Spend More Today Safely: Using Behavioral Economics to Improve Retirement Expenditure Decisions With SPEEDOMETER Plans

This article examines how behavioral economics can be used to improve the spending decisions of retirees, using a SPEEDOMETER (or Spending Optimally Throughout Retirement) retirement expenditure plan that employs defaults within a choice architecture. The plan involves just four key behavioral nudges: (1) first, make a plan—ideally by being auto‐enrolled into one or with the help of a financial adviser; (2) automatic phasing of annuitization, which is designed to tackle the aversion to large irreversible transactions and losing control of assets, and so allows the greatest possible degree of flexibility in managing the rundown of retirement assets; (3) capital protection in the form of “money‐back” annuities that deals with loss aversion, that is, the fear of losing your money if you die early; and (4) the slogan “spend more today safely” that utilizes hyperbolic discounting to satisfy the human trait of wanting jam today, and to reinforce the idea that “buying an annuity is a smart thing to do.”     

Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Sticky or Discerning Money?

Participants in defined contribution (DC) retirement plans rarely adjust their portfolio allocations, suggesting that their investment choices and consequent money flows are sticky and not discerning. However, participants’ inertia could be offset by DC plan sponsors, who adjust the plan's investment options. We examine these countervailing influences on flows into U.S. mutual funds. We find that flows into funds from DC assets are more volatile and exhibit more performance sensitivity than non‐DC flows, primarily due to adjustments to the investment options by the plan sponsors. Thus, DC retirement money is less sticky and more discerning than non‐DC money.     

Worries and plans as individuals approach retirement

The primary objective of an employment-based retirement plan is to provide a secure and adequate income for workers throughout retirement. In the defined contribution (DC) framework, asset accumulation is a means to the end, but not the end. Drawing retirement income from savings and paying for health care expenses in retirement are the two issues that concern individuals the most as they approach retirement. This article examines the attitudes of near-retirees regarding these risks and their plans for managing them. The author discusses how DC plan design can have a major impact on how individuals convert their retirement savings to retirement income; differences in survey responses between those who have consulted a financial advisor or other financial professional and those who have not; and the role of trust in implementing advice.     

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

The Annuity Puzzle and an Outline of Its Solution

In his seminal 1965 paper, Yaari showed that, assuming actuarially fair annuity prices, uncertain lifetimes, and no bequest motives, utility-maximizing retirees should annuitize all of their wealth on retirement. Nevertheless, the markets for individual immediate life annuities in the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other developed countries have been small relative to other financial investment outlets competing for retirement savings. Researchers have found this situation puzzling, hence the so-called “annuity puzzle.” There are many possible explanations for the annuity puzzle, including “rational” explanations such as adverse selection, bequest motives, and incomplete markets; and “behaviorial” explanations, such as mental accounting, cumulative prospect theory, and mortality salience. We review the literature on the various plausible explanations given for the existence of the annuity puzzle, suggest ways of stimulating the demand for annuities, and suggest a few of the ingredients needed for further development of hybrid annuity products that may provide a solution to the puzzle.     

401(k) Investment Decisions and Social Security Reform

Abstract

This paper uses the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances to show that 401(k) participants with an underlying defined benefit plan are more likely to invest in equities than are participants whose 401(k) is their primary plan. This suggests that workers with a guaranteed source of retirement income are more likely to invest their other retirement assets more aggressively. Removing this guarantee might result in more conservative investment. Therefore, using current 401(k) asset allocation behavior to project income under a Social Security individual account system with reduced guaranteed benefits could overstate returns to these accounts, thus overstating their attractiveness relative to the current system.     

Asset allocation and age effects in retirement savings choices

We examine the asset allocation decisions of members of three large Australian retirement savings funds. Superannuation Guarantee legislation in 1992 made Australian employees compulsory investors by requiring employers to contribute a fixed proportion of earnings to a superannuation fund on behalf of employees. A majority of these employees can choose an investment strategy for these contributions. We examine how actual investment strategy and asset allocation choices of members change with age in view of the conventional wisdom that individuals allocate less to risky assets as they age and investments theory which provides conflicting advice on the issue.     

High-age implications of postretirement risks

The retirement world of the future is challenging because of the decline in defined benefit plans, low savings rates in the United States, increased longevity and the failure of many people to effectively plan for retirement. Drawing on a variety of studies and public opinion surveys, the authors of this article explain why a system that relies too much on people providing for themselves will have segments of the population who have inadequate retirement incomes due to a number of gaps, which pose the most risk at advanced ages. These gaps can occur because of difficulties in managing postretirement risk, acquiring inadequate savings in the first place and problematic public perceptions about retirement income risks.     

Sounds great, but what's in it for me? Helping employees understand their role in the retirement planning process

The communication of retirement plans by employers to their workers has greatly improved, but in many cases still falls short of getting employees to understand their roles in planning for their own retirement. The author states that a well-designed personalized retirement savings education program encourages employees to take ownership of their retirement plan. Three employee profiles are examined in the context of the personalized retirement education process.     

Helping tomorrow's retirees manage "distribution phase" risks

Much of employers' attention has focused on helping employees manage the accumulation of 401(k) plan assets rather than on helping them manage the distribution phase--the period during which employees begin drawing down their 401(k) savings to meet their retirement needs. Assisting employees in managing the distribution phase can play an important role in helping employers meet a range of workforce planning goals and ensuring a maximum return on the retirement dollars that have been invested by both employees and the company. By implementing a properly structured approach to help employees manage the distribution phase, employers can help them maximize the value of their retirement savings at little or no employer cost, thanks to the leverage of the company's group purchasing power and the tax advantages of employer-sponsored plans.     

Negative Effects of the Canadian GIS Clawback and Possible Mitigating Alternatives

Abstract

In Canada there are three main sources of government-provided retirement income: the Canada/Quebec Pension Plans (C/QPP), which have benefits and contributions based on earnings up to the Yearly Maximum Pensionable Earnings; Old Age Security (OAS), which is a fixed amount for most but does include a “clawback” of benefits for high-income individuals; and the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS), which is designed to supplement those persons with extremely low income. The annual GIS benefit is reduced, or clawed back, by 50 cents for every dollar of annual income the person has in retirement, including C/QPP and income from Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) and other savings. OAS benefits are not included in determining the GIS clawback.

The result of this is that low-income individuals who attempt to enhance their retirement replacement ratio actually see a decrease in government-provided support the more they save for retirement. Savings in an RRSP can effectively be taxed at more than 100% through corresponding reductions in the GIS, social housing, home care, GAINS (Ontario’s Guaranteed Annual Income Supplement), and other benefits that are based on one’s personal retirement income.

This paper explores alternatives to the 50% GIS clawback, including a basic GIS exemption, a GIS clawback rate lower than 50%, and a combination of the two. The goal is to improve the fairness of the GIS and reduce the disincentive to save for retirement, without increasing the overall cost of the program significantly.     

The silver tsunami: an enquiry into the financial needs,preferences and behaviours of retirees

Understanding the financial needs and preferences of retirees is critical for retirement income policy and product design. Today, Australian retirees are accumulating record levels of retirement savings in order to generate retirement income. Using qualitative and quantitative research methods, we find that retirees value leisure spending, but do not plan for long‐term health and care needs. Moreover, retirees value risk protection but are unwilling to forgo potential investment gains. The differing levels of importance that retirees attach to aspects of retirement, health, intergenerational planning and family dynamics suggest that retirement income products cannot be ‘one‐size‐fits‐all’.     

我国股票市场“聪明投资者”投资绩效归因研究

不同于寻找具有超额收益“证券”的股票市场主流投资方法,根据历史投资绩效来“选人”,即寻找“聪明投资者”可为构建有效的投资策略提供新思路。本文利用我国投资者全账户交易信息,根据历史投资绩效界定“聪明投资者”,并探索其获得超额收益的原因。结果显示,我国股票市场存在“聪明投资者”,在牛熊市中均可获得显著的超额收益;相比其他投资者,“聪明投资者”风险偏好较低但能获得超额收益,即不是因为他们高杠杆融资和配置更多风险资产承担风险而获得风险溢价,而是因为这类投资者具有更好的仓位管理能力、市场风格适应能力及显著的选股能力。本研究拓展了对我国这一部分特殊群体投资者行为的探索,结论可以用于构建具有实践意义的投资策略。     

Impact of financial investment on confidence in a happy future retirement

The study examines the impact of financial investment on the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement using data from 735 respondents in the Bank Consortium Holding Limited (BCT) Public Opinion Survey on Retirement Happiness in 2017. The result shows that holding the investment portfolio with savings and risky assets positively and significantly correlates with the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement life. This relationship is more pronounced for those with a positive attitude toward life, better financial literacy, and voluntary contribution to the retirement account. The result is robust after using the propensity score matching (PSM) approach, placebo test, alternative regression model, and the independent variables and control for additional variables. Further analysis shows that the positive relationship between holding the investment portfolio and the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement life is not driven by individuals' income, assets, and location. This paper provides empirical evidence to guide citizens' investments and improve the pension system to cope with the aging population in Hong Kong.     

Saving and investing for early retirement: A theoretical analysis

We study optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a framework where investors adjust their labor supply through an irreversible choice of their retirement time. We show that investing for early retirement tends to increase savings and reduce an agent's effective relative risk aversion, thus increasing her stock market exposure. Contrary to common intuition, an investor might find it optimal to increase the proportion of financial wealth held in stocks as she ages and accumulates assets, even when her income and the investment opportunity set are constant. The model predicts a decrease in risk aversion following strong market gains like those observed in the nineties.     

Affordable retirement: light at the end of the tunnel

Compared to previous studies, the 2004 Replacement Ratio Study from Aon Consulting/Georgia State University shows an increase in the amount of income today's workers need at retirement to maintain their preretirement standard of living. After describing the study's replacement ratio findings, the authors estimate lump sums needed at retirement and required adjustments for both nonincreasing annuities and retiree medical expenses. They then describe steps innovative plan sponsors can take to encourage participants to understand and undertake their responsibility to acquire the substantial personal savings needed for a comfortable retirement.     

A Review of Major Influences on Employee Retirement Investment Decisions

The recent retirement plan debacle of the Enron employees has caused regulators and lawmakers to think about new ways to protect and help retirement plan participants. When investigating participant investment decisions, researchers have traditionally studied the retirement plan characteristics and employee characteristics. More recently, some researchers have extended the analysis to social influences, such as social norms and peer affects. Others have expanded into behavioral finance and examined the role of various psychological biases. This paper combines and summarizes these four sets of influences so that researchers and policy makers can better understand all the influences affecting an employee when making retirement plan contribution and investment decisions.     

中国实业部门金融化的异质性

本文基于实业和金融两类投资组合模型的构建,重点考察不同所有权性质和不同行业企业的金融化驱动机制是否具有异质性,并探究不同类别金融投资对应结果的差异性特征。实证结果与已有研究以及传统印象并不一致:我们发现,风险规避是中国非国有企业和制造业企业金融化的显著驱动因素,而国有企业和非制造业企业则不存在这一特征;同时,非制造业企业的金融投资主要由收益率差驱动,而在其他企业样本中均没有证据显示追逐利润是企业金融化的推动因素。不同企业样本的融资约束、杠杆率、成长性、流动性水平以及资产质量等因素对企业金融资产占比的影响也存在显著差异。进一步区分企业金融投资中货币和非货币类金融资产的不同特性并考虑企业的长期股权投资,结果表明货币类金融资产和非货币类金融资产的驱动机制存在明显差异:对于货币类金融资产投资,国有企业主要受资本逐利因素推动,其他企业则未体现这一特征;对于非货币类金融资产投资,非国有企业、制造业和非制造业企业均受到风险因素驱动,而国有企业则不受影响;将企业长期股权投资纳入金融资产后结果则未产生明显差异。     

Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice

Current literature on the effect of labor income on portfolio choice overlooks that workers face a risk of being forced to retire before their planned retirement age. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, this paper finds that the forced retirement risk is both significant and highly correlated with stock market fluctuations. Using a life-cycle portfolio choice model, this paper shows that forced retirement risk makes labor income near retirement stock-like. Therefore, contrary to conventional wisdom, those who are still working but near retirement should have a lower share of risky assets in their financial portfolios than retirees do.     

Would emerging market pension funds benefit from international diversification: investigating wealth accumulations for pension participants

In recent years, investment portfolio selection is growing in importance for many emerging market pension funds, as pension reforms replace traditional pay-as-you-go systems with advanced funding systems. Various investment regulations are applied to the funded pensions, particularly in the form of portfolio limits for equities and international assets. With a bootstrap simulation approach, this paper attempts to quantify the impacts on retirement benefits of restricting international assets from the investment portfolios of emerging market pension funds. We find that, on average, over half of the pension portfolios of emerging market countries should be in international assets in order to maximize the expected utility of moderate and conservative pension fund participants. More generally, international assets can play a significant role in the investment portfolios for workers with risk aversion varying from aggressive to conservative. With few exceptions, the entire probability distribution of wealth accumulations at retirement could be shifted higher with the inclusion of international assets.