An Empirical Examination of Traditional Neighborhood Development

This study analyzes the impact of the new urbanism on single-family home prices. Specifically, we explore the price differential that homebuyers pay for houses in new urbanist developments relative to houses in conventional suburban developments. Using data on over 5,000 single-family home sales from 1994 to 1997 in three different neighborhoods, hedonic regression results reveal that consumers pay more for homes in new urbanist communities than those in conventional suburban developments. Further analyses indicate that the price premium is not attributable to differences in improvement age and other housing characteristics.     

The Resale Housing Market

This paper describes and analyzes the structure and operation of the market for existing single-family homes. The paper develops aggregative models of sales and renovation activity based on the adjustment choice decisions of households to alter their housing consumption by moving or by undertaking renovations. The models demonstrate that housing resales and renovation expenditures occur when the present value of the gains associated with a housing adjustment exceeds the costs of the transaction. The choice of the adjustment mode is shown to be significantly influenced by the relative transactions costs of moving versus renovating.     

Residential Construction Volatility: A Seasonal and Cyclical Inventory Adjustment Analysis

The seasonality of inventories and the seasonality and cyclicality of sales of new single-family residences by speculative builders may be formally introduced into a partial production adjustment inventory model of housing starts. The theoretical results include variables that imply an interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. A specification error bias in the estimation of the partial adjustment coefficient is evaluated for models that exclude the interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. Stabilization policy is more complex when cyclical instability changes season to season. In this view, justification is found for a seasonal stabilization policy in housing.     

Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market

The paper uses quarterly indexes of existing single-family home prices estimated with microdata on properties that sold more than once to estimate excess returns to investment in owner-occupied housing. Housing prices and excess returns are estimated over the period 1970:1 to 1986:3 for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco. Using time-series cross-section regressions we test for the forecastability of prices and excess returns using a number of independent variables. Price changes in one year tend to continue for more than one year in the same direction. The ratio of construction costs to price, changes in adult population and increases in real per capita income all are positively related to excess returns or price changes over the subsequent year. The results add weight to the argument that the market for single-family homes is inefficient.     

Risk and Return within the Single-Family Housing Market

The trade-off between risk and return in equity markets is well established. This paper examines the existence of the same trade-off in the single-family housing market. That market is dominated by homeowners, who constitute about two-thirds of U.S. households. For them the choice about how much housing and what house to buy is a joint consumption-investment decision. Furthermore, owner-occupied housing is by nature a lumpy investment whose risk cannot be completely diversified. Does this consumption-investment link negate the risk-return trade-off within the single-family housing market? Theory suggests the link still holds. This paper supplies empirical evidence in support of that theoretical result.     

Reaction of House Prices to a New Rapid Transit Line: Chicago's Midway Line, 1983–1999

This study examines the effect of the new rapid transit line from downtown Chicago to Midway Airport on single-family house prices before and after the opening of the line. The results show that the housing market anticipated the opening of the line. House prices were being affected by proximity to the stations in the late 1980s and early 1990s—after the plans for the line were well known. The difference between the increase in the value of homes within the sample area as compared with properties farther away from the new transit stations was approximately $216 million between 1986 and 1999.     

Urban flight: A short-term phenomenon or long-term trend?

We investigate whether the urban flight from more to less dense locations identified by previous housing studies for the early COVID period is a temporary, pandemic-induced phenomenon, or long-term trend. We focus on the period of 2017–2022, 14,961 single-family home transactions from Southwestern Ontario, and three housing market metrics. Our results for sales price in the early pandemic periods are in line with previous studies. However, our results for sales price in the last pandemic phase (2022), marketing time, and visit activity suggest that the urban flight was a temporary phenomenon characteristic of the early COVID phases.     

Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market

This article shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects the housing market in two significant ways. First, uncertainty shocks adversely affect housing prices but not the quantities that are traded. Controlling for a broad set of variables in fixed‐effects regressions, we find that uncertainty shocks reduce both housing prices and median sales prices in the amount of 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, but the effect is not statistically significant for the percentage changes of all homes sold. Second, when both uncertainty and local demand shocks are introduced, the effects of uncertainty on the housing market dominate that of local labor demand shocks on housing prices, median sale prices, the share of houses selling for a loss and transactions. The aforementioned effects are largest for the states that exhibit relatively high housing price volatilities, suggesting real options effects in the housing market during the times of high uncertainty.     

Are New Homes Special?

This article describes alternative ways of identifying new homes and, using a large dataset of property sales in Las Vegas, Nevada, tests for the extent to which new homes sell at a price premium relative to otherwise similar existing homes. We also investigate whether the results differ across time and location, including before and after the housing bust. Our results suggest that price premia for new homes arise primarily in circumstances in which the supply of new houses is relatively low. In some cases rising to over 20% relative to otherwise similar existing homes. When new homes are plentiful, they are not special and the premium disappears.     

Impact Fees and the Price of New Housing: An Empirical Study

Development exactions in the form of impact fees are being used increasingly by local governments to fund the cost of providing public services necessitated by growth and development. This paper presents the results of an empirical study designed to ascertain the extent to which impact fees are capitalized into the price of new, single-family dwellings. On June 3, 1974, the city of Dunedin, located in Pinellas County, Florida, began assessing impact fees of $1,150 against all new, single-family construction. Using data on 5,839 new home sales in Dunedin and three other cities in Pinellas County from 1971–1982, it was found that builders were able to pass forward the total cost of impact fees to new home buyers. However, the price differential due to impact fees for new dwellings in Dunedin compared to the price of new dwellings in the other three cities disappeared after approximately six years. This is explained by the nature of the fee structure in Dunedin, adjustments in factor costs, increases in the price of housing in competing cities, and unrealized expectations regarding the benefits to be provided by impact fee collections.     

Search and Liquidity in Single-Family Housing

A two-stage least squares model of housing prices is estimated with data collected from 3358 single-family home transactions. The results provide evidence for an optimal marketing period and indicate that a liquidity premium is priced in single-family home sales. Consistent with the hypothesis derived from economic search models, the model shows higher selling prices for houses having longer expected marketing periods. The model also shows a price premium for houses that sell faster than expectations. This effect supports the concept that liquidity is a value-enhancing characteristic.     

The Impact on Housing Values of Restrictions on Rights of Ownership: The Case of an Occupant's Age

With the exception of anecdotal information, little is known about the specific effects on the value of a house because its ownership is restricted to people older than a certain age. This article provides an empirically-derived assessment of the impact on the selling price of single-family residences when their ownership is age restricted. To determine the effect on the sales price of age-restricted houses, a standard hedonic pricing model is applied to a sample of 371 sales transactions drawn from a suburban area of a large city. The results indicate that an age restriction placed on houses decreases their value by 6%. This finding may be of interest to local land-use regulators, developers who are considering developing age-restricted houses and appraisers who wish to make value adjustments to these homes.     

The Impact of Growth Control Regulations on Housing Prices in California*

This paper examines the impact of growth controls on the price of new single-family homes. Four types of growth controls are discussed and each is found to have a significantly different impact on housing prices. Regulations that are imposed by one locality only are first compared to those that are imposed by a locality whose neighbors also control growth. In California, increases in house prices in communities with only local growth controls cannot be distinguished from communities that do not control growth. However, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase in growth control jurisdictions located in extensively regulated housing markets is significantly higher than in local-only or no-control jurisdictions. In addition, controls that restrict the rate of development are compared to those that specify the quality of development. In the extensively regulated San Francisco Bay area, the 1969 to 1976 housing price increase was 35% higher in rate-controlled communities and 20% higher in quality-controlled communities than in no-control communities.     

Using System Dynamics to assess the impact of RFID technology on retail operations

The application of item-level radio frequency identification (RFID) technology in retail supply chains creates cost savings and promises large potential benefits from revenue growth. However, the economic assessment of the impact on improved store operations, labor utilization, and increased sales is still not fully explored. We propose to use System Dynamics as a structural modeling and simulation approach to integrate conventional return on investment evaluations. Building on previous research about RFID technology in retail supply chains, we developed a model based on the case exploration of a leading Italian apparel retailer. Simulations show that RFID implementations are profitable whenever they contribute to increase sales, especially when a fashion retailer is focused on clerk-assisted sales strategies. Sales growth results from the dynamic and integrated impacts of RFID technology on better inventory control, faster inventory turnover, and longer time available for store personnel to assist consumers as an effect of more efficient backroom operations.     

The Effect of Regional Growth Characteristics on Regional Housing Prices

As contrasted with strictly national housing reports, this article highlights the regional variations in population growth patterns and recently built owner-occupied housing as a means of determining single-family housing price components (i.e., developed lot values, homebuilding costs, and builder's profit and overhead) by region. The assertion that escalating lot costs and increases in new housing costs will limit the demand for single-family housing is challenged on a national basis and treated individually for the West, Northeast, South, and North Central Regions of the country.     

Perspective: The Evolution of R&D Conduct in the Pharmaceutical Industry

During the past three decades, a series of changes in the market environment have altered the structure of the pharmaceutical industry. While these changes have benefitted the generic drug sector, the effect on the branded drug sector has been detrimental. In sum, these changes have shortened the product life cycles for branded drugs by shifting market share to generic drugs sooner. As a result, it is more challenging for branded drugs to meet return on investment expectations because sales revenue has decreased. This study examines change in the pharmaceutical industry through the lens of the Structure‐Conduct‐Performance paradigm. While research and development intensity has remained stable during the past three decades, new product introductions have shifted to favor brand extension drugs over new, innovative drugs. This change in conduct, reflecting the structural changes that have impacted the industry, indicates a transformation in managers' expectations for returns from investment in new drug development. From a performance standpoint, in the latter part of the period studied, we find a positive relationship between stock return and the introduction of brand extensions reflecting the stock market's approval of the change in product strategy. Our discussion concludes that emerging structural changes may help offset the challenges faced by the branded drug sector and ultimately drive additional changes in the branded sector's conduct.     

Why Are Foreclosures Contagious?

This article investigates the mechanism by which foreclosed properties depress neighboring property prices. Using a novel dataset on housing capital expenditure, I verify as accurate the claim of disinvestment theory made in earlier studies. When capital expenditure investment, neighborhood price trends, number of Multiple Listing Service listings and neighborhood fixed effects are controlled for, the negative effect on property prices is significant from nearby foreclosures, real estate owned (REO) listings and REO sales, but not from default and delinquent properties. The effect is larger in a depressed market than in an appreciating market. I argue that the most plausible explanation for these results is that a foreclosure discount drives down the reference prices for nearby properties and depresses neighborhood values. This discount information is revealed to the public through foreclosures, REO listings and REO sales.     

The Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique: An Alternative to the Adjustment Grid Methods

This study presents a new appraisal technique, dubbed the Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique, which vastly reduces the subjectivity of the traditional adjustment grid methods while eliminating the need to adjust for subject-comparable differences on a piecemeal basis. Any number of appraisers who apply this technique to the same property at the same point in time will get the exact same estimate of value. The technique avoids piecemeal adjustments by capturing all subject-comparable differences in a single measure. Using single-family sales data, the technique is found to be more accurate than any of the adjustment grid methods and hedonic price regression estimation procedures.     

The Affordability of New Homes

There has been much recent public discussion about the rising price of new homes, and concern that an increasing number of families are priced out of the new home market. This paper argues that new homes are no more expensive, relative to income, than they have historically been, although the large volume of subsidized new home production during the early 1970s has tended to distort the recent trends. The main problem for new home buyers is the increase in mortgage interest rates generated by inflation in the past decade. However, current homeowners have also benefited from inflation and may be better able to afford a new house as a result. This paper also presents data on recent new home buyers, showing that a large number of families are buying new homes supposedly beyond their means, and that the typical buyer has a much lower income than has been thought feasible by many housing market analysts.     

An empirical analysis of inventory turnover behaviour in Greek retail sector: 2000-2005

In this study we investigate the determinants of inventory turnover. The study is based on an econometric analysis of inventory behaviour using an inventory turnover model. The empirical implementation of the model was conducted on a sample of financial data for 566 Greek retail firms for the period 2000-2005. By employing panel data techniques it was found that inventory turnover ratio is negatively correlated with gross margin and positively correlated with capital intensity and a measure of sales surprise.Decomposing the variance into its components associated with year, firm and retail segment effects, we found that a substantial amount of inventory turns variability is due to segment-wise effects. Moreover, the inventory turnover reaction to different sales changes was also studied. It was estimated that changes in sales bring on bigger changes when firms operate in sales-declined region. These results are useful in identifying methods and applications to improve inventory performance among firms and over time.