脚手架中人为错误发生规律的数学模型及其在人因可靠度分析中的应用

人为错误是脚手架坍塌的主要因素.分析此类人为错误的特点,将其分为结构性错误和参数性错误两类,给出基于现场调查数据的初始人为错误发生率的计算方法和错误大小的概率模型,提出改进的证据融合方法,给出错误保有率的区间模型及其计算公式,建立扣件式脚手架中人为错误的数学模型.基于上述数学模型,给出人因可靠度的区间分析方法,为研究脚手架的安全性提供理论基础.     

Consumption-investment trade-off,wage-profit trade-off,and terms of trade

In most modern models of international trade the assumptions made are that goods are produced, consumed and traded internationally according to the dictates of national utility functions. The gains of international trade are also seen to be higher levels of utility.This paper uses an input-output model to determine which country specializes in capital-good manufacture and which in the consumption goods. The criterion determining this in a planned economy uses the property of maximum growth rate of goods produced for a given per capita consumption (or its reverse causation of maximum per capita consumption for a given growth rate). For free market economies the criterion is taken to be in terms of profit-rate maximization for a given real wage or its reverse.Using these criteria the investment-consumption frontiers or wage-profit frontiers are described in this paper by corresponding equations. The changes in terms of trade are then interpreted as various forms of technical progress. The equations are also depicted forthe case of thriftiness of entrepreneurs being less than unity.     

香港制造业升级的障碍分析

本文探讨了近年香港制造业升级困难的两个主要原因:大陆的无限廉价劳动力的利用和自由放任的经济政策。由此给出建议:适当的政府干预必不可少。     

Profits as a rich source of puzzlement

Summary Profits are both a strategic and a little understood income category. Theoretical approaches differ widely. The author says that many different answers are given to at least seven questions: What is meant by profits? What is the level of profits in a given country, say, the Netherlands? Does a profit squeeze exist? What determines profits? Which variables are determined by profits? How should profits be handled in model-building? How can a government influence profits? In surveying some of the answers to these seven questions the author criticizes Wood's theory and discusses the concept of normal profits.Thanks are due to K. Sybesma (CPB), P. G. Hermans (CBS), J. Weitenberg (CPB), M. Edam and J. Griffiths (Law School, Groningen) for helpful comments and corrections and to E. Hoekstra for information retrieval and typing.     

Model instruments of efficient management in the area of resources

The article considers practical problems of working out strategies and programs for the socioeconomic development of the area of resources. An approach, which is based on a meaningful methodology of indicative planning, is proposed. Modeling tools are based on the problem of the path to sustainable development. Examples of such an approach are given for Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Krasnoyarsk krai, and Transbaikal region.     

Scale variable specification in a money demand function for Malaysia

We investigate what scale variable is most appropriate in the money demand function for Malaysia. Candidates include income, consumption, disposable income, and domestic absorption and these are considered for simple sum M1 and M2 and for Divisia M1 and M2. Non-nested tests and other model selection criteria such as R² are used. The non-nested tests for the M1 aggregates are inconclusive but more support is given for income as the scale variable for the M2 aggregates, especially for Divisia M2. The other procedures also show that income is preferred for M2 and some support is also given for income for the M1 aggregates.     

秸秆成型燃料技术规模化推广的政策建议

通过对秸秆成型燃料技术规模化推广的可行性分析，对我国秸秆成型燃料技术现状进行了简要的介绍，提出了该项技术已经到了可以产业化推广的阶段；分析了该项技术在推广中的一些障碍，并对在农村推广中的问题进行研究，提出了政策建议。     

A Comparison of Dividend,Cash Flow,and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation*

Standard formulas for valuing the equity of going concerns require forecasting payoffs to infinity but practical analysis requires that payoffs be forecasted over finite horizons. This truncation inevitably involves often-troublesome terminal value calculations. This paper contrasts dividend discount techniques, discounted cash flow analysis, and techniques based on accrual earnings when each is applied with finite-horizon forecasts. Valuations based on average ex post payoffs over various horizons, with and without terminal value calculations, are compared with ex ante market prices to discover the error introduced by each technique in truncating the horizon. Valuation errors are lower using accrual earnings techniques rather than cash flow and dividend discounting techniques. The accounting features that make a given technique less than ideal for finite horizon analysis are also detailed. Conditions where a given technique requires particularly long forecasting horizons are identified and the performance of the alternative techniques under those conditions is examined.     

Accuracy of Relative Weights on Multiple Leading Performance Measures: Effects on Managerial Performance and Knowledge

Many firms that use multiple lead measures in their performance measurement systems do not validate the causal model linking these measures to future financial outcomes, and the cause‐and‐effect relationships in the model are often left to subjective estimates that may be prone to errors. Using an experiment, this study examines how the accuracy of assumptions about the relative importance of lead measures in a causal model affects managerial performance and knowledge, when managers are given the opportunity to learn over multiple periods. The results show that having inaccurate relative weights on lead measures improves performance, reduces performance variability, and enhances knowledge, relative to not having any weights. Furthermore, performance is similar under accurate versus inaccurate relative weights, whereas knowledge is better under inaccurate than accurate relative weights, providing no support for the biasing effects of inaccurate relative weights. The findings suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, managers benefit even if they are given inaccurate relative weights on lead measures, and they are able to correct those inaccuracies to reach a comparable level of performance and knowledge as if they had been given accurate relative weights.     

Involvement of savings in the economy and development of reproduction processes in the Russian Federation

The article considers the reproductive aspect of Russia??s investment development. A characteristic of the completeness of use of investment resources is given, and the reasons that limit the accumulation of capital in the country are indicated. The basic mechanisms that provide investment growth in industries and opportunities for improvement are considered.     

Subsidizing Non-Polluting Goods vs. Taxing Polluting Goods for Pollution Reduction

Pigovian taxes on polluters are politically unpopular, but subsidies for non-polluting sources are politically attractive. This paper presents a linear demand and supply model and numerical example to explore the trade-offs between taxing polluting sources of a good versus subsidizing non-polluting sources of the same good. While the model (along with the associated numerical example) shows the optimality of Pigovian taxes, it also shows how much welfare is reduced if subsidies for nonpolluters are employed instead. Further, it shows the optimal tax, given any level of subsidy and the optimal subsidy, given any level of tax.     

The organizational and legal mechanism of control of the insolvency and bankruptcy institution as an economic growth factor

The legal and organizational mechanism of regulating the bankruptcy and insolvency institution in Russia is considered, as is its specifics and its impact on the efficiency of the economic system as a whole. The practical administration of bankruptcy legislation is assessed and some recommendations are given aimed at the further improvement in the mechanisms for crisis management of insolvent companies.     

Role of large companies in Russia’s oil and gas complex

The purpose of this article is to reconsider the interaction between major oil and gas companies and the state, which is especially important for modern Russia given its current conditions. General theoretical approaches are presented, as well as calculations of price and financial indicators reflecting the performance of these companies.     

On the complex estimate of the quality level of budgetary services

This paper analyzes the modern methodical base for estimating the quality of budgetary services. The classification of the existing methods based on the resource-process-resultant concept of quality is given. Methods are stated for estimating the quality of budgetary services based on applying the expert, formal, and combinational approaches. The methods were tested using the example of higher education services in Bashkortostan.     

语用学框架下的指示语用法研究概述

指示语作为一种语用现象,传统上是在语用学框架内通过其在言语事件中的功能以及其他相关参数来研究的。这样,就产生了很多问题,而其中一些也仅仅被视作特殊的语言现象而没有令人满意的解释。指示语的认知分析可以解决此类问题。     

Comparing the welfare effects of income and excise taxes in the presence of the other taxation paradox

This paper implements numerically a general equilibrium model in which all private producers are price makers and the government utilizes tax revenues to provide a public good. After deriving the partial equilibrium condition for an excise tax to increase price by more than the tax (for a monopoly firm), numerical examples are given, demonstrating this phenomenon for both partial and general equilibrium. In the general equilibrium context, optimal excise taxation and optimal flat-rate income taxation are compared. In the excise tax regime, prices increase by more than the taxes. In the income tax regime, prices actually decline relative to the no-tax regime. In all of the examples given, flat-rate income taxation is superior to excise taxation in terms of welfare. The author has benefitted from exceptionally helpful comments received from J. Ronnie Davis, John D. Wilson, Ralph W. Pfouts, and Amy Crews. He has also benefitted from conversations with Franz Gehrels, David E. Wildasin, Herbert J. Kiesling, and Harold York. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Analysis of the Impact of Scientific and Technical Development on Economic Growth Using Input−Output Balance Tools

The article analyzes problems of measuring the level of technological development of the economy. A review of methods for measuring technological progress and derived estimates of the impact of technological development on economic growth is given. Input?output balance tools are considered, on which basis a structural cost analysis in the Russian economy is performed and alternative estimates of impact of technological changes on economic growth, including by type of economic activity, are assessed.     

The Rise (and Decline?) of Arab Aid: Generosity and Allocation in the Oil Era

Among non-DAC donors, wealthy Arab states are some of the most prolific contributors of foreign aid. Despite this, relatively little is known about Arab foreign aid. The OECD development database offers a paucity of information, aggregating data for “Arab countries” and “Arab agencies,” without identifying the constituent units of either. A further complication is that Arab donors are not uniformly transparent about their aid efforts, publicizing some of them while keeping other donations secret. In this paper, we advance the state of knowledge of Arab foreign aid in a number of ways. We use AidData to document the trends in reported donations from specific bilateral donors (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and multilateral agencies (Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa, OPEC’s Fund for International Development, and the Islamic Development Bank). Notably, Arab bilateral donors have given less generously over time with aid levels remaining relatively stable despite skyrocketing national wealth. We explore reasons for this decline, including that Arab donors have: shifted their giving from bilateral to multilateral channels, given less as DAC donors have given more, and increased domestic spending at the expense of foreign aid with a view to safeguarding regime security. In addition, we look at the sectoral allocations of Arab bilateral and multilateral organizations, and compare the aid practices of Arab donors to their DAC counterparts. Finally, we suggest why an exclusive focus on aid commitments is problematic where Arab aid is concerned.     

一个新的远期利率曲线参数模型

本文在Bjork and Christensen（1999）的基础上，进一步研究了远期利率曲线与利率动态模型具有一致性的充分必要条件，论证了广泛采用的Nelson-Siegel模型与Ho—Lee、Hull—White、HJM等无套利模型的不一致性，提出了一个与这类无套利模型相一致的新的远期利率曲线参数模型，实证研究表明，这个一致性远期利率曲线在收益率曲线的横截面拟合方面与Nelson—Siegel模型具有十分相似的良好表现，可应用于无套利模型校准、利率衍生品定价和货币政策分析等方面。     

Necessary conditions for the modernization of the Russian processing industry on the example of the heavy engineering industry

The necessity of a state policy for the modernization of the heavy engineering sector for the purpose of equalizing the competitive conditions for national and foreign manufacturers is substantiated in the paper. A strategy for the recovery of the Russian heavy engineering industry is offered based on the world experience of support of national products and their promotion in foreign markets. Predictive estimates of the possible development of the industry up to 2020 are given.