Liquidity, redistribution, and the welfare cost of inflation

The long-run welfare costs of inflation are studied in a micro-founded model with trading frictions and costly liquidity management. By modelling the liquidity management decision, the model endogenizes the responses of velocity, output, the degree of market segmentation, and the distribution of money. Compared to the traditional estimates based on a representative agent model, the welfare costs of inflation are significantly smaller due to distributional effects of inflation. The welfare cost of increasing inflation from 0% to 10% is 0.62% of consumption for the US economy. Furthermore, the welfare cost is generally non-linear in the inflation rate.     

A note on the integrability of partial-equilibrium measures of the welfare costs of inflation

Multidimensional measures of the welfare costs of inflation have been employed in the literature without an explicit concern of how the demand for the respective monetary assets are generated and without an investigation of the respective integrability conditions. This note establishes conditions under which such welfare measures are well defined.     

Menu costs and Markov inflation: A theoretical revision with new evidence

We revisit a foundational theoretical paper in the menu-cost literature, Sheshinski and Weiss [1983. Optimum pricing policy under stochastic inflation. Review of Economic Studies 50(3), 513-529], one of the few to treat stochastic inflation with persistent deviations from trend. In contrast to the original finding, we show that optimal pricing in this environment entails using different (s,S) bands in high-inflation and low-inflation states of the world. The low-inflation band is strictly contained within the high-inflation band. This revised solution has very different implications from the original one. Firms are generally risk loving, not risk averse, with respect to inflation. An increase in the variance of inflation increases price dispersion when inflation is high and decreases price dispersion when inflation is low. On an aggregate level, this optimal pricing would lead to bunching of prices and non-neutrality of money in the setting of Caplin and Spulber [1987. Menu costs and the neutrality of money. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4), 703-725]. To test the main finding, we construct an establishment-level dataset from the months surrounding Mexico's “tequila crisis” in 1995. In the high-inflation state, price increases are larger and establishments allow their prices to vary more widely around their respective long-run mean relative prices. Cross-establishment price dispersion is lower, but this result seems due to decreased establishment heterogeneity rather than narrower (s,S) bands. Overall, the evidence suggests that establishments employ wider (s,S) bands in the high-inflation state.     

On the general equilibrium costs of perfectly anticipated inflation

In monetary models where M0 has no social costs and a positive demand for cash and deposits is taken as a primitive, we show that the compensating variation in endowment is the exact general equilibrium measure of welfare costs of perfectly anticipated inflation. As a consequence, we show that a good approximation to the welfare costs of inflation is given by the area under the compensated demand for M0, a result that brings us back to Bailey (J Polit Econ 64:93–110, 1956). The estimated welfare costs of inflation are bounded at less than a quarter of a percent of the GDP for the U.S. economy.      

Different statistical core inflation measures for India: construction and evaluation

This paper computes several statistical measures for core inflation for India and provides methodology of construction of these core measures. Some of these have been computed for the first time for India, such as: persistence weighted, variations of ‘Neo-Edgeworthian Index’, asymmetric trimmed mean, and month-by‐month exclusion (dynamic trimmed mean) core measures. For computing these core measures, the study uses both aggregate WPI and a detailed breakdown of the WPI. It covers the period April 1994–April 2009, with 1993–1994 as the base year. Subsequently, a comparison of these estimated core measures based on the criteria of usefulness of a measure of core inflation from a monetary policy point of view is carried out. The study finds only some representative measures of core inflation to be useful.     

关于危机后通货膨胀目标制有效性的探讨

20世纪90年代以来,通货膨胀目标制逐渐成为全球主流的货币政策框架选择。但在全球金融危机爆发后,国际经济金融环境的巨大变化对通胀目标制提出挑战,通胀目标制是否已经过时成为了当前全球货币政策框架研究的一个热点议题。文章以英国为例,揭示了危机以来通胀目标制实践所遇到的制约,阐述了对通胀目标制进行完善而不是放弃的理由,探讨了未来通胀目标制的调整方向以及中央银行会面临的相关挑战。     

The welfare cost of bank capital requirements

Capital requirements are the cornerstone of modern bank regulation, yet little is known about their welfare cost. This paper measures this cost and finds that it is surprisingly large. I present a simple framework, which embeds the role of liquidity creating banks in an otherwise standard general equilibrium growth model. A capital requirement limits the moral hazard on the part of banks that arises due to deposit insurance. However, this capital requirement is also costly because it reduces the ability of banks to create liquidity. The key insight is that equilibrium asset returns reveal the strength of households’ preferences for liquidity and this allows for the derivation of a simple formula for the welfare cost of capital requirements that is a function of observable variables only. Using US data, the welfare cost of current capital adequacy regulation is found to be equivalent to a permanent loss in consumption of between 0.1% and 1%.     

低通货膨胀与货币政策

持续15年的全球低通货膨胀,主要得益于各国成功的稳定化政策。低通货膨胀显示货币政策好处的同时,也给货币政策带来挑战。根据美日等国家的低通货膨胀经验,一个国家最好不要走向零利率的边缘,采取预防性的政策防止经济陷入通货紧缩至关重要。此外,需要正确认识货币政策的作用,货币政策长期的目标应该是为经济发展提供一个稳定的货币环境。美日国家预防低通货膨胀的经验对于中国宏观经济的平稳运行具有重要的借鉴意义。     

当前中国通货膨胀的成因和对策

当前中国通货膨胀形成的原因包括需求拉动、自然灾害、通胀预期、市场投机等短期因素和增长方式转变、经济结构调整、自然资源有限性、要素价格重估、成本推动等长期因素.本文认为适度通胀有利于当前经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变.当前宏观调控效果初步显现,短期还应继续实行适度紧缩政策,但紧缩力度需逐步降低;应参考一篮子货币,保持人民...     

我国当前经济考察及宏观调控对策

防止经济增长由偏快转为过热,防止物价由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀,成为我国当前宏观调控的首要任务。新一轮的宏观经济背景发生了较大变化,宏观调控手段和思路必须要根据新的经济环境作出调整。对当前经济形势的新变化作出充分估计和分析,将对我国宏观调控效应具有重要的现实意义。     

关于通胀预期形成模式及其管理对策的研究

该文在对通胀预期三种形成方式进行比较分析的基础上,认为不完全理性预期是较为符合实际的预期形成方式;而通货膨胀持久性、经济主体获得信息并进行有效分析的能力、中央银行信誉是影响不完全理性预期的主要因素。中央银行应在货币政策目标上赋予币值稳定更高的权重,并通过进一步加强与公众的沟通,尽量向公众提供能使其形成合理预期所需的信息量等方式来管理通货膨胀预期。     

Financial sophistication and the distribution of the welfare cost of inflation

The welfare cost of anticipated inflation is quantified in a calibrated model of the U.S. economy that exhibits tractable equilibrium dispersion in wealth and earnings. Inflation does not generate large losses in societal welfare, yet its impact varies noticeably across segments of society depending also on the financial sophistication of the economy. If money is the only asset, then inflation mostly hurts the wealthier and more productive agents, while those poorer and less productive may even benefit from inflation. The converse holds in a more sophisticated financial environment where agents can insure against consumption risk with assets other than money.     

货币政策动态不一致性问题的研究及启示

基于中国的具体实际,在回顾分析货币政策动态不一致性以及早期有关此问题的种种解决建议之后,本文深入分析了该问题,并对中国的货币政策规则和中国人民银行的政策运行提出了一些有益的建议。     

对货币供应，产出缺口在通胀传导中机制的研究

随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。     

通货膨胀动态路径的结构性转变及其启示

通货膨胀动态机制是否发生结构性转变对分析通货膨胀动态走势和制定宏观经济政策都至关重要。本文运用新的未知断点结构性变化检验法研究了1981-2007年中国月度通胀率动态路径的内生性变化,并使用非标准分布条件下的渐进伴随概率分布函数计算了干扰参数检验统计量对应的p-值。实证结果显示,通货膨胀动态路径在九十年代中期发生了显著的结构性变化。基于这种结构性转变的脉冲响应对比分析说明,新时期货币当局需要加强对通货膨胀动态路径变化的监控,防止通胀持续上升。     

国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化研究

本次全球金融危机以来,关干改革国际货币体系的呼声此起彼伏,相关改革方案也层出不穷。从国际货币体系由金本位制→金汇兑本位制→黄金→美元本位制→美元本位制的历史演变轨迹可以看出,国际货币形态的更替首先是市场选择的结果,汇率制度的变革决定于大国之间的长期博弈。尽管目前有关国际货币体系改革的目标模式有多种选择,但最有可能出现的结果将是由美元、欧元、日元、人民币、黄金、特别提款权等多种货币相互制衡的国际货币格局。在国际货币体系改革进程中,人民币国际化无疑是关键的推动力。从目前的国际政治经济格局看,人民币国际化的路径应当是周边化→区域化→国际化“三步走”的战略。决定人民币国际化战略能否成功以及在多大程度上成功的根本因素,在于我们能否正视国内经济发展的深层体制和结构问题,能否通过体制改革和结构调整为国民经济持续增长、综合国力不断提升、对外留易不断增强制措条件。     

中国核心通货膨胀率的度量及其货币政策涵义

基于包含实际总产出、货币供给M2和CPI的向量自回归模型(VAR),将CPI分解为长期变动趋势和短期波动项。将长期趋势部分定义为核心通货膨胀率。运用1994～2009年中国季度数据进行实证检验,核心通胀率与CPI有长期均衡关系,主导CPI的长期变动趋势,是CPI的前导变量,能够为预测CPI提供有用信息,对为中央银行判断总体通货膨胀走势、制定及时有效的货币政策有所启示。     

Seasoned equity offerings: Quality of accounting information and expected flotation costs

Flotation costs represent a significant loss of capital to firms and are positively related to information asymmetry between managers and outside investors. We measure a firm's information asymmetry by its accounting information quality based on two extensions of the Dechow and Dichev [2002. The quality of accruals and earnings: the role of accrual estimation errors. Accounting Review 77, 35–59] earnings accruals model, which is a more direct approach to assessing the information available to outside investors than the more commonly used proxies. Our main hypothesis is that poor accounting information quality raises uncertainty about a firm's financial condition for outside investors, though not necessarily for insiders. This accounting effect lowers demand for a firm's new equity, thereby raising underwriting costs and risk. Using a large sample of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), we show that poor accounting information quality is associated with higher flotation costs in terms of larger underwriting fees, larger negative SEO announcement effects, and a higher probability of SEO withdrawals. These results are robust to joint determination of offer size and flotation cost components and to adjustments for sample selection bias.     

经济扩张、温和通胀与外生货币供给背景下的债市交易策略

2010年宏观经济基本面将面临经济增长由复苏走向扩张、物价预期由通缩走向通胀、货币供给由内生走向外生的三大转变。由此,货币政策可能在适度宽松基调下有所收紧。在此背景下,2010年的债市机会与风险并存,投资者需要在债券品种、期限和等级方面做出谨慎选择,以应对宏观经济基本面和货币政策的变化。     

The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

I analyze a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where the financing of productive investment is affected by a moral hazard problem. I solve for jointly Ramsey‐optimal monetary and macroprudential policies. I find that when a financial friction is present in addition to the standard nominal friction, the optimal policy can replicate the first‐best allocation if the social planner can conduct both monetary and macroprudential policy. Using monetary policy alone is not enough: a policy trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and output gap emerges. When policy follows simple rules, the source of fluctuations is relevant for the choice of the appropriate policy mix.