An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion

Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules.     

Analysis of airport weather impact on on-time performance of arrival flights for the Brazilian domestic air transportation system

Air traffic operations are significantly impacted by weather conditions. These external factors may impose operational constraints and generate demand-capacity imbalances, leading to reduced on-time performance, additional airline costs and inconveniences to passengers. Efficient management of such disruptions requires an understanding of the main causes of flight delays towards increasing their predictability. In this study, we investigate the impacts of airport surface weather conditions on the likelihood of flight delays for the Brazilian domestic air transportation system. We use historical flight schedule, on-time performance and weather data and estimate a logit model to analyze how different meteorological variables at the airport of destination affect the probability of a delayed arrival. We obtain empirical evidence for the impacts of low ceiling and visibility conditions, precipitation and wind gusts on the likelihood of arrival delays for the set of Brazilian airports analyzed.     

Multivariate analysis of the impacts of NAS investments: A case study of a capacity expansion at Dallas-Fort Worth Airport

Multivariate statistical analysis is used to estimate the impacts of a major capacity expansion at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. The model relates the Daily Flight Time Index (DFTI) to demand, weather, origin airport congestion, and the expansion itself. The effect of the capacity expansion on DFTI is found to depend strongly on visibility. On average, the index in the post-expansion period is 1.3 min less as a consequence of investment. This change includes a larger reduction in departure delay that is offset by an increase in taxi time. Moreover, the reduction caused by the expansion has been more than offset by increases in the DFTI resulting from other factors, notably increased demand and worse weather.     

Regional public support to airlines and airports: An unsolved puzzle

This paper proposes a structural model to explain the motivation of regional public authorities to arrange marketing agreements for route and traffic development. Furthermore, using data from Spanish airports, we empirically test this model obtaining the demand function according to the preferences of public authorities. The results show that the public budget, airport’s attributes or intermodal competition affect to the demand for aircraft operations of regional public agencies. Finally, we propose an empirical method to determine the market power of airlines within these marketing agreements in a particular airport or route.     

The effect of de-hubbing on airfares

This paper studies the price effect of de-hubbing, which occurs when an airline ceases hub operations at an airport. We develop a simple theoretical model to study the impact of de-hubbing on prices and quantities of direct flights at the hub airport. Using an event study of seven cases of de-hubbing between 1993 and 2009, we analyze how average airfares change following de-hubbing. Consistent with the theoretical implications, the empirical results suggest that airfares decrease when there is a low-cost carrier presence at the de-hubbed airport, whereas airfares increase when the de-hubbed airport is not serviced by a low-cost carrier.     

Airline delay management problem with airport capacity constraints and priority decisions

This paper deals with the Airline Delay Management Problem (ADMP), which can be described as the task of dealing with daily airline operational delays and deciding whether to delay subsequent flights at a hub airport or to have them departing on time. An innovative integer linear programming approach is presented to the capacitated case of the ADMP and airport limitations in terms of bay availability, taxiway capacity and runway separation are incorporated to represent capacity constraints. Fuel cost, passenger compensation, and passenger inconvenience costs are included in the objective function. The decision variables include the re-timing of flight departures and arrivals, the use of the airport capacity over time and the rebooking of passengers in case of missed connections. To guarantee the linearity of the optimization model and fast computational times, a receding horizon modeling framework is adopted. The approach is applied to a case study using real operational and passenger data from an international hub-and-spoke carrier. The case study shows the capability of the linear model to deal with a complete day of operations within a few minutes. The results suggest that the proposed approach can lead to cost reductions of almost 30% during recovery, when compared with the solution from the airline. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is provided to investigate the impact of not including passenger inconvenience costs and of reducing runway capacity.     

Impact of landing fees on airlines’ choice of aircraft size and service frequency in duopoly markets

A one-shot simultaneous game-theoretic model is applied in a duopoly market to investigate how airport landing fees could influence airlines’ decisions on aircraft size and service frequency. It is found that higher landing fees will force airlines to use larger aircraft and less frequency, with higher load factor for the same number of passengers. It is also found that airlines will be better off if some of the extra landing fees are returned to airlines as a bonus for airlines using larger aircraft, which consequently reduces airport congestion.     

Optimising flight connection times in airline bank structure through Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search algorithms

In hub and spoke airline networks, flight arrivals and departures generally have a bank structure to increase connections among spoke cities through a hub airport in order to provide cheaper service for higher volumes of air traffic. In this study, we introduce the airline bank optimisation problem with a novel mathematical model for improving flight connection times. The mathematical model aims to minimise the total connection times for transfer passengers and generates flight schedules regarding slot capacities in the hub airports. Since the problem is a combinatorial optimisation problem NP-hard and computational complexity increases rapidly for real-world problems, we employ the simulated annealing and the tabu search algorithms to achieve better solutions in a reasonable time. We generate sub-problems using real-world data and investigate the effectiveness of the algorithms. Finally, we present the results of a real case study of a Turkish airline company which has a hub airport connecting the flights between Middle Eastern and European cities.     

The opening of direct flights across the Taiwan Strait: the impact on the global role of Taiwan’s international airport

Scheduled direct flights between Taiwan and Mainland China were halted for six decades and restarted in December 2008. The Taiwan’s government has a policy of developing Taoyuan International Airport (TPE), the major international airport in Taiwan, as one of main hubs in East Asia, based on the airport’s access to Mainland China. To assess whether the airport is progressing toward meeting the set expectation, this study evaluates the changes in airline networks of the TPE after the opening of direct flights across the Taiwan Strait. The time-dependent earliest arrival time algorithm is applied to global flights in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Empirical evidence demonstrates that providing direct flights across the Taiwan Strait has significantly increased accessibility from TPE to airports in China, but did not improve the centrality of TPE. Additionally, the transfer dependency of TPE on other airports is increasing significantly. This result was based on two major reasons: the first involves the Chinese government’s refusal to allow Chinese citizens to use airports in Taiwan as transfer points to and from other countries and the second reflects the competitiveness among airports and airlines in the region. The key finding is that political exclusion of airline use by external governments via travel regulations adversely influences the development of an airport as a global hub.     

Aviation growth in the Middle East – impacts on incumbent players and potential strategic reactions

In order to wean their economies away from declining oil reserves some Middle Eastern countries pursue substantial investments into their aviation sector. The bulk of these investments concentrates on the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and comprises fleet expansions stoked by massive airport extensions and development projects. Following an assessment of current growth processes in the Middle East, this paper analyzes the impacts of this development on flight patterns as well as on the incumbent airlines and airport operators. Furthermore, fields for potential strategic reaction are presented.Our results show that Middle Eastern carriers will soon emerge as serious global competitors to the established carriers. Since there is no sufficient regional demand to fill their capacity, these carriers aim at redirecting international traffic flows from Europe and the Americas to Asia. As a result, major players particularly in Europe and Asia will be directly affected. However, our results also indicate that for some markets Middle Eastern players are unfavourably positioned concerning parameters like flight time and required connection flights.     

A tentative analysis of the impacts of an airport closure

This paper identifies the vulnerabilities of operations at Heathrow airport to a short airport closure. The system disruptions assessed are delays, flight rerouting or diversions to alternate airports, and flight cancellations. In addition, the impact on fuel consumption, and hence CO₂ emissions, is quantified using the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator Plus simulation model and the Advanced Emission Model tool. The results have implications for assessing how increased severe weather events associated with climate change may disrupt airport operations.     

Detecting periodic patterns of arrival delay

This study identifies the periodic patterns of arrival delay for non-stop domestic flights at the Orlando International Airport during 2002–2003. Cyclic variations in air travel demand and weather at the airport were observed and their consequent effects on flight delay were investigated. This study detected the frequencies of any regularly repeating delay patterns and then identified the factors associated with the detected frequencies of delay. These sequential tasks called the “two-stage approach” were performed using a mathematical frequency analysis and statistical analysis techniques. The results of the frequency analysis showed that arrival delay displayed daily, weekly and seasonal patterns of variation. The results of the statistical analysis showed that time of day, day of week, season, flight distance, precipitation at MCO and scheduled time intervals between successive flights were significantly correlated with arrival delay.     

Mutual influence across routes using a common airport: The case of the domestic market in Japan

This paper empirically investigates the mutual influence of traffic volumes across routes serving the same airport. Regression analysis using the data on Japan's domestic air transport market reveals that an increase in passengers on a given route has a positive effect on the number of passengers on other routes that share an endpoint airport with the given route. This result implies that a change in policy for an airport is likely to influence routes that do not serve that airport as well as the routes that do.     

Endogenous control of service rates in stochastic and dynamic queuing models of airport congestion

Airport congestion mitigation requires reliable delay estimates. This paper presents an integrated model of airport congestion that combines a tactical model of capacity utilization into a strategic queuing model. The model quantifies the relationships between flight schedules, airport capacity and flight delays, while accounting for the way arrival and departure service rates can be controlled over the day to maximize operating efficiency. We show that the model estimates the average and variability of the delays observed at New York’s airports relatively well. Results suggest that delays can be extremely sensitive to even small changes in flight schedules or airport capacity.     

The impact of low-cost carriers on airport choice in the US: A case study of the Washington–Baltimore region

Previous research has shown that low-cost carriers (LCCs) may stimulate traffic at an airport by offering low fares. Using passenger survey data from the Washington–Baltimore region’s three airports, we find that the benefits of LCCs to airports extend beyond the traffic generated directly by the LCCs through their low fares. In addition, we find that the mere presence of an LCC at an airport can attract passengers, even to competing carriers. These “halo effects” from LCC presence increase the significance to airport managers of attracting LCCs in order to generate passenger demand.     

The impact of airline alliance terminal co-location on airport operations and terminal development

The notion of co-locating alliance carriers to their designated terminals in airports has gained significant interest in recent years. While benefits on the part of airlines are made clear by existing literature on alliance-hubbing, the tangible benefits to airport operators are less clear due to a lack of studies in the literature. This paper considers existing cases of London Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Tokyo Narita Airport, and applies their operational practices to a medium-sized airport in Asia Pacific to evaluate the universal applicability of alliance member co-location. Although some operational and financial improvements are observed, the paper concludes that implementation of this concept should not be done through a one-size-fits-all approach.     

Passengers' airport choice and airports' catchment area analysis in cross-border Upper Adriatic multi-airport region

Although much research has been performed on passengers' origin airport choice, there is little research on airports' catchment area size and even less on airports' catchment areas in cross-border regions. This paper addresses passengers' airport choice and analyzes airports' catchment area size and its homogeneity in the Upper Adriatic region. Using the results of passengers' survey at three regional airports (Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport (LJU), Venice Marco Polo Airport (VCE) and Trieste Pietro Savorgnan di Brazza Airport (TRS)) we have estimated the airports' catchment areas and airports market shares therein using multinomial logit (MNL) model structure. To additionally explore the passengers' airport choice behavior considering the different sensitivity across travellers to regional, demographic and airports attributes and account for preference heterogeneity in airport choice a mixed logit model was used. The results indicated that the three airports have relatively small core catchment areas and that the market share rapidly decreases with the increasing access time to airport. Partially, the results reinforced earlier findings showing that access time to airport is the most important determinant in airport choice for all segments (business/leisure and cross-border/domestic), however the sensitivity to access time is more pronounced in business and domestic group. Additionally, the results indicated pronounced loyalty to domestic airports and generally low importance of ticket prices, and show that in market conditions where all airports in the region have a low-cost carrier (LCC) the effect of LCC on airport choice is limited. Finally, the results indicated that the borders might have an influence on airport choice and that overall, in the cross-border regions the passengers’ airport choice process is even more complex than in non cross-border regions.     

Departure delays,the pricing of congestion,and expansion proposals at Chicago O’Hare Airport

Chicago's O’Hare airport is extremely congested, especially in the late afternoon and early evening. The paper uses a publicly available database to estimate the relationship between the number of flights wishing to depart and the delays they experience. This relationship is used to calculate congestion fees that provide airlines with incentives to move some flights out of the peak period and to slightly alter the scheduled departure time of other flights to avoid the rush of departures that occur on the hour. The very high fees at certain times of day point to the benefits that can be obtained from current plans to expand and reconfigure the airport to reduce delays in both good and bad weather.     

Airline new route selection using compromise programming - The case of Taiwan-Europe

The decision to launch a new route has a huge effect on the outcomes of airlines in the market. In order to find potential destinations for airlines, this paper utilizes a compromise programming method for selecting direct flight routes. The selection framework comprises two objective functions, with one maximizing total revenue and the other minimizing total cost. A case studying Taiwan-European region destinations is interpreted in the analysis. The results indicate that four potential routes, including Madrid, Milan, Munich and Zurich should be added to the airlines’ service destinations. Therefore, this research suggested that the airport authority could apply incentives scheme to attract carriers to open new routes and add flight frequencies to strengthen its competitiveness.     

Airport performance in a tourism receiving country: Evidence from Greece

The aim of this study is to estimate the performance of 38 Greek airports. The analysis is performed in two stages. Firstly, efficiency scores for each airport are estimated using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) original and bootstrap techniques. Secondly, statistical assessments (Mann–Whitney U and Kruskal–Wallis tests) and a censored Tobit regression model are employed to identify which factors significantly explain variations in the airport efficiency. The results indicated the scope for substantial efficiency improvements. In addition, island location, connectivity, and hotel infrastructure in the area were found to be significant factors affecting airport efficiency.