通胀风险迫使美元继续升息

美联储在5月10日例会上宣布继续加息25个基点。市场普遍预期美联储将暂停实施紧缩货币政策,以评估连续16次加息后的效果,观察一段时间后再决定货币政策的方向。然而,最近公布的一些经济数据表明,美国经济增长依然强劲,通货膨胀压力继续加大,美联储在下一次例会继续加息的可能性     

Depreciation,inflation and capital replacement*

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of depreciation, taxes and inflation on the optimal timing of asset replacement in accordance with the Canadian tax laws. The main findings are that an increase in the capital cost allowance rate will delay (accelerate) replacement of fixed assets at low (high) levels of capital cost allowance rates, and that an increase in the annual inflation rate will delay (accelerate) replacement of fixed assets at low (high) levels of inflation. The applications of the replacement model are illustrated with numerical examples.     

中小企业融资与融资租赁

融资难是当前中小企业发展的主要障碍,而融资租赁通过融资和融物的结合,兼具有金融与贸易的双重职能,具有其他融资途径不可比拟的优势,是解决中小企业融资难题的合理选择。     

Flexible exchange rates,inflation and economic development

Different economies have different propensities to generate inflationary pressures, and different capacity to absorb the strains occasioned by price and wage increases. Because of economic and institutional features of less developed countries, expansionary policies may have to be undertaken in a ‘typical” developing country, more often and to a greater extent than in a ‘typical’ developed country. Even a mild rate of inflation will be damaging under a fixed-exchange-rate system, if domestic prices increase at a faster pace than prices abroad. Chronic balance-of-payments difficulties are confronted by inflationary countries that are attached to a fixed-exchange-rate system. Rather than sporadic, substantial devaluations, periodical mini-devaluations may be advisable in developing countries with a relatively high propensity to inflate.     

Expected inflation,wealth effects and personal expenditure

Zusammenfassung Inflationserwartungen, Verm?gen und pers?nliche Ausgaben. — In dem Artikel wird ein Modell entwickelt, mit dem die Beziehung zwischen pers?nlichen Ausgaben und Inflationserwartungen getestet wird. Danach ist die Wirkung einer erwarteten Steigerung der Preise von dauerhaften Gütern auf die Ausgabenquote signifikant positiv, aber die einer erwarteten Preissteigerung bei Verbrauchsgütern und Dienstleistungen signifikant negativ. Schlie\lich wirken sich in übereinstimmung mit Friedmans Hypothese vom permanenten Einkommen Ver?nderungen des Realeinkommens in signifikanter Weise negativ auf die Ausgabenquote aus.

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Résumé L’inflation anticipée, les effets de patrimoine et les dépenses personnelles. — L’auteur a développé et testé un modèle pour explorer la relation entre les dépenses personnelles et l’inflation anticipée. L’effet d’une montée anticipée du prix des biens durables sur le rapport dépense/revenu est positif et significatif pendant que l’effet d’une augmentation anticipée du prix des biens non-durables et des services sur le rapport dépense/revenu est négatif et significatif. Finalement, en conformité avec l’hypothèse du revenu permanent de Friedman, l’effet des changements du revenu réel sur le rapport dépense/revenu est négatif et significatif.

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Resumen Inflaci?n esperada, efectos de riqueza y gasto personal. — Se desarroll? y someti? a prueba un modelo para relacionar el gasto personal con la inflaci?n esperada. El efecto de la inflaci?n esperada para los precios de bienes durables sobre la proporci?n del gasto es positivo y significante, mientras que el efecto de la inflaci?n esperada para los precios de los bienes no durables y servicios sobre la proporci?n del gasto es negativo y significante. Finalmente, de acuerdo con la hip?tesis del ingreso permanente de Friedman, el impacto de cambios en el ingreso real sobre la proporci?n del gasto es negativo y significante.

     

Recession, inflation and the international monetary system

The difficult circumstances being faced by the world economy and its uncertain prospects for the 1980s make it necessary to take a new look at the present financial mechanisms and international institutions for monetary cooperation, with a view to adapting them to current needs and to developments in the near future. The industrial countries will have more modest rates of growth than in earlier decades, and this will have significant consequences for the developing countries: (a) stagnation of official development aid flows; (b) possible intensification of protectionist trends; (c) slow growth of producers of raw materials whose export markets will be seriously limited; (d) gradual shift of world economic and political activity toward oil-producing developing countries and, to a lesser extent, toward the exporters of manufacturers; (e) industrial countries and raw materials producers will become increasingly interdependent; (f) oil-producing and other higher income developing countries will increase their participation in regional economic cooperation and official development aid efforts. Some of the more specific problems which require attention from the international community are inflation and recession; structural disequilibria, recycling and external debt; adjustment process; creation of liquidity and transfer of resources; and participation of the developing countries in the monetary system.     

Annuities and inflation

This paper embodies the views of the author and does not represent the views or policy of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.     

Capital adjustment costs,time-to-build effects,and inflation nonneutrality

The paper examines how the presence of capital adjustment costs and time-to-build constraints weaken the Fisher effect and inflation neutrality, and hence attenuate the arbitrage opportunities implicit in intertemporal substitution and the investment decision. It is demonstrated that large and permanent changes in inflation affect nominal interest rates, intertemporal substitution, and investment choices differently than small or temporary changes. Small, transitory inflationary innovations will lower real interest rates, yet create no arbitrage opportunities since the benefits from these low rates will be insufficient relative to the adjustment costs implicit in altering investment. Large, permanent inflationary innovations will possess no real effects. The paper then presents empirical work to support the prediction that the expected inflation effect on nominal interest rates depends on the perceived size and permanence of the innovation.     

中小企业融资困境及融资体系的构建

一、中小企业发展现状及作用 目前我国工商注册的中小企业超过800万家，占全部企业总户数的99％以上。中小企业创造近一半的国内生产总值，其工业总产值、实现利税、出口总额分别占全国的60％、40％和60％左右，中小企业提供的就业岗位约占全国城镇就业总数的75％，新增就业人数占我国全部新增就业人数70％左右。由此可见，中小企业在我国经济发展中具有举足轻重的作用，但是，其普遍存在的融资难的问题已经成为中小企业发展的瓶颈问题。     

我国高科技企业融资模式与融资现状

一、高科技企业及其融资特点1.高科技企业的界定各国对于高科技企业的界定方法不尽相同。如美国采用研究与开发强度即产品研究与开发费用在总资产中的比例,以及科技人员占总劳动力的比重作为界定的标准。法国以产品循环论来界定,认为只有当一种新产品使用标准生产线生产,具有相     

Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence

Disinflation Costs, Accelerating Inflation Gains, and Central Bank Independence. - This paper considers the impact of central bank independence on both the costs of disinflation and the gains of accelerating inflation. For this purpose, sacrifice ratios for disinflation episodes and benefice ratios for accelerating inflation episodes are constructed by using a new method. The ratios are calculated for 19 industrial countries over the period 1960–1992. The results indicate that central bank independence only matters during disinflation episodes: Sacrifice ratio and output loss are higher, the more independent the central bank is; whereas during accelerating inflation episodes, central bank independence has no influence on either the benefice ratio or the output gain.     

银行贷款、管理者投资行为与公司投资效率

本文从我国制度背景出发,以管理者投资行为和银行贷款行为作为理论基础,检验银行贷款对公司投资效率的影响。研究发现:在整个样本考察期间(2002～2009年),若没获得银行贷款,国有和非国有公司都存在投资不足。获得贷款后,国有公司的投资状况与无贷款时相比发生显著变化,出现过度投资,但非国有公司的改变并不显著,且无显著的过度投资。在金融危机期间(2008～2009年),国有公司获得贷款后出现过度投资,且程度显著高于整个样本期间的平均水平。非国有公司获得贷款后却没有出现过度投资,但没获得贷款时的投资不足程度比整个样本期间更为严重。本文解释了近几年我国大部分国企大规模投资,民企却普遍出现投资不足的现象,并对评估金融危机间银行信贷扩张的实际效应提供理论参考。     

企业融资与信用制度和债信文化

投融资问题是企业经营中一个最复杂、最困难的问题。企业经营的成功在很大程度上取决于投融资决策的正确选择。这也是为什么在企业理论“三中心”说中,成本中心和利润中心仅仅是企业的一部分职能,而投资中心才是完整企业的基本标志。     

民营上市公司:融资偏好与股权融资效应

根据2006~2009年连续4年的融资结构数据,我国民营上市公司融资选择与"啄序理论"相反,即先外源后内源融资。在外源融资上,它们几乎不采用债券融资,偏好于商业信用、短期借款和股权融资;在内源与外源融资的选择上,总体上则更偏好于外源融资,且利用短期融资工具能力远强于利用长期融资工具的能力。同时,基于股权融资效应分析,实证得出股权融资对民营上市公司的业绩有负面影响,进而提出改善其融资结构的若干措施。     

Petroleum prices,exchange rates,and domestic inflation in developing nations

Zusammenfassung ?lpreise, Wechselkurse und die Inflation in Entwicklungsl?ndern. — In diesem Aufsatz wird das monet?re Modell einer geschlossenen Volkswirtschaft erweitert, um zu untersuchen, auf welchem Wege und in welchem AusmaΒ der Anstieg des Preises und der gesamten Kosten für importiertes Erd?l die Inflation in den ?limportierenden Entwicklungsl?ndern seit Herbst 1973 beeinfluΒt hat. Der empirische Befund l?Βt erkennen, daΒ die h?heren ?lpreise zwar zur Inflation in diesen Entwicklungsl?ndern beigetragen haben (besonders in den groΒen L?ndern und in denen mit bereits hoher Inflation), daΒ die Inflation in diesen L?ndern aber haupts?chlich von der übergroΒen Expansion der heimischen Geldmenge herrührt.

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Résumé Prix pétroliers, taux de change et inflation local dans les nations développantes. — Dans cet article l’auteur étend le modéle monétaire d’une économie fermée pour examiner les canaux et l’importance relative de l’augmentation du prix et des frais totaux du pétrole importé sur l’inflation locale dans les pays développants depuis l’automne 1973. Les résultats empiriques semblent indiquer que les prix pétroliers plus hauts contribuaient à l’inflation locale dans les nations développantes qui importent du pétrole (particuliérement dans les grandes nations et dans celles d’une inflation déjà haute), mais que l’inflation dans ces nations était largement le résultat d’une excessive expansion monétaire locale.

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Resumen Precios del petróleo, tasas de cambio e inflaci?n domèstica en pafses en desarrollo. — En este articulo se ha extendido el modelo monetario de economfa cerrada para examinar los canales y la importancia relativa del aumento en el precio y en el costo total del petr?leo importado sobre la inflaci?n domèstica en paises en desarrollo importadores de petr?leo desde otono de 1973. Los resultados empiricos parecen indicar, que mientras los mayores precios del petr?leo contribuyeron a la inflaci?n domèstica en los pafises en desarrollo importadores de petr?leo (especialmente en paises grandes y de altra inflaci?n), la inflaci?n en estos pafses fuè el resultado primariamente de la excesiva expansion monetaria domèstica.

     

Openness, Investment and Growth

In the empirical growth literature both investment and opennessto international trade have been identified as important determinantsof growth. These relationships appear to be robust in a numberof specifications. However, Sachs and Warner claim that opennessis such an important determinant of investment that the coefficienton investment will be insignificant in growth regressions, whichalready account for openness. I re-examine this result and canonly support it if I use their model specification and estimationmethod. I suggest that their ordinary least squares estimationsuffers from both endogeneity and omitted variable bias. Usingpanel data analysis, I show that ignoring unobserved country-specificeffects and endogeneity problems cause investment to be insignificant.Estimating the model with the Blundell and Bond system generalmethod of moments estimator, which allows me to address theomitted variable as well as the endogeneity bias, I find thatinvestment is significant in the Sachs–Warner model despitecontrolling for openness. Thus, my regressions confirm thatopenness has a significant, positive effect on income. However,this variable is not so important that it drives investmentout of the model. My re-examination of the Sachs–Warnermodel shows that results from single cross-country growth regressionscan be misleading when unobserved country-specific effects andendogeneity problems are ignored.     

透视通胀加剧及升息风险

相对于通缩风险而言,中国的通胀风险更大。通胀意外上升将成为2007年中国经济和市场面临的主要风险。日前,中国的通胀数据令人略感意外:12月份消费物价指数按年上升2.8%,远高于11月份的1.9%,也远远超出市场预期。消费物价指数意外上升主要是由于食品价格上升超出预期所致。此外,为更准确地反映中国的实际通胀水平,国家统计局承诺将继续进行消费物价指数成分调整,这或许也构成部分原因。我们不应对此感到惊讶,因为官方消费物价指数构成成分可能大大低估了中国的实际通胀压力。     

Note on 'Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy'

This note presents an analysis which generalizes the resultsreached by Blackburn and Pelloni (2005) on the relationshipbetween short-term stabilization policy and long-term growthby considering both deliberate (internal) and serendipitous(external) learning mechanisms for productivity growth.