Demand for improved fish feed in the presence of a subsidy: a double hurdle application in Kenya

Fish farming households’ demand for improved fish feed from the private market in Kenya is potentially influenced by the government's feed subsidy program. This article applies the double‐hurdle model to a cross‐section of fish farms to analyze demand for improved fish feed from private markets, and whether the government feed subsidy program has an effect on private demand for improved feed. The results indicate that households’ decisions to participate in the improved feed market are affected by the quantity of improved feed received from the government. Once the participation decision has been made, we find evidence of crowding‐in of the private improved feed sector; that is, the government's allocations of subsidized feed appear to increase private sector demand. In addition, the price of improved feed negatively affects the quantity purchased as expected. Education, extension contacts, and ease of marketing matured fish increase household propensity to purchase improved feed commercially. Policies that help reduce the price of improved feed such as reduction in tariffs on imported feeds and feed ingredients will foster demand for the feed, as will policies that facilitate marketing of fish at reasonable prices by households.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Smallholder Supply Response to Marketing Board Activities in a Dual Channel Marketing System: The Case of Zambia

In recent years, parastatal grain marketing boards have re‐emerged as important elements of grain markets in eastern and southern Africa, yet little is known about how farmers are responding to their scaled up activities. This article develops a conceptual model of farmers’ production decisions in the context of dual output marketing channels (government and private sector) when output prices at harvest time and the availability of one of the marketing channels are unknown at planting time. It then applies the model to the case of Zambia and uses nationally representative household‐level panel survey data to estimate the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), the government parastatal maize marketing board, on smallholder crop production and fallow land. The FRA buys maize from smallholders at a pan‐territorial price that typically exceeds market prices in major maize producing areas. Results suggest that increases in the farmgate FRA maize price raise farmer maize price expectations, which induces a supply response. Smallholders respond to an increase in the FRA price by extensifying their maize production. On average, a 1% increase in the FRA price is associated with 0.06% increases in smallholders’ maize area planted and quantity harvested. There is also some evidence that farmers reduce the area of land under fallow in response to FRA incentives but there is no evidence of reductions in the area planted to other crops.     

The effects of the Food Reserve Agency on maize market prices in Zambia

Over the last decade, governments throughout eastern and southern Africa have increasingly used strategic reserves and/or marketing boards to influence grain market outcomes, yet little is known about how these activities are affecting grain markets. This article estimates the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) on maize market prices in production and consumption regions in Zambia using a vector autoregression model and monthly data from July 1996 through December 2008. In recent years, FRA has become the dominant buyer of smallholder maize in Zambia. Simulations show that FRA activities stabilized market prices throughout the July 1996–December 2008 study period and raised mean prices between July 2003 and December 2008 by 17–19%. The price raising effects of FRA policies have assisted surplus maize producers but adversely affected net buyers of maize in Zambia, namely urban consumers and the majority of the rural poor. The increase in maize price stability is unlikely to have had substantial welfare effects on poor households. In contrast, relatively wealthy producers are likely to have benefited from the higher average and more stable maize prices resulting from FRA policies.     

Price dynamics in the Bangladesh rice market: implications for public intervention

In this paper, the price dynamics of a rice market are examined using dynamic programming techniques. The model is parameterised to the case of Bangladesh and thus represents the situation of a very poor country which has characteristically high price elasticity (due to income effects) and high storage and interest costs. The incentives for private sector storage and its impact on price stability are examined. Various options for public intervention in the storage sector are also explored, including price ceiling schemes and subsidisation of storage costs. Results show that interventions that remove private disincentives (such as storage subsidies) are much cheaper than direct intervention by government, but the impact on the probability distribution of prices is quite different. The effect of trade on the probability distribution of prices is also examined.     

Will cotton make a comeback in Mali?

With the decline of cotton especially in the marginal cotton areas, farmers have been using more of the cotton‐financed inputs on the cereals. The cotton para‐statal company (CMDT) has made a virtue out of this recommending diversification for these regions. Following the world price spike in 2010, the Malian government responded with a substantial price increase for cotton in 2011 of 38% to rejuvenate the Malian sector. This article looks at the impact of this price policy in the cotton economy and the potential of new cereal technology and marketing strategy to raise incomes and facilitate the diversification. Given the importance of the marketing decision of selling later after the recovery of cereal prices from the harvest collapse, a discrete stochastic programming model was developed for three‐stage decision making. Then, the recent changes in the cotton economy and government fertilizer subsidies were analyzed along with the introduction of the new technology marketing of sorghum. Cotton and maize continue to dominate the economy but the combined sorghum technology marketing increases farmers’ incomes by 16% to 21% and eases the return to normal cotton prices, after the 2011 price spike, as well as the removal of the fertilizer subsidies.     

The Effects of Maize Market and Policy Reforms on Price Discovery and Competitiveness in Zimbabwe, 1991–1997

Abstract

Maize is Zimbabwe's staple food. An adequate supply of maize is essential to food security and domestic stability. A series of droughts and government mismanagement of the economy led to a maize production and food security problem in the 1980s. Zimbabwe's maize marketing system was transformed dramatically from a government monopoly to a competitive market system in which prices are determined by market forces in the 1990s. This paper examines the steps that Zimbabwe took towards maize market reform and the benefits of that reform. The movement to a competitive market led to formation of a commodity exchange to improve price discovery and increase price transparency. De-regulation has increased entry and competitiveness from new private sector hammer millers and traders. Farmers, millers, and traders face new profit opportunities and new price and financial risks that have increased management responsibilities. Consumers enjoy lower cost maize meal products and more convenient service. The benefits of the 1991–1997 reforms indicate what could be achieved in the long run if prices are determined by the market, rather than by the government.     

Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.     

Estimating the supply response of cotton and cereal crops in smallholder production systems: recent evidence from Mali

Cotton is one of the most important crops in West Africa and is a major catalyst of economic development in rural areas, but the sector has suffered from a decline in the world cotton price after 1999. This article exploits an unusual data set following 82 farmers over 14 years, from 1994 through 2007, to estimate a Nerlovian supply response model for cotton, maize, sorghum, and millet in long-term rotation. The resulting system of equations is estimated with two-stage least squares (2SLS), showing that this sample of Malian cotton producers have responded to prices in a relatively inelastic manner, with supply elasticities only about one-half of those estimated for producers in developed countries. Policy reforms could help producers respond more easily to prices changes, as well as to raise average productivity levels.     

Do Vietnamese upland farmers benefit from high world market prices for maize?

For rural households in the north of Vietnam, maize cropping is the main source of income. In the face of the world market price increases of the recent past, we analyze the regional marketing chain of this commodity qualitatively and econometrically investigating to what extent smallholder farmers in developing countries are affected by international price movements. Vietnamese maize markets are found to be well integrated. Recent price hikes have fully transmitted along the regional supply chain so that farmers profited. Nevertheless, adverse factors such as increasing input prices have neutralized these benefits resulting in a decline in real income of smallholders.     

Do farmers benefit from participating in specialty markets and cooperatives? The case of coffee marketing in Costa Rica1

Historically low prices in the conventional coffee market have caused financial and social hardship among coffee farmers. In the face of this crisis, specialty markets have attracted the attention of the international donor community. These market segments have shown consistent growth over the last decade and exhibit price premiums in international markets. Therefore, if higher prices are passed on to farmers, access to specialty markets could help to alleviate the crisis brought on by low prices in the conventional sector. The present study attempts to identify the factors that determine farmers' participation in specialized markets and whether participation in these markets leads to higher prices for farmers. A two-stage model is used to analyze farmers' marketing decisions and their effect on the prices received. This procedure allows us to control for the endogeneity bias introduced by the marketing choice. Our results indicate that farmers participating in the specialty coffee segment do in fact receive higher prices than those participating in conventional channels. Additionally, we find that participation in cooperatives has a positive impact on the probability that a farmer chooses to grow specialty coffee and analogously on the prices that they receive. Based on these results, it seems that efforts to increase participation in the specialty coffee segment and in cooperatives would help to lessen some of the hardships brought on by low prices in the conventional coffee sector.     

The transmission of world maize price to South African maize market: a threshold cointegration approach

This article seeks to provide an explanation for the relationship between domestic maize price in South Africa and world maize prices in order to evaluate comovement and transmission of world prices to domestic prices in sub‐Sahara African countries. This is done by comparing nested and nonnested models that capture different forms of nonlinearity in the price spread. Adopting a Bayesian approach that allows for comparison of models using Bayes factor, we found that the relationship between South African price and world price for maize indicates the presence of nonlinearity in price transmission with three regimes that is triggered by the price spread in previous period.     

Maize acreage response under differential prices in the Republic of Benin,West Africa

Price response of maize acreage in Benin was estimated with a particular emphasis on whether the prices were producer prices in rural markets or retail prices in urban markets. A second difference between prices was examined through a price adjustment model which takes into account the distortions caused by local units on maize price when one is concerned with the pricing system in the private marketing network relating rural and urban areas. Urban market price specification appeared to be the most relevant statistically in explaining acreage decisions in Mono province. Price elasticity of acreage was 0.445 in this area while its value, around 0.10, was not significant for Benin as a whole. The use of adjusted urban prices enabled an increase of 5.6% of the elasticity in Mono province. The urban vs. rural difference was apparent, but the coefficients of the price variable were not significant in equations with rural prices. The latter were not as reliable as those of the urban market of Dantokpa (in Cotonou city) collected by the Institute of Statistics (INSAE) and the GTZ project.     

Applying cointegration and error correction to measure trade linkages: maize prices in the United States and Mexico

The impact of U.S.‐grown maize on Mexican markets is a subject of heated debate, and is complicated by limited substitution between white and yellow maize as well as regional price differences within Mexico. This article improves on previous analyses using a detailed data set of white maize prices reported weekly in 11 states across Mexico from 1998 through 2005. Using cointegration analysis and the error‐correction model, we find that prices between the United States and Mexico do not share a common long‐run relationship. Within Mexico, prices in Michoacán and Oaxaca are only weakly related with prices in neighboring states, whereas prices in Sinaloa and Jalisco exert considerable influence on prices elsewhere in Mexico. We conclude that, despite North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), white maize prices in Mexico are determined by local conditions including particularly the degree of integration to other regions within Mexico.     

You get what you pay for: the link between price and food safety in Kenya

The lack of a reliably safe food supply in developing countries imposes both health and economic costs. Food safety is one of several dimensions of food quality that are typically unobservable at the time of purchase. Branding can overcome this information problem by allowing firms to build reputations based on the quality of their products. If a reputation for food safety is valued directly by consumers, or if food safety is correlated with other valued attributes, firms producing safer food should be able to use their brand equity to charge higher prices. In addition, firms with stronger brand equity have stronger incentives to meet food safety standards in order to maintain that equity. Using data from more than 900 maize flour samples representing 23 distinct brands in eastern and central Kenya, we explore the relationship between price and contamination with aflatoxin. Aflatoxin is a fungal toxin common in maize, groundnuts, and other crops around the world. We find a strong negative correlation between price and contamination at the brand level, consistent with the hypothesized positive relationship between brand equity and food quality.     

Are we overestimating the negative impact of higher food prices? Evidence from Ghana

Most studies of the welfare impact of higher food prices adopt Deaton's approach, based on the first‐order effect of prices changes using income and expenditure survey data. This paper explores the impact of higher maize and food prices in Ghana and considers the sensitivity of results to changes in several assumptions. If second‐order effects are included, incorporating household response to price changes, the welfare impact of food price increases is more positive, but only modestly so. However, if we assume that marketing margins are constant in real terms rather than proportional to prices, the welfare impact is substantially more positive. These findings highlight the need for more research on the behavior of marketing margins under volatile prices.     

Formation and adaptation of reference prices in grain marketing: an experimental study

This study aimed to explore how producers’ reference prices are formed and adapt over time, and how they affect marketing decisions. Results indicate that producers focus on three major variables to form their reference prices: the current market price, the highest price to date, and their expectation about price behavior. Further, they update their reference prices during the marketing season mainly in response to changes in current market prices, their own expectations about price behavior, and the general price trend. Finally, our findings suggest that producers’ marketing decisions are based on the spread between current market price and reference price, the general market trend and price expectation.     

Do Medium-scale Farms Improve Market Access Conditions for Zambian Smallholders?

This study is motivated by the need to understand how the rise of medium-scale farms in Africa is affecting small-scale farm households. Survey evidence over the past decade has shown a dramatic rise in the prevalence of ‘medium’ sized farms between 5 and 100 hectares, but smaller farms still constitute the vast majority of farms and rural households. Prior evidence highlights a co-evolution between the concentration of landholdings, surplus production volumes, and entry of larger traders into the market. Whether these changes tend to impact on smallholders negatively, crowding them out of markets, for example, or positively, potentially opening new marketing channels, is an empirical question. Using a multi-stage model for maize market participation in Zambia, we find that in areas where medium-scale farms are growing, even the smaller farms are becoming more likely to sell maize, more likely to sell to the private sector, more likely to sell to larger traders, and expected sales amongst sellers are higher. On balance, the growth of medium-scale farms and large-scale traders seems to have positive spillover effects on nearby smallholder marketing options.     

Energy‐milk price transmission at the product brand level

This article estimates the pass‐through rates between diesel fuel and retail milk prices at the product brand level. Using a random coefficient logit demand model and taking the direct and indirect impacts of energy prices, this research identifies changes in pass‐through rates before and after the great recession in 2008. Empirical results show that diesel prices significantly impacted the retail prices of milk products and are an important determinant of food price inflation. Pass‐through rates are estimated to range from 0.16 to approximately 0.60 through 2008 with an average of 0.22 for the whole period. Statistical tests indicate that pass‐through rates before June 2008 were significantly higher than after June 2008 when they dropped significantly to 0.04 to 0.17. Interestingly, private label brands have the lowest pass‐through rates, implying that compared to manufacturer brands, private label prices are more insulated from diesel price shocks.     

Modeling the Effects of Input Market Reforms on Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: A Case Study from Kenya

Kenya is one of the few countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa to experience an impressive rise in fertiliser use following a series of input market reforms in the early 1990s. Two major consequences of these reforms were declining fertiliser marketing margins and distances between farmers and fertiliser dealers. We quantify the effects of these changes on commercial fertiliser use and maize production in Kenya by estimating fertiliser demand and maize supply response functions using nationwide household survey data. Our results indicate that between 1997 and 2010, the estimated 27% reduction in real fertiliser prices that can be attributed to falling marketing margins associated with market reforms led to a 36% increase in nitrogen use on maize fields and a 9% increase in maize production resulting from both yield and acreage effects. On the other hand, decreasing distances to fertiliser retailers from the perspective of a given household did not appear to raise fertiliser use or maize supply, although a comparison across households using average distances over the panel indicate that those closer to retailers do apply more fertiliser on their maize fields.