Retail clientele and option returns

Does the retail clientele matter for option returns? By delta-hedging options and trading straddles, thus allowing a focus on volatility, this paper empirically shows that a higher retail trading proportion (RTP) is related to lower option returns. Long-short portfolios involving options on low and high RTP stocks generate significantly positive abnormal returns. The results suggest that retail investors speculate and pay a lottery premium on the expected future volatility, resulting in more expensive options with higher implied volatilities.     

Effects of taxation for option writers: an Australian perspective

Writing an option is a taxable event for Australian investors. This method of taxation penalizes investors who hold open short option positions over the tax year end by accelerating their tax liability relative to the timing of the economic gain from writing options. This paper examines the levels of open interest in the Australian Stock Exchange over the change in financial year to determine whether investors time their transactions to avoid this tax acceleration. The results show that level of open interest is lower in the last month of the financial year after controlling for non‐tax determinants of option demand.     

Risk sharing in a financial market with endogenous option prices

This article investigates a financial market in which investors may trade in risk-free bonds, stock and put options written on the stock. In each period, stock and option prices are simultaneously determined by market clearing. While the introduction of put options will decrease the systematic risk in the financial market, it will increase the price of risk. Investors with mean-variance preferences will generally hold portfolios containing the primary asset and the put option and may use the option to increase the risk in their wealth position in exchange for higher returns. Aggregate wealth is unaffected by an option market when there are no spillover effects on stock prices, and it is shown that short selling of options will increase the volatility of individual wealth positions. Investors with erroneous beliefs may on average be better off not trading in put options.     

Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange

In this paper, we set out to investigate the information content of options trading using a unique dataset to examine the predictive power of the put and call positions of different types of traders in the TAIEX option market. We find that options volume, as a whole, carries no information on TAIEX spot index changes. On the other hand, however, although foreign institutional investors do not engage in much trading, there is strong evidence to show that the trading in which they do engage has significant predictive power on the underlying asset returns. We also find that foreign institutional investors have greater predictive power with regard to in near-the-money and middle-horizon options.     

Derivative Pricing 60 Years before Black–Scholes: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

We obtain daily data for warrants traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange between 1909 and 1922, and for a broker's call option quotes on stocks from 1908 to 1911. We use this new data set to test how close derivative prices are to Black–Scholes (1973) prices and to compute profits for investors using a simple trading rule for call options. We examine whether investors exercised warrants optimally and how they reacted to extensions of the warrants' durations. We show that long before the development of the formal theory, investors had an intuitive grasp of the determinants of derivative pricing.     

The cross-section of average delta-hedge option returns under stochastic volatility

Existing evidence indicates that average returns of purchased market-hedge S&P 500 index calls, puts, and straddles are non-zero but large and negative, which implies that options are expensive. This result is intuitively explained by means of volatility risk and a negative volatility risk premium, but there is a recent surge of empirical and analytical studies which also attempt to find the sources of this premium. An important question in the line of a priced volatility explanation is if a standard stochastic volatility model can also explain the cross-sectional findings of these empirical studies. The answer is fairly positive. The volatility elasticity of calls and puts is several times the level of market volatility, depending on moneyness and maturity, and implies a rich cross-section of negative average option returns—even if volatility risk is not priced heavily, albeit negative. We introduce and calibrate a new measure of option overprice to explain these results. This measure is robust to jump risk if jumps are not priced.      

The benefits of option use by mutual funds

Based on comprehensive regulatory data on equity mutual fund option use from the SEC's N-SAR filings, we are the first to present consistent evidence that equity funds' option use generates higher risk-adjusted performance. We further show that this is a direct effect of option use and not an indirect effect of other fund characteristics. Option use also directly results in lower systematic risk, as funds show significantly lower market betas during periods of options usage. Finally, mutual funds use options mainly for hedging as they primarily use protective puts and covered calls. These results are independent of known phenomena, such as the low beta anomaly, and robust to tests for endogeneity and a novel 5-factor model including an investable option strategy factor (IOS). Overall, our findings show that mutual fund option use is beneficial to investors and does not pose risk to the financial system as feared by the SEC. Our results are thus important for investors as well as regulators.     

Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls

We provide evidence that trading frictions have an economically important impact on the execution and the profitability of option strategies that involve writing out-of-the-money put options. Margin requirements, in particular, limit the notional amount of capital that can be invested in the strategies and force investors to close down positions and realize losses. The economic effect of frictions is stronger when the investor seeks to write options more aggressively. Although margins are effective in reducing counterparty default risk, they also impose a friction that limits investors from supplying liquidity to the option market.     

Hedging efficiency in the Greek options market before and after the financial crisis of 2008

This study examines the hedging effectiveness of the emerging Greek options market before and after the financial crisis of 2008. We test the hypothesis of market efficiency by analyzing violations of FTSE/ASE-20 index option returns with respect to standard option theory, estimating option risk-premia, and testing the statistical significance of the returns to delta and delta–vega neutral straddles. Our empirical results suggest that, despite a certain level of mispricing, the Athens Derivatives Exchange maintained a relative level of efficiency before 2008. However, the economic crisis has had a significant impact on the Greek options market, as evidenced by more pronounced violations of theoretical predictions observed in option returns and risk-premia. These findings have direct implications for the risk management of international portfolios, since the feasibility and effectiveness of hedging exposure in Greek investments is found to have declined precisely when it is needed the most.     

Option Momentum

This paper investigates the performance of option investments across different stocks by computing monthly returns on at-the-money straddles on individual equities. We find that options with high historical returns continue to significantly outperform options with low historical returns over horizons ranging from 6 to 36 months. This phenomenon is robust to including out-of-the-money options or delta-hedging the returns. Unlike stock momentum, option return continuation is not followed by long-run reversal. Significant returns remain after factor risk adjustment and after controlling for implied volatility and other characteristics. Across stocks, trading costs are unrelated to the magnitude of momentum profits.     

The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options

We study whether exposure to marketwide correlation shocks affects expected option returns, using data on S&P100 index options, options on all components, and stock returns. We find evidence of priced correlation risk based on prices of index and individual variance risk. A trading strategy exploiting priced correlation risk generates a high alpha and is attractive for CRRA investors without frictions. Correlation risk exposure explains the cross-section of index and individual option returns well. The correlation risk premium cannot be exploited with realistic trading frictions, providing a limits-to-arbitrage interpretation of our finding of a high price of correlation risk.     

Relevance of the disposition effect on the options market: New evidence

A moneyness‐based propensity to sell (MPS) measure, at the aggregate level, determines the propensity of option holders to exercise their winning relative to losing positions. Using data on individual stock and S&P 500 Index options, we find that the MPS measure has significant predictive power over the cross section of delta‐hedged option returns. We test the disposition effect in the options market based on a long–short strategy that exploits price distortions induced by the disposition bias. More pronounced evidence of the disposition bias is found for individual at‐the‐money call options than put options where the significance of abnormal returns remains robust across different subsamples even after we control for the portfolio option greeks and market‐based risk factors. The profitability of the long–short strategy is related to limit‐to‐arbitrage proxies suggesting that behavioral explanations help explain the positive relation between the MPS measure and delta‐hedged option returns.     

Overstatement of Implied Variance in the Dollar/Yen Currency Option Market

This paper investigates the predictive power of implied variancesextracted from the dollar/yen option prices. Implied variances areestimated from transaction prices of currency options traded on PHLXusing the option pricing model of Garman and Kohlhagen (1983). Incontrast to recent findings on stock and stock index options, theout-of-sample tests indicate that the implied variance is an upwardbiased estimator of future variance; and that the variance forecastsfrom GARCH and historical models do not contain significantincremental information in predicting future variance. Tradingstrategies are also developed to exploit the observed overstatementof variance in the dollar/yen option market. Traders that can executethe delta-neutral trading strategies at the observed markettransaction prices could lock in a significant profits during theperiod examined. However, for investors that facing highertransaction costs, the magnitude of the profits is generally notlarge enough to allow for abnormal risk-adjusted profits.     

DIVERSIFICATION AND SKEWNESS IN OPTION PORTFOLIOS

Skewness in returns is relevant to option investors. Because options possess positively skewed distributions, the traditional maxim of diversification, which can destroy positive skewness, is not necessarily consistent with investment objectives. The results indicate that the majority of skewness in option portfolios is diversified with a relatively small portfolio size, suggesting a strategy of antidiversification for option investors. Even though the investment performance of options is inferior to stocks on a risk-return basis, the data indicate the suitability of option portfolios in an environment where an investor's utility is measured by the return, risk, and skewness of the return distribution.     

Options and the Bubble

Many believe that a bubble existed in Internet stocks in the 1999 to 2000 period, and that short‐sale restrictions prevented rational investors from driving Internet stock prices to reasonable levels. In the presence of such short‐sale constraints, option and stock prices could decouple during a bubble. Using intraday options data from the peak of the Internet bubble, we find almost no evidence that synthetic stock prices diverged from actual stock prices. We also show that the general public could cheaply short synthetically using options. In summary, we find no evidence that short‐sale restrictions affected Internet stock prices.     

The 2011 European short sale ban: A cure or a curse?

This paper examines whether the 2011 European short sale ban on financial stocks proved to be successful or had a negative impact on financial markets. We explicitly take an options market perspective and focus on market participants’ changes in beliefs and expectations. During the ban, short positions in banned stocks decreased, whereas they increased for non-banned stocks. Our results indicate that the ban increased implied jump risk levels, thereby negatively impacting the banned financial stocks. However, we also observe that after the announcement of the ban, financial contagion risk actually dropped for banned stocks. Instead of a substitution effect between regular short selling and synthetic shorting through single stock puts, we observe a migration out of single stock puts into the EuroStoxx 50 index options market. We conclude that this type of migration diversified selling pressure initially concentrated in financial stocks across a larger share of the stock market, thereby reducing systemic risks and enhancing overall financial stability.     

Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options

Recent empirical studies report predictable dynamics in the volatility surfaces that are implied by observed index option prices, such as those prescribed by general equilibrium models. Using an extensive data set from the over-the-counter options market, we document similar predictability in the factors that capture the daily variation of surfaces implied by options on 25 different foreign exchange rates. We proceed to demonstrate that simple vector autoregressive specifications for the factors can help produce accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the systematic component of the surface at short horizons. Profitable delta-hedged positions can be set up based on these forecasts; however, profits disappear when typical transaction costs are taken into account and when trading rules on wide segments of the surface are sought.     

An analysis of nondeductible IRA contributions and Roth IRA conversions

On average investors have an income replacement rate of 64% of their pre-retirement income, which in many cases results in a lower tax rate in retirement. We analyze the impact of declining withdrawal tax rates on the choice between taxable mutual fund investments and nondeductible IRAs. The relative attractiveness of the taxable mutual fund option declines significantly when withdrawal tax rates decline. Converting existing IRAs to Roth IRAs is generally beneficial for investors who remain in the same tax bracket upon withdrawal. For short (long) time horizons and low (high) expected returns, the marginal value of conversion in 1998 is greater (less) than the marginal value of optimal conversion. For investors dropping into the 15% tax bracket, conversion is generally not beneficial unless the conversion is done optimally, the time horizon is long, and the expected return is high. Investors in the 15% tax bracket should convert existing IRA assets.     

THE VALUE LINE STOCK RANKINGS AND THE OPTION MODEL IMPLIED STANDARD DEVIATIONS

Here, the relationship between Value Line rankings and option implied standard deviations is investigated. Each Value Line ranking (safety, price stability, timeliness, and earnings predictability) is significantly related to option implied standard deviations for a sample of 62 companies with Value Line timeliness rankings of 1, 2, 4, and 5 and with a total of 1,217 call options traded over a 3-day period. The index for price stability would be most valuable to investors for assessing future risk since only this index has a significant association with residual implied volatility, i.e., those unexplained by historical volatility.     

The smirk in the S&P500 futures options prices: a linearized factor analysis

In the S&P500 futures options, we identify three factors, corresponding to movements in the underlying, parallel movements, and tilting of the cross section of implied volatilities (the “smirk factor”). We relate these factors non-linearly to movements in the option prices. They seem to be diffusive in nature, have significant associated risk premia, and can account for an overwhelming part of the option price movements. We interpret the options smirk, which is the notion that out-of-the-money (OTM) puts seem expensive relative to OTM calls, in terms of the prices of these risk factors. Going short OTM puts and long OTM calls, corresponding to the third factor, makes a profit on average, but this corresponds to its risk premium, and does not represent a market inefficiency. Our smirk factor is useful for hedging option portfolios, but seems unrelated to movements in the underlying, and does not fit into the framework of the jump-diffusion models.