Microeconomic modeling of parallel markets: The case of agricultural goods in the USSR

In a centrally planned economy, non-market-clearing prices fixed by the state cannot be used directly to estimate consumer behavior models. This paper represents an attempt to overcome this problem by utilizing prices in a parallel “free” market. An equilibrium model incorporating parallel markets is discussed and a demand curve arising from this model is estimated using data for the markets for meat and milk in the USSR. the price and income elasticities of demand for these goods are found to be significantly higher than those estimated for the United States.     

An equilibrium model of a second economy market in a centrally planned economy

We study a CPE in which an identical good is sold on the official market (OM) and a “second economy” market (SEM ). Planners set parameters. Managers divide inputs between markets to maximize expected utility of wealth. Consumers are expected utility maximizers who purchase the good on the OM or SEM. On the OM, excess demand exists at the non-Walrasian price; delivery date is stochastic. The SEM offers immediate availability. Our solution concept involves the rational expectations of managers, the consistency of consumers' decisions, and a market-clearing SEM. We solve for SEM price and supply and investigate various comparative statics.     

Feedback effects between credit ratings and financial markets

Credit rating agencies often make sharp adjustments in their pronouncements during times of stress in financial markets. These adjustments typically happen with a delay relative to shocks in market prices. Since prices convey information about what market participants are doing and thinking, it is likely that rating agencies take into account market prices when issuing their pronouncements.In order to understand the relationship between credit ratings and financial prices, we develop a model of debt roll-over in which rating agencies incorporate information publicly available in financial markets. We find that (1) rating agencies respond to market prices, i.e. nonfundamental price volatility can shift financing conditions from a low risk spread and high credit rating equilibrium to an equilibrium with high spread and low rating, and (2) rating agencies can anchor expectations about the equilibrium in financial markets, thus serving as an antidote to nonfundamental price volatility.     

A note on the speculative demand for money

In the General Theory, Keynes argued that expectations about future bond prices tend to be “sticky”. A rise in bond prices causes more investors to “join the bear brigade” and so increases the aggregate demand for money. Since Tobin's classic article on liquidity preference, this explanation of the downward sloping demand for money curve has largely disappeared from the literature. This note introduces sticky expectations into the Tobin framework. It shows that the existence of such stickiness does not necessarily cause the demand for money to be more elastic because investors have expectations about the variance of future bond prices as well as about their mean. A sufficient condition for a more elastic demand for money under sticky expectations is that the Pratt-Arrow coefficient of relative risk aversion be either constant or decreasing in wealth.     

Approximate equilibria in microeconomic rational expectations models

For general equilibrium models in which prices transmit information among asymmetrically informed traders, strict rational expectations approximate equilibria are defined. A state-dependent price function is an ε-equilibrium if, when agents use their own information and that conveyed by prices, aggregate excess demand (in each state of the world) does not exceed ε. For any positive ε, existence requires only very mild assumptions—continuity and compact support. Moreover, there are revealing ε-equilibria for all smooth economies satisfying a dimensionality condition. In an open neighborhood of this case, existence of maximally revealing ε-equilibria holds.     

Beyond Kyoto: backstop technologies and endogenous prices on CO2 permits and fossil fuels

This paper analyses the markets for fossil fuels given that the limits the Kyoto Protocol sets on CO₂ emissions from Annex B countries extend beyond 2008–2012. A forward-looking model with endogenous prices for fossil fuels is applied under different assumptions concerning the technological progress for a carbon-free backstop technology. Both the time-profile of the international permit price needed for the Kyoto Forever targets as well as the implications through reduced demand and lower producer prices for fossil fuels are calculated. The permit price has to rise at least up to 2030 in order to fulfil the emission targets. From then on the necessary permit price shows different future developments, dependent on when the backstop technology starts to replace oil. Since changes in the availability of the backstop technology shift the time-profile of the permit price, the loss of petroleum wealth for oil and gas producers varies between the scenarios, but is never more than 20%. Findings indicate that the reduction in gas revenues in OECD-Europe after the introduction of the targets amounts to a yearly loss of 0.01–0.02% of their total GNP for half a century. The reduction in oil revenues for OPEC is comparable to an annual loss of 2.9–5.4% of their GNP over a period of sixty years.     

Price taking behavior and trading in options

Equilibrium prices of options are arbitrage prices in economies in which prices are determined endogenously and all agents are price takers. This paper shows that the price taking assumption in options' markets is unreasonable because a small agent can make huge gains by not being a price taker.     

Estimating a socially optimal water price for irrigation versus an environmentally optimal water price through the use of Geographical Information Systems and Social Accounting Matrices

This article develops a method for establishing water prices and their effects in order to provide policy makers an environmentally and socially optimal range of regional prices for irrigation water. Two prices are determined. The “environmentally optimal price” of water is defined as the one that internalizes the environmental costs generated by agricultural consumption. The “social optimally price” of water is defined as the one that maximizes levies on water for agriculture without affecting the regional economy. The environmentally optimal price is calculated with an economic model built over a Geographical Information System (GIS) that allows the economic quantification and valuation of the environmental cost of water in different basins. The optimal price is calculated with a demand curve for irrigation water introduced into a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to observe if the regional economy can accept higher prices without affecting the regional GDP. Potential water prices are established, ranging from prices that minimize the negative impact in the regional economy to those that totally internalize the environmental cost of water.     

Further Evidence from Survey Data on Australian Manufacturing Price Changes*

Three data sets from two different quarterly surveys have been used in estimating six standard models of price change behaviour. Results for Total Manufacturing Industry, for all three data sets, show prices respond to both actual cost movements and commodity market excess demand conditions. For most ASIC two-digit industries, prices respond rapidly to actual cost movements, and for many industries they also respond directly to excess demand conditions. No single excess demand measure is appropriate for all industries. The magnitude of orders and inventories influences is very small, but capacity utilization contributions seem far from trivial. Industry results are frequently sensitive to the survey used and/or to the method used to weight individual firm's responses.     

Gains From Price Rigidity

This paper shows that there are substantial gains from price rigidity in an imperfectly competitive economy. Firms can increase their profits by agreeing some markets as markets of long-term contracts, of which prices are determined in advance to other spot market prices. Although they determine prices non-cooperatively in both markets, the mutual commitment making some markets' prices predetermined induces a price–price spiral between firms, which results in substantial gains for both firms. These gains outweigh the cost of inflexibility arising from price rigidity even though demand fluctuation is large and marginal cost is increasing.
JEL Classification Numbers: E30, E32.     

Increased price flexibility and output stability

Simulation results of previous authors show an ambiguous effect of increased price flexibility on output stability in models incorporating a Mundell inflation effect on aggregate demand. This paper interprets their results in an analytically tractable model with imperfect, goods-market competition. To be destabilizing, increased flexibility must increase the “hump” of the price level's response to demand shocks. Output variability is always reduced by increasing the size of the flex-price sector and sometimes reduced by shortening contract lengths in the fix-price sector.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

Demand, supply, and their interaction on markets, as seen from the perspective of evolutionary economic theory

Since the time of Marshall economists have used the constructs of demand and supply curves in their explanation and analyses of how markets determine prevailing prices and the allocation of resources among different lines of economic activity. Today almost all expositions and interpretations of price theory take a neoclassical perspective. This paper develops an interpretation of demand and supply curves and their interaction on markets that is more compatible with the general viewpoint of evolutionary economic theory.     

Forecasting demand for electricity in Maryland: An econometric approach

Most of the models for forecasting demand for energy are based on simple extrapolations of past trends or on a simple regression equation with price of the energy and the stock of appliances as explanatory variables. In this paper, an attempt has been made to derive static and dynamic multiple regression equations from economic theory of consumption and production (Section II). Historical data were fitted to these theoretical constructs to test the equations in terms of econometric theory and forecast the demand according to “higher order conditional interval forecasts”. The residential demand for electricity is a function of its price, price of its substitute, per capita income and a lagged demand variable for dynamic adjustment of actual demand to equilibrium demand for electricity. The forecasts of residential demand to 1990 are based on projections of exogenous variables such as residential price of electricity, per capita income and the estimated long run elasticity of demand (Section III). The nonresidential demand for electricity is a function of employment in that sector, sectoral prices of electricity and the lagged sectoral demand. The forecasts of nonresidential electricity demand are also based on projections of its independent variables (Section IV). The last section converts the total demand for electricity into the required generating capacities and juxtaposes them against the estimates of expected supplies available from the forecasts of the utilities. The paper concludes that the eighties will be faced with excess supply of electricity in Maryland, in case the assumptions of projections of independent variables hold good. The misallocation of resources inherent in such excess supplies could be avoided if realistic scenerios of future demand, as attempted in this paper, could be predicted.     

Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under free float using a small-scale macroeconomic model

This study analyzes the monetary transmission mechanism in the Turkish economy following the switch to free float under informal inflation targeting scheme in the aftermath of the February 2001 crisis. A small-scale macroeconomic model is simulated using equations for output gap, exchange rate, sub-items of inflation, short-term policy rate, government borrowing rate, “Embi+ Turkey” and inflation expectations. The preliminary results indicate that, despite some slight departures, both static and dynamic simulations capture the dynamics of the fundamental economic variables. The results also show that at a time of weak domestic demand, output gap has been seemingly less significant in determining inflation. Furthermore, risk premium as measured by “Embi+ Turkey” has a high explanatory power in shaping government borrowing rate and exchange rate. Finally, forward-looking component of inflation has been effective in determining non-administered prices.     

Price dispersion in oligopoly

In the world of perfect markets consumers are assumed to respond instantly to every small price change. However, in the real world it is not clear that any small price change will have a great impact on consumers' decisions and that, regardless of their habit, they will shift from one brand to the other. The purpose of this paper is to examine oligopolistic price competition under the assumption that consumers are non-responsive to small price differences. The paper proves the existence of equilibrium in which firms do not necessarily charge the same price; however some of the firms charge their monopolistic price and others charge prices close to that price.     

Economics and emotion: Institutions matter

In two different types of institutions, English and Dutch auctions, we collect heart rate data, a proxy for emotion, to test hypotheses based on findings in neural science about the effect of emotion on economic behavior. We first demonstrate that recording heart rates does not distort prices in these auctions. Next we ask if knowledge of the intensity of a participant's emotional state improves our ability to predict price setting behavior beyond predictions of price based on usual economic variables. Our answer is that “institutions matter.” In the Dutch (English) auctions we find (no) evidence that knowledge of emotional intensity affects our ability to predict price setting behavior. We then entertain the proposition that the cardiac system is an information system that processes economic events. We are able to show that this hypothesis is consistent with our observations and furthermore that the processes differ across institutions.     

Rational Expectations is not Generally Valid for Econometric Models: Evidence from Stock Market Data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.     

Imperfect common knowledge and the information value of prices

Summary. When economic agents have diverse private information on the fundamentals of the economy, prices may serve as a poor aggregator of this private information. We examine the information value of prices in a monopolistic competition setting that has become standard in the New Keynesian macroeconomics literature. We show that public information has a disproportionate effect on agents’ decisions, crowds out private information, and thereby has the potential to degrade the information value of prices. This effect is strongest in an economy with keen price competition. Monetary policy must rely on less informative signals of the underlying cost conditions.Received: 6 November 2003, Revised: 19 November 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: E31, E32, E58.This paper supersedes the discussion in the first half of our longer paper that circulated under the title “Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models”. We thank Andy Filardo, Marvin Goodfriend, Nobu Kiyotaki, John Moore, Stephen Morris and Lars Svensson for advice and comments at various stages of the project, and to Herakles Polemarchakis, Roko Aliprantis and an anonymous referee for their helpful comments and guidance. The views are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the BIS. The second author acknowledges support from the U.K. ESRC under grant RES 000220450. Correspondence to: H.S. Shin