Understanding openness and productivity growth in China: An empirical study of the Chinese provinces

This paper investigates the effects of openness on China's regional productivity growth. We build a model of technology diffusion in which follower economies achieve productivity growth by taking advantage of technology spillovers from the world technology frontier. We hypothesize that China's regional productivity growth is a positive function of regional openness and a negative function of the current level of regional productivity. Empirical analysis in this paper focuses on how openness affects productivity growth in the Chinese provinces. We examine two effects of openness on regional productivity growth in China: the direct growth effect and the convergence effect. By using a variety of panel data regression techniques, we show that the direct growth effect of openness is the main effect while the convergence effect is insignificant. The findings of this paper lend strong support to the claim that the opening-up of China promotes the country's economic growth.     

International trade and economic growth: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the countries bordering the Mediterranean using a panel of eight countries from 1975 to 2016. We apply ARDL panel which is a technique recently developed. We study the effects of openness to international trade on economic growth while incorporating economic policy variables. The results show that the variables of commercial and financial openness favor economic growth. The free trade agreements that the European Union has signed with certain countries in the Mediterranean basin are designed above all to encourage greater regional economic integration and an increase in their potential growth. Therefore, our findings show that the financial sector is slow to affect economic growth in these countries. This study reveals that human capital and the investment rate support the economic growth of our sample. In addition, we conclude that a process of economic convergence has begun in these countries. A causal analysis was carried out we found an unidirectional causality ranging from economic growth to trade openness.

     

Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio

This paper develops and evaluates empirically the implications of a theoretical model of an open economy in which variations in both trade openness and capital mobility can influence the sacrifice ratio. Key predictions forthcoming from the model are that both forms of globalization can independently affect the sacrifice ratio, once the influences of the level of central bank independence and the degree of wage stickiness in nations’ economies are taken into account. Examination of cross-country data encompassing 58 disinflations for 16 countries yields evidence consistent with these essential predictions of the theoretical framework.     

A survey of the determinants of financial development

The positive effects of financial development on economic growth have encouraged researchers to study the determinants of financial development. Based on the theoretical and empirical studies undertaken, institutions, openness of trade and financial markets, legal tradition, and political economy are identified as factors promoting the financial system. Of these, political economy factors, which can have both direct and indirect effects through other determinants, could be considered the most influential factors in financial development. Variations in the political economy of countries could well explain variations in their financial development. Although all studies show the significant effects of these determinants on financial development, further research is needed to assess the impact of each determinant and the policies that could best promote financial development.     

Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.     

Bilateral Trade, Openness, and Asset Holdings

This paper analyzes the relationship between bilateral trade flows, trade openness, and asset holdings in a three-country stochastic general equilibrium model. The three-country model set-up enables me to disentangle the effects of bilateral trade flows and trade openness on bilateral portfolio patterns. I find that both factors independently influence bilateral asset holdings. Higher bilateral trade as well as higher trade openness lead to a higher bilateral foreign asset position. Furthermore, the model shows an interaction effect between these two factors, where increasing trade openness reduces the influence of bilateral trade flows on asset holdings. I provide supporting empirical evidence for these theoretical findings using a data set on the geographical composition of international portfolio holdings.     

贸易开放度与中国经济增长关系的地区差异研究

为了探求中国的开放政策是否促进了经济增长，以及开放政策对不同区域的作用是否存在差异，本文在相关文献回顾的基础上，运用中国大陆地区28个省、自治区和直辖市（海南、重庆、西藏除外）1984-2004年的相关数据，采用Panel Data模型对贸易开放度与中国经济增长的关系问题进行了实证研究。研究的结论认为开放的对外经济贸易政策促进了中国的经济增长；井且通过研究发现这一促进作用存在着地区差异，对于中西部地区来说，促进作用更大。     

论马克思的劳动力价值构成理论框架的开放性

随着知识经济时代的到来,部分学者对马克思的劳动力价值构成理论框架提出不同看法.文章结合现代劳动力价值形成过程的特点和对几种典型观点的分析,考察了马克思的劳动力价值理论体系的深刻内涵和其开放性,从而得出马克思的劳动力价值理论框架是经得起时代考验,不断自我完善和发展的科学理论体系的重要结论.     

The frequency of wars1

Wars are increasingly frequent, and the trend has been steadily upward since 1870. The main tradition of western political and philosophical thought suggests that extensive economic globalization and democratization over this period should have reduced appetites for war far below their current level. This view is clearly incomplete: at best, confounding factors are at work. Here, we explore the capacity to wage war. Most fundamentally, the growing number of sovereign states has been closely associated with the spread of democracy and increasing commercial openness, as well as the number of bilateral conflicts. Trade and democracy are traditionally thought of as goods, both in themselves, and because they reduce the willingness to go to war, given the national capacity to do so, but the same factors may also have been increasing the capacity for war, and thus its frequency.     

The effect of financial deepening on inequality: Some international evidence

This paper uses an unbalanced panel data analysis of 126 countries for the period 1963–2002 to analyze the effects of financial deepening on inequality. The principal findings can be summarized as follows: (1) financial deepening reduces inequality; (2) economic growth reduces the equalizing effects of financial deepening; (3) inequality increases with an increase in trade openness; (4) the disequalizing effects of trade openness decrease as a country grows; (5) financial deepening and trade openness therefore have asymmetric effects on inequality; and (6) these effects are robust to the choice of financial variables, inequality measures, and model specifications.     

Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China＇s Growth？

One of the missing pieces preventing us from understanding recent Chinese economic development is the role played by openness and capital accumulation in this process. The question is whether the sharp economic＇ growth that the Chinese economy has experienced is another case of export-led growth due to the open-door policy or whether, on the contrary, this growth has been caused by high domestic savings and investment rates （and the consequent capital accumulation）. To answer this question, we employed an empirical framework of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that both investment （in physieal capital and R＆D） and exports, as well as the exchange rate policy, are relevant factors in explaining China＇s long-run economic growth over the past 4 decades.     

Productivity,Trade, and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis

Recognizing that gains historically attributed to trade capture instead the roles of institutions and geography, we estimate the relationship between labor productivity and trade for a panel of countries, 1980 to 2000. We use real and nominal openness as measures of trade. The endogeneity of trade and institutional quality is accounted for with instruments. Our trade instrument is based on a theoretically motivated gravity equation and uses a more comprehensive data set than in related studies. Fixed‐ and random‐effects and system‐GMM panel estimation methods address potential biases associated with cross‐section estimations. We find a robust relationship between real openness and labor productivity from the 1990s. Countries that trade more generate higher levels of productivity, supporting an institutional theory of growth. We find evidence that countries with low‐quality institutions benefit from openness to trade and that the positive effect of trade on labor productivity is lower for more populated countries.     

资本开放、外汇储备累积与货币政策独立性——中国数据的实证研究

在开放和发展条件下,基于凯恩斯动态货币需求调节方程和Cavoli模型,本文构建了一个包含外汇储备增加的国内市场利率决定模型。对中国2001~2008年月度数据的OLS和TSLS回归结果表明,国际市场利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率影响并不显著,而物价水平、产出和滞后一期的货币供给等变量系数符号不仅与理论预期一致,且检验显著。论文进一步采用了递归的SVAR模型来分析国际利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率的动态冲击效应,脉冲响应函数表明这种动态冲击效应同样十分微弱,说明了中央银行的货币冲销有效性和国内货币政策的独立性。     

Technology adoption and multiple growth paths: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of the catch-up process in Thailand

As opposed to the Veblen—Gerschenkron catching-up hypothesis, the recent literature allows for technological divergence in backward economies. We extend a nonlinear adoption function to include openness and interact with capital accumulation in an intertemporal general equilibrium framework. The threshold gap necessary to catch up is endogenously determined by the economy's absorptive capacity. The model generates multiple transition growth paths depending on whether technological catch-up is achieved, and due to the endogeneity of the threshold gap, endogenous switching between development paths might be observed. Our simulations of the Thailand experience show how lack of investment in education and protectionism generate loss of transition growth and technological divergence. The paper highlights the role of absorptive capacity, and especially its importance for economies on the balance between low growth and high growth paths. JEL no. O41, O53     

Does the internet generate economic growth,international trade,or both?

Recent cross country panel data studies find a positive impact of internet use on economic growth and a positive impact of internet use on trade. The present study challenges the first finding by showing that internet use does not explain economic growth directly in a fully specified growth model. In particular openness to international trade variables seem to be highly correlated with internet use and the findings in the literature that internet use causes trade is confirmed here suggesting that internet use impacts trade and that trade impacts economic growth. A simultaneous equations model confirms the positive and significant role of internet use to openness and the importance of openness to economic growth. Internet use shows to be more impacting trade in non-high income countries than in high income countries whereas the impact of trade on economic growth is the same for both income groups.     

Openness and the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks on Real Output in Nigeria (1960–2003)*

Abstract: This study investigates the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the real output growth in a small open economy. It is a country‐specific, time series study that verifies the implication of increasing economic openness on the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy. A modified GARCH model was used to estimate the anticipated and unanticipated shocks. Two measures of fiscal and monetary shocks were combined with openness and real oil price shocks in a VECM model to assess the effects of anticipated and unanticipated policy shocks on the output equations. The empirical results showed that anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary shocks had no significant positive effects on real output. This suggests that the open macroeconomic version of the policy ineffectiveness proposition was valid for both monetary and fiscal policy shocks in Nigeria. This is in consonance with earlier works in this area. Furthermore, the degree of openness and oil price shocks had a negative implication on the efficacy of macroeconomic policy in Nigeria; also in agreement with the Dutch Disease Syndrome. Finally, the policy implication of this study therefore is that trade liberalization policy should be implemented cautiously. The Nigerian economy is weak to withstand the unwholesome consequences of full economic integration.     

Latin America and the Great War: A preliminary survey of developments in Chile,Peru, Argentina and Brazil

In this paper we present some preliminary ideas on a comparative study of the economic and social effects of World War I on Latin America. We argue that this issue has generally been conceived too narrowly, and that the events of the war years have much to tell us about the nature of capitalist development in the region. We begin by outlining some of the major external factors which influenced the course of economic change in the years before 1914. The initial impact of the war is then considered, particularly with regard to finance, trade and social dislocation. Finally, we briefly examine similar topics during the remaining war years. We conclude by arguing that the war did not provide an opportunity to alter the course of economic growth, but tended to highlight the weaknesses and magnify the contradictions of Latin America's brand of capitalist development.     

China＇s Regional Inequality in Innovation Capability, 1995-2006

This paper assesses both interregional and intraregional innovation inequality in China from 1995 to 2006.It is revealed that the east-central-west inequality has increased over time,whereas the inter-provincial inequality showed a V-pattern until 2003;Both inequality measures oscillated from 2004 to 2006.Using a decomposition framework recently developed by one of the authors,we determined that the major factors driving innovation inequality are population,economic development level,R&D,location and openness.The aggravated innovation inequality reflects the growth of China’s innovation centers in the eastern region and their admission into the global innovation networks.The fact that R&D is a major factor driving the inequality suggests that,considered in the present study,the efficiency of R&D investment improved in certian regions during the period(1995-2006).Finally, geographic location and openness affect innovation inequality primarily through the coupled evolution of innovation capability and economic development,resulting in first-mover advantages to provinces of the eastern region.     

Determinants of Trade Misinvoicing

Trade misinvoicing should be seen as an element of de facto capital account openness. Traditional explanations for trade misinvoicing??high custom duties and weak domestic economies??are less persuasive in a world of high growth emerging markets that have low trade barriers. We construct a 53-country data set over a 26?year span, covering both industrialized and developing countries, to study the phenomena of export and import misinvoicing. Capital account openness, differentials in interest rates, political stability, corruption, indebtedness and the exchange rate regime are identified as factors related to misinvoicing.     

Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation

This paper revisits the relationship between a country’s openness and its per capita income. Building on Frankel and Romer, it argues that a dynamic econometric specification similar to the ones used in empirical growth studies better fits the theoretical literature and also resolves some otherwise unresolved inconsistencies. The preferred econometric method is Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator, which allows dealing with measurement error, weak instruments, and time-invariant country-specific effects. The findings confirm the existence of a strong effect of trade on income but fail to find evidence for trade as an independent factor of divergence. JEL no. F43, O40