Higher moment exchange rate exposure of S&P500 firms

We examine the impact of higher order moments of changes in the exchange rate on stock returns of U.S. large-cap companies in the S&P500. We find a robust negative effect of exchange rate volatility on S&P500 company returns. The consumer discretionary and the consumer staples sectors have significant negative exposure to exchange rate volatility suggesting that exchange rate volatility affects stock returns through the channel of international operations. In terms of industries, the household products and personal products industries have significant negative exposure as well. The impact in the financial sector suggests that derivatives and hedging activity can mitigate exposure to exchange rate volatility. We find weak evidence that exchange rate skewness has an effect on S&P500 stock returns, but, find evidence that exchange rate kurtosis affects returns of companies that are more exposed to exchange rate volatility.     

Impact of diversification on the distribution of stock returns: International evidence

In the past, stock returns are often assumed to be normally distributed. Potential gains from international portfolio diversification are thus based on a mean-variance framework. However, numerous empirical results reveal that stock returns are actually not normally distributed. Although previous studies found that both skewness and kurtosis can be rapidly diversified away, these results are only valid for a random sample of a given portfolio size. This paper studies the joint effect of diversification and intervaling on the skewness and kurtosis of eleven international stock market indexes with a holding period spanning from one to six months. A complete set of all possible combinations of portfolios is used. It is found that diversification does not reduce either skewness or kurtosis. As the portfolio size increases, portfolio returns become more negatively skewed and more leptokurtic. As a result, a rational investor may not gain from international diversification.     

Individual stock sentiment beta and stock returns

Using the data in Chinese stock market, we measure the individual stock sentiment beta, which is defined as the sensitivity of individual stock returns to the individual stock sentiment changes. We demonstrate that stocks in the highest individual stock sentiment beta portfolio have significantly higher excess returns, CAPM alpha, Fama-French three-factor alpha and Fama-French five-factor alpha. Besides, we find that the high individual stock sentiment beta stocks are smaller, younger, more volatile stocks with higher price and higher market beta. After controlling for firm characteristic, the returns of High-Low individual stock sentiment beta portfolios are still significantly positive. Moreover, we show the effect of the individual stock sentiment beta on stock returns is positive and significant in different stock markets, in different sample periods, and in bull and bear market. Besides, the results of the Bayes-Stein individual stock sentiment beta are still stable.     

基于自由现金流的投资组合研究

本文运用我国股市1998～2006年间的财务报表数据,选择正自由现金流、低自由现金流乘数和低财务杠杆的大公司,对其以自由现金流为基础的投资组合进行了检验。结果显示,以自由现金流为基础的投资组合回报始终优于市场指数,说明在我国股市实行基于自由现金流的投资组合是积极可行的。     

Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis

This paper examines whether individual stocks can act as inflation hedgers. We focus on longer investment horizons and construct in- and out-of-sample portfolios based on the long-run relationship (cointegration) of stock prices with respect to consumer prices. Empirical evidence suggests that investors are better off by holding a portfolio of stocks with higher long-run betas as part of asset selection and allocation strategy. Stocks that outperform inflation tend to be drawn from the Energy and Industrial sectors. Finally, we observe that the companies average inflation hedging ability declined steadily over the past ten years, while the number of firms that hedge inflation has decreased considerably after the recent downturn of the US economy.     

Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas

In this study, we used informational advantage in the options market to investigate whether the option-implied equity risk developed by Chen, Chung, and Tsai (2016) - viewed as a type of time-varying beta - can help explain both the Hou and Moskowitz (2005) price delay premium and post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Our empirical results revealed a clear association between quintile portfolios with greater price delay premiums and higher option-implied betas, while the Fama-MacBeth regressions showed that the implied betas are positively related to future delay-based portfolio returns. Regarding the PEAD, we discerned a general increase in the mean of portfolio option-implied betas with standardized unexpected earnings portfolio drift. Our regression results support the notion that a portfolio’s PEAD can be viewed as compensation for the variations in option-implied betas.     

Sulla rigidita ‘della volatilita’ dell'ottimo portafoglio aleatorio al variare delle aspettative di mercato

Con riferimento al ben noto modello diagonale di Sharpe per le scelte di portafoglio, il presente lavoro si propone di fomire supporto teorico alla congettura (confermata da indagini sul mercato finanziario domestico) di una sostanziale rigidità della volatilità dell'ottimo portafoglio aleatorio al variare delle aspettative di mercato.

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Summary It is well known that one of the key theoretical supports to modern portfolio management derives from the so called diagonal model proposed by W. Sharpe.Precisely managers should build risky portfolios with high beta if the market is expected to rise and conversely with low betas if the market is expected to fall.Here on the contrary we discuss the theoretical bases of what seems to be a law of rigidity of the volatility of the optimal risky portfolio to variations ceteris paribus of the market expectations, quite likely prevailing on financial markets.Indeed this fact seems to be supported by empirical data regarding domestic stock market collected and discussed elsewhere (Stucchi 1988).This seems to suggest that the right response to change in market expectation is to change the bond-stock composition of the protfolio, rather then to act on the volatility of the stock (risky) portfolio.

     

What drives the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market?

This paper examines the dynamics of the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market by adopting a multivariate decomposition approach to measure the individual contributions of various driving forces of the premium (such as firm size, idiosyncratic volatility, and market liquidity betas). By employing a wide range of liquidity measures, we show that liquidity premium is generally significant in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, this premium is increasing in recent years starting from 2011; this observation is different from the United States market, in which the premium has declined over the years. Moreover, the multivariate decomposition approach highlights several asset pricing factors as the main driving forces of the premium. Based on the Amihud liquidity measure, the decomposition approach indicates that the size factor contributes 45–65% to the liquidity premium. However, the measure based on turnover suggests that idiosyncratic volatility accounts for at least 60% of the liquidity premium. In contrast, the global market liquidity beta does not significantly contribute to the premium. However, there is some evidence that the local market liquidity beta has become more significant in its impact on the premium during the period from 2011 to 2015. Our results imply that the findings on the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market could be sensitive to the liquidity measure used and period of analysis.     

The relationship between oil prices,the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the variables of oil price, exchange rate and stock market index to explain how they interact with each other in the Mexican economy. The examined period includes monthly data from January 1992 to June 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is implemented that includes oil prices, the nominal exchange rate, the Mexican stock market index, and the consumer price index. Results indicate that the exchange rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the stock market index; this indicates that an appreciation of the exchange rate is related to an increase in the stock market index. It is also found that the consumer price index has a positive effect on the exchange rate and a negative effect on the stock market index. The results also indicate that oil prices are statistically significant against the exchange rate, concluding that an increase in oil prices creates an appreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, the impulse-response functions show that the effects found tend to disappear over time.     

公司风险视角下上市国企管理层股权激励研究

在允许国有控股上市公司实施股权激励的背景下,考察了其不同种类风险与经营者股权激励强度的关系。先界定了风险的类型,再通过构建基于风险的两种股权激励模型,并进一步推导得出：若国有上市企业的管理层不能（可以）买卖公司以外的市场证券组合时,其最优股权激励强度与公司特别性风险成反向变化关系,而与公司整体性风险的相关关系不确定（无关）,这为正在实践中摸索的国有上市企业管理层股权激励合同的设计提供了进一步的理论建议。     

Ownership and control in shareholding networks

This paper aims to provide a network analysis of the relationships of shareholders in the Italian stock market for understanding the relevance of portfolio diversification in integrated ownership and firms control. The analysis combines both a complex network and an operational research approach. The former is used for statistical analyses on portfolio diversification. The latter estimates integrated ownership considering the paths on the network, and it emphasizes the difference between ownership and control. The dataset consists of nearly 300 companies traded on the Italian Stock Market. Data were retrieved through CONSOB and AIDA database, and they are adjourned at 2008. The dataset is completed with information on banks and insurance companies. Such data were retrieved through BANKSCOPE and ISIS databases.     

Time-varying beta in functional factor models: Evidence from China

In this paper, we introduce a functional method to investigate how betas change over time in factor models. Based on the China A-share data, we drop the constant beta assumption in the CAPM and multi-factor models to estimate the time-varying betas directly from the functional data regression. The empirical results show that exposures to all risk factors have certain time-varying patterns in the Chinese A-share stock market.     

Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM

We propose a volatility-based capital asset pricing model (V-CAPM) in which asset betas change discretely with respect to changes in investors’ expectations regarding near-term aggregate volatility. Using a novel measure to proxy uncertainty about expected changes in aggregate volatility, i.e. monthly range of the VIX index (RVIX), we find that portfolio betas change significantly when uncertainty about aggregate volatility expectations is beyond a certain threshold level. Due to changes in their market betas, small and value stocks are perceived as riskier than their big and growth counterparts in bad times, when uncertainty about aggregate volatility expectations is high. The proposed model yields a positive and significant market risk premium during periods when investors do not expect significant uncertainty in near-term aggregate volatility. Our findings support a volatility-based time-varying risk explanation.     

Extreme risk transmission channels between the stock index futures and spot markets: Evidence from China

We develop a skewness-dependent multivariate conditional autoregressive value at risk model (SDMV-CAViaR) to detect the extreme risk transmission channels between the Chinese stock index futures and spot markets. The proposed SDMV-CAViaR model improves the forecast performance of extreme risk by introducing the high-frequency realized skewness. Specifically, the realized skewness has a significant impact on the spillovers, but the realized volatility and realized kurtosis do not, which implies that the jump component plays an important role in extreme risk spillovers. The empirical results indicate there are bidirectional extreme risk spillovers between the stock index futures and spot markets, the decline of one market has direct and indirect channels to exacerbate the extreme risk of the other market. Firstly, the market decline will directly increase the extreme risk of related markets by decreasing market returns. Besides, the decline will indirectly increase the extreme risk by increasing the negative realized skewness and extreme risk spillovers.     

Does lending behaviour of banks in emerging economies vary by ownership? Evidence from the Indian banking sector

While much has been discussed about the relationship between ownership and financial performance of banks in emerging markets, literature about cross-ownership differences in credit market behaviour of banks in emerging economies is sparse. Using a portfolio choice model and bank-level data from India for 9 years (1995–96 to 2003–04), we examine banks’ behaviour in the context of credit markets of an emerging market economy. Our results indicate that, in India, the data for the domestic banks fit well the aforementioned portfolio-choice model, especially for private banks, but the model cannot explain the behaviour of foreign banks. In general, allocation of assets between risk-free government securities and risky credit is affected by past allocation patterns, stock exchange listing (for private banks), risk averseness of banks, regulations regarding treatment of NPA, and ability of banks to recover doubtful credit. It is also evident that banks deal with changing levels of systematic risk by altering the ratio of securitized to non-securitized credit.     

Media Coverage and the Stock Market Valuation of TARP Participating Banks‡

We examine the impact of media coverage of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) under the Troubled Assets Relief Program on the equity market valuation of participating bank holding companies (CPP banks). We document substantial negative coverage of the CPP and its participants over the five quarters following the program's initiation. We find that the extent of negative media coverage about the CPP exerted substantial downward pressure on the stock returns of CPP banks, decreasing their valuation relative to bank holding companies not participating in the program. We show that our findings cannot be explained by differences in the banks’ financial viability at the CPP's initiation, new information about their performance being released to the market after the CPP's initiation or preceding stock returns causing the negative media coverage. Our findings highlight the importance of investor sentiment, as reflected by the tone of media coverage, in banks’ valuation during a period of high uncertainty in financial markets.     

Adjusting MV-efficient portfolio frontier bias for skewed and non-mesokurtic returns

This study investigates the bias adjustment for mean–variance efficient portfolio frontiers due to population mean and variance estimation error in Taiwan stock market. Although Siegel and Woodgate (2007; Management Science, 53, 1005–1015) and Kan and Smith (2008; Management Science, 54, 1364–1380) suggested two portfolio frontiers that improved upon the out-of-sample performance of a traditional sample portfolio frontier. However, this study shows that, using the copula function and Gram-Charlier series, the two frontiers are theoretically biased toward the actual frontier unless returns behave normally, and the bias is related to the return skewness and kurtosis. Indeed, the two frontiers are empirically biased to the lower-left side of the actual ones, because the Taiwan stock returns are right-skewed and highly leptokurtic. Thus, this study thus proposes revised portfolio frontiers that are closer to the actual frontier than unrevised ones. This improvement may enhance the estimation accuracy of the capital market line, and hence this study can provide an effective investment reference.     

Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America

We examine the network spillovers, portfolio allocation characteristics and diversification potential of bank returns from developed and emerging America. We draw our results by applying a directional spillover index, the tail-event driven network (TENET) and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods on bank returns. We find that the spillovers and connectedness among banks from emerging America are noticeably smaller than those among banks from developed America. The largest emerging market spillover transmitters and receivers are the banks from Brazil, followed by the banks from Chile. The largest developed market spillover transmitter is JP Morgan Chase. The connectedness among banks from developed America is dominated by the banks from the USA, relative to those from Canada. The total connectedness of the emerging market banks is more intensified than that of the banks from developed America due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio optimization shows that in developed America, the largest banks from the USA are the largest risk contributors to total portfolio risk, whereas the banks from Canada contribute the least risk. In emerging America, the banks from Brazil contribute the most risk to total portfolio risk while the banks from Peru and one bank from Colombia contribute the least risk. The portfolio of banks from emerging America offers greater diversification potential and lower total portfolio allocation risk.     

How do stock price indices absorb the COVID-19 pandemic shocks?

To assess the resiliency of stock price indices during the COVID-19 crisis, this study provides a distinctive perspective; that is, we evaluate the ability of stock price indices to absorb COVID-19 shocks. We construct the measures of absorptive intensity and duration to identify a stock price’s absorptive capacity. We then employ the Granger causality test and a topology network approach to investigate the interactions of absorptivity among stock price indices. Our results show that stock price absorptivity varies over time and across countries and industries. The US and the Brazil stock indices have relatively high absorptive intensity while short duration. The health care industry shows distinctive trend in absorptive intensity from the other industries. The intensity of the non-cyclical industries such as utilities and consumer staples is high, while the cyclical industries such as banking, real estate, and energy have lower absorptive intensity. Moreover, the utilities, consumer staples, and financials industries are the main resiliency transmitters.     

A possible adverse effect of needing to issue new equity in the future

This research develops a model of how a need to issue new equity in the future can have an adverse affect on a stock's current price, value, and beta. In particular, if the market error in pricing a stock is positively correlated with the return on the market portfolio of all assets, losses from having to issue equity in the future at a distressed price will result in the stock having a higher beta and a lower current market value. To avoid this situation, corporations are motivated to hold greater financial slack.