Statistics of extreme events in risk management: The impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market

Given the growing need for managing financial risk and the recent global crisis, risk prediction is a crucial issue in banking and finance. In this paper, we show how recent advances in the statistical analysis of extreme events can provide solid methodological fundamentals for modeling extreme events. Our approach uses self-exciting marked point processes for estimating the tail of loss distributions. The main result is that the time between extreme events plays an important role in the statistical analysis of these events and could therefore be useful to forecast the size and intensity of future extreme events in financial markets. We illustrate this point by measuring the impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market in extenso, and briefly as a benchmark in the US stock market. With the help of our fitted models, we backtest the Value at Risk at various quantiles to assess the likeliness of different extreme movements on the DAX, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock market indices during the crisis. The results show that the proposed models provide accurate risk measures according to the Basel Committee and make better use of the available information.     

Breeding one's own sub-prime crisis: The labour market effects on financial system stability

Crisis may spread through economy via the propagating mechanisms of the labour market - households becoming delinquent due to an initial unemployment shock may be unable to continue servicing obligations versus the financial system. With large debts - e.g. mortgages - such defaults pose a threat to financial system stability. In this paper we use the Polish household budget surveys to simulate the impact of changes in the labour market status of household members on the ability of the household to service its mortgage payments. The simulation results are subsequently aggregated to facilitate a macro-level interpretation of the findings. We simulate various scenarios of labour market deterioration. Finally, we also introduce a policy instrument into the simulations providing, in a fiscally neutral manner, additional stability to the financial system. Based on robustness checks, the findings seem to be reliable. The results suggest that even with shares of debtors among consumers as low as in Poland, the propagation mechanism may indeed result in a considerable threat, while the fiscally neutral instrument is effective and well-suited to be addressed in providing additional stability to the financial system.     

The impact of the low income housing tax credit program on local schools

The low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) program has developed over two million rental homes for low-income households since 1986. The perception of deterioration in school quality has been a main reason for community opposition to LIHTC projects in middle- and upper-income areas. In this paper, we examine the impact of LIHTC projects on the nearby school performance using data on all LIHTC projects and elementary schools in Texas from the 2003–04 through 2008–09 academic years. We employ the longitudinal structure of the data to control for school fixed effects and estimate the relationship between the opening of nearby LIHTC on campus-level standardized test scores and performance ratings. We address the potential selection biases by controlling for preexisting trends in school performance prior to the study period. We find no robust evidence that the opening of LIHTC units negatively impacts the performance of nearby elementary schools.     

Volatility spillovers among the U.S. and Asian stock markets: A comparison between the periods of Asian currency crisis and subprime credit crisis

This paper examines the changing nature of volatility spillovers among the U.S. and eight East Asian stock markets between two financial crises: the Asian currency crisis and the U.S. subprime credit crisis. Our empirical results suggest that volatility is not always spilled over from the directly affected markets to surrounding markets in crisis periods. The East Asian markets who directly suffered from the Asian currency crisis are the ones to which volatility is spilled over from other markets during the Asian currency crisis period, whereas uni-directional volatility spillovers from the U.S. market to other markets are observed during both crisis periods. This difference can be explained by a pre-determined hierarchy in which volatility spillovers tend to start from the U.S. market regardless of the geographical origin of the crisis. Furthermore, our results reveal that the markets in three major Asian financial hubs, i.e., Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, are the markets to which volatility is spilled over uni-directionally from several other countries during the subprime credit crisis period, but not during the Asian currency crisis period. We attribute this difference to crisis-specific (currency or credit crisis), market-specific (credit derivatives market participation and foreign currency reserves), and time-specific (more integrated global market) factors.     

The effects of cash holdings on corporate performance during a credit crunch: evidence from the sub-prime mortgage crisis

We examine the effects of firms’ cash positions in moderating the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on corporate performance. We find that corporate performance significantly declines following the onset of the crisis. Firms with low cash reserves had the largest declines in performance following the onset of the financial crisis. However, we do not find any differences in performance decline following the onset of the crisis, when we compare financially constrained firms to financially unconstrained firms.     

Living on a plot of land as a tenure choice: The case of Panama

In this paper, we use analyze data from a survey of over thirteen hundred household housing-tenures in Panama. Our objective is to identify the features which determine whether households in a developing country such as Panama choose to rent or to buy housing properties, or alternatively to seek somewhat alternative tenure arrangements. In particular, we investigate the common characteristic of Panamanian households undertaking plot purchases with a view to future building. In order to analyze these alternative tenure arrangements we develop a series of log-linear models, in which dichotomous rent-versus-buy models are extended to include the possibility of plot purchasing with a view to future building. The extended models including plot purchases are seen to be superior to the dichotomous rent-versus-buy model in identifying which household characteristics are associated with particular housing-tenure decisions.     

我国公共租赁房运作模式的实践与探索——基于部分城市公共租赁房运行情况的比较分析

本文以北京、上海、杭州等公共租赁房起步较早的大中城市为研究对象,从公共租赁房的界定、投资主体、供应对象、房源筹集、资金渠道、租金管理、土地供应与政策支持、物业管理、准入与退出等9个方面进行剖析比较,总结这些城市在公共租赁房建设实施过程中的经验及存在的问题,探索有效的解决方法,以期为我国公共租赁房的进一步发展提供参考。     

经济适用房市场的问题与解决对策

经济适用房是国家为了解决城市中低收入者住房困难 ,采取减免地租、税收等政策来降低建房成本 ,使中低收入者能够买得起的一种房屋。从 1 998年开始 ,经济适用房在全国范围内出现以来 ,各地的经济适用房市场发展态势良好 ,很多地方都出现了供销两旺的局面。但在经济适用房市场的发展过程中 ,也出现了很多问题 ,本文分析了这些问题并提出了解决措施。     

城市新就业职工住房保障问题实证研究——基于合肥市新就业职工的调查

调查表明,50%多的新就业职工住房困难。由于收入较低,新就业职工住房支付能力严重不足,30%多的新就业职工家庭缺乏租房支付能力;超过70%的新就业职工家庭缺乏购房支付能力。所以,要尽快将新就业职工纳入住房保障范围。首先,提高新就业职工收入水平,遏制住房价格过快上涨;其次,多渠道筹集住房保障资金;第三,积极创新相关配套政策,完善公共租赁住房准入和退出机制;第四,适时推出限价商品住房,利用优惠信贷政策,提高新就业职工住房支付能力。     

The impact of entrepreneurial orientation on firm performance: the role of CEO position tenure and industry tenure

The relationship between Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) and firm performance, despite generating significant scholarly interest, has remained mixed. These results may be attributed, at least in part, to the failure to sufficiently examine the potential impact of top management characteristics. The present study investigates how CEO characteristics (i.e. CEO industry and position tenure), impact the relationship between EO and firm performance within a sample of 579 US banks. As predicted, some support for a positive EO to performance relationship was found. In addition, the results strongly support, as posited, that CEO industry tenure positively moderates, and CEO position tenure negatively moderates, the EO to performance relationship. We also report evidence supporting the effect of EO, configured with CEO position tenure and industry tenure on firm performance. Our study suggests the EO–performance relationship is more complex than previous studies indicate. Implications for future research and practice are provided.     

The effect of corporate governance on credit ratings: Evidence from China's bond market

This paper examines the association between firms’ corporate governance and credit ratings (both bond ratings and issuer ratings) in China. In addition to considering the financial attributes of bond issuers, we ask to what extent do credit rating agencies consider the corporate governance attributes of issuers? In concept, bondholders are concerned with the financial effects of how corporate governance resolves the agency conflicts between bondholders and managers, majority and minority shareholders, and shareholders and bondholders. We find that corporate governance affects bond issuer credit ratings in China. After controlling for firms’ financial attributes, we find that issuer ratings are positively related to dual‐listing, whether the firm is a state‐owned enterprise, the ownership of the second to the tenth largest shareholder; and negatively related to the relative scale of audit fees. We attribute the positive association between dual‐listing and credit rating to higher quality and transparency of information reported by the dual‐listed firm. The value to bondholders of the implicit government guarantee of debt payments more than offsets the negative association between firm value and being an SOE. Bond rating agencies expect that the change in agency costs with a reduction in the ownership of the largest shareholder benefits bondholders. To credit rating agencies, the scale of audit fees (relative to total assets of the accounting firm) signals interest binding between the client firm and the accounting firm that threatens the independence of auditing and the quality of financial reporting. We also find that bond‐specific attributes: collateral and issue size, are positively related to bond credit ratings.     

The impact of central clearing on the market for single-name credit default swaps

In this article, we revisit the impact of the voluntary central clearing scheme on the CDS market. In order to address the endogeneity problem, we use a robust methodology that relies on dynamic propensity-score matching combined with generalized difference-in-differences. Our empirical findings show that central clearing results in a small increase in CDS spreads (ranging from 14 to 19 bps), while there is no evidence of an associated improvement in CDS market liquidity and trading activity or of a deterioration in the default risk of the underlying bond. These results suggest that the increase in CDS spreads can be mainly attributed to a reduction in CDS counterparty risk.     

Blowing it up and knocking it down: The local and city-wide effects of demolishing high concentration public housing on crime

This paper estimates the effect that the closure and demolition of roughly 20,000 units of geographically concentrated high-rise public housing had on crime in Chicago. We estimate local effects of closures on crime in the neighborhoods where high-rises stood and in proximate neighborhoods. We also estimate the impact that households displaced from high-rises had on crime in the neighborhoods to which they moved and neighborhoods close to those. Overall, reductions in violent crime in and near the areas where high-rises were demolished greatly outweighed increases in violent crime associated with the arrival of displaced residents in new neighborhoods.     

The effects of employee stock ownership on stock liquidity: Evidence from the Korean market

This study investigates the relationship between the level of employee stock ownership (ESO) and stock liquidity. Using Korean ESO data, we find that ESO is positively associated with various liquidity measures. Stock-owning employees tend to mitigate information asymmetry to increase their benefits from the transparent market. We also find stronger effects when the firm is not an affiliate of a chaebol family group, and is less monitored by financial analysts, foreign investors, and outside directors. Furthermore, we employ various robustness tests to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries

Using data from BRICS countries, we apply the TVP-VAR model to analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on their stock markets and the mechanisms leading to those effects. We find that for BRICS countries, there are similarities as well as differences in the extent, direction, and duration of the effects of exchange rate changes on the stock market. As for the affecting mechanisms, Brazil is almost entirely driven by the financial account, while the current account is dominant for Russia, whereas India, China, and South Africa depend on both mechanisms.     

The effect of CEO incentives on deviations from institutional norms in foreign market expansion decisions: Behavioral agency and cross-border acquisitions

CEO incentives have been the subject of great interest for human resource scholars. We explore the institutional context within which the CEO makes sense of their incentives. Our theory suggests that CEO equity incentives interact with institutional norms to influence foreign market entry choices. Specifically, we argue that CEOs will weigh the risk bearing created by equity incentives, along with the consequences of legitimacy loss, when deciding whether to deviate from institutional norms when internationalizing. In doing so, we advance human resource literature by demonstrating that CEO responses to incentives are influenced by institutional norms and that CEOs' decisions to deviate from institutional norms are shaped by their incentives. We find support for our framework in the analysis of the stake taken by acquirers in 4,184 cross-border acquisitions.     

The housing market effects of discrete land use regulations: Evidence from the California coastal boundary zone

The California coast line borders some of the most beautiful and expensive land in the entire world. The California Coastal Commission was created in 1976 to protect the coast line and to regulate land use within the coastal boundary zone. This well defined regulatory boundary offers a unique opportunity to study the consequences of land use regulation on nearby housing located in the same political jurisdiction. Using two different geocoded data sets, we document gentrification within the boundary and discuss possible explanations for these patterns.     

江苏省绿色节能住宅的开发研究——太阳能建筑一体化应用浅谈

太阳能与建筑一体化是光热和光电发展的趋势和潮流,太阳能技术作为绿色节能住宅技术的核心,其与建筑技术有效的结合是太阳能技术一体化技术应用的核心。文章主要在设计、施工等阶段对该技术的应用提出了一些看法,对江苏省大面积推广太阳能建筑一体化住宅的建设具有一些参考价值。     

国际知识资本溢出对全要素生产率的影响——基于中国省级面板数据实证研究

国际知识资本溢出是推动全要素生产率的重要引擎。基于中国30个省份2000—2018年面板数据,利用双向固定效应模型研究进口溢出的知识资本和FDI溢出的知识资本对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明:两类国际知识资本均对全要素生产率有显著促进作用,进口溢出的知识资本促进弹性大于FDI溢出的知识资本,但在加入交叉项后两者存在显著的抑制效应,这主要是由于跨国公司内部贸易的技术封锁导致;国际知识资本对全要素生产率的影响具有区域异质性,对东部的促进效应明显优于中西部。这一发现为我国更高效地利用国际知识资本进行区域间协调高质量发展提供了理论依据。     

The effects of match uncertainty and bargaining on labor market outcomes: evidence from firm and worker specific estimates

In this paper we examine wage dispersion in labor markets across currently employed workers. We argue that differences in the potential productivity of a match (typically assumed to be known in the previous literature) generates a surplus between the minimum wage the worker is willing to accept and the maximum wage the firm is willing to offer for the job. Existence of this surplus leads to wage dispersion due to negotiating over the amounts extracted by each agent. Our objective is to estimate the surplus extracted by each firm-worker pair and the effect of the net extracted surplus on the wage, for each firm-worker pair using the two-tier stochastic frontier model. An empirical application finds that, on average, firms paid workers less than their expected productivity. More specifically, at the mean, the net effect of productivity uncertainty leads to equilibrium wages which are 3.33% below the expected productivity of matches.