Was there policy “reform”? Evolution of EU domestic support for processed fruits and vegetables

Policy “reform” in agricultural markets is often associated with less government regulation and expenditures, or a shift towards more efficient interventions. The European Union (EU) adopted major policy changes for processed fruits and vegetables in 2001 and again in 2008, and we employ a simulation model to examine the effects of the three policy regimes in place before and after each of the changes. Our analysis incorporates the heterogeneity of processing firms in the EU and considers how they responded to the different policy regimes. Simulation results indicate that the EU subsidies increased EU tomato production by 3.8% for the regime that began in 2008 and 9.1% for the regime that began in 2001 compared to no subsidies. The policy regime that was in place from 2001 through 2007 led to the greatest distortions in global processing tomato markets, in part because it directed more of the benefits to EU growers and less to EU processors and consumers. Thus changes in 2001 “reformed” policy by redistributing gains within the EU, while changes in 2008 “reformed” policy by reducing distortions in global markets.     

中国经济政策不确定与人民币汇率溢出效应的实证研究

本文通过综合运用VAR模型和MVGARCH-BEKK模型,在“8.11汇改”前后对样本进行分段,分析了经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率间均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应。结果表明:(1)在全样本期间,人民币汇率对经济政策不确定性同时产生均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应,而经济政策不确定性对汇率不产生溢出效应;(2)“8.11汇改”后,经济政策不确定和人民币汇率的联动关系发生了改变。汇改前经济政策不确定性对汇率不产生溢出效应,汇改后出现了波动溢出效应;汇改前汇率变化对经济政策不确定性产生正均值溢出,汇改后人民币汇率对经济政策不确定性产生负均值溢出;(3)汇改后汇率市场化程度提高,中国经济政策不确定性和外汇市场的联动性增强。     

Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background

To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method

A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results

Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion

Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.     

基于政策网络治理模式下的区域政府间合作

政策网络治理是政策网络理论与治理理论研究相结合形成的新的治理流派,是公共治理的一种新框架和新模式,代表着治理主体、治理工具、治理结构、治理机制的深刻变迁。随着全球经济一体化和中国加入WTO,中国经济的发展步伐的不断加快,在政策网络治理模式下的区域政府之间的合作正在逐步形成,但在进程中遇到的问题也日益凸显。面对这些问题,文章在政府合作必要性及存在问题原因分析的基础上,对地方政府间的合作进行了对策设计,以期提高区域合作的效果和水平。     

The disappearing budget constraint on EU agricultural policy

Concern over budgetary costs has been the traditional driving force behind changes to the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. While the recent MacSharry reform of this policy was more related to external pressures arising from the need to reach an agreement on agriculture in the GATT Uruguay Round, many expect the budgetary constraint to re-emerge towards the end of this decade, particularly in the light of the impending accession of a number of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper argues that it is unlikely that there will be any budgetary need to further reform Europe's agricultural policy to accommodate the CEECs. Applying the agricultural guideline to estimate resources and using a simple forecasting model of FEOGA Guarantee budget expenditure, the paper demonstrates that, under a range of plausible assumptions for the key variables affecting resources and expenditure, a significant positive margin should emerge between available resources and the cost of EU agricultural policy by the beginning of the next decade. This margin should be sufficient to pay the estimated costs of extending the present CAP to the CEEC countries without further significant reform. However, even though the budget cinstraint on EU farm policy may disappear, other factors, such as GATT disciplines and concern about agriculture's impact on the environment, will remain as pressures for further CAP reform.     

Effects of Employment Outcomes on Changes to Policy Covering Police

I examine influences on the probability that a state changed its labor relations policies covering municipal police to assess whether policy can be treated as an exogenous factor in analyses of employment outcomes. Multinomial logit estimates suggest a balancing of interests over time, with greater relative pay associated with decreases in the probability of union-favorable policy changes and with increases in the probability of management-favorable policy changes.     

多哈回合谈判中的农业补贴问题分析

多哈回合农业谈判将在2004年7月达成的《框架协议》下对农业补贴政策进行具体的磋商。与乌拉圭回合《农业协议》相比,《框架协议》中对农业补贴政策进行了调整：对具有贸易扭曲作用的农业补贴政策提出了新的削减方式,对“蓝箱”政策进行了改革,对“绿箱”政策进行审议和澄清。框架协议中的农业补贴政策改革对新一轮农业谈判具有重要的指导作用,对WTO各成员国的影响也有所不同。     

Seasonal rural labor markets and their relevance to policy analyses in developing countries

Seasonality is a salient feature of rural livelihoods and particularly within agriculture the demand for labor varies with the seasons and weather. In low-income countries, agriculture employs almost two-thirds of the labor force and incomes from labor are a major determinant of welfare. Therefore, an appropriate model representation of rural labor markets is critical when analyzing agricultural and food policies. Economy-wide models are commonly used for ex-ante policy analysis, but have so far ignored the influence of seasonality, implicitly assuming separability of seasonal labor demand and supply. This study relaxes that assumption using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the Bhutanese economy as an illustrative case. Using model setups with and without seasonal labor markets, a cereal export ban of India is simulated leading to higher import prices for Bhutan. Results demonstrate that neglecting the influence of seasons on rural labor markets systematically biases model results. Assuming homogeneity of labor units, i.e., allowing substitution across seasons, understates the impacts of policy changes on rural wage rates, distorts households' labor-leisure trade-off decisions and overstates agricultural supply response. Given the widespread use of economy-wide models, the results are important for understanding the implications of domestic and global policy changes for agriculture and welfare in developing economies.     

The impact of non-neutral federal regulatory policy on competition

We present a duopoly competition model to illustrate how the simultaneous incorporation of two US federal regulatory programs negatively affected telecommunications competition during the past decade. Our model shows that the simultaneous implementation of the Universal Service Fund policy that grants subsidies to incumbent telecommunications providers serving in high-cost areas, and the carrier of last resort policy that mandates incumbents to provide service in under-served geographic areas, deters competitive entry in low-cost markets and thereby runs counter to the objectives for which the policies were intended. This model provides a theoretical explanation of a failure of federal policy.     

访问控制策略一致性和完备性检测方法研究

为实现对复杂访问控制策略的统一管理,检测并排除冲突和不完备的访问控制策略,提出了利用访问控制策略集合中的偏序信息构造融合主体、客体层级结构的有向无环图模型。首先从理论上证明了构建有向无环图模型的可行性,并提出利用偏序关系构建有向无环图模型的实施算法,然后利用有向无环图模型的节点集合设计了访问控制策略一致性和完备性检测算法,最后对模型构建算法及访问控制策略一致性和完备性检测算法进行实验验证。实验结果表明,融合主体、客体层级结构的有向无环图模型可以有效管理复杂系统中访问控制策略中出现的冲突与策略不完备情况。相关算法可以有效地实现对复杂访问控制策略的统一管理。     

Residential Construction Volatility: A Seasonal and Cyclical Inventory Adjustment Analysis

The seasonality of inventories and the seasonality and cyclicality of sales of new single-family residences by speculative builders may be formally introduced into a partial production adjustment inventory model of housing starts. The theoretical results include variables that imply an interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. A specification error bias in the estimation of the partial adjustment coefficient is evaluated for models that exclude the interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. Stabilization policy is more complex when cyclical instability changes season to season. In this view, justification is found for a seasonal stabilization policy in housing.     

A dynamic policy license for flexible spectrum management

Electromagnetic spectrum for wireless communications is fully allocated by regulatory authorities, but this does not mean that it is fully utilized. Demand for greater capacity and new services requires new regulatory and technical models for spectrum sharing. This paper develops a regulatory model denoted the dynamic policy license. The dynamic policy license combines the assurances to licensees that come from holding a fixed license while maintaining regulatory flexibility. A dynamic policy license is similar to a traditional spectrum license that specifies a bandwidth, power, center frequency, location, and other parameters. However, one or more of these parameters is subject to change by the regulator over time. The allowed changes are restricted by the license to provide assurances and predictability to the licensee. The opportunities and challenges that this presents to both regulators and licensees is described. For instance, the dynamic policy license can be a regulatory tool for more aggressive spectrum sharing.     

我国工业污染治理动态效率研究

全要素生产率是动态效率的一种度量。以我国30个省市的工业污染治理投入产出的统计数据为实例,运用基于DEA模型的Malmquist指数方法,测算了2000～2009年中国省际的工业污染治理全要素生产率的变化。结果显示:2000～2009年期间我国工业污染治理全要素生产率增加7.1%,主要来源于技术进步的贡献;省际间的全要素生产率的变动存在较大区域差异,河北省工业污染治理全要素生产率改善最多,而青海省下降最多;工业污染治理全要素生产率的变化和技术变化随时间都呈现U型曲线规律。最后基于实证分析的结果,给出了提升我国工业污染治理效率的政策建议。     

投机性需求、刚性需求与房价上涨的非线性关系——基于空间计量模型的实证研究

本文利用2000~2008年24个省份的季度面板数据,采用空间计量经济模型构建基于当期收入、预期资产收益变动以及利率的住宅价格模型,以资产升值预期和收入变动的视角来研究住宅价格上涨的投机性需求和刚性需求。实证研究结果表明货币政策对房价的影响极为重要;可支配收入对房价的影响次之,资产升值预期对房价的影响与刚性需求相差不大,表明投机性需求已经逐渐成为主导我国住宅价格走势的关键性因素。     

A Property Tax Base Model

This model analyzes fiscal year changes and shifts in local government's real property tax base. The three variables quantified by this analysis are net new development, change in assessment-market price ratio and appreciation. The model's results provide useful analytical data to taxpayers and policy makers. These data can be used to help determine policy actions relative to (1) the amount and type of development and its impact on the future fiscal position of the respective jurisdiction; (2) the equity of the various property classes' assessment-sales price ratios; and (3) possibly altering the rate of appreciation among the various classes. The model might also be used on a sub-area basis to help determine prospering and declining areas, and to help forecast the property tax base and revenue.     

Market dynamics and investment in the electricity sector

A transition to a low carbon future will include a medium-to-long run period in which intermittent renewables co-exist with conventional fossil fuel electricity generators. Fossil fuel generators have frequent startups and shut-downs during the transition. A dynamic competition model is developed that allows for costly cycling of conventional generators. We analyze long run effects of renewable subsidies and carbon prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system using the dynamic model. Accounting for costly generator cycling leads to large changes in equilibrium outcomes and changes policy predictions. The dynamic model predicts higher subsidies or carbon taxes are required to achieve CO2 reduction targets compared to a static model without costly generator cycling. The dynamic model predicts the cost of CO2 reduction is 40 - 80% greater than the static model prediction. The dynamic model predicts a much larger gap between CO2 reduction costs for carbon taxes and renewable subsidies; $303 million/year, compared to a static model prediction of $209 million/year.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment

This study performs empirical tests of the semistrong form efficiency of a real estate investment market. An asset pricing model is utilized to estimate the abnormal returns resulting from two types of public information, major changes in government tax shelter and rent control policies as well as unanticipated changes in interest rates. In both cases the results find an absence of significant abnormal returns and no evidence to suggest that real estate investors can utilize information concerning government policy changes or interest rate movements to earn higher returns on a risk-adjusted basis. In general the findings of this study conform to the semistrong form version of the efficient markets hypothesis.     

Consequences of further opening of the Korean dairy market

This paper develops a simulation of Korean dairy policy that is tailored to the data, institutions, and policies in South Korea. It compares potential effects of changes in trade and domestic policy to baseline projections to 2015. Beverage milk continues to be supplied from domestic sources, implying imports compete in the manufacture of tradable products. We model manufactured dairy product supply, demand, and trade on a milk fat and non-fat-solid component basis reflecting product fungibility over the 10-year horizon used for our trade policy analysis. We find that if the domestic price support is removed with no change in trade policy, the market price of raw milk falls by about 2% and raw milk production declines by 4.5%. Under substantial tariff cuts of 30–40% with no effective change in domestic dairy policy, Korean fat and non-fat-solid prices fall by 7% and 11%, fat and non-fat-solid imports rise by 9% and 7% and Korea raw milk production falls by about 2% relative to the baseline. Prices of Korean farmer-owned dairy inputs, labor, and capital fall by about 1%.     

Privatization and production efficiency in Taiwan's telecommunications industry

Many managers, economists, and policy-makers have long believed that the production of a private enterprise is more efficient than that of a public one. This paper investigated whether it was good policy to privatize Taiwan's telecommunications industry by comparing the changes in efficiency in Chunghwa Telecom Company (CHT Co.) before and after privatization. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was used to evaluate their operational performance both pre- and post-privatization. The technical efficiency (CRS) computed with the CCR model assuming constant returns to scale, the technical efficiency (VRS), and the scale efficiency (VRS) were obtained with the BCC model assuming variable returns to scale, using the time-series data from CHT. The findings of this study show that the production efficiencies of CHT, both pre- and post-privatization are inefficient since all of the technical efficiencies are smaller than one.