Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment Determinants in Russian Regions

Using a spatial autoregressive model of cross‐sectional and panel data, we study the determinants and dominant strategies of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Russia before and after the 1998 financial crisis. The important determinants of FDI inflows into Russian regions since the start of transition appear to be market size, the presence of large cities and sea ports, oil and gas availability, proximity to European market, and political and legislative risks. Since 1998, it appears the importance of big cities, the Sakhalin region, oil and gas resources, proximity to European markets, and legislation and political risks has increased. Our results also reveal a shift from horizontal FDI strategy to vertical FDI strategy in the post‐crisis period. Using a multiple spatial lags approach, we show that neighbouring port‐endowed regions tend to have emerged in the post‐crisis era as competitors for FDI.     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

中国吸引外资对东南亚国家吸引外资影响的实证研究

中国吸引外资的浪潮引起了人们普遍的忧虑,中国吸引外资是否会导致流入东南亚国家的外资逐渐减少。本文在假定外资的供应是有弹性的前提下,利用对外投资区位决定因素的模型和固定效应分析方法来检验中国吸引外资与东南亚经济体吸引外资间的关系。结果显示在1986年至2001年间,中国吸引外资的增长实际上提高了邻国经济吸引外资的能力,而不是排挤了邻国外资的流入。     

Does good governance matter for FDI inflows? Evidence from Asian economies

This paper examines the effects of the six components of good governance on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 15 Asian economies for the period 1996–2007 using a fixed effect model for panel data with heteroskedasticity corrected standard errors. The study also employs the feasible general least square (FGLS) and Prais-Winstein panel estimation methods in order to check the consistency of the results with the fixed effect model. The empirical results reveal that of the six components of good governance, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption are the key determinants of FDI inflows, as they exhibit consistent results under different models. However, the study finds no significant evidence with voice and accountability and regulatory quality in FDI inflows. The study reveals that human capital, infrastructure, lending rate, and GDP growth rate also have a significant influence on FDI inflows. We conclude that a country which can enhance its governance environment in general is likely to attract more foreign direct investment despite offsetting deficiencies in other dimensions of good governance such as voice and accountability and regulatory quality.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows,Economic Growth,and Trade Balances: The Experience of the New Members of the European Union

The study examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and trade balances of 10 emerging economies in Europe before they joined the European Union. This article uses the Granger causality test to investigate the link between FDI inflows and economic growth for the countries under study. The findings show that gross domestic product growth has a unilateral Granger-cause on FDI inflows for 9 of 10 emerging European economies. However, the results did not show FDI inflows Granger-causing the changes in economic growth of any of the 10 countries. Furthermore, FDI inflows had no or negative effects on trade balances of the majority of the emerging European nations. The policy implications of this study are that host governments in emerging economies must carefully evaluate spillover effects of FDI inflows on their economies before offering significant incentive packages to lure multinational enterprises into their countries.     

AN OVERINVESTMENT CYCLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE?

Prior to the Asian crisis, easy liquidity conditions contributed to credit expansion and overinvestment in the East Asian economies until they were hit by a deep recession. Similarly to the developments in the tiger economies in the 1990s, Central and Eastern European (CEE) grew rapidly from 2001 to 2007, due to foreign capital inflows. But the current global financial turmoil and economic downswing pulled the CEE economies into the maelstrom of the crisis. With the Asian experience in mind, the aim of this paper is to analyze whether overinvestment due to easy liquidity conditions possibly emerged and contributed to the crisis in CEE.     

中国FDI激增对东南亚FDI的影响:基于1986-2001年板面数据的分析

近几年来,针对中国对外直接投资流入量激增这一现象,有些学者认为其挤占了东南亚经济体的投资。本文采用固定因素估计量,运用FDI区位决定因素模型来测算中国FDI与东南亚经济体FDI之间的关系。结果表明,1986-2001年间中国是提高而不是分流了其邻国的FDI。     

Revisiting FDI-led growth hypothesis: the role of sector characteristics

Does foreign direct investment (FDI) lead to higher growth? What type of FDI really works? In this paper, we disaggregate FDIs based on their technological characteristics and investigate which kind of FDI leads to output growth. The results for the sample of OECD countries during the period 1985–2012 indicate that FDI inflows to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (ICT-based), non-ICT using and producing manufacturing and service sectors (non-ICT-based) and other sectors (non-ICT-other) play no role in contributing to economic growth. However, we provide evidence that absorptive capacities of host countries work through ICT-based FDI inflows. Only if the host countries have sufficient level of human capital, financial resources and technological infrastructure, ICT-based FDI will foster economic growth. The results are robust to controlling missing values, studying the subsample of emerging market economies and consideration of endogeneity.     

Determinants of workers’ remittances: An empirical investigation for a panel of eleven developing Asian economies

We explore the key motives of migrant workers’ remittances from abroad for 11 major Asian migrant‐sending countries. Using panel regressions, we find that relative higher growth rate, interest rate and capital market returns of home over the host, investment, financial deepening at home have significant impact on remittance inflows into Asia, along with higher per capita incomes and international crude oil prices. With incorporation of per capita incomes and lagged impact of remittances, we observe an emergence of consumption motives to remit. Therefore, we conclude that both investment and altruistic motives are the driving forces for remittances inflows into the Asian economies.     

Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America

The nexus of real exchange rate (RER) and capital inflows is examined through a comparative analysis of the experiences of emerging market economies in Asian and Latin America during the period 1985‐2000. It is found that the degree of appreciation in RER associated with capital inflow is uniformly much higher in Latin American countries compared to their Asian counterparts, despite the fact that the latter experienced far greater foreign capital inflows relative to the size of the economy. The econometric evidence suggests that both the composition of capital flows and differences in the degree of response of RER to capital flows matter in explaining these contrasting experiences. While RER appreciation is a phenomenon predominantly associated with other (non‐FDI) forms of capital inflows (OCFW), a given level of OCFW brings about a far greater degree of appreciation of the real exchange rate in Latin America where the importance of these flows in total capital inflow is also far greater. On the policy front, Asian countries seem to have used fiscal contraction and nominal exchange rate adjustment more effectively to cushion the RER against the appreciation pressure of capital inflows. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that sterilised intervention can generate a lasting impact on the real exchange rate.     

Determinants of FDI inflows to Arab economies

The paper studies location determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) to 16 Arab economies over the period from 1984 to 2012, by employing Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond linear dynamic panel data estimation. We find that market size, trade openness, preferential trade agreements and financial development have significant positive impact on FDI inflows to Arab economies. FDI in Arab economies appears to be resource seeking since the total oil supply variable is positive and significant. The paper finds that better institutions and educated labour force may play a key role in attracting FDI inflows. We suggest that Arab economies should sequence their economic policy measures with the institutional ones, beginning with a focus on privatization and trade liberalization, and subsequently shift to improvement in economic growth.     

De-industrialisation,comparative economic performance and FDI inflows in emerging economies

We address calls to incorporate comparative political economy considerations into IB scholarship. In particular, we conceptualise and test empirically the hitherto unexplored relationship between de-industrialisation and relative performance of groups of countries, and FDI inflows in emerging economies. Using a panel dataset over the period 1996–2004 and employing conceptual and methodological innovations (not least the use of comparative independent variables), we find support for the ideas that relative de-industrialisation of developed economies will increase FDI inflows into emerging economies, while the relative under-performance of developed countries will reduce it. We also find that divergence in business cycles-de-coupling between the two groups of countries fosters FDI inflows in emerging economies. These help explain and predict recent changes in the global business landscape and inform public policy and managerial practice.     

Trade Policies in Southeast Asia in the Wider Asian Perspective

This paper takes stock of trade policies in Southeast Asia after the Asian crisis and in the wake of the current global economic crisis. It compares trade policies in individual Southeast Asian countries; places them in the context of regional and global economic integration; and particularly draws implications for the region from the rise of China and India. The first section looks at recent trade and FDI patterns in Southeast Asia. Then follows an overview of key trade‐policy trends, in the region overall and in individual countries. The next sections examine ASEAN countries in international trade negotiations and agreements: first in the WTO, especially in the Doha Round; then within ASEAN; and finally on cross‐regional FTAs. The paper concludes that ASEAN countries cannot rely on external tracks ‘from above’ for meaningful trade policy reform. Since the Asian crisis there has been a slowdown of reform momentum, and too much reliance on trade negotiations – especially FTAs. Rather, countries in the region have to rely on themselves –‘from below’ as it were. The engine of liberalisation and regulatory reform has to be home‐driven – as it was before the Asian crisis – with governments taking unilateral measures in response to internal and external conditions.     

Economic growth,trade and capital flows: A causal analysis of post-liberalised South Africa

Development Finance and EconometricsThis paper investigates the causal relationships between trade, capital inflows and economic growth in post-liberalised South Africa over the period from 1995 to 2011. The results show that economic growth in South Africa is driven primarily by trade and fixed investment rather than by capital inflows. However, the relationship between economic growth and imports is bidirectional, and thus economic growth in South Africa is associated to a greater extent with the export-led growth hypothesis than the import-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the results find in favour of growth-led FDI rather than FDI-led growth, and that portfolio inflows rather than FDI are integrated into the country's trade-led growth dynamics.     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).     

Economic and Political Determinants of the Effects of FDI on Growth in Transition and Developing Countries

This study investigates the role of human capital and political development in determining the magnitude of the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth for a panel of 61 transition and developing countries for the period 1989 to 2013. A baseline growth model incorporating these variables is tested and then extended to include FDI interaction effects with human capital (measured using secondary school enrollment data) and political development (based on Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index scores). These growth interaction effects between FDI and human capital vary according to regime type. Political development in conjunction with FDI appears to suppress the effects of FDI on growth in authoritarian countries while enhancing them in hybrid democracies. For more democratic countries, domestic investment is a more important driver of growth. The effects of FDI on growth in the ten transition economies included in the sample data set are found to be insignificant. Although this result might seem to differ from a priori expectations, it is in line with the findings of most earlier studies that cover the period up to 2004. The paper also provides no strong evidence that a critical threshold of human capital is required to generate beneficial spillover growth effects from inflows of FDI. The paper provides new and more detailed insights into the effects of FDI on growth with particular respect to human capital and political regime covering a large number of transition and developing countries based on an up‐to‐date data set covering a 25‐year period to 2013. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Lessons for African Economies from Irish and East Asian Industrial Policy

When comparisons in terms of industrial policy lessons to be learned have taken place, it has tended to be solely vis-a-vis the ‘development state’ East Asian experience. This paper broadens the analysis and considers lessons which African countries can learn from other so-called ‘tiger’ economies including Ireland and the East and South Asian countries. We recognise that the latter are indeed clearly significant as many African countries at the time of independence had economic structures and levels of income quite similar to East Asian countries, yet have grown at vastly different rates since then. Exploring why this has been the case can thus offer important insights into possibilities for industrial policy. Yet this comes with some health warnings over East Asian experience. We suggest that another important contribution can come by looking at the Irish example, given its emphasis on corporatism rather than simply relying on state direction in the operation of industrial policy. The Irish model is also more democratic in some senses and has protected workers’ rights during the development process in contrast to the often highly dirigisite East Asian model. Overall we suggest that some immediate actions are needed, notably with regard to the financial system in small African economies. Without such changes, a poorly functioning financial system will continue to keep investment at low levels. In relation to the small size of the African economies, the paper recommends regional integration and sufficient overseas development assistance (ODA) for infrastructural development. It is also critical to note that the various small African economies each face their own industrial and economic development challenges, and that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not appropriate; rather the key is to tailor policies and systems to the unique opportunities and development challenges in each African country.     

East Asian FDI and the political economy of local development

This article situates the experience of the North East region within the context of the debates concerning East Asian FDI and the political economy of local development. The analysis looks in detail at the Sedgefield Borough economy to offer a more critical reading of the role of East Asian FDI in local economic development. The study concludes that East Asian FDI is a small but significant segment of the local economy which reveals evidence of some ‘leading edge’ developments in particular areas in tandem with a recurrence of the structural characteristics reminiscent of previous ‘branch plant’ investments. The conclusions for the business support network concern the need to change the focus and apparent control over the local economic development strategy and to forge strong links to the agenda of more active regional institutions and policy being promoted by the current Labour government.