterns develop independently (e.g. Japan–Australia); (2) there is ‘real’ co-evolution in that both patterns influence each other through feedback loops (e.g. South Korea–Philippines); (3) air passenger traffic is facilitated by trade (e.g., South Korea–Philippines); or (4) trade is facilitated by air passenger traffic (e.g. Australia–Malaysia). Some tentative interpretations of this heterogeneity are offered.     

Do the regional growth effects of air transport differ among airports?

This paper empirically studies the contribution of air transport to regional economic development in Germany. We find that the scale and direction of output effects of air services and airport infrastructure differ among airports. These differences are driven by ‘opportunity costs’ of airport capital and by positive output effects from air transport connectivity. We argue that the latter impacts potentially depend on traffic characteristics.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from flying can offset the gain from reduced driving in dense urban areas

Numerous studies have illustrated how denser urban forms lead to smaller greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger transport. Many of these studies have excluded aviation since the association between urban structure and air travel is not as intuitive as it is the case of ground travel. However, several recent studies have concluded that air travel is a significant contributor to the GHGs from passenger transport. Furthermore, even air travel habits depend heavily on lifestyles and socio-economic factors that are related to the urban form. Here we analyse the interactions between urban structure and different transportation modes and their GHG impacts in Finland. The study utilises the data from the Finnish Transportation Agency’s passenger traffic survey from May 2010 to May 2011, which includes over 12 000 people and over 35 000 trips. The survey is based on one-day travel diaries and also includes additional data on long-distance trips from a longer period. Methodologically, the study takes a traveller’s perspective to assess the GHG emissions from passenger transport. We found that (1) air travel breaks the pattern where GHG emissions decrease with increasing density of urban structures, and (2) in the metropolitan region there is a clear trade-off between car-ownership and air travel in the middle income class. The main policy implication of our study is that air travel must be included in GHG assessments and mitigation strategies targeting travel behaviour. In dense urban regions, the emissions of air travel have the potential to offset the gain from reduced private driving.     

An economic–geographic assessment of the potential for a new air transport hub in post-Gaddafi Libya

Post-war Libya is faced with the challenge of adopting an air transport strategy for the future. One issue is how to address projects inaugurated under the Gaddafi government, such as the terminal extension at Tripoli International Airport. Additionally, the state-owned Afriqiyah Airlines had been establishing a niche hub in Tripoli before the 2011 war, but this development has subsequently been stalled.Against this background, we analyse the prospects of an air transport hub operation in Libya, focusing on traffic between Africa and Europe, from a bird’s-eye economic–geographic view. First, a literature review is undertaken to identify general success factors for air transport hubs. Second, a weighted average distance penalty (WADP) indicator is developed and applied to Tripoli as a potential hub location. This indicator considers all 4755 O&Ds between Europe and Africa with more than 100 passengers in 2012. For sensitivity reasons, alternative WADPs are estimated for the 3209 traffic flows not including North Africa and for (forecasted) future air traffic demand in 2020. The results for Tripoli International Airport are benchmarked against competing hub locations, such as Algiers, Cairo, and the major European airports. We conclude by discussing the implications of the current and anticipated future security and economic situation in the country.     

Why we fail to reduce urban road traffic volumes: Does it matter how planners frame the problem?

If the objective of reducing urban road traffic volumes and GHG emissions from traffic is to be achieved, the way in which land use and transport systems in cities are planned and developed needs to change. Despite apparent agreement that this should be done and how it could be done, cities continue to be planned and developed in ways that cause and allow growth in urban road traffic volumes. In this paper we ask how planners frame the ‘transport problem’, and how their framing of the problem affects urban planning, the resulting plans and developments and the urban road traffic volumes. The discussions are based on findings from a case study, a survey and interviews with planning practitioners.     

The determinants of air passenger traffic at Turkish airports

Investigating the determinants of air passenger traffic has become commonplace. In contrast with most previous publications, this paper investigates these determinants in an emerging country, Turkey, at the provincial level between 2004 and 2014. We find that GDP/capita, population, distance to alternative airports, tourism, leading cities, and international migrations all support more air traffic. Furthermore, market concentration is associated with less traffic, and the presence of academics with more traffic. Mapping models' residuals suggest catchment areas, surface transport options, domestic migrations and (geo)politics could also matter. Accordingly, it appears the determinants of Turkey's air passenger traffic do not differ from those of developed economies. The results also suggest new airports should be built based on the aforementioned factors.     

Characterizing the performance of queuing networks in terminal control systems

The terminal infrastructure is critical for the effective and efficient operation of air traffic flow. The increase in air traffic flow creates pressure on air transport infrastructures and networks. Therefore, decision-makers need to develop and utilize efficient evaluation and analysis tools based on the limited availability of resources. Inspired by the underlying structure of queues for air traffic flow, a Petri-net-based model is developed in this study to characterize the system performance. In this study, air transportation networks are analyzed using a series of performance indicators that are based on a discrete-event system model.     

Urban transport justice

Many cities in the world seek to establish more sustainable urban transport systems with a view to reduce accidents, congestion, air and noise pollution, and to improve social interactions, liveability and amenity values. Against this background, this paper frames urban transportation as an issue of justice: contemporary transport systems are characterized by injustice, as they tend to favour and prioritize motorized transport, accepting that considerable environmental and social burdens are put on more sustainable forms of transportation, other traffic participants and society as a whole. To conceptualize ‘urban transport justice’, the paper discusses three dimensions where injustices are apparent: Exposure to traffic risks and pollutants; distribution of space; and valuation of transport time. It is argued that public and political recognition of urban transport injustices provides significant argument for changes in urban planning, transport infrastructure development and traffic management.     

Measuring connectivity in the air freight industry

In this paper, we present an air transport connectivity model for air freight. For the purposes of this paper, connectivity is defined as all possible direct and indirect connections to or from an airport operated by wide-body aircraft, weighted for the quality of the connection in terms of transhipment and in-flight times. Using this model, we analyse the networks of seven European airports. Europe’s largest hub airports carry most air freight thanks to their extensive intercontinental passenger networks, while smaller airports with a strong focus on air freight carry large amounts of cargo on dedicated freighter aircraft. For air freight operations, the catchment area of an airport is much larger than it is for passenger services, as shipments are being trucked to their departure airport throughout all of mainland Europe. Since there are many airports sharing the same catchment area, potential competition for air freight is fierce. We found that well located regions between the four large European airports have access to large air freight networks, whilst regional air freight connectivity in northern and southern parts of Europe is substantially lower.     

The impact of emigrants’ homeland relations on air travel demand in a security volatile market: a case study on Lebanon

The impacts of international migration have been heavily studied. Much of this analysis has been carried out within the framework of the economic and social effects of migrants, to both host and home countries. This paper looks at the impact of Lebanese emigrants’ homeland relations on air travel demand in a security volatile market. The emphasis is on two particular features: first, the principal impact of liberal air transport policies in facilitating emigrants’ home visits; and second, the sensitivity of passenger-GDP relation. The paper pulls together data and other cases on the Lebanese emigration evolution and explains its impacts on the economy as well as on the air transport market in Lebanon. The study findings suggest that in Lebanon and due to the presence of interrelated factors, the variation and the strength of the relationship between traffic levels and GDP are neither consistent nor static. The considerably huge expatriate communities, which are three times greater than the Lebanese residents, are said to defy the negative impact of security instability on the air passenger growth through frequently visiting expats. Moreover, the emigrants’ economic support to Lebanon through remittance inflows is observed to dampen the sensitivity of the relationship between passenger and GDP in times of war and peace. The results should be looked at as indicative of trends to encourage policy makers to consider how best to make use of these human and financial flows.     

Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO₂ emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the VIBAT London study (www.vibat.org) which considers the role of the transport sector in reducing CO₂ emissions in London.The analysis develops a transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) for London. Within this, users are able to consider the implementation of a series of potential policy packages—low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long distance travel substitution, freight transport and international air. They can select variable levels of application to help achieve headline CO₂ emission reduction targets. The roles of carbon rationing and oil prices are also considered. TC-SIM can be played in different user modes: as ‘free riders’, ‘techno-optimists’, ‘enviro-optimists’, ‘complacent car addicts’ and other typical travel market segments, including a ‘free role’. Game playing or scenario testing such as this helps to highlight perceived levels of homogeneity of views within certain cohorts, the development of entrenched positions and the likely success in achieving objectives.The paper develops various policy packages, scenarios and pathways aimed at reducing transport CO₂ emissions. It argues that strategic CO₂ emission reduction targets are very ambitious relative to current progress, and that we need to act more effectively across a wide range of policy mechanisms, with a ‘high intensity application’ of many of the options, to get near to achieving these targets. A critical issue here will be in communicating and gaining greater ‘ownership’ of future lifestyle choices with stakeholders and the public, and participation tools such as TC-SIM could become increasingly important in this area.     

Air carrier's liability for the safety of passengers during COVID-19 pandemic

The paper aims to determine the situations when the air carrier is liable for the transmission of COVID-19 in the course of air transport. It must be emphasized here that the carrier's liability results from bodily injury or death that are caused by an accident on board an aircraft or during the operations of embarking or disembarking. Accordingly, in this paper, we addressed if the transmission of COVID-19 an ‘accident’ within the Conventions' meaning and the period of air carrier's liability for passengers' contraction of COVID-19, taking into consideration the exoneration of air carrier's liability in COVID-19 cases. In addition, this paper will study the scope of the safety measures as required by ICAO to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and therefore protect the passengers' safety. In our opinion, we found that the estimate is left to the judge because the assessment of this matter is based on an objective criterion based on the reasonable person test and the fact of each case.     

‘Devolution’ of transport powers to Local Government: Impacts of the 2004 Traffic Management Act in England

The concept of ‘Devolution’—the transfer of powers away from the Central Government to more local bodies of Government, has been used across many different areas of policy and by many different national governments. This paper examines the devolution of transport powers to the existing Local Traffic Authorities in England via the 2004 Traffic Management Act. The paper first presents a summary of how several different nations have undertaken this process of devolving transport powers and responsibilities to either new or existing bodies. It then presents research from an electronic survey concerning how English Local Traffic Aut`horities are choosing to use some of the new powers available to them and their opinion on complementary areas of transport policy. Research is also presented from structured telephone interviews, concerning how individual Local Authorities perceive the efficacy and equity of the new legislation. Overall, the results show that only some of these new powers are likely to be used by English Local Authorities, with limited variation in how different types of LTA are choosing to implement these new powers. The structured telephone interviews provided some evidence that rural Authorities in particular are more dissatisfied with the legislation and consider some of the measures unhelpful. The results provide some insights on the formulation of devolved policy applicable to existing Local Government bodies and the varying benefits that can be perceived to apply to different types of Local Authority. Conclusions are drawn on some of the practical difficulties arising from the English experience, and lessons of relevance are drawn for other nations considering a similar devolution of transport powers.     

Effects of the Asian Crisis on the geography of Southeast Asia’s air traffic

An examination is made of how the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998 has affected the geography of air traffic within Southeast Asia and between the region and other parts of the world. The study’s context is provided by an examination of extra-regional and intra-regional air transport networks in 1965 and 1995 to highlight the key features of the period of rapid traffic growth. This exercise is repeated in 1998 and comparisons are made with the 1995 pattern to gauge the impact of the Crisis on the geography of air traffic and the variable response of major regional carriers. Interpreting the many extra-regional and intra-regional patterns emerging from this data comparison proved difficult. Some of the readjustments and realignments can be attributed to the Asian Crisis, others cannot. There are many explanations of these patterns just as there are multiple causes of the Crisis. As the Crisis is related to wider interconnections of the globalising economy it cannot be seen as a separate and isolated event. Invariably, the general effect of the Crisis meshes with specific political factors.     

On the multi-dimensionality and sampling of air transport networks

Complex network theory is a framework increasingly used in the study of air transport networks, thanks to its ability to describe the structures created by networks of flights, and their influence in dynamical processes such as delay propagation. While many works consider only a fraction of the network, created by major airports or airlines, for example, it is not clear if and how such sampling process bias the observed structures and processes. In this contribution, we tackle this problem by studying how some observed topological metrics depend on the way the network is reconstructed, i.e. on the rules used to sample nodes and connections. Both structural and simple dynamical properties are considered, for eight major air networks and different source datasets. Results indicate that using a subset of airports strongly distorts our perception of the network, even when just small ones are discarded; at the same time, considering a subset of airlines yields a better and more stable representation. This allows us to provide some general guidelines on the way airports and connections should be sampled.     

Study of the topology and robustness of airline route networks from the complex network approach: a survey and research agenda

Communication via air routes is an important issue in a world organized around a web city network. In this context, the robustness of network infrastructures, e.g. air transport networks, are a central issue in transport geography. Disruption of communication links by intentional causes (e.g., terrorist attack on an airport) or unintentional (e.g., weather inclemency) could be crucial for countries, regions and even the airlines affected themselves. Policymakers and the management of airlines and alliances should be able to reduce the effects of such interruptions in order to ensure good communication through air transport (i.e., maximize the robustness of their network at a reasonable cost). The literature review of the study of air transport route networks through an analysis of complex networks has highlighted a lack of contributions to the study of the topology and the robustness of such networks which contrasts, with advances undertaken for other transport networks or communication systems. This survey suggests areas in which research should be undertaken, based on the existing literature in other areas and from three different perspectives: global route networks, airline alliances, airlines and airports so as to help towards a better understanding of air traffic and, therefore, to be able to assess the potential damage of any airport being inoperative for a continent, country or airline.     

Challenges to domestic air freight in Australia: Evaluating air traffic markets with gravity modelling

With two of the busiest air traffic corridors globally, Sydney-Melbourne (SYD-MEL) and Sydney-Brisbane (SYD-BNE), very liberal open skies agreements, and the world's most isolated large city in Perth, air freight in Australia should be destined for substantial growth, but has in contrast to other regions such as the US not yet materialised. This paper identifies challenges surrounding domestic air freight markets in Australia and compares the provision of road vs air freight services utilising gravity modelling methods. Our findings suggest the impedance of domestic air freight services in Australia is greater for regional areas between the primary cities (such as Canberra, between Sydney and Melbourne) than remoter areas (such as Cairns in Northern Australia). Our models show further that in addition to distance, air freight capacity on any of our analysed routes is despite being demand-pulled in terms of GDP dependency significantly attuned to factors at both the origin (in particular domestic trade capability, i.e. manufacturing and logistics) and destination.     

Rationalities and materialities of light rail scapes

Light rail is a modernisation of old tram systems and a popular tool in urban development strategies throughout many European cities. Light rails continue to be built despite often having poor socio-economic returns — other similar modes could provide the same transport function at a lower cost. Through a case study, this article explores the main vision and rationalities behind light rail projects in two mid-sized European cities — Bergen and Angers — and considers how this vision has materialised in various ‘light rail scapes’. The article argues that the city shapes the light rail project, but also that the light rail re-configures and shapes the urban structures, design and planning practices within the city based on its materiality and spatial interaction with it. This means that light rail projects need to be rethought as complex urban development projects instead of just simple ‘pieces of infrastructure’. Ultimately, this work seeks to shed light on a number of ideas for future light rail research and practice.     

Bussing between hegemonies: the dominant ‘frame’ in Oxford's transport policies

In 1972, a revolution in local transport policy in Oxford resulted in the dominant doctrine of the previous 30 years—providing for car use—being replaced by an alternative policy ‘frame’ focussed around the promotion of bus use. Although subsequently challenged in the 1970s and 1980s, the pro-bus policy community remained sufficiently strong to implement a further level of bus-oriented policy in the 1990s. Bus use in Oxford has returned to levels not observed since the 1960s, against a trend of decline nationally. The present paper examines how the policy problems came to be framed around the bus and how the frame evolved to accommodate changes in the funding and regulation of public transport. The extent to which the Oxford experience informs future policy-making towards demand management in urban areas is considered and the explanatory value of the concept of framing is revisited.     

Applying the new appraisal approach to transport policy at the local level in the UK

In 1998 the UK government introduced a new, integrated transport policy signalling a move away from the principles of ‘predict and provide’ towards those of ‘new realism’. As part of this policy shift, transport strategies are now to be assessed under the New Approach to Appraisal (NATA) which is designed to promote sustainability and provide a sterner test for new road proposals. Despite this, it is already evident that the construction of new roads has remained a cornerstone of the government’s new transport strategy––albeit alongside considerable investment in public transport––which has been described as pragmatic multimodalism. This paper examines how the new appraisal approach has been applied at the local level in the formulation of the first Local Transport Strategy (LTS) for Aberdeen in north east Scotland and questions the effectiveness of NATA (and its Scottish equivalent, the New Appraisal Methodology, or NAM), as currently formulated, at promoting the delivery of genuinely integrated and sustainable local transport strategies. The analysis of Aberdeen’s LTS is used to inform a discussion about the possible implications for future local transport policies across the UK.