Explaining changes and trends in the airline industry: Economies of density,multiproduct scale,and spatial scope

Changes in the shape and size of airline networks have not been explained clearly from a cost perspective based on the finding of increasing returns to density for given route structures and constant returns to scale for variable network size. We reassessed the estimates of these economies by using new scale and scope indices, finding savings due to changes in route structures and various types of economies of spatial scope not previously calculated: network size, trunk-local services and domestic-international services. Results contribute new insights on the role of cost incentives in the observed changes and trends in the airline industry.     

Does ANSP size and scope matter in the European ANS market? A multi-product stochastic frontier approach

This paper assesses the existence of economies of scale and cost complementarities in the European air navigation services (ANS) industry to provide policymakers and air navigation service providers (ANSPs) insight into the economic viability of possible industry-led consolidation and unbundling opportunities. While previous studies using parametric methods made abstraction of the multi-product nature of the ANS industry, this paper tries to fill that gap by estimating a stochastic multi-product translog cost frontier. The existence of economies of density and scale is evaluated from the estimated cost frontier at the sample means as well as for individual ANSPs in the panel. The results suggest that during the period from 2006 to 2016 the European ANS industry faced economies of density and produced at constant economies of scale in the sample means. However, cost complementarities do not seem to be present.     

Modeling the effects of wage premiums on airline competition under asymmetric economies of density: A case study from Brazil

This paper investigates the effects of wage premiums on the competition between Full Service Carriers (FSC) and Low Fare Carriers (LFC) in the airline industry. We study the impact of changes in the labor market and the resulting effects on performance in the product market and examine the role of economies of density. We develop an oligopoly model of airline competition with endogenous wages and simulate increases in labor costs. We apply the model to the case of the most important domestic route of Brazil using airline/route-specific demand and costs data. Our chief contribution relies on the empirical model of asymmetric economies of density for the competing business models. We estimate that LFCs have higher economies of density than FSCs. With the empirical models of demand, costs and wages, we compute the wage-elasticities of price-cost markups. We find that, on account of the higher sensitivity of marginal costs to labor costs of the FSCs, their markups are more affected by wage premium increases than the markups of the LFCs. The results are attenuated by higher economies of density, but amplified by higher price-elasticities of demand and lower economic growth.     

Multi-period efficiency and productivity changes in US domestic airlines

This study tracked the static efficiency and dynamic productivity changes of 14 US airlines from 2006 to 2015. Moreover, we estimated the principal economic drivers of the environmental variables to increase the US domestic airlines' efficiency using the double bootstrap regression analysis. The major aspects of this study are as follows: First, network legacy carriers have the highest efficiency, whereas low-cost carriers are lowest. Nonetheless, network legacy carriers still have room to improve scale inefficiency. Second, the fluctuations in technical change, rather than in efficiency change, tended to have greater effect on the fluctuation of Malmquist productivity index for US domestic airlines. Third, M&A between US airlines have both positive and negative effects in terms of efficiency and economies of scale. Fourth, cost environmental factors have a negative effect on US airlines' efficiency, while revenue factor is a positive effect. The results of this study may help US airline industry practitioners to understand the US domestic airline environment from an operator's perspective.     

Economies of scale in the US airline industry after deregulation: a Fourier series approximation

This paper analyzes the cost structure of the US airline industry after deregulation, finding that there exist economies of scale at moderate levels of output but that they die off at high levels. The cost–share system is estimated using the Fourier functional form. The global approximation property of the Fourier form allows consistent inference throughout the range of the data. The existence of economies of scale suggests that airlines will try to grow to the efficient size. This conclusion is consistent with the evolution of the US airline industry in the last decade.     

Economies of scale and density in urban rail transport: effects on productivity

This paper examines economies of scale and density in urban rail transport. It isolates the effects of constant and non-constant returns on output and productivity growth using data relating to 17 rail systems in cities around the world. Estimates reveal constant returns to scale but increasing returns to density. The productivity model shows that total factor productivity change has been of great importance in differentiating the output performance of urban rail systems. Our analysis of average labour productivity confirms the importance of shifts to other factors of production and technological change in explaining changing levels of output per worker.     

The impact of low cost airline entry on competition, network expansion, and stock valuations

We conduct event studies and statistical analysis to explore the impact of low cost carriers’ entry on legacy airline stock prices. Oligopoly structures, entry barriers, and high fixed costs make the airline industry highly susceptible to competitive and network expansion impact of low cost airlines’ entry. Positive stock returns are observed, which we interpret as the spillover effects of network expansion. Thus, rising passenger traffic and improved connectivity increase the revenues of legacy airlines to sufficiently offset the low cost carriers’ competitive threats.     

Characterisation of airline networks: A North American and European comparison

This paper contrasts the North American and European air transport markets using the extensive Official Airline Guide Databases. The pattern of network development in the two continental regions is examined using data for 1996–2008. The top ten carriers in both regions are analysed closely in terms of network structures and the basic geographical characteristics of these networks are highlighted. In addition, different measures of air transport activity such as seating capacity, and number of movements and of routes are compared. Visualisations of carrier networks are used to highlight the different network strategies operated by low cost and full service carriers. European carrier networks display many significant differences to North American carrier networks. European carriers generally organise their networks around one or two key nodes within the member state in which they are registered and generally do not operate interactive, continental-wide, multiple hub-and-spoke networks as do North American carriers. European and North American low-cost carriers operate much more interconnected networks than full services carriers. Southwest Airlines stands out as operating a particularly highly interconnected network.     

The transformation of a legacy carrier – A case study of Turkish Airlines

This study examines the metronomic rise of Turkish Airlines into a global carrier in the period following domestic deregulation and part privatisation. Using a comparative assessment of the carrier's network and its competitive strategies during the 2003–2013/2014 period it was found that Turkish Airlines now benefits from considerable network, cost, service and brand advantages over competing European and to a lesser extent Middle-Eastern airlines. Its network operation based in Istanbul Ataturk airport enjoys strong geographic and demographic advantages, which enables it to optimise the use of its large and young short-haul fleet between a significant number of domestic and international points. This study has important implications for partially or fully state owned legacy carriers as to how to gain competitive advantages in an increasingly open and liberal airline industry.     

Factors influencing the intentions of passengers regarding full service and low cost carriers: A note

This study investigates discrepancy in factors affecting passengers' intensions regarding using full service and low cost carriers. A conceptual model, that originally focused on the former, is adopted and slightly revised according to the service properties of low cost carriers. To validate the revised model, a questionnaire survey on passengers of Spring Airlines, the first low cost airline in China, was conducted. The results indicate differences in attitudes towards full service and low cost carriers. Service perception is a latent variable with the most significant influence on intentions about using full service carriers, but exhibits less effect on intentions regarding low cost operators. Conversely, service value exerts the greatest effect on intentions for possible low cost passengers.     

Innovation: The winning formula to regain profitability in aviation?

Most airlines have overcome the immediate effects of the recent global aviation crisis partly because of economic upturn and partly because of massive restructuring. Legacy network carriers had to take on the challenge of low-cost carriers, and regain competitiveness in short- and mid-haul business through considerable cost cutting and more flexible pricing models and are now profitable. On the other hand, many airlines do not make a reasonable profit, and the majority of carriers do not earn their capital cost. Airlines claim that they are still squeezed between their neighbors in the aviation value chain that leverage local monopolies (such as airports) or oligopolies (such as aircraft equipment manufacturers). Many legacy carriers, however, have not properly prepared for an era of deregulated and changing markets. They have not yet taken appropriate steps to escape from there positions between the few successful premium carriers and low-cost carriers. This middle position has little differentiation potential, an unsatisfactory growth perspective, and poor profitability prospects. Further, despite ongoing liberalization, the regulatory framework still does not enforce far-reaching consolidation, leaving the industry in a fragmented status with massive overcapacities. Consequently, the industry needs to further leverage external deregulation as well as internal restructuring to establish more efficient and competitive business models. Aside from basic cost cutting, innovation may become the decisive driver of progress, comprising advanced business models, customer segmentation, and technologies (Franke, M., 2006. Innovation: the winning formula to regain profitability in aviation? Speech at the Hamburg Aviation Conference, Hamburg).     

Evaluating competitiveness of air cargo express services

This paper explores the relative importance of factors that influence the adoption of air express delivery service, and evaluates the competitiveness of air cargo express carriers in the Korean market. Our AHP analysis shows that accuracy and promptness are the two most influential factors to competitiveness, and that DHL is most competitive in the Korean market, followed by FedEx, TNT, EMS, and UPS. We further examine both the factor importance and carriers’ competitiveness from the perspective of service users. While accuracy and promptness remain as important factors, price becomes the most important factor. Finally, an importance–performance analysis for each carrier is conduced, and managerial implications are drawn.     

Integrators' global networks: A topology analysis with insights into the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper we propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first analysis of the global networks of integrators FedEx, UPS, and DHL using network science. While noticing that all three networks rely on a “hub-and-spoke” structure, the network configuration of DHL leans towards a multi-“hub-and-spoke” structure that reflects the different business strategy of the integrator. We also analyzed the robustness of the networks, identified the most critical airports per integrator, and assessed that the network of DHL is the most robust according to our definition of robustness. Finally, given the unprecedented historical time that the airline industry is facing at the moment of writing, we provided some insights into how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the global capacity of integrators and other cargo airlines. Our results suggest that full-cargo airlines and, much more dramatically, combination airlines were impacted by the pandemic. On the other hand, apart from fluctuations in offered capacity due to travel bans that were quickly recovered thanks to the resilience of their networks, integrators seem to have escaped the early months of the pandemic unscathed.     

The emergence and effects of the ultra-low cost carrier (ULCC) business model in the U.S. airline industry

The effects of “low cost carriers” (LCCs) such as Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways on the competitive landscape of the U.S. airline industry have been thoroughly documented in the academic literature and the popular press. However, the more recent emergence of another distinct airline business model—the “ultra low cost carrier” (ULCC)—has received considerably less attention. By focusing on cost efficiencies and unbundled service offerings, the ULCCs have been able to undercut the fares of both traditional network and low-cost carriers in the markets they serve.In this paper, we conduct an analysis of ULCCs in the U.S. aviation industry and demonstrate how these carriers' business models, costs, and effects on air transportation markets differ from those of the traditional LCCs. We first describe the factors that have enabled ULCCs to achieve a cost advantage over traditional LCCs and network legacy carriers. Then, using econometric models, we examine the effects of ULCC and LCC presence, entry, and exit on base airfares in 3,004 U.S. air transportation markets from 2010 to 2015. We find that in 2015, ULCC presence in a market was associated with market base fares 21% lower than average, as compared to an 8% average reduction for LCC presence. We also find that while ULCC and LCC entry both result in a 14% average reduction in fares one year after entry, ULCCs are three times as likely to abandon a market within two years of entry than are the LCCs. The results suggest that the ULCCs represent a distinct business model from traditional LCCs and that as the ULCCs grow, they will continue to play a unique and increasingly important role in the U.S. airline industry.     

Evolution trends of the network structure of Spring Airlines in China: A temporal and spatial analysis

Both the sustainable development of China's economy and the deregulation of the China air transport market have acted as a spur for the halting development of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in China. To analyze the development trends of LCCs' network in China, this paper took Spring Airlines, the only LCC in China as an example. First, the winter flight plans of Spring Airlines from 2005 to 2013 were collected. Secondly, the development trends of air transport network of Spring Airlines were explored with methods of mathematical statistics and social network analysis. Additionally, the development trends were analyzed from the levels of navigable cities, air routes and air transport networks. The results show that although Spring Airlines actively launched air routes between tourist cities with non-class I airports, its network has been transformed from a star structure into a complex one with multi-hubs. The development process of the Spring Airlines network can be separated into three stages. In addition, the problems and evolution trends of its network are discussed further.     

Network industries in collision: aviation infrastructure capacity,financing and the exposure to traffic declines

This paper discusses how various aviation infrastructure service providers have dealt with the fall off in airline traffic following the terrorist attacks in the US on September 11th. It shows that these organizations have relatively high fixed costs and low incremental costs for providing services. As such, small changes in traffic have large impacts on revenue because revenues are generally proportional to activity. However, because of the high component of common and fixed costs, airport and ATS provider costs do not change in proportion to activity. When traffic declines, revenue shortfalls can arise because most airport and ATC systems operate on a simple cost recovery basis. The responses to the events of September 11th have also caused substantial increases in security costs. To the extent these costs are passed forward to system users, they will increase the price of travel and impact patronage further. Airlines also have substantial fixed capacity costs. The declines in traffic are often felt as an erosion of yields and fares as carriers seek to maintain traffic loads for the capacity they are going to operate. In general, the ability to pass along cost increases from providers to airlines or from airlines to passengers depends on relative supply and demand elasticities. Because infrastructure provision is often a monopoly, and the demand for airline services is price elastic, we suggest that most of the cost increases will be borne by the airlines. We also suggest that short-haul flights will be most severely impacted because the fees and taxes are a larger proportion of the fare for these flights. We also examine the extent to which additional infrastructure costs imposed on operators may exacerbate the downturn in their traffic.     

Price premiums and low cost carrier competition

This study presents a time series examination of price premiums in the US airline industry. Price premiums are defined as price markups due to domination and concentration at the airport and route market levels. The differential effect of these price premium drivers is empirically investigated, and it is shown that the largest components of price premiums are those from airport market share and airport concentration. The effect of low cost carrier competition on the level and composition of price premiums is of particular interest in this study. The results indicate that low cost carriers do not charge price premiums, and that high cost carriers’ price premiums tend to be lower when there is competition by low cost carriers. While the absolute values of price premiums have been fairly constant over the 1992–2002 time frame, the proportion of US passengers subject to price premiums has decreased due to the increasing share of low cost carrier traffic.     

Are low-cost carrier passengers less likely to complain about service quality?

Complaints made by airline passengers to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) are often used in academic research and in the media as a proxy for the quality of commercial air service in the United States. In this paper, we test whether passengers of network carriers are more likely to make a complaint to the DOT about service quality failures than passengers of low-cost carriers. Through a fixed-effects regression, we find that passengers of low-cost carriers like Southwest Airlines are less likely to complain about service quality than passengers of network carriers like United Airlines, given the same levels of service quality and controlling for yearly fixed effects. This behavior could be explained by price-based expectations of service quality, lack of information about how to complain to the DOT, or qualitative differences in front-line customer service between airlines.     

What comes next after recession? – Airline industry scenarios and potential end games

While airline managers learned lessons from the 2001/2003 “double dip” economic crisis, the post 2008 downturn has been more extreme. Airlines reacted quickly in 2008 and adjusted capacities and cost levels but recovery in profits has been slow for many airlines. The dynamics of the downturn has enlarged the gap between successful and less successful business models, and fostered shakeouts of the latter. Furthermore, the occurrence of new business models has accelerated. In 2001, it was the European continental low cost model; this time, we may see new attempts to change the rules of the game in international long-haul traffic. Long-term non-cyclical trends such as deregulation or consolidation will also shape potential end game scenarios, We briefly examine the differences between the last (2001/03) and the recent (2008/09) aviation crises, and evaluate the impact on different types of carriers.     

The geography of freighter aircraft operations in the Pacific Basin

The expansion of scheduled freighter aircraft operations is a prominent feature of the contemporary international airline industry. By 2000, more than 1600 freighter aircraft were in use worldwide, with much of that capacity deployed on routes in the Pacific Basin. This paper evaluates the factors that shape the geography of scheduled freighter aircraft operations with particular attention given to the place of individual Asian cities within that geography. The paper also examines the separate spatial strategies exhibited by the scheduled freighter operations of two important categories of cargo airlines: the express carriers like FedEx and the combination carriers like Lufthansa.