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A previously widely quoted study by Hal Lary (Imports of Manufactures from: Less Developed Countries) concluded that labour intensity should, under the postulates of the factor-proportions model, be useful for anticipating the future composition of LDC exports. In this paper, we empirically evaluate the utility of labour intensity as such a guide. As a first test recent changes in developing countries' market shares for Lary's labour intensive products are compared with those for other items. With few exceptions, the export performance for labour intensive goods was superior. Overall, the LDCs increased their market share for these products in spite of a generally declining competitive position in world trade. Separate (correlation) tests indicate that a direct relation exists between the degree of labour intensity of individual products and changes in developing countries' market shares. That is, the LDCs made the greatest gains in the most labour intensive products.Since labour intensity was shown to provide a guide to changes in developing country exports, we examined its implications for the future. Specifically, the National Bureau's indices of value added per employee were updated to gain insights into the probable composition of LDC trade in the 1980s. The results suggest that many of the products previously identified as being labour intensive, and therefore suitable for production and export by developing countries, would also be classified as likely LDC export items on the basis of 1976 production data. In fact, textiles, footwear, and furniture became relatively more labour intensive which suggests that the LDCs will put increased competitive pressure on developed country producers of these products over the next decade. However, our statistics also show that some miscellaneous manufactures and processed foods became more capital intensive. This indicates that LDCs may be losing their competitive edge in these products and are less likely to make sizeable market share gains in the future.  相似文献   

3.
Little is known about the nature of physical capital in the less-developed countries. This article addresses the lack of empirical study related to depreciation rates, which are a neglected but important ingredient of both micro and macro models and empirical analyses. Based on rich establishment-level survey data, and using a straightforward econometric approach, I estimate depreciation rates of physical capital invested in manufacturing enterprises in Indonesia. I estimate the depreciation rate to be between 8 and 14 %. These numbers compare roughly to published estimates for the U.S. I then investigate hypotheses related to heterogeneity of depreciation rates across different types of firms. Finally, I test the hypothesis that financially constrained firms use less durable investment goods.  相似文献   

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This paper analyses the sensitivity of firm performance to exchange rate fluctuations. In a two-country world, consisting of a developing domestic country and a developed foreign country, we show that this sensitivity is closely related with market structure and the share of imported inputs in total cost. When the share of imported inputs is low, depreciation leads to an increase in price cost margin. This increase intensifies in more competitive industries. When the imported input share is high, the price cost margin may decrease as a result of depreciation, and this effect becomes pronounced in more competitive industries. The empirical test where we used 3-digit Turkish Manufacturing industry data support most of the findings of our model.  相似文献   

6.
To sensitize graduate students in engineering to the multidisciplinary nature of decision making in contemporary situations, the elements of technological forecasting have been used as the basis for a graduate course. The principal objective is to use the technological forecasting approach in a structured problem resolution sequence, one of which is discussed here. Faced with a hypothetical problem of diversification in a medium-sized, high-technology organization, the student group employed objective trees, cross-impact matrices and structured interviews (Delphi rounds) in order to define quantitatively the nature and scope of opportunities open within the framework of economic, societal, political, and technological environments pertaining to their situation. Delphi-style debates, using a Consensor, were used to resolve group or individual conflicts. The exercise is intended to expedite adaptation of graduate engineers to the environment (industrial, social, etc.) within which they will be expected to perform as useful decision makers.  相似文献   

7.
The objective of this study is to throw some light on the question of direct tax incidence in a developing country like Greece. A two-sector model is built up which emphasises a number of duality aspects. In that respect the model deviates from the standard Harberger type models. Appropriate shifting formulas are then constructed. Making use of a set of plausible parameter values our findings suggest that the taxed input may avoid some portion of the tax burden even under a perfectly competitive environment.  相似文献   

8.
This paper adds to the literature by identifying the causality of corporate tax policy on firm innovation in a developing country. We exploit the China’s 2006 corporate income tax base reform to integrate the tax system between foreign-invested and state/collective-controlled firms as a natural experiment. The difference-in-differences strategy documents a positive effect of corporate tax deduction on firm patenting. The effect is particularly significant if a firm is of larger size or locates in eastern provinces. We also examine possible channels behind the findings, including changes in R&D and capital investment, intangible assets, financial constraints, and new product sales.  相似文献   

9.
We compare goods versus services liberalization in terms of welfare, outputs, and factor prices in Tunisia using a CGE model with multiple products, services and trading partners. Restraints on services trade involve both cross-border supply (tariff-equivalent price wedges) and on foreign ownership (monopoly-rent distortions and inefficiency costs). Goods-trade liberalization yields a modest gain in aggregate welfare. Reducing service barriers generate relatively large welfare gains and low adjustment costs. Services liberalization increases economic activity in all sectors and raise the real returns to both capital and labor. The results point to the potential importance of deregulating services provision for economic development.  相似文献   

10.
Fiscal crisis and fiscal reform in developing countries   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
In recent years, policy-makers in developing countries haveresponded to crisis of macroeconomic instability with two setsof measures: conventional stabilisation policies and policiesof economic liberalisation. The fiscal implications of thisdouble agenda are set out, following three lines of enquiry.First, how can policies be kept consistent, when some liberalisationmeasures have large adverse fiscal consequences? Second, cana fiscal deficit be reduced without damaging the provision ofpublic services vital for growth and poverty alleviation? Finally,since lack of tax revenue is usually the binding constrainton government intervention, how can this most easily be relaxed?  相似文献   

11.
Abstract.  Sticky price models based on menu costs predict that countries with high trend inflation should have (i) smaller impact effects of demand shocks on output and (ii) less persistent output fluctuations, relative to low‐trend inflation countries. These predictions are tested, controlling for changes in trend inflation, using a country‐specific approach. The results do not support the second prediction. That prediction is also not robust to a modified measure of trend inflation that excludes episodes of hyperinflation. These findings suggest that while price stickiness is important for understanding short‐run impact effects, real propagation mechanisms may drive persistence in output fluctuations.  相似文献   

12.
Emerging and frontier markets in Africa have witnessed various economic and financial reforms aimed at integrating the domestic markets into the global financial market to attract investment. Whether these reforms promote high economic growth remains inconclusive. The paper applies the pooled mean group estimation technique to empirically re-investigate the link between financial market development, global financial crisis, and economic growth in selected African economies. The results strongly support our hypotheses that stock market and banking sector development promotes economic growth in the selected countries. Moreover, financial crisis reduce the positive effects of both the stock market and banking sector developments on economic growth. The study suggests that both the banking sector and stock market are important to deliver the long-run economic growth that the African region desired. Moreover, effort should be made to enact policy measures that would ensure development of the stock market which has received inadequate attention.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper we analyze the increase in wage inequality observed in the Uruguayan labour market during the last decade, by studying how the changes in minimum wage and returns to education affected the wage structure. Although in most developed countries a significant proportion of the increase in wage inequality is explained by a fall in the real minimum wage, this is not the case for the Uruguayan labour market. We observe that returns to education increased significantly, which could explain the increase of wage dispersion by its effects on the upper tail of the wage distribution. To derive these conclusions we follow a parametric and nonparametric quantile regression approach.  相似文献   

14.
This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. — which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias — and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein — hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although estimates using aggregate data and imposing homogeneous coefficients provide little evidence of PPP, findings with disaggregated data and heterogeneous coefficient estimators offer strong support. The results also suggest the presence of small-sample bias as examined in Chen and Engel, but with little effect on the qualitative results. Tradable goods and non-tradable goods show little distinction in convergence rates. Estimated half-lives are lower under flexible than fixed exchange rates and indicate rapid convergence during the Mexican peso crisis.  相似文献   

15.
Estimates of the joint effects of governmental health, education and family planning programs as well as sources of water on fertility, child mortality and schooling are obtained from combined district-level and household-level data from rural India. The estimates are used both to test the implications of a model of household decision-making and to assess the effectiveness of the joint, public provision of such services in shifting resources from increasing family size to augmenting human capital per person. The results appear consistent with household optimizing behavior and suggest that reductions in the costs of medical services, contraceptives and schooling and the improvement of water sources are mutually reinforcing alternatives for implementing the joint policy goals of reduced population growth and increased human capital formation.  相似文献   

16.
"A common hypothesis regarding the distribution of income is that it tends to become more unequal in the initial and middle stages of economic development, in part because of demographic changes. However, previous studies of the effect of demographic changes on income distribution are not based on the underlying micro determinants of the income components." In the present paper, "the micro determinants of the probability of receipt and amount received conditional on receipt of four income components are estimated for three regions defined by the degree of urbanization. Five simulations of hypothetical demographic changes are conducted. The simulated effects on some of the regional income component distributions are fairly considerable in regard both to equalizing the distributions and increasing the shares of the poorest. However, the overall effects are regressive in both urban and rural regions."  相似文献   

17.
Empirical studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) examine the presence or otherwise of an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of pollution and the level of income. Customarily, in the diagram of EKC the level of income is shown on the horizontal axis and that of pollution on the vertical axis. Thus, it is presumed that the relationship between income and pollution is one of unidirectional causality with income causing environmental changes and not vice versa. The validity of this presumption is now being questioned. It is being asserted that the nature and direction of causality may vary from one country to the other. In this paper, we present the results of a study of income–CO2 emission causality based on a Granger causality test to cross-country panel data on per capita income and the corresponding per capita CO2 emission data. Briefly, our results indicate three different types of causality relationship holding for different country groups. For the developed country groups of North America and Western Europe (and also for Eastern Europe) the causality is found to run from emission to income. For the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan causality from income to emission is obtained. Finally, for the country groups of Asia and Africa the causality is found to be bi-directional. The regression equations estimated as part of the Granger causality test further suggest that for the country groups of North America and Western Europe the growth rate of emission has become stationary around a zero mean, and a shock in the growth rate of emission tends to generate a corresponding shock in the growth rate of income. In contrast, for the country groups of Central and South America, Oceania and Japan a shock in the income growth rate is likely to result in a corresponding shock in the growth rate of emission. Finally, causality being bi-directional for the country groups of Asia and Africa, the income and the emission growth rates seemed to reinforce each other.  相似文献   

18.
The purpose of this paper is to attempt to analyze the dynamic relationship between the Korean Stock Exchange (KSE) and Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (KOSDAQ), two competing markets at the Korean stock market, in the viewpoint of technological forecasting of competition. The Lotka–Volterra system of equations, one well-known competitive diffusion models, is adopted to represent the competitive situations of the Korean stock market and it is estimated using daily empirical index data of KSE and KOSDAQ during 1997–2001. The results show that there existed a predator–prey relationships between two markets in which KSE acted as a prey for the time being after the emergence of KOSDAQ. This interaction was altered to symbiotic relationship and finally to pure competition relationship. We also perform an equilibrium analysis of the estimated Lotka–Volterra equations. As a result, we find that there is an equilibrium point in a dynamic sense. However, the equilibrium point could be unstable in the latest pure competition relationship.  相似文献   

19.
This article empirically examines the possible causal links between financial development and poverty in developing countries. To this end, we apply a modified form of traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short times series that are available. We conclude that the evidence supports the hypothesis that in the period of the 1970s–1980s financial development, measured by liquid assets of the financial system as a share of GDP or by money and quasi money as a percentage of GDP, leads to the reduction of moderate poverty. These results do not appear for the period of the 1980s–1990s or when financial development is measured by the ratio of the value of credits granted by financial intermediaries to the private sector to GDP, whereas they seem to be strengthened by using summary measures of financial development. Likewise, our analysis does not show any evidence of Granger causality from poverty to financial development.  相似文献   

20.
This paper investigates how alternative measures of the real exchange rate respond to trade policy and terms of trade changes. It employs a modelling framework which endogenises the price of non-tradeable goods, and applies the model to price and real exchange rate data for Saudi Arabia for the period 1982–92. The results show that the popular propositions about the response of the real exchange rate to terms of trade or trade policy changes do not necessary hold. This is a consequence of the measure of the real exchange rate utilized, rather than a product of Saudi Arabia's capital richness.  相似文献   

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