Cash-in-advance constraints in the diamond overlapping generations model: neutrality and optimality of monetary policies

This paper is a study of money in overlapping generations modelswith cash-in-advances constraints. We first offer a brief reviewof different features of the cash-in-advance constraint. Thenwe propose a general formulation and study the neutrality ofmoney. We show that both neutrality and equilibrium dynamicsdepend on the form of the cash-in-advance constraint. We thenshow that optimal intergenerational resources sharing can beimplemented through monetary transfers. Finally, we find thatthe Chicago Rule is implied by the optimal monetary.     

The Effects of Inflation in a Small Open Economy with Durability in Consumption

This paper explores the dynamic effects of inflation in a small open economy when consumption exhibits certain degree of durability. With labor/leisure choice, and money introduced through a cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption expenditure, it is demonstrated that higher inflation reduces the steady state level of employment, investment, output and consumption. The country runs a current account surplus, despite the fall in output. Consistent with empirical evidence, durable consumption exhibits initial excess volatility. Numerical calibration shows that the steady state real effects of inflation are very significant in this model.     

Should We Be Afraid of Friedman's Rule?

Should one think of zero nominal interest rates as an undesirable liquidity trap or as the desirable Friedman rule? I use three different frameworks to discuss this issue. First, I restate H. L. Cole and N. Kocherlakota's (1998, Fed. Res. Bank Minn. Quart. Rev., Spring, 2–10) analysis of Friedman's rule: short run increases in the money stock—whether through issuing spending coupons, open market operations, or foreign exchange intervention—change nothing as long as the money stock shrinks in the long run. Second, two simple Keynesian models of the inflationary process with a zero lower bound on nomianl interest rates imply either that deflationary spirals should be common or that a policy close to the Friedman rule and thus some deflation is optimal. Finally, a formal baby-sitting coop model implies multiple equilibria, but does not support the injection of liquidity to restore the good equilibrium, in contrast to P. Krugman (1998, Slate, August 13). J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 261–303. CenER, Tilburg University; Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany; and CEPR Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E31, E41, E50, E51, E52.     

Some arguments for (moderately) capital-intensive development,even in labour-abundant nations

This essay suggests that there may be good reasons why some labour-abundant developing nations prefer capital-intensive economic activities. In developing nations where large amounts of time and investment would be required to achieve full employment of their labour, policy-makers may do better to seek a capital-intensive development programme that increases labour productivity, inspires technological change, and, through rapidly increasing national income, increases the demand for labour in the long run by more than a labour-intensive approach would. A diagrammatic representation is presented. The suggestion is offered that a ‘moderate’ capital-intensive strategy, in which factor prices are maintained ‘just’ — rather than ‘much’ — different from their scarcity values, should encourage labour-augmenting technological change.     

Dynamic consistency and monopoly

A wide variety of papers study the time consistency issues and commitment problems associated with imperfectly competitive durable goods manufacturers who sell their output. Using a simple two-period model the authors show that this sort of commitment problem may occur even if the monopolist produces non-durable output. The model assumes consumers maximize their utility through the choice of a non-durable consumption good and saving through an asset that provides future returns and consumption flow. The analysis indicates that non-durable goods manufacturers with market power will wish to announce future prices that are sub-optimal (dynamically inconsistent) when the period is reached due to the impact on consumers' wealth constraint and current purchasing behavior. Thus, the so-called durable-goods monopoly commitment problem may also occur in non-durable goods industries. The model suggests that any type of intertemporal linkage may lead to time consistency and commitment problems for imperfectly competitive firms.     

The Leontief paradox in a multi-country setting: Comments

Conclusions Apart from the commodity mix effect, exports, imports consumption and production respond identically to changes in relative capital endowment, regardless of whether one refers to physical capital, human capital or total capital. Hence, when allowing technology and product mix to vary, one cannot distinguish between export goods and import goods in terms of capital intensity. These conclusions are still in agreement with Hirsch [1977, p. 418] who argues “Poor countries export low capital-intensive and import high capital-intensive goods, while rich countries import low capital-intensive and export high capital-intensive goods.” The only response that is significantly different is due to the commodity mix effect.     

Unique Equilibrium in a Dynamic Model of Speculative Attacks

A main challenge of understanding currency crises is explaining their puzzling timing. Most “second generation” currency crisis models are static models with multiple equilibria, and exogenous shifts between equilibria are interpreted as shifts of sentiments on financial markets leading to crises. This article develops a dynamic, continuous time model with a payoff structure similar to second generation models. We derive endogenous conditions under which shifts in sentiment occur over time, characterise them in terms the strategic risk associated with speculation, and provide comparative statics. Moreover, we show that the findings correspond almost exactly to the implications of global game currency crisis models, which are often used for equilibrium selection in the static context.     

Endogenous credit-card acceptance in a model of precautionary demand for money

A credit-card acceptance decision by retailers is embedded intoa simple model of precautionary demand for money. The modelgives a new explanation for how the use of credit-cards candiffer so widely across countries. Retailers’ propensityto accept cards reduces the need for buyers to hold cash asthe chance of a stock-out (of cash) is reduced. When retailersmake their decision with respect to credit-card acceptance theydo not take into account the effect that decision has on othersellers. This externality generates multiple equilibria oversome portions of the parameter space.     

货币市场基金影响货币流通速度吗

货币流通速度不仅受实体经济影响,而且受虚拟经济影响,本文运用实证分析方法探讨货币市场基金对货币流通速度是否产生影响,结果表明货币市场基金收益率变动是货币流通速度变动的格兰杰原因,两者正相关,可根据货币市场基金收益率和一年期国债收益率预测货币流通速度,货币政策实施效果受货币流通速度影响,管理者可通过调整货币市场基金政策稳定货币流通速度。     

Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime switching model

This paper considers the properties of Markov switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We discuss possible solution concepts for MSRE models, distinguishing between stationary and bounded equilibria. For the case of models with one variable we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniqueness of a bounded equilibrium and we relate this condition to an alternative, the "generalized Taylor principle," suggested by Davig and Leeper. We provide examples of models with multiple bounded and multiple stationary equilibria which suggest that it might be more difficult to rule out non-fundamental equilibria in MSRE models than in the single regime case where the Taylor principle is known to guarantee local uniqueness.     

Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates: Gesell’s currency carry tax vs. Eisler’s parallel virtual currency

Despite the zero lower bound on the short nominal interest rate in Japan having become a binding constraint, conventional monetary policy in Japan, in the form of generalised open market purchases of government securities of all maturities, has never been pushed to the limit where all outstanding government debt and all current and anticipated future government deficits are (or are confidently expected to be) monetised. Open market purchases of private securities can create serious governance problems. Two ways of overcoming the zero lower bound constraint have been proposed. The first is Gesell’s carry tax on currency. The second is Eisler’s proposal for the unbundling of the medium of exchange/means of payment function and the numéraire function of money through the creation of a parallel virtual currency. This raises the fundamental issue of who chooses or what determines the numéraire used in private wage and price contracts—an issue that is either not addressed in the literature or addressed incorrectly. On balance, Gesell’s proposal appears to be the more robust of the two.     

On the existence of single-price equilibria in a matching model with divisible money and production cost

The present paper investigates Zhou's (1999) money search model, where money is divisible, agents can hold any amount of money and production of goods is costly, and presents a sufficient condition, expressed in terms of exogenously given parameters, for the existence of single-price equilibria.     

FACTORS INHIBITING DEFLATIONARY BIAS IN CURRENCY BOARD ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE COLONIAL ERA

A traditional criticism of currency boards is that they impart a deflationary bias to growing economies. Three factors, however, may inhibit the bias: increases in the velocity of money; increases in the monetary base, which under a currency board occur only through balance-of-payments surpluses; and increases in the money multiplier. This article investigates each of the factors in Fiji, Ghana, Jamaica and Malaya over various periods near the end of the colonial era. Except in Malaya, where the money multiplier declined, all helped prevent deflationary outcomes. In broad terms, growth in the monetary base was the most important.     

Consumption,income distribution and taxation: Keynes' fiscal policy

The General Theory argued that income distribution affected consumption. Greater income equality put more money into the hands of people with higher MPCs, leading to increased consumption; and greater inequality had the reverse impact. Yet, of the six objective factors that Keynes identified as affecting consumption, only distribution has failed to become part of mainstream consumption theory. This paper examines the reasons why this is so, and then develops a model incorporating the after-tax distribution into a Keynesian consumption function. Empirical tests of this model find that after-tax income distribution is a significant determinant of consumption.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Inflationary Shocks with Durable and Non-Durable Consumption

In this paper we show that inflation, both in the short and long run, negatively affects durable and non-durable consumption and output, and positively influences the current account balance. In particular, the impact of inflation is more pronounced on durable relative to non-durable goods. Using quarterly data from Canada, the UK and the USA, we demonstrate that these findings are consistent and robust across different econometric specifications. An open economy model with durable and non-durable consumption, households with labor/leisure choice and money introduced through cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on consumption expenditure alone could meaningfully explain these empirical observations. Our empirical findings of non-neutral and negative effects of inflation on real growth are significant for many economic models in the asset pricing literature that support a negative co-movement of stock prices and expected inflation. Moreover, such positive inflation premium in our model could provide economic explanation for a positive slope of the nominal term structure in the data.     

Identity and the Self-Reinforcing Effects of Norm Compliance

When making political and economic decisions (e.g., voting, donating money to a cause), individuals consider the expectations of groups with which they identify. These expectations are injunctive norms, shared beliefs about appropriate behavior for identity group members, and individuals' choices reflect trade-offs between adherence to these norms and other preferences. We show that when those who identify moderately/strongly with the group pay a cost as a consequence of avoiding a norm violation, they subsequently view the norms as stronger than those that paid no cost. This is evident in their greater willingness to pay an additional cost to punish/reward other group members for violating/complying with the norm. They also view other norms associated with the identity as stronger. In this way, costly norm compliance may be self-reinforcing.     

Intermarket network externalities and competition: An application to the media industry

Intermarket network externalities occur when the utility of a good produced in a given industry varies with the size of the demand for a good produced in another. A particularly significant example of this phenomenon is provided by the interaction between the media and advertising industries. Media consumers vary according to their willingness to pay for a media good, which depends on the advertising volume. In the advertising market, advertisers vary according to their willingness to pay for an advertisement, which also depends positively on the audience reached. We model a situation of competition between two content providers who are rivals in both the media and advertising industries, choosing simultaneously the newspaper prices and the advertising rates. We characterize the equilibria of the game and explore how they depend on audience attitudes towards advertising. Our main finding is that two-sided interactions may induce exit by one of the media companies from either only the advertising market or both markets.     

Effects of Patent Protection on Optimal Corporate Income and Consumption Taxes in an R&D‐Based Growth Model

Does reducing the corporate income tax accompanied by an increase in the consumption tax to meet the government's budget constraint improve welfare? To respond, we examine the welfare‐maximizing corporate income tax and consumption tax rates in an R&D‐based growth model under the constraint that the government's budget is balanced at each point of time. Further, we consider how welfare‐maximizing tax rates change as patent protection becomes stronger, as seen in many countries. The results show that as patent protection becomes stronger, the corporate income tax rate should be higher and the consumption tax rate should be lower. This implies that under stronger patent protection, recovering production at the expense of innovation by raising corporate income tax and reducing consumption tax improves welfare.     

Money,Velocity, and the Stock Market

This paper provides a study of the relationship between money growth variability, velocity, and the stock market, using recent advances in financial econometrics. We estimate a trivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, BEKK model to quantify the effects of financial market and money supply instability. We investigate the robustness of the results to different definitions of money using monthly Divisia indices for the United States from the Center for Financial Stability (CFS). Empirical evidence supports significance of financial market and money supply volatility, and we conclude that Friedman’s money supply volatility hypothesis is alive and well.     

Is It True Love? Altruism Versus Exchange in Time and Money Transfers

This paper investigates what motivates intergenerational inter-vivos time and money transfers. We consider a model in which transfers may be driven not only by altruism, but also by exchange considerations. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe to discriminate between the two motives. We show that both if we consider money transfers from parents to children and time transfers from children to parents, the empirical evidence rejects pure altruism in favor of exchange. This result has important policy implications on the effectiveness of formal care provision as a substitute for informal care and on the impact of taxation on transfers.