Searching for value relevance of book value and earnings: a case of premium versus discount firms

We examine the premium/discount firm characteristic that fundamentally affects the value relevance of two key accounting line items, earnings and book values. We argue that from the perspective of both the residual income and option-style valuation models, the relative valuation roles of earnings and book values differ fundamentally between firms that trade at a premium vis-à-vis discount to book value. We find that book values play a significantly more important role in equity valuation than earnings when firms trade at a discount. We also find that other known influential conditions, such as the sign of earnings (Collins et al. in Acc Rev 74(1):29–61, 1999) or the relative levels of earnings and book value (Burgstahler and Dichev in Acc Rev 72(2):187–215, 1997), become inconsequential when the premium/discount condition of the firm is controlled for. The discovered relationships between the relative valuation roles of book values and earnings and the discount/premium characteristics of the firm are robust to the effect of time, information environment and the industry of the firm.     

The efficiency of the buy-write strategy: Evidence from Australia

We examine the performance of the buy-write option strategy (BWS) on the Australian Stock Exchange and analyse whether such an investment opportunity violates the efficient market hypothesis on the basis of its risk and returns. This study investigates the relationship between buy-write portfolios returns and past trading volume and other fundamental financial factors including dividend yield, firm size, book to market ratio, earnings per share (EPS), price earnings ratio and value stocks within these portfolios. We also test the profitability of the buy-write strategy during bull and bear markets. Consistent with the literature, it is observed that BWS offers superior risk adjusted returns for low levels of out-of-moneyness and contrary evidence is observed for deeper out-of-money portfolios. Consistent with a preference for options with a maturity of around 3 months in Australia, this research shows that quarterly rebalancing periods offer better returns for the BWS.     

内部薪酬差距与公司价值——基于生命周期理论的新探索

本文以我国2005-2014年沪深A股上市公司为样本,研究了公司生命周期对内部薪酬差距与公司价值关系的影响。结果发现:(1)总体上,公司内部薪酬差距有利于公司价值,支持了锦标赛理论;(2)结合生命周期考察,内部薪酬差距对公司价值的提升作用在成长期最强,在衰退期最弱,即随着公司生命周期的推移,内部薪酬差距对公司价值的提升作用逐渐减弱;(3)进一步的作用机制分析显示,管理层对于经营绩效影响的重要性以及员工对于公平感的需求是生命周期产生影响的重要机制。在综合得分判别法、留存收益率判别法、企业-行业增长率判别法等多项生命周期度量方法下,上述结论保持稳定。本文的研究为理解内部薪酬差距对公司价值的作用提供了一个崭新视角,也为不同生命周期阶段公司薪酬计划的制定提供了一定理论基础。     

Industry Information Transfers: The Effect of Information Environment

This study extends the information environment theory of Atiase (1985) that suggests an inverse relation between the information available about a firm and the security price reaction to its release of earnings. Non-announcing firms' security price responses are found to be inversely related to their market value but directly related to the number of peer firm articles appearing in the Wall Street Journal and the historical earnings correlations within their industry. The results suggest that information environment affects the security price relevance of a firm's own and its peer firms' earnings.     

The cross section of cashflow volatility and expected stock returns

I show that historical cashflow volatility is negatively related to future returns cross-sectionally. The negative association is large; economically meaningful; long-lasting up to five years; robust to known return-informative effects of size, value, price and earnings momentums and illiquidity; and extends to both systematic and idiosyncratic cashflow volatilities. Using the standard deviations of cashflow to sales and of cashflow to book equity as proxies for cashflow volatility, the least volatile decile portfolio outperforms the most volatile decile portfolio by 13% a year relative to the Fama–French four factors. The cashflow volatility effect is closely related to the idiosyncratic return volatility effect documented in Ang et al. [Ang, A., Hodrick, R.J., Xing, Y. and Zhang, X. “The cross-section of volatility and expected returns.” Journal of Finance, 51 (2006), 259–299.]. However, in portfolios simultaneously sorted on both cashflow and return volatilities, and in cross sectional regressions of returns at the firm level, these two effects neither drive out nor dominate each other. While the pricing of idiosyncratic cashflow volatility represents an anomaly against the traditional asset pricing theories, the pricing of historical cashflow uncertainty sheds light on potential fundamental risks embodied in the Fama–French HML and SMB factors.     

Exchange rate risk in the US stock market

Kolari et al. (2008) show that exchange rate risk measured by contemporaneous exchange rate changes is priced in the US stock market. However, by construction, their exchange rate risk factor has a strong correlation with the size factor, and their exchange rate sensitivity portfolios have a strong factor structure. To test whether their results are spurious, we carry out two sets of tests. The first set is motivated by Lewellen et al. (2010), where the second set is motivated by the voluminous literature which suggests that stock returns are heavy-tailed (e.g. Rachev and Mitnik, 2000). Different from Kolari et al. (2008), we find that exchange rate risk measured by contemporaneous exchange rate changes is not priced in the US stock market if we use industry portfolios which do not have a strong factor structure as the testing assets or if we use more robust methods to estimate firm-specific exchange rate sensitivity. Our findings therefore suggest that researchers take a new perspective on exchange rate risk.     

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IN RELATION TO QUALITY,EARNINGS, DIVIDENDS,FIRM SIZE,LEVERAGE, AND RETURN ON EQUITY

This paper examines the risk-return performance of portfolios formed from S&P quality rankings over the time period 1970–1979. In addition, the risk-return characteristics of the portfolios are compared with performance as measured by fundamental data regarding earnings, dividends, firm size, leverage, and return on equity. The results suggest that the S&P quality rankings are closely correlated to risk as measured by the variability of returns and earnings changes, but the rankings are not correlated with the variability of dividend changes. The quality rankings are not uniformly correlated with mean portfolio returns or mean dividend changes, nor is the relationship between quality and mean earnings changes strong. Finally, quality rankings are related to firm size and return on equity. However, relationships between quality and leverage are discernible only at the extremes.     

Cross-sectional Variation in Price Anticipation of Earnings

Estimates of the earnings response coefficient (ERC) can be improved by including leading returns in return-earnings models. This improvement in estimated ERC can be used to measure price anticipation of earnings. It is posited that this price anticipation is related to the information environment of a firm. Theories and prior empirical research pertaining to the information environment (e.g. Bhushan, 1989; Frankel et al., 1994) are used to identify three variables, breadth of trading, capital issues and volatility of returns, which potentially determine the extent of price anticipation of earnings. The empirical tests suggest that the tendency of prices to lead earnings is negatively related to thin trading and is positively related to the propensity for external financing and return volatility in the year immediately prior to that to which the anticipated earnings pertain.     

Opaque financial reports and R2: Revisited

In this study, we revisit the link between R² (synchronicity) and earnings management (opacity) because of the importance of the ongoing debate on the relation between idiosyncratic risk and earnings management in the finance and accounting literatures. Hutton et al. (J. Financial Economics, 2009) provide evidence of a positive link between opacity and R². They interpret their finding to imply that firms with high R² (high synchronicity) have less firm-specific information impounded in their stock price. Our results for this relationship fail to unequivocally support the results reported in Hutton et al. (2009). We show that their results are not only time variant but also not robust to the alternative empirical technique recommended for panel data by Petersen (2009) and alternative estimation of discretionary accruals adjusted for firm performance prescribed by Kothari et al. (2005). We also find no support for a convex relation between idiosyncratic risk and opacity. The findings documented in this study substantially revise some of Hutton et al.'s findings in this important and growing area of research.     

Cash from operations and earnings management in Korea

Our study investigates the relationship between the operating performances of Korean industrial firms and the behavior of discretionary accruals during the period 1994-1997. We hypothesize that the degree of earnings management will depend on the firm operating performances. We construct 10 “cash from operations (CFO)” portfolios to test if there are systematic differences in discretionary accruals across portfolios.Four test methods (a mean accrual test, a correlation test, a regression analysis, and a sign-change test) are used to investigate if operating performances affect discretionary accruals differently. We compare three accrual estimation approaches (two discretionary accruals and total accruals) in testing the earnings management hypotheses.The results support the hypothesis that Korean industrial firms manage earnings. When operating performance is poor, the firms tend to choose income-increasing strategies. In addition, when operating performance is extremely poor, some firms tend to take a big bath, while some of the exceptionally well-performing firms tend to select income-decreasing strategies.     

Financial reporting quality and idiosyncratic return volatility

Campbell et al. (2001) document that firms’ stock returns have become more volatile in the U.S. since 1960. We hypothesize and find that deteriorating earnings quality is associated with higher idiosyncratic return volatility over 1962–2001. These results are robust to controlling for (i) inter-temporal changes in the disclosure of value-relevant information, sophistication of investors and the possibility that earnings quality can be informative about future cash flows; (ii) stock return performance, cash flow operating performance, cash flow variability, growth, leverage and firm size; and (iii) new listings, high-technology firms, firm-years with losses, mergers and acquisitions and financial distress.     

LOW PRICE, PRICE-EARNINGS RATIO, MARKET VALUE, AND ABNORMAL STOCK RETURNS

In this research, the individual and net effects of low price, low price/earnings (P/E) ratio, and small size on the risk-adjusted excess returns are investigated for the fourth quarter of 1975 to the fourth quarter of 1985. The entire sample is divided into quintiles, and the resulting portfolios are rebalanced at the end of each quarter. Low price, low P/E ratio, and small value portfolios did experience greater excess returns. By applying the experimental control technique, the net effect of stock price is significant after controlling the size. Similarly, the net effect of the market value is significant after the stock price is controlled. The net effect of the P/E ratio is insignificant after controlling either the stock price or the market value.     

商业信用与合作型客户关系的构建——基于提供给大客户应收账款的经验证据

利用我国上市公司前5名应收账款欠款人信息以及前5名大客户信息的披露数据,本文较为直接地考察了企业是否以及如何利用应收账款的产品质量担保功能与大客户构建合作型客户关系。研究结果表明,客户集中度越高,企业提供给大客户的信用政策越宽松,即应收账款金额越多,信用期限越长;进一步研究发现,在与主要客户地理位置相似度较低的企业、处于竞争性行业的企业以及营商环境较好的地区,上述两者之间的正相关关系有所增强。最后,本文发现,在与大客户构建合作型客户关系时,企业向这些大客户提供的应收账款越多,企业的业绩越好。     

Management earnings forecast and financial statement complexity

We investigate the manager’s earnings forecasting strategy when financial statement complexity becomes a significant issue in capital markets. We suppose that complexity in financial statements arises from complexity of firm’s business transactions (business complexity) or complexity of associated reporting standards (reporting complexity) as mentioned in Guay et al. (2016). We find that a manager’s forecasting strategy depends on whether financial statement complexity stems from business or reporting complexity. Specifically, we indicate, among other observations, that managers who initially announced optimistic earnings forecasts will revise and release pessimistic earnings forecasts when financial statement complexity stems from reporting complexity.     

Interlock Concentration and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Value Implications of Interlock

From the perspective of information commonalities among firms with director interlock relationships, this study mainly investigates the outcomes of earnings forecasts by analysts who choose to concentrate on interlocked firms (analysts following both a firm and its interlocked partner firm in their research portfolio). Using interlocked A‐share firms listed in the Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2008 to 2013 as samples, we empirically find that analysts who concentrate on interlocked firms produce more accurate earnings forecasts than analysts who do not. In additional analysis, we also find that analysts with an interlock concentration provide superior earnings forecast quality for other non‐interlocked firms in their research portfolios. Finally, through examining the market reaction to interlocked firms, we find that analysts with an interlock concentration provide new information and improve information efficiency for the capital market.     

Regulation Fair Disclosure and analysts’ reliance on earnings announcements

Regulation Fair Disclosure prohibits corporations from selectively disclosing material information to groups of favored analysts and institutional investors. If information previously provided is excluded by the new regulation from analysts’ information set, it is plausible that the relative importance of the other information, such as earnings announcements, which remains could increase (Arya et al., 2005). The purpose of this study is to investigate whether analysts become more reliant on firm earnings announcements in revising their forecasts after implementation of the regulation. Our empirical results show that, after the regulation, more analysts issue forecasts immediately after earnings announcements. In addition, analysts’ earnings forecasts tend to converge more after observing earnings announcements in the post-regulation period. These results, in conjunction with the finding of higher overall level of forecast errors and dispersion, indicate that earnings announcements become more important information sources in the post regulation period. These findings suggest that analysts are more reliant on earnings announcements and there is an increase in analyst herding as a result of Regulation Fair Disclosure.     

Earnings Surprise "Materiality" as Measured by Stock Returns

Ranked earnings surprise portfolios formed from First Call files for 1992–97 are used to assess the annual earnings surprise magnitude for an individual firm sufficient to expect a "significant market reaction." We find that, for an individual firm, the maximum probability of a gain from trading on prior knowledge of any surprise magnitude is .622. The lack of probable trading gains is due to the S–shaped surprise/return relation and the large variance of returns for a given magnitude of surprise. In turn, we find that the S–shape is related empirically to the dispersion of analyst forecasts. Thus, factors underlying dispersion differences are related to the importance or "materiality" of earnings surprise as measured by stock returns and explain at least part of the S–shaped surprise/return relation.     

Earnings management in IPOs: Post-engagement third-party mitigation or issuer signaling?

Initial public offering (IPO) firms typically hire auditors, underwriters, and attorneys to assist in the IPO process. Many firms that take the IPO route are also backed by venture capitalists. In the extant literature, these four specialists (auditors, underwriters, attorneys, and venture capitalists) are termed third-party certifiers. In this study, we examine 3900 IPOs from 1985 to 2005 and document a significant negative and robust correlation between IPO firm earnings management and the presence of prestigious third-party certifiers. Next, we test if this correlation is driven by (1) IPO firms attempting to signal firm quality or (2) third-party certifiers mitigating earnings management in the issuing firm. Using a two-stage multivariate model, we find empirical support for the signaling hypothesis — IPO firms self-select prestigious certifiers for IPOs. We do not find support for post-engagement mitigation hypothesis — after engagement, third-party certifiers do not significantly impact earnings management in IPOs.     

Misspecification of capital asset pricing: Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values

This study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one-period capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient. In particular, portfolios based on firm size or earnings/price (E/P) ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the CAPM. Furthermore, the ‘abnormal’ returns persist for at least two years. This persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency. Rather, the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified. However, the data also reveals that an E/P effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect; the firm size effect largely subsumes the E/P effect. Thus, while the E/P anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately, the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors, and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than E/P ratios.     

Optimal versus suboptimal choices of accounting expertise on audit committees and earnings quality

By employing a Heckman two-stage selection model, we identify whether employing a financial expert with or without accounting expertise on the audit committee is optimal and how earnings quality varies across these optimal and suboptimal choices. Using four earnings quality measures (informativeness, timely loss recognition, earnings persistence, and accruals quality), we find no differences in earnings quality between firms optimally choosing an expert with or without accounting expertise, consistent with Demsetz and Lehn (J Polit Econ 93:1155–1177, 1985) and others who argue that when firms optimize their choice (i.e., accounting expertise), there should be no difference across the characteristic (i.e., earnings quality) being examined. We do find, however, earnings quality is significantly higher for firms that optimally choose an accounting expert relative to firms that choose (with/without accounting expertise) suboptimally. Finally, firms suboptimally choosing an accounting expert exhibit no improvement, or even lower earnings quality, than firms that optimally choose no accounting expert. Our results provide important evidence of the impact accounting expertise has on earnings quality when considering the firm’s choice.