Patterns of Trade and Growth across Cones

This paper examines the implications of the Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) Model for the patterns of production and trade that will emerge as a country grows. It focuses primarily on world equilibria that include two or more cones of diversification. Starting with the textbook model of two factors and two goods, growth paths for production and trade are derived in terms of a country's capital-labor ratio relative to that of the world. With additional goods and countries, multiple cones create a ladder of comparative advantage that a country will climb as it accumulates capital relative to the world. With additional factors as well, more complicated patterns can emerge. In a three-factor model based on Krueger (1977), a country with fixed land, growing labor, and faster growing capital can first work its way down the ladder of comparative advantage before climbing back up. Using a graphical representation due to Leamer (1987) of a more general three-factor model, cones of diversification with large numbers of goods take the form of polygons that a growing country may pass through, then cross between. In all cases, the lesson of the HO Model is that growth causes repeated and extreme changes in patterns of specialization and trade over time.     

Vehicle currency pricing and its positive welfare consequences under optimal monetary policy

Using a two-country general equilibrium model, this paper analytically derives the possibility of positive welfare consequences of vehicle currency use in invoicing international trades. Such vehicle currency use is prominent in the data. The literature points out welfare loss under optimal monetary policy due to vehicle currency pricing relative to the flexible price equilibrium outcome, modeling only tradable goods. By introducing nontradable goods and their sector-specific productivity shocks, this paper provides a closed-form condition under which one country's welfare is higher under optimal monetary policy if its exports are invoiced with the other country's currency than if invoiced with its own currency, given that the other country's exports are invoiced with the producer's currency. That is, this paper derives a condition under which vehicle currency pricing is preferred by the nonvehicle currency country to producer currency pricing.     

Implications of Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Nontradable Goods for International Policy Cooperation

This paper investigates the welfare consequences of international policy cooperation by simultaneously introducing the following three elements in a standard two-country general equilibrium model: (i) general degrees of exchange rate pass-through, (ii) nontradable goods and their sector-specific productivity shocks, and (iii) general weights on goods in Cobb–Douglas consumption indices. There are two channels for possible mutual welfare gains from policy cooperation: First, cooperation can compensate for insufficient changes in the terms of trade when the degree of exchange rate pass-through is intermediate. Second, countries can cooperate in reaction to shocks in the nontradable goods sectors. This second channel is revealed by deriving an analytical condition for welfare gains under full pass-through and this condition is characterized by the weights in the consumption indices and the variances of sector-specific productivity shocks. Numerical evaluation demonstrates that when the two countries are symmetric and equal weights on consumption goods are assumed, welfare gains from cooperation increase as symmetric pass-through elasticity increases, which implies that the second channel dominates the first, whose effect on welfare gains is nonmonotonic in pass-through elasticity.     

On the trade,growth, and welfare effects of intellectual property rights protection

To examine how intellectual property rights protection affects trade, growth, and welfare, I develop a two-country R&D-based growth model in which final goods firms in both countries determine the range of imported varieties in the overall use of intermediate inputs. I show that strengthening patent protection in either country increases the range of imported varieties of intermediate goods and stimulates economic growth in the country that strengthened patent protection. Moreover, I also show that the Nash equilibrium level of patent protection is stronger than the globally optimal level of patent protection.     

汇率波动、出口结构与贸易福利——基于要素流动与世界经济失衡的分析

研究世界经济失衡背景下,汇率波动对一国出口商品结构和贸易福利的影响具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。本文通过构建不完全竞争模型,研究了世界经济失衡条件下汇率波动对劳动力资源无限供给的国家(以中国为代表)的出口结构与出口福利的影响,并就汇率波动对不同要素密集度产业的出口量、企业利润、就业和出口贸易福利等进行了模拟分析。研究表明:具有一定资本要素密集度的劳动密集型产业的出口受汇率波动的影响最大;劳动密集型产业的出口受到的影响较大;资本密集型产业的出口所受的影响较小;汇率波动对各种产业出口幅度的不同影响将改变一国的出口商品结构。     

The impact of intraindustry trade on the natural rate of unemployment in two simple models

This paper builds in two popular versions of the theory of equilibrium unemployment into a world economy engaged purely in intraindustry trade of differentiated products. We show that free trade through increasing the range of varieties available for consumption and expanding economies of scale leads to a lowering of the equilibrium rates of unemployment in all participating countries. Thus, we demonstrate channels through which international trade alleviates the problem of high unemployment in each country engaged in pure intraindustry trade.     

Inspection,testing errors and trade in tainted products

This paper examines international trade and inspection involving tainted products in a model of quality choice, facing fears that globalization is the cause of numerous food incidents. Particularly, we ask the following questions: (i) What are the conditions under which foreign firms choose to produce tainted goods? (ii) Does globalization via freer trade lower product safety? (iii) Why are goods imported even though they are known to be harmful? We show the existence of a free trade Nash equilibrium characterized by production and trade of high-quality non-tainted products. However, free trade cannot prevent the export of tainted goods, because the foreign firm may deviate under different combinations of parameters. We identify self-correcting mechanisms such as nationalism and a political-economy re-allocation of public resources in favor of customs authorities. Nevertheless, we also uncover activities that exacerbate tainted production like errors of testing and sabotage by rival firms.     

Impact of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation in ASEAN

This study attempts to evaluate the potential economic effects of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation of trade in goods and services among the ASEAN member states (AMSs) by applying economy-wide simulation analysis based on a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We conduct a set of simulations to capture the effects of establishing free trade agreements (FTAs) in which the AMSs participate. Three key components affecting the impacts of FTAs are reduction of tariffs on goods, lowering of barriers to trade in services, and saving time-costs arising from logistics. Simulation results revealed that reducing trade barriers has a significantly positive impact on economic welfare. Although there are differences in the magnitude of positive contributions to welfare, all of the FTAs in which the AMSs participate tend to raise welfare. Among the FTAs examined in this study, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leads to the largest positive effects on real GDP for most of the AMSs.     

加入WTO后延边医药的发展前景

加入WTO对我国卫生事业的改革与发展,既是机遇,又是挑战.我们要深入研究和分析其利弊得失,我国医疗服务业也将在WTO规定的"服务贸易总协定"框架体系下对外开放、参与国际竞争.针对我国及延边现状,制定切实可行的对策,调整政府职能,清理相关法律法规,依法行政,规范管理,有利于我国医药卫生事业的健康发展.     

Autarky in Franco's Spain: The costs of a closed economy

Between the 1940s and 1970s, Spain used a variety of economic policies that hindered international trade. Because the mix of tariffs, quotas, administrative barriers, and exchange rate regimes varied greatly over time, the quantification of the effect of the various trade policies on international trade in this period is particularly elusive. In this paper, we use historical bilateral trade flows and a structural gravity model to quantify the evolution of Spain's border thickness, a summary measure of its barriers to international trade. We find that Spain's borders in the period 1948–75 were thicker than those of any other country in Western Europe, even after the liberalization of trade that started in 1959. These comparatively higher impediments to international trade implied substantial negative effects on consumer welfare. We estimate that accumulated welfare costs over the period 1948–75 exceed 20 per cent of a year's total consumption.     

Towards a welfare model of trade and multinational firms with oligopolistic competition

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model in a world with two-symmetric countries. It explains welfare gains from international trade and horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the economy with firm heterogeneity and variable markups stemming from oligopolistic competition. My model shows that the pro-competitive effects of trade and horizontal FDI happen because trade openness induces an increase in product market competition that reduces markups and toughens selection, increasing aggregate productivity. The most significant contribution of the paper is that multinational firms, via horizontal FDI, produce the most significant welfare gains through the toughest selection and lowest markups.     

A Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson Model of Immigration and Capital Transfers

Given that the flow of immigrants from a developing country to an industrialized country increases with the gap in living standards, a welfare version of a Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson model is developed in which the equilibrium level of per capita utility in the developing country is some fixed fraction of that in the industrialized country. In searching for an optimal combination of immigration to the industrial country and capital transfer to the poorer country in order to raise that country's standard of living and reduce the number of emigrants, it is found that the international optimum is a corner solution with zero immigration and a positive capital transfer.     

Increasing Returns,the Choice of Technology,and the Gains from Trade

This paper studies the implications of international trade in a general equilibrium model in which the returns to scale are internal and firms choose their production technologies. The production function generated from internal increasing returns and the choice of technology leads to returns to scale similar to those based on external increasing returns. Trade always increases a country's welfare in a two-sector model in which the agricultural sector has constant returns to scale and average cost in the manufacturing sector may decrease without being bounded asymptotically by a given level of marginal cost. Why a small country may lose from trade under external increasing returns is also illustrated.     

A theory of international currency: Competition and discipline

We explicitly consider strategic interaction between governments to study currency competition and its effects on the circulation of currencies and welfare in a two-country two-currency search-theoretic model. Each government finances public goods by means of seigniorage. Compared with a regime with two local currencies, a regime with one international currency allows the issuer of the international currency to reduce the inflation tax while collecting more seigniorage, and forces the other issuer to raise the rate to compensate for a diminished tax base. However, the country with a local currency is sometimes constrained by an inflation discipline: the more open a country is, the stronger is the discipline. Strategic selection of equilibrium gives rise to a further inflation discipline: the larger country tries to have its currency circulate abroad, while the smaller country tries to prevent the circulation of Foreign currency.     

绿色壁垒对中国对外贸易的影响及对策研究

随着世界经济贸易一体化的发展,国际上用关税和传统的非关税措施来限制发展中国家商品进口的余地已经很小,绿色贸易壁垒以其鲜明的时代特征日益成为国际贸易发展的主要关卡。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和主要的贸易大国,许多产品已经或即将受到发达国家的绿色壁垒的影响,如何很好地应对绿色壁垒,已成为我国所面临的重要课题。     

论超主权国际货币的构建对世界经济的影响

金融危机的不断发生暴露出现行的国际货币体系的诸多弊端和不足,构建超主权国际货币则是国际货币制度改革的方向。汇率的稳定以及国际储备资产价值的稳定对于一国国际经济的发展尤为重要,为此世界各国希望有一种有效的国际储备货币以减轻汇率波动所带来的负面影响,这种国际储备货币便是超主权货币。文章从国际货币体系对国际贸易和国际金融的影响方面进行了探讨,进一步分析了超主权国际货币的构建对世界经济的影响。     

Rebalancing and the Chinese VAT: Some numerical simulation results

This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and receive welfare benefits by switching the value added tax (VAT) regime from the current destination principle to an origin principle. We modify the traditional general equilibrium tax model to capture endogenous trade imbalances along with endogenous factor supply, a fixed exchange rate and a non-accommodative monetary policy structure which supports the Chinese trade imbalance. We calibrate model parameters to 2008 data and simulate counterfactual equilibrium for VAT tax basis switches in which the trade imbalance changes. Our results suggest that given China's trade surplus VAT regime switching to an origin basis can decrease China's trade surplus by over 40%, and additionally increase Chinese and world welfare. This has implications for present G20 discussions on finding ways to adjust global trade imbalances.     

黑龙江省民营企业国际化发展策略

近年来,黑龙江省民营经济发展势头强劲,对社会的贡献越来越大.然而,随着市场竞争的激烈,民营企业遇到了很多难题,走国际化发展道路势在必行.为此,必须采取以下措施:低端产品向高端市场挺进;从发展中国家市场入手;向拉美国家市场进军;收购或兼并国外企业;与国外的企业合资或联营;利用国际性活动促销;开展境外加工贸易;设法跨越国外的绿色贸易壁垒.     

Heterogeneous Productivity and the Gains from Trade and FDI

Nontraded goods account for a major share of GDP in most economies, but have not been incorporated in the welfare analysis of monopolistic-competition models with heterogeneous productivity. This paper extends Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (American Economic Review 94(1):300–316, 2004) to explore welfare effects in the presence of a nontraded good. We derive new analytical results about how the gains from trade and FDI are determined and affected by key parameters in the case of symmetric countries. The model is calibrated to a country group that includes all major developed countries. The gains from openness (trade and FDI) are found to be substantial (between 3.24 and 6.27 per cent of income) even if nontraded goods represent a major part of the economy. Most of these gains are attributed to trade rather than FDI.     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.