未来择偶男性比女性究竟多多少?

使用人口年龄递进模型,分四种方案对男性择偶拥挤态势作了预测,对结果进行了比较。出生人口性别比升高影响择偶的重要时段在2040年前后,届时男性比女性将多出2000万左右,而壮年未婚高峰亦将以同样的规模出现在21世纪50年代。从2020年以后的几十年间,我国婚配比例将始终处在男多女少的状态,男性择偶拥挤的状况将难以改变。     

中国未来婚姻挤压研究

中国的男孩偏好和对女孩的歧视导致了男性婚姻挤压。在潜在初婚比模型的基础上,使用标准化初婚频率和去进度效应方法设计了两种新的模型,并与现有模型结合,研究中国婚姻挤压状况。在潜在初婚比基础上开发的模型所得到的结论基本相同。2016年到2046年的30年时间里,婚姻市场上男性和女性的潜在初婚比都在1.15以上;2060年之后保持在1.05-1.08水平。从2000年开始,中国会面临严重的男性婚姻挤压,2016年至2046年平均每年过剩男性在120-150万之间,2060年之后每年在50万之下。如果出生性别比得不到有效控制,则未来男性婚姻挤压情况将严重得多。     

中国出生性别比偏高的长期人口后果

20世纪80年代以来,中国的人口出生性别比出现了迅速、持续增高的现象和趋势,这对未来中国人口的发展会产生不可忽视的影响。根据不同的性别比方案预测我国人口未来百年的发展状况,考察出生性别比偏高对人口总量、出生人口规模、总人口抚养比以及婚姻市场的性别比等产生的影响。出生性别比偏高会降低出生人口规模、加速人口老龄化以及造成婚姻挤压等人口后果。     

社会变迁与出生性别比转折点来临

20世纪80年代以来中国出生性别比持续攀升,主要原因在于胎儿性别鉴定与性别选择性人工流产从无到有与由少变多。但伴随经济增长与社会变迁,歧视性性别偏好逐渐失去赖以存在的土壤,那些诱致出生性别比失调的因素不是被消除就是被弱化,从而为出生性别比在高位的回落创造了条件。促使中国出生性别比回复正常的社会经济基础已经逐渐具备,这意味着出生性别比由上升转而下降的转折点已经或将要来临。     

War,Marriage Markets,and the Sex Ratio at Birth

In belligerent countries, male‐to‐female sex ratios at birth increased during and shortly after the two world wars. These rises occurred amidst dramatically changed marriage‐market conditions caused by war‐related declines in adult sex ratios, and still defy explanation. Based on county‐level census data for the German state of Bavaria in the years just before and immediately after World War II, we explore the reduced‐form relationship between changes in marriage‐market tightness (the adult sex ratio) and changes in the offspring sex ratio, and we discuss potential mechanisms that might link the two. Our results suggest that war‐induced shortfalls of men significantly increased the percentage of boys among newborns.     

中国人口出生性别比的空间计量分析

利用中国2000年人口普查数据中各省市的人口出生性别比数据,定量检验了经济、教育、医疗及计划生育政策等因素对人口出生性别比的影响。人口出生性别比在地理上存在集聚现象,空间地理因素对其影响显著;教育和医疗水平对出生性别比的直接影响较小,但它们会通过空间地理因素、经济和计划生育政策等因素间接影响出生性别比。计划生育政策对人口出生性别比的影响最显著。经济及医疗水平越高出生性别比越低,教育水平越高出生性别比越高,计划生育政策越宽松出生性别比越低。     

胎次-激化双重效应:中国生育政策与出生性别比关系的理论构建与实证研究

通过构建"胎次-激化双重效应"理论模型,解读生育政策与出生性别比关联的潜在机制,并利用宏观数据予以检验。政策与出生性别比的失衡存在直接和间接双重关系;生育政策的刚性制约和一孩半生育政策赋予胎次和激化效应特殊含义:(1)一孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比偏高、一孩半政策地区二胎及以上胎次的出生性别比极度失衡,显现"激化效应";(2)政策的多样性使部分低位女胎与男胎一样受欢迎,使一孩半政策及二孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比趋于正常,产生"胎次效应"。可见,政策越强,低位和高位女胎都不受重视,均会遭遇人工流产;相反,在相对宽松的政策环境下,低位女胎所受的歧视程度相对减弱。     

中国的女孩生存:历史、现状和展望

基于已有的数据、研究成果及中国政府和社会的干预实践,对有关改善中国女孩生存的研究和实践进行回顾式的评述和展望。中国一直存在对女性的歧视,近年来中国持续升高的出生性别比和偏高的女孩死亡水平,反映出女性社会地位低下和女孩生存风险恶化。对女孩的歧视包括出生前和出生后的歧视。描述了中国高出生性别比和偏高女孩死亡水平的水平、趋势和区域差异,分析了女孩生存环境恶化的直接和间接原因及其引发的人口和社会后果。通过比较国际社会的经验和中国政府及社会的认识与行动,讨论了改善中国女孩生存的前景及相应的措施。     

Ultrasonography and Sex Ratios in China

This paper directly measures the causal effects of sex-selective abortions on the sex ratio at birth by exploiting the exogenous county-level variation in the availability of B-ultrasound machines. Using data from the 1990 Census of Fujian Province and local records on the introduction time of B-ultrasound machines, we find that the availability of B-ultrasound machines increases the sex ratio at birth by 0.025 in rural areas and 0.117 in urban areas. The rise of sex ratio is especially significant for second births in rural areas when the first birth is a girl.     

人口生态视角下的我国出生人口性别比问题研究

保持出生人口性别比正常,实现人入口生态平衡,是社会可持续发展的基础.出生人口性别比持续偏高已使我国人口生态问题日益显现.文章分析了我国出生人口性别比持续偏高的根源,从生育文化、法律法规、农村养老保障制度、奖励帮扶、人口政策等方面提出了治理出生人口性别比持续偏高的对策.     

Territorial problems relating to the structure of employment in terms of sex

Future development plans in Russia should take into account the fact that the employment opportunities which exist in a specific geographical area will exert an influence on the sex ratios in the population of that area, and the sex ratios, in turn, will affect reproductive capacity of that population. When development schemes, in a particular region, create a demand primarily for a type of labor traditionally associated with only one sex, the demographic structure will adjust to this demand. For example, in Kameshkovo, light industry predominates and generally women fulfill the labor requirements in this type of enterprise. The labor demand for women has resulted in a disproportionate sex ratio in the community; there are 154 women/100 men. Sometimes the demographic structure will resist the pressures created by the labor demands and individuals will, instead of migrating, seek employment in fields traditionally associated with the opposite sex. In cities located in the Vladimir and Ivanovo regions textile industries, traditionally associated with a female labor force, predominant, and these textile industries employ a higher proportion of men than textile industries located in other regions. In areas where heavy industry predominates, the number of men employed exceeds the number of employed women, and wages are high enough so that only one spouse must work; women may then devote more time to family matters and this is reflected in the higher birth rates associated with these areas. In areas where light industry predominates, more women are employed and wages are lower. Generally both spouses must work and as a result birth rates are lower. Future development plans should attempt to create an equal demand for the labor of both sexes. Ideal sex ratios for the population and for the labor force were calculated. Tables depict 1) % of employed workers by sex for selected cities and industries; 2) proportion of women employed, birth rate, and natural increases by territorial units; 3) sex ratios in the labor force and the population by type of industry for 7 regions; and 4) size of city by sex ratio.     

“中国人口性别比”:我们知道什么,还应该知道什么

结合文献梳理,提出了人口性别比研究中存在的若干问题,并运用相关数据进行检验。我国出生人口性别比数据中既存在女性的漏报瞒报,也存在男性的漏报瞒报;1949年以来中国总体人口性别比与出生人口性别比的关系不对应;婚姻挤压由于存在连续性,靠扩大婚龄差无法缓解;男孩偏好是个文化观念问题,更是个社会结构与制度问题;当前独生子女政策正面临考验;人口调查与数据分析中还存在值得认真面对的技术问题。     

Indian women: well-being and survival

The authors examine sex differentials in sustenance and survival in developing countries using the example of India. Lower female life expectancy at birth and the declining ratio of females to males are discussed as evidence of female deprivation. Consideration is given to the feeding, survival, and neglect of female children, to differences in use of medical facilities by sex, and to regional differences by state. This pattern of discrimination is found to persist even in urban areas.     

Girls for Sale? Child Sex Ratio and Girl Trafficking in India

ABSTRACT

Illegal trafficking of girls results from their disadvantageous position in society, often reflected by preference for sons and neglect of daughters. India has both higher levels of illegal trafficking of girls and abnormal child sex ratios in favor of boys. This paper examines if the skewed sex ratio in India is associated with trafficking of girls. Using panel data from twenty-nine Indian states from 1980 to 2011, the study finds that a 100-unit increase in the child sex ratio is associated with a 0.635 percent increase in girl trafficking. Further, the association is heterogeneous by women’s empowerment, crime against women, and party rule in the state, and the association between the child sex ratio and trafficking of girls is stronger and larger in magnitude in states with greater women’s empowerment. Overall, it appears the results are driven both by greater reporting and a greater incidence of illegal girl trafficking.     

二十世纪中国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的两次显著变化

利用我国1930—2000年不同时期的生命表资料,分析了20世纪30年代以来我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险的变化,探讨了我国生殖健康政策在变化中的作用。20世纪我国育龄人群男女性相对死亡风险有两次显著变化。第一次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险处在较高水平上发生的。在上个世纪50年代之前,育龄女性的死亡风险高于育龄男性,到50年代育龄女性死亡风险从高于育龄男性向低于育龄男性转变。第二次显著变化是在育龄人群死亡风险已下降到一个相对较低的水平上发生的。从上个世纪70年代开始到上个世纪末,育龄女性死亡风险的下降速度显著高于育龄男性,随着时间的推移育龄人群死亡水平的性别差异呈现扩大趋势。     

Surplus men and scarce women: The impact of mating competition on the desire for sons in China*

We conducted this research to explore the possible factors shaping son preference, with a view to understanding the persistently high male/female sex ratio. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and the Population Census of China, we find a significant impact of regional sex ratio on people's preferences for the sex of their future children. Specifically, the extent of son preference decreases with the increase in the male/female sex imbalance in the local area. We also find that sex imbalance has a positive impact on a wide range of outcomes that capture the pressure on males to enter marriage markets, such as regional housing prices, the number of houses owned, and family economic status. This result is consistent with the view that greater sex imbalance exerts larger pressure on men in the marriage market, leading to changes in son preference. Omitted variable bias is addressed by using climate changes in the month preceding the fertilization period as an instrument for sex ratio. Instrumental sex ratio negatively impacts son preference, offering strong support for our hypothesis.     

Sex Differences in the Ultimatum Game: An Evolutionary Psychology Perspective

In the two-person ultimatum game, an allocator is required to split a given sum of money with a recipient. Subsequently the recipient can either accept or reject the offer. If it is accepted, both players receive their respective splits, while if it is rejected neither of them get anything. Using evolutionary psychology as the theoretical framework, we predicted and found that males made more generous offers when pitted against a female as opposed to a male. While females made equal offers independently of the sex of the recipient. That male allocators are altruistic towards female recipients and competitive with male recipients is construed as a manifestation of social rules, which evolve from the male pre-disposition to use resources for attracting mates. In contrast, females have not evolved such a pre-disposition, and thus, female allocators are more concerned about fairness when making offers to recipients. Several alternate explanations of the above findings are discussed and the evolutionary explanation is concluded as the most parsimonious one. Other potential moderators that are amenable to evolutionary explanations, namely, physical attractiveness, age and ethnicity of participants, are also discussed in this context. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries: the case of Central America and the Caribbean

Inter-country differences in infant and child mortality are explained by looking at demographic, economic, health and educational factors. A model is presented in which the infant mortality rate, the child mortality rate, and the birth rate are endogenous. The model is tested using cross-national multiple regression analysis and simulations. The presence of simultaneity is confirmed. Introducing non-economic factors transforms the character of the relationship between exogenous and endogenous variables, from a 'diminishing returns' to an 'increasing returns' one. The role played by public expenditure in education, vaccination coverage, low birth weight, female schooling, number of nurses, access to safe water, or malnutrition can be assessed, as well as that played by 'structural adjustment' variables such as the inflation rate or the external debt to GNP ratio. Infant and child mortality can be diminished everywhere in the region with relatively small amounts of expenditure. Disappointing outcomes in some countries obey political rather than economic problems. It would be a mistake to blame the debt crisis.     

生育控制下的生育率下降与性别失衡

从生育控制的视角,运用孩次性别递进理论,分析生育意愿与生育率、生育性别比的关系,得到了在生育性别自然规律下达到生育目标最低生育率YFR唯一存在的结论。给出了生育目标YFR的计算方法。探讨了YFR在生育性别监测和预警中的应用。     

Housing prices and son preference: Evidence from China’s housing reform

Do high housing prices reduce the demand for sons? As Chinese parents need to acquire houses for their sons’ marriage, high housing prices increase the cost of sons relative to daughters. We exploit China's housing reform in the 1990s as a natural experiment to identify the effect of housing prices on demand for sons. We find that housing prices have no effect on the probability of having a son at the first birth. High housing prices reduce the probability of having a son at the second birth, especially when the first-born is a daughter. A 10% increase in housing prices reduces the probability of having a son at the second birth by 0.78 percentage points. The findings remain robust when using aggregate prefecture-cohort data for the post-reform period.