Financial reforms and time-varying microstructures in emerging equity markets

This paper seeks to investigate the impact of financial reforms on time-varying microstructures in emerging equity markets. We develop annual indicators of informational efficiency, market volatility and transaction costs, using daily data for a panel of 28 emerging markets over the 1996–2007 period. We then analyze the impact of insider trading regulations, trading system automation and accounting standardization on microstructures through a set of panel regressions controlling for financial development and simultaneous reforms. Our results suggest that emerging market microstructures are affected by economic and political context, are strongly related to one another and depend on specific institutional reforms.     

Market Segmentation Effects in Corporate Credit Rating Changes: The Case of Emerging Markets

We examine stock market reactions to corporate credit rating changes in 26 emerging market countries included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index. We hypothesize and test the notion that emerging market firms in the American Depository Receipts (ADRs) markets are more likely to purchase ratings from the Big Two (Moody’s and S&P), and that they react more strongly to the announcements of corporate rating changes by Moody’s or S&P than to those of raters in local markets. We compare the effect of credit rating changes of the Big Two in two emerging stock markets: local markets (local currencies) and ADR markets (U.S. dollars). We find significant price reactions in the ADR markets, and insignificant reactions in local markets, and conclude that there is capital market segmentation in ADR markets for credit rating changes of emerging market firms. We find evidence that investors react more strongly in the ADR markets than local markets because they require higher costs of capital for firms cross-listed both in the ADR markets and local markets due to greater expected bankruptcy costs and foreign exchange risks of those firms. We also report that stock markets react significantly, not only to rating downgrades, but also to upgrades in the ADR markets.

The Information Environment of China's A and B Shares: Can We Make Sense of the Numbers?

In 1990, three stock exchanges were opened in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing. Partial privatization of China's enterprises began with offering two types of shares: A shares are sold only domestically to locals and are denominated in local currency; B shares are denominated in dollars and are sold only to foreign investors. All listed firms offer A shares, but to qualify for offering B shares, the firm must prepare financial statements in accordance with International Accounting Standards and also meet other requirements. Firms issuing A shares only adopt domestic accounting regulations.As a way of generating capital funds, market segmentation has been a success. Both types of shares, however, have two different information environments. The environment of A shares appears to be dominated by local regulations and customs at the time of offering or trading. The information environment of A shares appears to be relatively unstructured and is affected by informal communication between various groups. Other than the roles played by state officials and appointed managers, external monitoring of A shares appears to be limited. Independence and social acceptance of auditing appear to be making slow progress, especially when the majority of domestic CPA firms are government owned. In contrast, the information environment for the B shares is more structured because (1) financial reporting adheres to International Accounting Standards, (2) financial statements are audited by CPA firms with international practice; and (3) foreign investors — mainly large financial institutions — also act as external monitors.We elaborate on the differences between these two information environments and suggest that accounting earnings and A share prices are not correlated, but earnings and share prices are correlated for B shares. In an event-study approach, we find results inconsistent with both hypotheses — for 1994 and 1995 we find that earnings and unexpected returns are correlated for A shares but not for B shares. The high price volatility, the significant and continuing dominance of government officials, and the thinness of trade in B shares are offered as possible explanation for these results.     

Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the weak-form efficiency of 10 Asian emerging stock markets. Using a battery of nonlinearity tests, the statistical results reveal that all the returns series still contain predictable nonlinearities even after removing linear serial correlation from the data. The next stage of sub-sample analysis using the Hinich [Hinich, M., 1996. Testing for dependence in the input to a linear time series model. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 6, 205–221] bicorrelation test shows that the 10 Asian series follow a pure noise process for long periods of time, only to be interspersed with brief periods of strong nonlinear dependence. The exploratory investigation found that the cross-country differences in nonlinear departure from market efficiency can be explained by market size and trading activity, while the transient burst of nonlinear periods in each individual market can be attributed largely to the occurrence of economic and political events.     

Depositors’ Assessment of Bank Riskiness in the Russian Federation

In the period after the crises in the late 1990s, the banking industries in most emerging markets have undergone significant restructuring consistent with the Basel II Accord. The Central Bank of Russia’s efforts since 2000 have contributed to the consolidation and improvement of the banking industry. To measure the extent of market discipline in the Russian banking industry, we study the reaction of Russian depositors to excessive risk taking by large banks between 2000:1 and 2005:1. We find that during our analysis period, well-capitalized, more liquid banks significantly increase their deposits.     

Microstructures,financial reforms and informational efficiency in an emerging market

This paper investigates the effects of microstructures and financial reforms on time-varying informational efficiency in an emerging equity market setting. Our data comprises of firm level data from the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange, over the period 1990–2013. Using a dynamic panel regression framework while controlling for firm size, we find that microstructures, specifically liquidity, volatility, automation and the number of shareholders have an important role in influencing the time-varying efficiency of this emerging market. The financial reforms, namely liberalisation and regulation are not found to have a notable influence. We also consider heterogeneity at the firm level, finding that the microstructures of the banking firms listed in this market have a greater impact on market efficiency, in relation to the other listed firms.     

An early warning indicator system to monitor the unsecured interbank funds market

A core goal of regulators and financial authorities is to understand how market prices convey information on the financial health of its participants. From this viewpoint we build an Early-Warning Indicators System (EWIS) that allows for identifying those financial institutions perceived as risky counterparts by the participants of the interbank market. We use micro-level data from bilateral overnight unsecured loans performed in the interbank market between January 2011 and December 2014. The EWIS identifies those participants that systematically pay high prices for liquidity in this market. We employ coverage tests to estimate EWIS’ robustness and consistency. We find that financial institutions with an elevated frequency of signals tend to exhibit a net borrower liquidity position in the interbank market, hence suggesting they are facing recurrent liquidity needs. Those institutions also exhibit higher probability of insolvency measured by the Z-score indicator. Thus, our results support the existence of market discipline based on peer-monitoring. Overall, the EWIS may assist financial authorities in focusing their attention and resources on those financial institutions perceived by the market as those closer to distress.     

The Depositor Behind the Discipline: A Micro-Level Case Study of Hamilton Bank

Though uninsured depositors are recognized as a source of market discipline, the possible disciplinary effect of decisions made by fully insured depositors have gone largely unexamined. Using proprietary administrative deposit data at the account level, this paper analyzes depositor behavior at a recently failed institution. The results suggest that although uninsured deposits exited at a greater rate than insured deposits, the vast majority of deposits withdrawn were fully insured. Among types of deposit accounts, the rates of withdrawal for fully insured individual, joint, and trust accounts were relatively high. Uninsured business account owners were highly sensitive to the bank's deteriorating condition. In contrast, owners of uninsured individual retirement accounts effectively exerted no market discipline. The opinions expressed in this paper are ours and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. All errors are our own.     

A comparison of value relevance of accounting information in different segments of the Chinese stock market

This paper investigates the difference in the value relevance between the accounting information prepared and audited under the Chinese GAAP for A-share investors and under the international accounting standards (IAS) for B-share investors in the Chinese stock market. The study reports three primary findings. First, accounting information influences the pricing process in both the A-share market and the B-share market. Second, the accounting information in the B-share market is more value relevant than that in the A-share market, as expected. Finally, the value relevance level of accounting information in the A-share market was low in earlier years, peaked in 1996, and then decreased due to changes in the disclosure environment. However, the value-relevance level of accounting information in the B-share market had no substantial changes. Using a constant sample, control variables on firm features, and measures of traders' behavior, we obtain robust results. These findings have implications for policymakers on recent moves toward replacing local GAAP with the IAS.     

Unchecked manipulations,price–volume relationship and market efficiency: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates how unchecked manipulations could cause frequent trade-induced manipulations and weak-form market inefficiency in South Asian stock markets [Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)]. Specifically, the paper analyses the price–volume relationship as one of the many cases of market inefficiency. By employing various econometric tests, this paper first provides conclusive evidence of market inefficiency in these markets. It then extracts evidence of manipulation periods from legal cases and analyses price–volume relationship during these periods. The paper finds that there exists market-wide trading-induced manipulations, where excessive buying and selling causes prices to inflate artificially before crashing down. The paper concludes that South-Asian markets are inefficient in the weak-form.     

Deriving value or risk? Determinants and the impact of emerging market banks’ derivative usage

This paper examines the determinants of the emerging market banks’ derivative usage and the impact of derivative usage on bank value, total risk and bank stability. Our empirical evidence first suggests that derivative usage is driven primarily by net interest margin, bank concentration and institutional strength. In addition, although derivative usage appears to reduce emerging market bank value, it does not affect total risk. Moreover, emerging market banks can reduce bank instability using derivatives. Our findings have important implications for investors and policy makers focusing on emerging derivatives markets.     

Does control‐ownership divergence impair market liquidity in an emerging market? Evidence from China

This paper examines how institutional characteristics of emerging economies influence the effect of control‐ownership divergence on market liquidity. We find that the divergence is negatively associated with liquidity and that this negative relationship is more pronounced in firms with more severe agency problems and information asymmetry. We argue that in an emerging market, the negative effect of the divergence on liquidity is worsened by state ownership and poorer shareholder protection, both of which result in more severe agency conflicts; we also find, however, that this effect is alleviated by the NTS reform, which aligns the interest of different shareholders.