Which is a stronger competitor,High Speed Rail,or Low Cost Carrier,to Full Service Carrier? – Effects of HSR network extension and LCC entry on FSC's airfare in Japan

In Japan, High Speed Rail (HSR) extended its network in 2011 and 2015, and Low Cost Carriers (LCC) entered into the domestic airline market in 2012. We compared the effects of the extension of the HSR network and the entry of LCCs on the airfares of the incumbent Full Service Carriers (FSC). We conducted Difference in Differences analysis with passenger level data to evaluate these market changes, and found that the effects of the HSR extension on FSC's airfares were consistently negative and larger in the short haul markets, while the effects of the entry of LCCs were inconsistent. HSR seems to be a stronger competitor than LCC to FSC and this finding could be affected by capacity, which is large for HSR while small for the LCCs.     

The emergence and effects of the ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC) business model in the U.S. airline industry

The effects of “low cost carriers” (LCCs) such as Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways on the competitive landscape of the U.S. airline industry have been thoroughly documented in the academic literature and the popular press. However, the more recent emergence of another distinct airline business model—the “ultra low cost carrier” (ULCC)—has received considerably less attention. By focusing on cost efficiencies and unbundled service offerings, the ULCCs have been able to undercut the fares of both traditional network and low-cost carriers in the markets they serve.In this paper, we conduct an analysis of ULCCs in the U.S. aviation industry and demonstrate how these carriers' business models, costs, and effects on air transportation markets differ from those of the traditional LCCs. We first describe the factors that have enabled ULCCs to achieve a cost advantage over traditional LCCs and network legacy carriers. Then, using econometric models, we examine the effects of ULCC and LCC presence, entry, and exit on base airfares in 3,004 U.S. air transportation markets from 2010 to 2015. We find that in 2015, ULCC presence in a market was associated with market base fares 21% lower than average, as compared to an 8% average reduction for LCC presence. We also find that while ULCC and LCC entry both result in a 14% average reduction in fares one year after entry, ULCCs are three times as likely to abandon a market within two years of entry than are the LCCs. The results suggest that the ULCCs represent a distinct business model from traditional LCCs and that as the ULCCs grow, they will continue to play a unique and increasingly important role in the U.S. airline industry.     

Reinterpreting the role of primary and secondary airports in low-cost carrier expansion in Europe

This paper discusses the long-term effects of low-cost carrier (LCC) presence at European airports and identifies the airports that have benefited the most from LCC consolidation since 2001. The research uses ‘LCC Market Share’, in terms of seats, to measure the relative importance of LCCs within each airport; and introduces ‘EU LCA Rank’ as a normalised metric of the capacity share of every airport in the European low-cost segment. It evaluates the trends between 2001 and 2019 in all airports in Europe using OAG supply information (seats by carrier). Results show two different phases of LCC rise in Europe, 2001 to 2008 and 2009 to 2019, marked by the effects of the financial crisis of the Great Recession. The analysis highlights the role that LCCs have played in boosting the growth of both primary and secondary airports. Indeed, despite the fact that LCCs have put many smaller airports on the European map, during the second phase of the period of analysis growth has been more significant for major airports and for a few airports that were keen to support the earliest development of LCCs. In that sense, this paper contributes to a better understanding of the historical and contemporary dynamics in European LCCs choice of airports and, in particular, the long-term effects that this disruptive business model have had for airports. This is increasingly important in the context of a potential recovery path from the effects of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper also attempts to settle academic discussions that attach LCC development to secondary/regional airports disregarding the wide range of strategies used by airlines and airports.     

Can low cost carriers deter or accommodate entry?

This paper analyses entry deterrence and accommodation by low cost carriers (LCCs) with two games. In the first game two LCCs compete in a horizontal differentiation setting. Results show that the entrant may drive away the incumbent from its original location under certain conditions. In the second game the incumbent is a LCC and the entrant a full service carrier, with vertical differentiation. The incumbent tries to deter or accommodate entry by product proliferation. We find out that the incumbent will only deter entry if it can surpass the entrant’s quality, and that product proliferation is not an accommodating strategy.     

Low-cost carriers versus full service carriers in ASEAN: The impact of liberalization policy on competition

This study analyses the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) policy to be introduced by the end of 2015. We conduct a scenario study to estimate the impact of low-cost carrier (LCC) network expansion under liberalized air transport policies in the ASEAN region. Establishing joint ventures is a possible way for foreign carriers to expand the network in this region, even after starting ASAM. This is unique as joint ventures are not only subsidiaries of the full-service carriers, as is the case in the United States and Europe. We also apply a quantitative air transport market model to estimate the policy impact of the entry of new LCCs on routes from three ASEAN hub airports to Manila airport, which covers the impact on the whole network. The model produces several significant results, including that the entry of one LCC on one route may affect the fare, frequency, and profitability of related competitive routes for the entire network.     

Low cost carriers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Emergence and barriers to development

This paper investigates the development of low cost carriers (LCCs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from a broader perspective. We use passenger volume data at the airline and flight segment levels to illustrate the development of LCCs in the region; we conduct a structured comparison of the actual business model characteristics of the MENA-based LCCs to assess their adherence to the archetypical LCC business model; and we compile the key barriers to LCC growth in MENA from the literature.We find that the overall market share of LCCs in MENA is still below the world average – despite high growth in recent years. The presence of LCCs varies considerably between MENA countries and route groups. The more upscale, “Jetblue”-style business model, where passengers benefit from additional, complementary services or product characteristics, prevails. Political tensions, adverse regulations and lower levels of liberalization compared to Europe or North America negatively affect LCC development in many MENA countries. While low middle-class proportions appear to be a challenge for low cost business models, Asian diaspora and tourism – from beach holidays to pilgrimage – seem to induce additional demand.     

Measuring the LCC effect on charter airlines in the Spanish airport system

Using a robust transfer function model methodology, the present paper seeks to offer empirical evidence regarding the size and type of effects that low-cost carriers (LCCs) have had on traffic for charter carriers (CCs) in the Spanish airport system by geographic market. We show an unmistakable substitution relationship between CCs and LCCs in the latter's typical niche markets, national and European flights, while there is no reaction from the CCs in the segment of international flights outside the EU. Furthermore, substitution effects are smaller between CCs and LCCs on the domestic level than effects between LCCs and network carriers (NCs) and slightly larger on the European level. Lastly, CC traffic's different sensitivity to terrorist attacks, day of the week, air accidents and the economic crisis is also evident. CCs should therefore be considered an independent category that warrants individualized analyses.     

The airfare pricing and seat allocation problem in full-service carriers and subsidiary low-cost carriers

This study investigates the competitive market situation in the air transport industry considering full-service carriers (FSC), subsidiary low-cost carriers (LCC) and rival LCCs on the flight-leg level while subsidiary LCCs are established by FSCs against rival LCCs to keep the market share and to make more profit. It is assumed that the demand of economy class for each airline follows a known distribution, and the mean value of that distribution is a function of its airfare and the airfare differences with other airlines. In addition, no-shows and cancellations are introduced to reflect a real situation. Based on this situation, a mathematical model is developed to derive efficient airfare pricing and seat allocation for each airline for maximizing the profit sum of both FSCs and subsidiary LCCs using a repeated game. A repeated game model integrated with a Tabu search algorithm and an EMSR based heuristic is suggested to deal with the proposed repeated game. A numerical example is provided to validate the model and solution procedure with hypothetical system parameter values under two kinds of market situations that show before and after the emergence of subsidiary LCCs.     

Introducing connecting flights in LCCs' business model: Ryanair's network strategy

In light of the ‘hybridization’ process characterizing airlines' business models, this work contributes to the literature by analyzing the rationale underpinning the decision to introduce connecting flights into the typical point-to-point networks of low-cost carriers (LCCs). By referring to the network of the largest European LCC, Ryanair, we provide evidence on how its new inter-connecting strategy is influenced by market, supply, and leg characteristics. Applying a probit model, results suggest that Ryanair is offering connecting flights on both non-directly offered markets and on markets that it already serves directly. The likelihood to observe a connecting flight increases at higher level of legs' frequency and at lower levels of Ryanair's legs' market share. Eventually, this new connecting strategy is negatively correlated with market distance, routing factor, direct frequency, and Ryanair's current O&D market share.     

Base abandonments by low-cost carriers

This paper is the first attempt to systematically investigate the phenomenon of base abandonments by low-cost carriers (LCCs) in the world, from 1997 to 2014. Our results identify 109 cases where the LCCs decreased their presence in airports by at least 50 per cent in terms of offered seats. In 28 cases, the LCCs completely abandoned the airports. The incidence of downsizing is significantly reduced for important base airports. The abandonment by LCCs can be reversed, even though this is not very likely; in only 7.3 per cent of cases the same LCCs recovered full capacity. The impact on airports of LCC abandonments depends on the carrier level of dominance. The presence of middle size alternative airports increases the likelihood of downsizings.     

The effect of LCCs operations and scheduled services deregulation on air charter business in Japan

Recent aviation deregulation is producing structural changes within leisure industries in many parts of the world. This paper reviews the development of low cost carriers (LCCs) and assesses its effects on both of domestic and international charter markets in Japan since 2007. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the effect of scheduled services deregulation on international tourism to Japanese regional areas in relation to charter services. The results suggest that in the domestic market, LCC operations have seldom impacted charter traffic due to the differences in target markets and routes. In the international market, LCCs launched scheduled services to Japan but mainly on high demand routes. The deregulation of scheduled services led to a passenger shift from charters to newly scheduled flights and a concentration of tourist arrivals in regional centres. It also led to a decline in international tourist arrivals in some remote destinations. This paper indicates a current trend in which charter business is still an important sector in aviation and leisure markets.     

The growing influence of low-cost carriers in Northeast Asia and its implications for a regional single aviation market

This paper provides an overview of the development of the low-cost carrier (LCC) sector in China, Japan, and South Korea. It is the first paper that documents LCC contributions to the passenger traffic and cheaper fares in Northeast Asia (NEA)'s intra-markets. We argue that a single aviation market can facilitate the growth of the LCC sector, which in turn will make a significant contribution to the NEA connectivity, mobility, and integration. In addition, with a single aviation market, NEA countries can adopt a proactive, unified approach in negotiating air transport agreements with the major aviation partners to maximize the interests of this region as a whole, which will further provide valuable growth opportunities for the LCCs.     

Using analytic network process to measure the determinants of low cost carriers purchase intentions: A comparison of potential and current customers

The goal of this study is to use the analytic network process (ANP) approach to develop an evaluation model which prioritized the relative weights of determinants of low cost carriers (LCCs) purchase intentions between potential and current customers. A field study with 96 potential customers and 84 current customers of LCCs was performed. The results found some similarities and differences between potential and current customers with regard to the determinants of LCCs purchase intentions. With respect to the final weights of these determinants, both customer groups considered “reliability and image” to be the important factor that affects their intentions to purchase LCCs. Additionally, “price and convenience” received a higher weighting by potential customers, while current customers emphasized the importance of “employee services”. The evaluation model and the results obtained using it provide a valuable reference for LCC managers who are seeking to facilitate effective customer relationship management.     

The impact of low-cost carriers on airport choice in the US: A case study of the Washington–Baltimore region

Previous research has shown that low-cost carriers (LCCs) may stimulate traffic at an airport by offering low fares. Using passenger survey data from the Washington–Baltimore region’s three airports, we find that the benefits of LCCs to airports extend beyond the traffic generated directly by the LCCs through their low fares. In addition, we find that the mere presence of an LCC at an airport can attract passengers, even to competing carriers. These “halo effects” from LCC presence increase the significance to airport managers of attracting LCCs in order to generate passenger demand.     

Low-cost carrier entry at small European airports: Low-cost carrier effects on network connectivity and self-transfer potential

Airport connectivity can improve the competitiveness of regions by attracting tourism and inward investment. Regions traditionally accessed international destinations via connecting flights to national gateway airports usually operated by full service network carriers (FSNC). However, the entry of low-cost carriers (LCC) in these markets has led to changes in incumbent FSNC service provision. We analyse how intra-European connectivity has changed at small airports between 2002 and 2012 and how LCC entry has affected the quality of day-return schedules in these markets. Results show that offline LCC connectivity is greater than that scheduled by FSNCs. Furthermore, LCC entry had a negative effect on the quality of the connectivity offered by FSNCs. Interestingly, we also found that day-return itineraries become more difficult for passengers in markets where the LCC is the sole operator. Regional policy-makers may need to more carefully consider the connectivity implications in the design of LCC start-up incentive schemes.     

Mergers and acquisitions in the EU low cost carrier market. A Product and Organisation Architecture (POA) approach to identify potential merger partners

As the EU low cost airline sector matures, consolidation is expected. This paper details a three-stage methodology to examine LCCs mergers and acquisition activity. A series of depth interviews with aviation experts concludes that the motives for LCCs to enter mergers and acquisitions are largely similar to those of full service carriers. A key success factor for merging partners is to have similar business models and culture. An analysis of full service and low cost carrier mergers and acquisition activity events shows that the size ratio and degree of network overlap between merging airlines are also independent of airline type. Braxton and BCG analyses of EU LCCs show Ryanair and easyJet to be the only LCCs in the market with strong strategic positions across the markets they serve. Finally, an application of the Product and Organisation Architecture analytical approach was used to compare seven EU LCCs. easyJet and Vueling were found to have the most similar business models and were therefore considered the best strategic fit for a potential merger.     

Airport selection criteria of low-cost carriers: A fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

The selection of airport is an important consideration for low-cost carriers (LCCs) to remain cost competitive. The objective of this study is to identify and rank the airport selection criteria of LCCs. Based on reviewing the existing literature, five main factors comprising 16 sub-factors were developed. The factors were first validated by three industry experts from the aviation industry. Thereafter, a survey questionnaire requiring a comparison of the factors was administered on 28 executives who were involved in the strategy planning and formulation of LCCs based in China or Korea. The collected data were analysed using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). In descending order of their importance, the main factors influencing LCCs' selection of airport are (1) airport charges, (2) airport performance, (3) airport growth opportunities, (4) catchment area and (5) airport infrastructure. The top three sub-factors are airport costs, demand for LCC services and passenger throughput. The research contributes to academic research by providing a holistic assessment of the key considerations influencing LCCs' selection of airport. In addition, it implicates policy formulation of LCCs by providing a framework for assessment of airports that are suitable for LCCs’ operations.     

Evolution trends of the network structure of Spring Airlines in China: A temporal and spatial analysis

Both the sustainable development of China's economy and the deregulation of the China air transport market have acted as a spur for the halting development of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in China. To analyze the development trends of LCCs' network in China, this paper took Spring Airlines, the only LCC in China as an example. First, the winter flight plans of Spring Airlines from 2005 to 2013 were collected. Secondly, the development trends of air transport network of Spring Airlines were explored with methods of mathematical statistics and social network analysis. Additionally, the development trends were analyzed from the levels of navigable cities, air routes and air transport networks. The results show that although Spring Airlines actively launched air routes between tourist cities with non-class I airports, its network has been transformed from a star structure into a complex one with multi-hubs. The development process of the Spring Airlines network can be separated into three stages. In addition, the problems and evolution trends of its network are discussed further.     

The impact of low cost carriers on Korean Island tourism

Given the mixed findings of extant research on the impact of low-cost carriers (hereafter LCC) on aviation markets (with some studies showing stimulation of new demand, other studies showing LCCs encroaching on the turf of full-service carriers), the emergence of LCCs in Korea raised an interesting question as to whether or not they actually contribute to overall growth in domestic air traffic. The literature has paid limited attention to this issue so far. Employing a multivariate regression analysis with monthly data from 2000 to 2009, the impact of LCCs on tourism demand to a popular destination in Korea, Jeju Island, is examined, focusing on two specific questions: Have LCCs generated new tourism demand and brought more tourism revenue into the island’s economy? Have LCCs mitigated tourism seasonality on the island? Controlling for the effects of a number of factors, results showed that LCCs have generated new demand in addition to existing tourist flows to the island. Korean LCCs accounted for 35% of total passengers in 2009, which indicates an average growth rate of 161.7% over the last 4 years, compared to a −0.3% growth rate for all full-service carriers in Korea. However, LCCs seem to have had little impact on reducing seasonal fluctuations in passenger traffic to Jeju Island. The findings of this study will be of interest to researchers, policy makers, and a variety of stakeholders in the tourism industry interested in the relationship between no-frills airlines and island economies.     

Evaluation of passengers' buying behaviors toward low cost carriers in Southeast Asia

The purpose of this paper is to examine how Southeast Asian passengers' attitudes and behaviors affect their buying intention and actual purchase of Low Cost Carrier (LCC) tickets. A research model was developed based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. A survey of 791 passengers was conducted in two major airports in Thailand to test the hypotheses. Results indicated the important role of passengers' attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control in LCC passengers' buying behaviors. The paper provides LCCs with useful information about passengers’ attitudes and behaviors toward using LCC services, which will help the carriers form necessary strategies to attract more customers.