The Effect of Aggregation Bias: An NTB‐modelling Analysis of Turkey's Agro‐food Trade with the EU

We explore how different data aggregation levels affect the gravity estimates of non‐tariff barriers (NTBs) in the agro‐food sector, and we examine their related impacts on policy simulations of an expansion to the European Union (EU) that would include Turkey. We calculate two sets of ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of NTBs using the gravity approach to disaggregated and aggregated Central Product Classification data for 15 Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) agro‐food sectors. We find that the AVEs of NTBs vary substantially across products and that using aggregated data primarily results in greater effects of NTBs. In a second step, we incorporate the AVEs of NTBs into the GTAP model to evaluate Turkey's EU membership and conclude that aggregation bias has considerable effects on both the estimation of NTBs and the general equilibrium simulation results. Utilising different data aggregation levels leads to a great variability of trade costs of NTBs and, hence, to misleading trade and welfare effects.     

The Trade Effects of the EU–Turkey Customs Union

In the present study we argue that the salient features of both the EU‐15 countries and Turkey are conducive to making the effects of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union asymmetric among the incumbent EU countries. In order to support our argument we rely on a model in which trade involves the exchange of vertically differentiated products. This model generates the prediction that the more contiguous an incumbent country is to the joining country in terms of technological sophistication, the larger will be the crowding out of this country's exports to the other incumbent countries as a result of the CU expansion. Using a gravity model we estimate the effects of the customs union between Turkey and the EU‐15 by differentiating between exports from (a) lower‐technology EU‐15 countries (we term this group of countries ‘South’) to higher‐technology EU‐15 countries (the ‘North’), (b) North to South, (c) South to Turkey, (d) North to Turkey, and (e) Turkey to EU‐15. Our econometric results indicate that, in contrast to North's exports to the other EU‐15 countries (which have remained intact), the Southern countries’ exports to the other EU‐15 countries have declined as a result of the CU. Moreover, the extra penetration of the Turkish market by the EU‐15 countries has not been more favourable to the Southern group.     

Turkey: Trade Policy Review

The purpose of the paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2003. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey's trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy emphasising the measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper points out that agriculture is highly protected, and that autonomous reforms have been implemented in some of the services sectors of the economy. Since joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation – the acquis communautaire– in all areas, Turkey needs to liberalise its agricultural and services sectors further. Finally, the paper discusses an issue that has largely been neglected in Trade Policy Reviews. It is the sustainability of current account. The paper stresses that Turkey needs to pay close attention to the sustainability of the current account.     

Turkey: Toward EU Accession

The purpose of this paper is to study selected aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Joining the EU will require that Turkey attains macroeconomic stability, adopts the Common Agricultural Policy, and liberalizes its services and network industries. Furthermore, joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation and standards – the acquis communautaire. According to the EU membership criteria, new members must be able to demonstrate the ‘ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union’. Thus Turkey will be expected to adopt the euro when it is ready to do so, but not immediately upon accession. Integration will boost allocative efficiency in the Turkish economy which in turn will make the country a better place to invest. Furthermore, Turkey will reap the benefits from monetary integration and from migration of labour to the EU. But the welfare gains will have a price, and the price will be the adjustment costs associated with the adoption of the acquis communautaire. The final section of the paper considers the effects of accession on the EU in terms of migration and budgetary effects.     

An Analysis of Mercosur's Regional Trading Arrangements

After six years of stop‐start negotiations, Mercosur is no closer to signing a regional trading agreement (RTA) with the EU, whilst negotiations to finalise a Free Trade of the Americas Agreement (FTAA) have also stalled. This is due to various factors: economic crises in Mercosur, intransigence by member countries and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Doha Round. Estimates from the trade literature predict welfare gains to Mercosur from both RTAs whilst only one study assesses the additional benefits of removing non‐tariff barrier (NTB) trade costs which have remained largely unchallenged within the multilateral forum. In this paper, we improve the treatment of NTB estimates employing a theoretically consistent gravity specification, where calculated tariff‐equivalent estimates are subsequently implemented into a modified computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Relative to a realistic baseline, and incorporating trade‐induced productivity and capital accumulation effects, we reassess the benefits of both regional initiatives to Mercosur, revisiting the claim that NTB trade cost abolition doubles the ‘standard’ welfare estimates. Contrary to previous studies, the results suggest that an FTAA yields greater gains to Mercosur than an EU RTA whilst the claim of Monteagudo and Watanuki (2003 ) pertaining to trade cost elimination is understated.     

Turkey: Trade Policy Review, 2007

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2007. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey’s trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy under the headings of measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper notes that the formation of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union has contributed to a significant increase in the contestability of domestic markets through infusing predictability, transparency and stability to trade policy as well as by liberalising market access. But free trade in industrial goods between Turkey and the EU could still not be established mainly because of non‐tariff barriers and in particular because of the various problems faced in the elimination of technical barriers to trade (TBT). The final section of the paper discusses first the role of standards and conformity assessment in general terms and thereafter evaluates critically the Turkish approach to elimination of TBTs.     

The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model

This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results.     

Tariff Preferences,WTO Negotiations and the LDCs: The Case of the ‘Everything But Arms’ Initiative

By assessing the impact of the recently adopted ‘Everything But Arms’ (EBA) initiative of the EU on the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and by showing how further multilateral trade liberalisations erode the EBA preferences and impact the LDCs, this paper attempts to uncover the LDCs’ difficult positions in the WTO trade negotiations. Due to its limited product coverage and previous preferences granted by the EU, welfare impacts of the EBA on the LDCs are shown to be small and the bulk of these gains are associated with the ‘sensitive’ products that are subject to gradual liberalisations. Moreover, these small gains are likely to disappear if the EU conducts trade policy reforms in fulfilling its WTO obligations, resulting in an actually worse‐off situation for the LDCs. Extending the analysis to a multilateral trade liberalisation scenario reinforces the above results that the LDCs may well lose due to preference erosion and higher world market prices. It concludes that other development assistance measures from developed countries should be made available to the LDCs to ease their dependency on trade preferences and to foster their supply capacities. The LDCs themselves should attempt to integrate the duty and quota‐free market access status contained in the EBA into a binding WTO agreement to secure a stable trading environment. But more importantly, in order to solve the difficulties at the root these countries should actively engage in reforming their own trade policies.     

Agricultural Policies and Trade Paths in Turkey

In 1959, shortly after the European Economic Community was founded under the 1957 Treaty of Rome, Turkey applied for Associate Membership of the then six‐member common market. By 1963, a path for integrating the economies of Turkey and the eventual European Union had been mapped. As with many trade agreements, agriculture posed difficult political hurdles, which were never fully cleared, even as trade barriers to other sectors were eventually removed and a Customs Union formed. In this paper, we trace the influences the Turkey‐EU economic institutions have had on agricultural policies and the agricultural sector. Using an applied general equilibrium framework we provide estimates of what including agriculture under the Customs Union would mean for the sector and the economy. We also discuss the implications of fully aligning Turkey's agricultural policies with the EU's Common Agricultural Policy, as would be required under full membership.     

The Motor Industry in an Enlarged EU

The motor industry in the ‘First Fifteen’ EU makes an enormous contribution to its economic prosperity. This is manifest in the scale of employment, output, investment, international trade and technological change. The enlargement of the EU will see the full integration of the auto sector in the accession countries with the activities in the West to reinforce its already massive scale. The nature of optimum size and the importance of economies of scale creates a bias to bigness in vehicle manufacture. Hence, the auto industry in the accession countries consists largely of the local operations of transnational companies. As car demand is income elastic the level of sales in the accession countries is relatively small but as the economies expand the potential is enormous. This, together with non‐scaler advantages such as low wage rates, has attracted considerable investment by vehicle firms in the last fifteen years into the accession countries. Various tariff reduction agreements have meant that integration of the East Central European motor industry with Western operations has pre‐dated the current formal enlargement of the EU. The countries that have done particularly well in attracting automotive investment have been Poland, the Czech Republic and, particularly, Slovakia. The recent history of the auto sector in the accession countries has not been without its problems. The collapse of the command economies saw disruption in the market and the decline of the local indigenous car makers. Subsequently this was more than offset by new inward investment. There has been no revival of the local commercial vehicle industry and further restructuring can be expected. The long‐term survival of the auto component sector in the accession countries will depend on how the sector responds to the competitive challenges of free trade and enlargement. However, there are signs that significant high value‐added activities such as vehicle design and development, will be sustainable in East Central Europe. The motor industry in the accession countries will face its own challenges, not least the tendency of the industry to anticipate formal integration. This time it will mean expansion into Eastern Europe. Hence, whilst the location of vehicle plants in the accession countries challenges the traditional centres of manufacture in the West, including ‘the periphery’, in turn they must be alert to even newer competition elsewhere.     

From the Soviet Union to the European Union: Estonian Trade Policy, 1991–2000

This paper examines the political economy of Estonian trade policy in the 1990s. Estonia is a unique case in the world economy, in that the country rapidly implemented unilateral free trade after regaining independence and sustained it right through the 1990s. We analyse the circumstances, interests, ideas and institutions that have shaped Estonian trade policy during the past decade. Our stress is on institutions, particularly the national decision‐making setting for trade policy. Through this prism we try to understand how a free trade regime was implemented and sustained, and what this experience suggests for the feasibility of tree trade elsewhere. We also look at the increasingly ‘multi‐track’ nature of Estonian trade policy through bilateral free trade agreements, WTO accession and, especially, the movement towards EU accession. Although the other trade policy tracks to some extent provide a lockin for unilateral reforms, we argue that EU accession is undermining the simple, classical liberal trade policy regime that existed during the 1990s.     

EU Enlargement and the Portuguese Economy

The main focus of the present paper is on the emerging and likely future trade effects of enlargement. Though our particular concern is with Portugal, we set the scene by comparing the trade structures of the 10 countries of Central and Eastern Europe (i.e. the eight CEE accession states plus Bulgaria and Romania) – including an analysis of the individual cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – with those of the EU15 as a whole, and with those of the 4 EU cohesion countries. The elimination of trade barriers between incumbents and accession states will have two trade‐related effects on EU incumbents: an increase in bilateral flows with the CEEC and a shift effect as the CEEC displace some incumbent exports to EU markets. The first effect is likely to be strongest for those incumbents for which there is a strong overlap between their export structure and the import structure of the CEEC. Portugal emerges as one of the economies with the least overlap. The displacement effect, we conclude, is likely to be particularly strong in the case of Portugal, given the high degree of similarity between Portuguese exports and those of the CEEC. Portugal appears to be ‘being squeezed from below’ in that, for the majority of its traditional export sectors, the CEEC became progressively more competitive during the second half of the 1990's. Portuguese specialisation was increasingly confined to low‐technology, low‐added‐value sectors with declining demand, as strong FDI inflows to the CEEC led to an increasing preponderance of more dynamic sectors in their export structures. Thus, Portugal is also being squeezed from above. This suggests that there may be substantial industrial disruption, in response to which labour‐market flexibility and dynamic entrepreneurial response is crucial. Intersectoral mobility is generally easier the more highly educated the workforce – an indicator on which Portugal scores poorly. The Portuguese labour market, however, displays a high degree of flexibility, consistent with its long lasting low rate of unemployment. Continued flexibility will help minimise these likely adjustment costs. Besides the trade and industry effects, other topics considered in the paper include the implications of enlargement for Portugal's ability to attract FDI, the likely consequences for Portugal of inward migration from the CEEC to the EU, and the implications of enlargement for Portugal's budgetary relations with the rest of the EU.     

Computational Analysis of the Menu of US‐Japan Trade Policies

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of US‐Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential US and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers and global (multilateral) free trade. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalisation. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on non‐member countries for some of the FTAs analysed. In comparison to the welfare gains from the US and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalisation by the United States, Japan and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The US and Japan FTAs are based on ‘hub’ and ‘spoke’ arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.     

European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade

This paper examines the impact of two European Union (EU) market access regulations in the food sector presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export food products to the EU. We analysed EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non‐tariff measure in the form of a minimum entry price regulation, which aims to protect EU growers of certain fruits and vegetables against international competition. Analysis was based on Africa's exports of tomatoes, oranges, and lime and lemon to the EU between 2008 and 2013, using the gravity model of trade. Our results show that EU market access conditions constitute significant barrier to the formation of new trade relation between the EU and Africa. In addition, initiation of trade relationships is contingent not only on market access conditions but also on domestic market constraints in Africa. These results imply that negotiating preferential entry prices duties and the removal of domestic market restraints as well as strengthening domestic capacity to comply with EU standards to enhance continuous market access for the continent could stimulate food trade along the extensive margin.     

Does EU Enlargement Increase Agro‐Food Export Duration?

This paper examines the impact of EU enlargement on agro‐food export performance across 12 new EU member states and five newly independent states in the EU markets covering the period 1999 to 2007. The performance is examined by duration of export and hazard model. We find larger duration for the agro‐food exports from the new EU member states. The results confirm gains from the eastward EU enlargement and governance on export increases and longer duration for exporting higher value‐added specialized consumer‐ready food and more competitive niche agro‐food products.     

Understanding Developing Country Strategic Responses to the Enhancement of Food Safety Standards

This paper explores the competing concepts of ‘standards as barriers’ and ‘standards as catalysts’ in the context of food safety standards in international trade in agricultural and food products. Through a review of existing evidence of the impact of food safety standards on developing country exports of agricultural and food products and the results of a series of country‐ and product‐specific case studies, it is suggested that food safety standards can act as both a barrier to trade and the basis of competitive positioning for developing countries in international markets. This suggests that broad conclusions about the trade effects of food safety standards on developing countries are problematic, rather the level and ways in which agricultural and food exports are impacted can be product, country, standard and even firm‐specific.     

How to Balance the Outcomes of the Economic Partnership Agreements for Sub‐Saharan African Economies?

Since 2002, the Sub‐Saharan African countries ( except South Africa which already has a free‐trade agreement with the EU ) have embarked on free‐trade agreement negotiations with the European Union. These arrangements will replace the Cotonou scheme, which requires these countries to eliminate their tariffs on ‘substantially’ all their European imports. Based on a general equilibrium analysis, this study estimates the potential effects of these agreements by considering different levels of reciprocity in the commitments of the Sub‐Saharan African countries. It shows that the ‘standard’ EU proposal, whereby Sub‐Saharan African countries would cut tariffs on 80 per cent of their European imports, would not be enough to balance the outcome of the Economic Partnership Agreements. As a result of the asymmetries between European and African protections and supply‐side capacities, African countries could experience a balance of trade deficit of USD 1.8 billion associated with a 0.1 per cent decrease in GDP. This proposal, which also induces an industrial restructuring to the benefit of the agro‐processing industries, will create a significant fiscal burden. A lesser level of commitment could largely mitigate these unfavourable results; by reciprocating tariff eliminations on only 60 per cent of their European imports, African countries would reduce the trade imbalance and fiscal losses induced by these agreements by 21 and 51 per cent respectively.     

Telecommunications Policy Reform in Turkey

This paper, considering the economic effects of liberalisation in the telecommunications sector on the Turkish economy, makes use of the empirical studies on the linkages between regulatory regimes and telecommunications prices. Since Turkey is trying to liberalise the telecommunications sector by following the EU approach to liberalisation, the paper considers briefly the regulatory regimes in the telecommunications sectors of the EU and Turkey, determines the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to the telecommunications services sector in Turkey, and derives estimates of the welfare effects of adopting the EU rules and regulations in the Turkish telecommunications sector. It shows that there is tremendous scope for Turkey to benefit from adopting and implementing the legislative, regulatory and institutional framework of the EU telecommunications sector.     

The Compatibility of EU Biofuel Policies with Global Sustainability and the WTO

The EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28) requires that by 2020, biofuels should account for at least 10 per cent of transport fuel consumption. EU legislation sets out sustainability criteria for biofuels to qualify for this target and procedures for verifying that they are met. Using the AGLINK‐COSIMO model, we investigate the impacts of the biofuel target on global trade flows and land use, both under the current biofuel tariff regime and assuming zero EU tariffs for biofuels. The EU’s 2020 transport fuel target increases the global area of agricultural crops by 0.9 per cent. With zero tariffs, the extra global land requirement is 21 per cent smaller, but a larger share of it falls outside the EU. This outcome sharpens the issue of how the EU’s unilateral sustainability criteria can be implemented given current international trade rules.     

Who in Brazil Will Gain from Global Trade Reforms?

The potential impacts of multilateral trade liberalisation on developing countries are the subject of numerous controversies. One particular concern is that Brazil, a major agricultural exporter and a country with one of the world's most unequal income distributions, will reap a substantial share of the potential benefits to developing countries from agricultural trade reform, and that most of those benefits will go to large‐scale commercial farmers rather than to the country's smallholders. This claim is explored via a global general equilibrium model and a national model of Brazil containing multiple agricultural and non‐agricultural households. Brazil is found to account for nearly one‐half of all the benefits to developing countries deriving from global agricultural trade reform. These gains are associated with improvements in the welfare of each group and a lower incidence of poverty. Large‐scale producers gain more than smallholders as they tend to be relatively specialised in export products, but there are important gains to agricultural employees, who are relatively poor, and to urban households, who benefit from the expansion of the agro‐food sector. Overall, there is no discernible impact on income inequality, and no evidence that the gains to commercial farmers occur at the expense of poorer households.