Problems of forecasting and technology assessment

A broad appraisal of forecasts of U.S. national trends in population, economics, transportation, energy-use, and technology reveals some of the limitations of forecasting and some avenues for improvement. The development of greater methodological sophistication has not significantly improved forecast accuracy. The (often linear) deterioration of accuracy with lengthening of forecast time horizons proceeds regardless of method. Methodology expresses (and traces the implications of) core assumptions reflecting the forecasters' fundamental outlook. Sophisticated methodology cannot save a forecast based on faulty core assumptions.High inaccuracy results from the persistence of out-of-date core assumptions (“assumption drag”), caused by overspecialization, wishful thinking, the infrequency of forecast studies (due to the common preference for expensive approaches), and the weakness of sociopolitical forecasting. This diagnosis calls for more frequent, less elaborate, and interdisciplinary forecasting efforts.Sociopolitical forecasting, required both as a source of core assumptions for projecting other trends and to trace the social impact component of technology assessments, has suffered from a lack of specificity and meaningfulness. The greater uncertainty in forecasting technological developments requiring political decisions and large-scale programs indicates the importance of improving sociopolitical analysis. The social-indicators and scenario approaches are two means for achieving this improvement. Their potential contributions, as well as limitations, are reviewed.     

Forecasting MBT technologies using DEA and LR

First, this paper explores Main Battle Tank (MBT) data set with different statistical methods in order to decide the most appropriate variables as reliable yardsticks in applying technology forecasting (TF) using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) technique. It then applies TF using DEA method to forecast MBT technologies. This article attempts to predict technology development year of MBT commercialised from 1941 to 1994. This article presents the processes of TFDEA in detail and identifies some issues to search for appropriate input and output variables to forecast MBT technologies. The purpose of this study is to address some issues and identify an appropriate data to predict future trends of MBT technologies when using TFDEA and multiple linear regression tools. Finally, the study provides an understanding of the technological advances being sought in MBT technologies and information for use in making decisions regarding development strategy.     

Innovation forecasting

Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion, and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation, but most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation process models. We glean a number of concepts from various innovation models, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer the promise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of such bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form of technological forecasting we call “innovation forecasting.” This provides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of technological interdependencies, and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forecast. We illustrate by assessing prospects for ceramic engine technologies.     

Demand forecasting for multigenerational products combining discrete choice and dynamics of diffusion under technological trajectories

The discrete choice model generally captures consumers' valuation of the product's quality within the framework of a cross-sectional analysis, while the diffusion model captures the dynamics of demand within the framework of a time-series analysis. We propose an adjusted discrete choice model that incorporates the choice behavior of the consumer into the dynamics of product diffusion. In addition, a new estimation structure is proposed, within the framework of the time-series analysis, which enables the estimation of the discrete choice model on market-level data to be performed in such a way as to avoid the problem of price endogeneity and to obtain greater flexibility in forecasting demand. As an empirical application, the suggested model is applied to the case of the worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market. In forecasting future demand of DRAM generations, we integrate Moore's law and learning by doing to reflect the future technological trajectories of DRAM innovations, as well as consumers' consumption trends to reflect the dynamics of demand environments. As a result, the suggested model shows better performance in explaining the diffusion of new-generation product with limited number of data observations.     

关于技术前瞻研究的评介

作为当前创新体系管理的重要手段 ,技术前瞻研究所预测的范围已远远超出技术本身的发展趋势 ,它还包括技术发展的经济与社会背景和市场效应。对技术发展趋势的预测能力已成为国家或企业竞争优势的重大因素。作者具体评介了技术前瞻研究的发展历程、背景、任务、作用与预测方法 ,并阐述它对推动我国科技发展的意义     

The UK demand for steel

The paper suggests a short-run model of the demand for steel that may be used for forecasting future trends. The paper commences with consideration of a long-run model which is estimated using cointegration analysis. An error correction model is then developed to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. This can be used for the purpose of ex-post forecasting.     

Vacant technology forecasting using new Bayesian patent clustering

Vacant technology forecasting (VTF) is a technology forecasting approach to find technological needs for given industrial field in the future. It is important to know the future trend of developing technology for the R&D planning of a company and a country. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model for patent clustering. This is a VTF methodology based on patent data analysis. Our method is composed of Bayesian learning and ensemble method to construct the VTF model. To illustrate the practical way of the proposed methodology, we perform a case study of given technology domain using retrieved patent documents from patent databases in the world.     

Technological substitution forecasting with a model based on biological analogy

Although many models of technological substitution processes exist, only a few deal with multilevel technological substitution and still fewer may be easily applied to forecasting of real multilevel substitution processes. We propose a stochastic model of multilevel technological substitution and a forecasting method based on this model. In the author's opinion, the developed algorithm may be easily applied to forecasting various technological substitution processes. An example of the application of this algorithm to forecasting of world energy consumption is presented. The algorithm makes possible an investigation of the impact of future innovation on the system's behavior.     

Advances in evolution and genetics: Implications for technology strategy

Genetic and evolutionary principles are of great importance to technology strategists, both directly (as in the forecasting of genetic engineering technologies) and as a source of metaphor and perspective on socio-technical change. Recent rapid progress in the molecular sciences have revealed new genetic mechanisms of evolution, and introduced new controversies of interpretation. How do these recent developments affect technology forecasting and our view of technological evolution? This paper provides a quick primer for TFSC readers on several new developments in evolution and genetics, comments upon a number of common misconceptions and pitfalls in evolutionary thinking, and critically describes some controversies and open questions, introducing key readings and sources. It relates genetic and evolutionary knowledge, analogies and metaphors to areas of interest to researchers in technology forecasting and assessment, noting possible future directions. The paper concludes with an overview of the other papers in this special section.     

From Imitation to Innovation: The Evolution of R&D Capabilities and Learning Processes in the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

Since the mid 1990s the Indian pharmaceutical industry has emerged as a leading supplier of generic drugs to both developing and developed countries.The movement of the Indian pharmaceutical industry along the R&D value chain represents a remarkable shift from an importer to an innovator of drugs. The Indian government's industrial and technology policies along with changes in regulation of intellectual property rights played a crucial role in shaping this development of R&D capability. Using the 'capability creation model' this paper discusses the learning processes and stages involved in this dramatic accumulation of technological capability. This analysis shows that the Indian pharmaceutical industry has followed a trajectory from duplicative imitation to creative imitation to move up the value chain of pharmaceutical R&D. Finally as a result of changes in patent law the industry is learning to develop capabilities in innovative R&D. The basic and intermediate technological capabilities gained from imitative learning gave these firms a solid base for development of competence in advanced innovative R&D. These findings have implications for government policies as well as firm strategies in other developing countries albeit with some limitations due to global harmonisation of patent laws being promoted by the World Trade Organization.     

Technological forecasting and assessment: Science and/or mythology?

A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C, West Churchman's recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume that the inquiry systems which are appropriate for “well-structured” problems are also appropriate for “ill structured” problems. It is argued that technological forecasting is an inherently ill-structured problem and therefore requires a methodology which is uniquely suited to such problems. The Dialectical and Singerian Inquiring Systems are proposed as particularly appropriate for ill-structured problems.     

New venture planning: The role of technological forecasting

A system for the analysis and planning of new ventures is developed which provides a structure for the application of logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to decision problems which (1) involve a significant portion of an organization's resources, (2) have long term effects on a firm's future success, and (3) are characterized by uncertainty in many of the factors important to the decision. The system is based on a synthesis of various analytical techniques from the fields of technological forecasting, decision analysis, and system dynamics, and provides a general methodology for rank-ordering new venture candidates and determining the resource allocation level required for new venture portfolios designed to achieve long term growth objectives. The role played by technological forecasting in new venture planning and in the selection of engineering projects is discussed.     

Forecasting welding technology

The case for multinational is described. The experience of the CMEA countries in the field is original from the point of view of (a) a general procedure of the forecasters' interaction developed in the permanent system in the followup of trends and the forecasting of welding science and technology; (b) complex use of different kinds of information (expert estimation, patents, publications, etc.); (c) the relation to decision-making in international technological policy.     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

Logistic analysis of recent environmental interest

Progress in some fields has been shown to occur through a sequence of high-activity periods that often exhibit logistic growth patterns. Previously, this was demonstrated for local environmental issues during the U.S. Progressive Era through an analysis of environmental (aerial and water-borne) diseases. Later (1970s and 1980s), logistic growth trends in interest (articles and legislation) in national environmental concerns was demonstrated. Recently, environmental attention has included global issues resulting in several international environmental treaties that attempt to address the concerns. Logistic analysis is applied to the recent trends of interest in international environmental issues. This interest is measured at many levels: popular magazine articles, popular books, research-oriented books, and international treaties. There are indications that the elevated level of international environmental interest might have passed the midpoint, in the 1990s, of a 5-decade period. This recent period is compared with previously identified periods concerning local and national environmental issues. Possible reasons for the trends include the recent increasing rate and scope of technological development and the related, perhaps delayed social response. Potential future trends might indicate the relative rate of technological development and social resolution of its impacts. A possible leading indicator is the business and governance response to new technologies, like nanotechnology, which might be responsibly developed to mitigate previous environmental issues without introducing new unintended environmental consequences.     

Technological forecasting activities in selected U.S. Federal Agencies

A research of seven technically oriented Federal agencies was made to determine: (1) the extent of technological forecasting activities are being conducted; (2) the extent these agencies apply technological forecasting; and (3) to identify the mechanism of technological forecasting application.     

A functional approach for studying technological progress: Application to information technology

This paper develops and assesses a broad functional category approach to arriving at metrics for assessing technological progress. The approach is applied to three functional categories of information technology — storage, transportation and transformation by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three functional categories. The results indicate generally continuous progress for each functional category independent of the specific underlying technological artifacts dominating at different times. Thus, the empirical results reported in this study indicate that the functional category approach offers a more stable and reliable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Therefore, this approach offers the promise of being more useful in technological forecasting for large-scale change even as its ability to forecast specific dominant technological trajectories has been compromised.     

Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model

Forecasts can be improved by combining separate forecasts obtained by different methods. The complementary nature of the scenario analysis and technological substitution models means that combining the two can obtain improved forecasts. The former has the strength of dealing with the uncertain future, while the later offers data-based forecasts of quantifiable parameters. This study thus proposes a process for combining the scenario analysis with the technological substitution model for discussing new generation technological developments. The proposed process not only has the strengths of scenario analysis, but also contains features that scenario analysis lacks, including predicting annual developments for future years, considering old technology development, and forecasting substitution of old technologies. This study uses the forecast of the market share of Fiber to the x in Taiwan over the next ten years as an example illustrating the proposed combined forecast process.     

基于科技视角与双周期模型的我国突发事件危机管理研究——以新型冠状病毒危机事件为例

2019年末爆发的新型冠状病毒是近年我国经历的一次波及范围广、影响巨大的突发性公共危机事件，科技发展与应用水平不足是触发此次危机事件的重要诱因。基于新型冠状病毒危机事件背景，构造了突发事件生命周期与管理周期的双周期曲线模型，探讨了不同危机管理阶段科学技术的重要作用，并在此基础上提出加速应急产业科技化发展、建立健全危机管理科技发展资金管理体系、完善危机管理科技人才队伍建设机制、进一步推动和加强国际科研合作的政策建议。